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Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (3 Viewers)

fernandopartridge said:
Deaths can only go one way for a while. It'll get worse before it gets better as the numbers in hospital and ventilators pile up, plus lots of outbreaks in care homes as well
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Johnson today seemed to basically be giving up as well which is worrying. He's been shit but now he looks beaten as well.
 
David O'Day said:
Johnson today seemed to basically be giving up as well which is worrying. He's been shit but now he looks beaten as well.
Click to expand...
I think some of that was to try and deflect criticism of the sweeping powers they've given themselves without parliamentary debate
 
fernandopartridge said:
I think some of that was to try and deflect criticism of the sweeping powers they've given themselves without parliamentary debate
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But the bluster is gone, he knows it's all going wrong and everyone is going to blame him.
 
fernandopartridge said:
I read something about the 'HEPA' air filters on flights being particularly effective at removing corona particles from the air.
Click to expand...
According to Aeromexico (owned by Delta) the HEPA air filters are the same ones used in Hospitals and removes 99.9% of bacteria from the air.

As someone else said, I would much prefer to be on a flight than in a bar, or an underground or subway or whatever.
 
David O'Day said:
But the bluster is gone, he knows it's all going wrong and everyone is going to blame him.
Click to expand...

I could've saved him the bother within 10 minutes of first becoming aware of him all those years ago on HIGNFY. Clear immediately this was not a man whose name was never going to be synonomous with competence.
 
In more positive news.....

Imperial college have indicated that R rate has actually fallen (from 1.5/1.7 to around 1.1) in recent days. If this is correct it might’ve been the initial briefings a week or two ago that might’ve jolted the public out of what was becoming a more complacent approach to the virus. Too early to tell for sure as their sample testing might not be representative of the local spikes

Looking at the info provided in the briefIng yesterday:

There is substantial capacity in the NHS (inc 30k ventilators)
Even though schools have reopened the virus and therefore case numbers are not currently rising exponentially in school aged kids. Hopefully this message will reduce the numbers of kids getting tested (I’m guessing when they have colds etc), which will free up testing capacity for those of higher risk.

All a bit early for judgments but let’s hope the better news continues (even though Id expect numbers to continue to increase for a bit yet - especially I’m guessing around uni’s)

Ps Keeping a close eye on France and Spain to see if their high case numbers translate to high death numbers. Although higher still appear under control(ish) at present. Fingers crossed
 
CCFCSteve said:
In more positive news.....

Imperial college have indicated that R rate has actually fallen (from 1.5/1.7 to around 1.1) in recent days. If this is correct it might’ve been the initial briefings a week or two ago that might’ve jolted the public out of what was becoming a more complacent approach to the virus. Too early to tell for sure as their sample testing might not be representative of the local spikes

Looking at the info provided in the briefIng yesterday:

There is substantial capacity in the NHS (inc 30k ventilators)
Even though schools have reopened the virus and therefore case numbers are not currently rising exponentially in school aged kids. Hopefully this message will reduce the numbers of kids getting tested (I’m guessing when they have colds etc), which will free up testing capacity for those of higher risk.

All a bit early for judgments but let’s hope the better news continues (even though Id expect numbers to continue to increase for a bit yet - especially I’m guessing around uni’s)

Ps Keeping a close eye on France and Spain to see if their high case numbers translate to high death numbers. Although higher still appear under control(ish) at present. Fingers crossed
Click to expand...
If it’s correct we can get the bunting out. Boris has actually got something right. First for everything and if that is the case I only applaud his response, even if he himself didn’t understand what that response was.
 
skybluetony176 said:
If it’s correct we can get the bunting out. Boris has actually got something right. First for everything and if that is the case I only applaud his response, even if he himself didn’t understand what that response was.
Click to expand...

It's a big if and would be disputed by the public health officials on the ground.
 
robbiekeane said:
According to Aeromexico (owned by Delta) the HEPA air filters are the same ones used in Hospitals and removes 99.9% of bacteria from the air.

As someone else said, I would much prefer to be on a flight than in a bar, or an underground or subway or whatever.
Click to expand...

This is why it’s wrong not to have a smoking section on planes. Just saying.
 
CCFCSteve said:
In more positive news.....

Imperial college have indicated that R rate has actually fallen (from 1.5/1.7 to around 1.1) in recent days. If this is correct it might’ve been the initial briefings a week or two ago that might’ve jolted the public out of what was becoming a more complacent approach to the virus. Too early to tell for sure as their sample testing might not be representative of the local spikes

Looking at the info provided in the briefIng yesterday:

There is substantial capacity in the NHS (inc 30k ventilators)
Even though schools have reopened the virus and therefore case numbers are not currently rising exponentially in school aged kids. Hopefully this message will reduce the numbers of kids getting tested (I’m guessing when they have colds etc), which will free up testing capacity for those of higher risk.

All a bit early for judgments but let’s hope the better news continues (even though Id expect numbers to continue to increase for a bit yet - especially I’m guessing around uni’s)

Ps Keeping a close eye on France and Spain to see if their high case numbers translate to high death numbers. Although higher still appear under control(ish) at present. Fingers crossed
Click to expand...

Great news if the trend holds up. Little wary of the national survey as I’m not sure if this is the higher resolution one that can spot localised outbreaks, but it’s probably the best dataset we’ve got.

On the kids point, I doubt it’ll do much. Schools still want a negative test before they let kids back in so the motivation for parents is still there.
 
shmmeee said:
Great news if the trend holds up. Little wary of the national survey as I’m not sure if this is the higher resolution one that can spot localised outbreaks, but it’s probably the best dataset we’ve got.

On the kids point, I doubt it’ll do much. Schools still want a negative test before they let kids back in so the motivation for parents is still there.
Click to expand...

I don't think the national survey is very good for working this out anymore. It's dataset is worked out for the country as a whole so it will miss localised outbreaks. Remember places like Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester and others have x10 as many cases per 100k as the England average so lower spreading areas will drive down the the national average on most things. Looking at the local figures in these places the R rate is still well above 1.
 
David O'Day said:
I don't think the national survey is very good for working this out anymore. It's dataset is worked out for the country as a whole so it will miss localised outbreaks. Remember places like Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester and others have x10 as many cases per 100k as the England average so lower spreading areas will drive down the the national average on most things. Looking at the local figures in these places the R rate is still well above 1.
Click to expand...
The first important point is to always make sure you're comparing the same source. The R number given by Imperial has been very different from the one given by the government so people need to be careful not to interchange the two.

The second point is the margin of error. The headline figure is 1.1 but the report itself says it could be anywhere between 0.7 to 1.5 compared to a headline figure of 1.7 a month ago.

And of course anything over 1 means that overall its heading in the wrong direction. Unfortunately they only seem to release results monthly so it will be a while before we see if the downward trend continues and hopefully goes below 1.
 
chiefdave said:
The first important point is to always make sure you're comparing the same source. The R number given by Imperial has been very different from the one given by the government so people need to be careful not to interchange the two.

The second point is the margin of error. The headline figure is 1.1 but the report itself says it could be anywhere between 0.7 to 1.5 compared to a headline figure of 1.7 a month ago.

And of course anything over 1 means that overall its heading in the wrong direction. Unfortunately they only seem to release results monthly so it will be a while before we see if the downward trend continues and hopefully goes below 1.
Click to expand...
Yeah a lot of data appears,but not on a consistent measure,be that time or demographics.
 
David O'Day said:
I don't think the national survey is very good for working this out anymore. It's dataset is worked out for the country as a whole so it will miss localised outbreaks. Remember places like Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester and others have x10 as many cases per 100k as the England average so lower spreading areas will drive down the the national average on most things. Looking at the local figures in these places the R rate is still well above 1.
Click to expand...

I did say as much, I heard they were looking to increase its resolution to make it better though, not sure if that’s happened or still planned.
 
chiefdave said:
Found this slide pretty alarming in the briefing yesterday.

View attachment 17119
Click to expand...

Yeah, agree, anything where theres a rapid rise it is concerning (but probably expected following the increased case numbers). The vertical axis is also only currently 0 to 0.45 per 100k so even relatively low increases by number will appear more significant on the graph (not that this should be ignored)
 
David O'Day said:
I don't think the national survey is very good for working this out anymore. It's dataset is worked out for the country as a whole so it will miss localised outbreaks. Remember places like Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester and others have x10 as many cases per 100k as the England average so lower spreading areas will drive down the the national average on most things. Looking at the local figures in these places the R rate is still well above 1.
Click to expand...

Agree. To be honest I agree with the localised approach/measures at present due to this fact

Ps still hoping the rate of increase is being brought back under control though
 
shmmeee said:
This is why it’s wrong not to have a smoking section on planes. Just saying.
Click to expand...

I did hear that since smoking got banned on flights air quality has actually got poorer on planes because they recycle the air less to cut costs. When there was smoke in the air they had to pump fresh air in far more often.
 
CCFCSteve said:
Agree. To be honest I agree with the localised approach/measures at present due to this fact

Ps still hoping the rate of increase is being brought back under control though
Click to expand...
Local areas maybe need to be bigger though. Was daft Teesside not being included until now, you could say Midlands is right on the cusp all around.

You're OK if you live in Devon, though!
 
Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
I did hear that since smoking got banned on flights air quality has actually got poorer on planes because they recycle the air less to cut costs. When there was smoke in the air they had to pump fresh air in far more often.
Click to expand...
Said a spokesman for the tobacco industry. I think it turned out to be a complete urban myth IIRC.
 
skybluetony176 said:
Said a spokesman for the tobacco industry. I think it turned out to be a complete urban myth IIRC.
Click to expand...

I think it was a report that more people were getting nauseous on flights and developing colds etc after flights.

You may be right as I didn't follow it up to check.
 
Just had a google, found one letter to a flight magazine and a couple of reports saying the claims don’t hold up plus a couple of papers showing the impacts of second hand smoke on cabin crew.

Fair to say it’s probably bollocks. Ah well, I should probably just quit :P
 
Hartlepool.
80% of cases are occurring when households mix.
The solution to that one should be relatively simple?
 
I know there will be point's made about accuracy, but if it's instant does it not better conventional testing due to errors and delay there.
Also the price £150 quoted at one point but the price of a paperback further in .
Which is it,cos it's a factor of at least 15.

www.theguardian.com

Airport Covid testing could start within weeks, says Heathrow chief

Two-test model could cut quarantine period in half, and allow popular London-New York route to reopen next month
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
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