Match Thread Coventry City vs Sunderland (H) - Coventry Building Society Arena - Sat 31st October (3pm KO) (21 Viewers)

[Skyblueabo1111]

We don’t need 10 home wins to stay up.

That would be winning more than half our home games…?

Going to probably need minimum of 38, can't see us picking up many away.


Survival Success RateHistorical Context
43+ points100%Absolute safety. No team has ever gone down with 43.
40 points90%Only one team has gone down with exactly 39 (Birmingham, 2011).
38 points80%Roughly 1 point-per-game; typically keeps a team safe.
36 points60%The historical baseline average for survival.
32 points13.3%Nottingham Forest remarkably stayed up with just 32 points in 2023/24.
27 points6.6%Luton Town survived with a record-low 27 points
in 2024

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Rather random collection of stats

And you’d expect us to be in the bottom 3 or 4 anyway.

Some of our defensive stats are quite decent- we’re 8th for xGA, which puts us 17th on xGD.

But is being 8th for xGA yet 19/20th for GA a good thing? Kind of suggests we're letting in a lot more goals than we should. Which of course we are given that most have been outside the area, including a couple of worldies, and Rushworth letting some in he shouldn't

 

[fernandopartridge]

Simms has scored one deflected goal and has looked not as good as Awonyi at things like holding the call up and controlling passes.

We saw enough against Arsenal. He had one moment where he could have influenced the game and as usual he got his trampolines muddled up and the ball went past him.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Going to probably need minimum of 38, can't see us picking up many away.


Survival Success RateHistorical Context
43+ points100%Absolute safety. No team has ever gone down with 43.
40 points90%Only one team has gone down with exactly 39 (Birmingham, 2011).
38 points80%Roughly 1 point-per-game; typically keeps a team safe.
36 points60%The historical baseline average for survival.
32 points13.3%Nottingham Forest remarkably stayed up with just 32 points in 2023/24.
27 points6.6%Luton Town survived with a record-low 27 points
in 2024

We've won as many away as we have at home so far TBF despite having arguably more difficult games away

 

[fernandopartridge]

But is being 8th for xGA yet 19/20th for GA a good thing? Kind of suggests we're letting in a lot more goals than we should. Which of course we are given that most have been outside the area, including a couple of worldies, and Rushworth letting some in he shouldn't

It's just a sign that we've conceded many long range goals, which we have

 

[Skyblueabo1111]

We've won as many away as we have at home so far TBF despite having arguably more difficult games away

We have, but your home games are normally easier to win..38 points may not be enough, certainly a hard number to reach, in this league.

 

[Skyblueabo1111]

We saw enough against Arsenal. He had one moment where he could have influenced the game and as usual he got his trampolines muddled up and the ball went past him.

Awonyi has scored any. How many minutes, compared to Simms? Simms half of Awonyi ( minutes)

 

[Skybluecov1]

Awonyi has scored any. How many minutes, compared to Simms? Simms half of Awonyi ( minutes)

Say that again buddy?

 

[Skyblueabo1111]

We saw enough against Arsenal. He had one moment where he could have influenced the game and as usual he got his trampolines muddled up and the ball went past him.

Say that again buddy?

Simms has played half the minutes Awonyi has, this season.

Say that again buddy?

 

[David O'Day]

Awonyi has scored any. How many minutes, compared to Simms? Simms half of Awonyi ( minutes)

Simms has 1 deflected goal, you are acting like he's scoring loads.

 

[Sky Blue Harry H]

Sunderland have rested almost all of their regular starters for tonight's game against Brentford. Shame, but not surprising.

 

[AFCCOVENTRY]

Sunderland have rested almost all of their regular starters for tonight's game against Brentford. Shame, but not surprising.

Yeah looks like they have. Even their bench looks like fringe players.

Manager clearly with an eye on picking up 3 points at our place to come off bottom spot.

Lampard needs to get this right.

 

[coop]

Yeah looks like they have. Even their bench looks like fringe players.

Manager clearly with an eye on picking up 3 points at our place to come off bottom spot.

Lampard needs to get this right.

And they are winning 2-0

 

[AFCCOVENTRY]

Sunderland 3-0 up against Brentford in 1st half so far

 

[Sky Blue Harry H]

And they are winning 2-0

3-0 !!!!!

 

[fernandopartridge]

3-0 !!!!!

Zero relevance to Saturday's game but I can see coop is warming up to start catastrophising

 

[AFCCOVENTRY]

Cov pull one back.

Callum Wilson

 

[Caer Urfa]

Didnt realise Sunderland play tonight. Hopefully they go full strength, few injuries, couple of red cards and Noro virus sweeps the camp. And lose 1-0 in the 94 min.

We have made 11 changes. So far our reserves are doing ok against Brentfords starting 11. Still long way to go mind.

 

[coop]

Zero relevance to Saturday's game but I can see coop is warming up to start catastrophising

No just putting the score down my friend

 

[skybluecam]

But is being 8th for xGA yet 19/20th for GA a good thing? Kind of suggests we're letting in a lot more goals than we should. Which of course we are given that most have been outside the area, including a couple of worldies, and Rushworth letting some in he shouldn't

I mean you answered your own question, it is a good thing. Once centre backs stop smashing 30 yard thunderbolts against us and Rushworth finds any form we’ll concede less.

 

[fernandopartridge]

I mean you answered your own question, it is a good thing. Once centre backs stop smashing 30 yard thunderbolts against us and Rushworth finds any form we’ll concede less.

Agree, but we might need to trade a few xGA for a better xG

 

[Offhegoes]

The team I'd like to see on Sat.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

I mean you answered your own question, it is a good thing. Once centre backs stop smashing 30 yard thunderbolts against us and Rushworth finds any form we’ll concede less.

But if we continue to give players of this calibre space and time outside the area will those long range shots stop going in? I think Rushworth should improve and he's definitely got the ability to perform better than he has though. Not guaranteed though.

 

[Offhegoes]

Simms has scored one deflected goal and has looked not as good as Awonyi at things like holding the call up and controlling passes.

Simms had a good 1st half at Arsenal. Has probably had 20-25 mins since then (and a goal). Awonyi did look good before his red card, but I don't think he's a goal scorer, like Simms is. They'd be a great partnership though. With Haji coming back, Cheriff and BTA around we could play a 5-3-2 or 4-4-2 with ease.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

How we approach this game could be pivotal to how we look ahead to the rest of the season, or at least until the transfer window. We've looked passive and scared and we need to start playing like we feel we deserve our place in this league and are capable of competing.

I have a feeling that Xhaka and Sadiki are going to boss a midfield of Grimes and Yirenkyi. Wouldn't be surprised to see Xhaka use his nous to get Yirenkyi sent off either. Le Fee is going to get a lot of opportunities to find space.

Rushworth
MvE Pinnock Mfuni* Dasilva
Onyeka Yirenkyi
Sakamoto Rudoni Gboho
Cherif

Subs: Bentley, Lati, KKH, Grimes, Torp, Tchaouna, BTA, Simms + one of Hamer/EMC/Awoniyi

I'm assuming Thomas will be out and I'd consider starting Torp ahead of Yirenkyi and KKH ahead of MvE.

Potential subs:
Tchaouna for Sakamoto
Torp for Yirenkyi
Simms for Cherif
KKH for MvE

However, I expect Lampard will go for a very similar team/squad to Fulham and the likes of Grimes and BTA will start. I also expect he'd play EMC and BTA on the wings ahead of Gboho and Tchoauna, Hamer before Torp and Awoniyi instead of Simms despite none of them really showing much reason why they should.

 

[clint van damme]

The team I'd like to see on Sat.

View attachment 55542

Christ!!

 

[TomRad85]

Christ!!

Looks like a league cup team!

 

[Matt Grimes' Beard]

Going to probably need minimum of 38, can't see us picking up many away.


Survival Success RateHistorical Context
43+ points100%Absolute safety. No team has ever gone down with 43.
40 points90%Only one team has gone down with exactly 39 (Birmingham, 2011).
38 points80%Roughly 1 point-per-game; typically keeps a team safe.
36 points60%The historical baseline average for survival.
32 points13.3%Nottingham Forest remarkably stayed up with just 32 points in 2023/24.
27 points6.6%Luton Town survived with a record-low 27 points
in 2024

Slight correction here.

2 teams have been relegated with 39 points. As well as Birmingham, Blackpool also got relegated that year with 39 points.

 

[standupforcity]

Risks need to be taken to discover what we have. Staying safe ain't working.. there's too much talent left sitting on the bench.

 

[laudguuu]

Slight correction here.

2 teams have been relegated with 39 points. As well as Birmingham, Blackpool also got relegated that year with 39 points.

Also Luton got 26 points in 2023-24 and went down.

 

[laudguuu]

I’d try Hamer in place of Grimes. Won’t add much out of possession but more likely to create going forward. EMC for BTA. EMC was okay off the bench against Fulham and I still think he has the attributes to be a bottom half prem player (bring on Gboho at 60 if it’s still tight and it’s not happening for EMC). Mfuni in for Thomas. Maybe give Awoniyi another start as well. He was decent before the suspension and it’s tough to get going without starts.

Whatever mix we go with it’s gonna be really hard. The levels are ridiculous in the prem and if we get close to staying up it’s a huge achievement.

 

[Skybluefaz]

I’d try Hamer in place of Grimes. Won’t add much out of possession but more likely to create going forward. EMC for BTA. EMC was okay off the bench against Fulham and I still think he has the attributes to be a bottom half prem player (bring on at 60 if it’s still tight and it’s not happening for EMC). Mfuni in for Thomas. Maybe give Awoniyi another start as well. He was decent before the suspension and it’s hard to get going without starts.

Whatever mix we go with it’s gonna be really hard. The levels are ridiculous in the prem and if we get close to staying up it’s a huge achievement.

I agree that Hamer is capable in possession, for me the issue is that we're too slow to win it back and swapping Grimes for Hamer is like for like in that respect.

I think we need Onyeka and Yirenkyi behind Rudoni in midfield.

If that doesn't work I'm not too sure where we go, but we've been passed around far too easily by any half decent prem team we've played so far this season.

 

[laudguuu]

Yeah I’d like to see both options tried. So Hamer with Yirenkyi/Onyeka and Yirenkyi with Onyeka. Slightly prefer Hamer at home against another team that’s struggling. Would go with Yirenkyi and Onyeka away or against tougher opposition (Sunderland is still tough, but you know what I mean). And honestly I don’t feel super confident about any of the options. Just feels like we need to have a go with other combinations - see if we can find the right balance. Would have also considered back 5 again if Bobby wasn’t injured.

 

[Saddlebrains]

The team I'd like to see on Sat.

View attachment 55542

That line up has made me be sick in my mouth

Lati getting anywhere near a Prem 11 is bad enough, but to have the fat pisshead in from the start is the icing on the cake.

Cherif doesnt warrant being dropped at all, and Yirenkyis main position isnt RWB.

I hope you were drunk when you did this

 

[Grendel]

That line up has made me be sick in my mouth

Lati getting anywhere near a Prem 11 is bad enough, but to have the fat pisshead in from the start is the icing on the cake.

Cherif doesnt warrant being dropped at all, and Yirenkyis main position isnt RWB.

I hope you were drunk when you did this

He thought Rodriguez should be in the PL squad