Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics)

NorthernWisdom

Well-Known Member
Apr 23, 2013
25,633
15,984
413
Why? Did Israel lift most restrictions in March?
Well here's why.


If we're saying that other nations are having issues because of a vaccine efficacy of 50%, then with one dose, we're looking similar. Now, this paper is encouraging, in that it supports the UK government's policy of longer time spans between doses. However, the Oxford efficacy appears to be down at 55.1% if doses given less than six weeks apart. That's also having had two doses, rather than just one. One dose offers no protection against asymptomatic infection, so you can still heartily spread away, although of course not showing symptoms means you're less likely to be coughing in peoples' faces!

So, if you're expecting to remove masks and distancing (and Johnson said just the other day that he expected distancing to go June 21st, all things being equal - then again, this is the same bloke who was off to see his Mum on Mother's Day last year, and that didn't exactly go as he planned!), then many people will be down in the realms of said Chinese vaccine as they won't have received both doses, and many will be on 0% as they won't have received any. Couple that with an efficacy of 81% after two doses 12 weeks apart, and you're looking at spread.

The encouraging thing, is it does seem even if you catch it after being vaccinated, you're pretty unlucky to catch it badly, which is the primary aim (I can't be bothered to check what the comparison with the Chinese vaccine is in that respect), but it's also about reducing spread to squash it, and therefore reduce risk of mutation / cases rising due to increased contact meaning increased transmission.
 
Last edited:

NorthernWisdom

Well-Known Member
Apr 23, 2013
25,633
15,984
413
Single dose AZ is around 70% efficacy for first 90 days
Of getting symptomatic Covid - 76% according to cited trial.

I can see the confusion as it summarises for brevity earlier, but:

A single standard dose had an efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 in the first 90 days of 76·0% (59·3 to 85·9), yet provided no protection against asymptomatic infection (vaccine efficacy −17·2% [–248·6 to 60·6]). Notably, efficacy against any nucleic acid amplification test-positive cases, including symptomatic and asymptomatic or unknown cases, was 63·9% (46·0 to 75·9) after a single standard dose, suggesting the possibility of reducing viral transmission.
So yes, a single dose may well reduce transmission (probably does! But not tested to be certain yet) but, if you remove masks and distancing, that's quite a leap to compensate for said reduction if you're doing that off the back of some, having one.
 
Last edited:

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
Jul 11, 2011
32,792
24,549
313
Coventry, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Surely if you’re asymptomatic you’re less contagious?

We started seeing a vaccine effect in the data well before second doses start which would suggest whatever the trial data says one dose does prevent spread as well as deaths.
 

jordan210

Well-Known Member
Sep 10, 2010
5,357
3,656
213
Doesn't appear to be any rhyme of reason to jab booking lately.

Partner had hers 2 weeks ago. As council arranged spares for teachers. Last week she got a text saying its time to book hers. She is a year younger than me !
 

NorthernWisdom

Well-Known Member
Apr 23, 2013
25,633
15,984
413
Doesn't appear to be any rhyme of reason to jab booking lately.

Partner had hers 2 weeks ago. As council arranged spares for teachers. Last week she got a text saying its time to book hers. She is a year younger than me !
She got any medical complaints at all? At a different surgery to you? Think texts are the GP way of doing things.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
Sep 19, 2011
60,859
18,947
813
Well here's why.


If we're saying that other nations are having issues because of a vaccine efficacy of 50%, then with one dose, we're looking similar. Now, this paper is encouraging, in that it supports the UK government's policy of longer time spans between doses. However, the Oxford efficacy appears to be down at 55.1% if doses given less than six weeks apart. That's also having had two doses, rather than just one. One dose offers no protection against asymptomatic infection, so you can still heartily spread away, although of course not showing symptoms means you're less likely to be coughing in peoples' faces!

So, if you're expecting to remove masks and distancing (and Johnson said just the other day that he expected distancing to go June 21st, all things being equal - then again, this is the same bloke who was off to see his Mum on Mother's Day last year, and that didn't exactly go as he planned!), then many people will be down in the realms of said Chinese vaccine as they won't have received both doses, and many will be on 0% as they won't have received any. Couple that with an efficacy of 81% after two doses 12 weeks apart, and you're looking at spread.

The encouraging thing, is it does seem even if you catch it after being vaccinated, you're pretty unlucky to catch it badly, which is the primary aim (I can't be bothered to check what the comparison with the Chinese vaccine is in that respect), but it's also about reducing spread to squash it, and therefore reduce risk of mutation / cases rising due to increased contact meaning increased transmission.
But by June 21st vulnerable age groups and those vulnerable will have been
Offered two doses won’t they?
 

NorthernWisdom

Well-Known Member
Apr 23, 2013
25,633
15,984
413
But by June 21st vulnerable age groups and those vulnerable will have been
Offered two doses won’t they?
I'll refer you back to the fact that risk of hospitalisation for over 40s is high enough, that if you remove masks, and also distancing, then the risk goes up quite a lot. They also have reclassified a number of people with asthma too, of course. Now, that can be a positive thing (evidence emerges that it's not as much of a risk to them!) but it does show we're a constantly moving feast atm.

Increase transmission, you increase cases. I don't quite understand tbh the resistance to masks inside for a few more weeks, to suppress it properly. Right at the beginning of this, we decided we only had a few cases, nothing to worry about, after all. Why not, having got this far, suppress it all the more and maximise the chances of no restrctions going forward - at all? A few weeks of masks and politely stepping back from people doesn't stop society from functioning.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
Sep 19, 2011
60,859
18,947
813
I'll refer you back to the fact that risk of hospitalisation for over 40s is high enough, that if you remove masks, and also distancing, then the risk goes up quite a lot.

Increase transmission, you increase cases. I don't quite understand tbh the resistance to masks inside for a few more weeks, to suppress it properly. Right at the beginning of this, we decided we only had a few cases, nothing to worry about, after all. Why not, having got this far, suppress it all the more and maximise the chances of no restrctions going forward - at all?
Hardly anyone has died of the virus under 50 though and one dose diminishes hospitalisation dramatically

Last summer also for whatever reason there was no obvious immediate spread due to the packed beaches etc.

There has to be a cut off point or a lot of unrest will occur. I’m sure some will wear masks anyway. Personally as soon as I don’t have to I won’t
 

Sick Boy

Well-Known Member
Sep 29, 2008
18,214
9,587
313
Verona, Italy
Sat waiting after my jab. Amazed by how orderly and efficient it’s all been. We should’ve got the NHS to handle Brexit.
The army have taken control of the logistics here. I went to see if there were any spares the other day at the local military base that’s now a vaccination centre and had to speak to a guy carrying a huge machine gun at the entrance.
 

jordan210

Well-Known Member
Sep 10, 2010
5,357
3,656
213
She got any medical complaints at all? At a different surgery to you? Think texts are the GP way of doing things.
Nope both at same surgery.If anything I have more medical than here. Her text was from NHS rather than surgery. Only thing I can think. is if they sent texts to people who had the jab via other means to tick them off as a jab offered.
 

hill83

Well-Known Member
Sep 15, 2008
16,954
21,366
363
Coventry
Well it’s more for my own peace of mind with not long to a wedding.
Can’t be much longer now. I’ll be booking mine on the nhs website as I’m not currently registered with a doctor.

Edit: Actually I am. In Wyken, just checked with my ex ha ha. Useless
 
Last edited:
  • Wow
Reactions: NorthernWisdom

NorthernWisdom

Well-Known Member
Apr 23, 2013
25,633
15,984
413
Can’t be much longer now. I’ll be booking mine on the nhs website as I’m not currently registered with a doctor.
Sorry, just being nosy. Surely you're registered somewhere, even if it's from 15 years ago?

For ages my doctor was here, while I lived 200 miles away(!)

Then I started getting middle aged, and needed to start going for aches, pains, and for a man to stick his hand up my bottom to check my prostate...
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
Sep 27, 2008
28,308
16,741
413
Coventry
Israel just released latest data on Pfizer, 95% efficacy after 2 jabs.
According to Our World In Data Israel are up to 58.5% fully vaccinated, compared to our 23.4% so any data from there is going to give us a good indicator of what we can expect.

Looks like from 7am today Israel are relaxing their restrictions. The Green Pass mentioned is a vaccine passport, Purple Badge is limited numbers with mandatory social distancing and mask wearing,.
  1. Gathering restrictions increased to 50 people indoors and 500 people outdoors
  2. Gyms, sports facilities, swimming pools and indoor attractions are cleared for operating subject to the Purple Badge requirements
  3. All restrictions, including gathering restrictions, are lifted for establishments that opted to operate subject to the Green Pass requirements. It should be stressed: Only Green Pass holders may enter these establishments.
  4. Occupancy restrictions for all establishments that opted to operate subject to the Purple Badge have been unified, at a ratio of one person per every 7 square meters.
  5. Events (such as shows aimed at children) may be held according to the following conditions: Seated spectating only, outdoors only, up to 500 people, no Green Pass required.
 
Last edited:

SBAndy

Well-Known Member
Mar 20, 2011
2,911
2,542
213
The army have taken control of the logistics here. I went to see if there were any spares the other day at the local military base that’s now a vaccination centre and had to speak to a guy carrying a huge machine gun at the entrance.
Was it a machine gun or was he just pleased to see you?
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
Feb 28, 2015
9,297
3,667
213
Surely if you’re asymptomatic you’re less contagious?

We started seeing a vaccine effect in the data well before second doses start which would suggest whatever the trial data says one dose does prevent spread as well as deaths.
Why would you be? Asymptomatic carriers virus are just as contagious.

Studies that show otherwise please
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
Feb 28, 2015
9,297
3,667
213
Can’t be much longer now. I’ll be booking mine on the nhs website as I’m not currently registered with a doctor.

Edit: Actually I am. In Wyken, just checked with my ex ha ha. Useless
Got your NHS number? i know someone who had an awful time booking s it wouldn't find him
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
Feb 28, 2015
9,297
3,667
213
Yeah got my nhs number did he have his?
no and not registered with a gp that is why I was asking - you'll be fine then. Takes about 5 minutes with the nhs number
 
  • Like
Reactions: hill83