Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (8 Viewers)

[wingy]

My guess why he was in hospital. As hospitals are super spreaders

Think he was at home until yesterday and tested positive about a week ago.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Redirect Notice

This is why social distancing won’t change much and large gatherings won’t be possible cause of countries like this

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Misleading surely as the majority of people who are likely to have a risk of dying will be vaccinated. Under 40 and it’s a tiny risk But these death forecasts don’t consider that do they?

I’m pretty sure that those experts at modelling know all of that my friend and this is accurate based on their knowledge and experience over the last year and combined wisdom and experience of hundreds of years

 

[Grendel]

I’m pretty sure that those experts at modelling know all of that my friend and this is accurate based on their knowledge and experience over the last year and combined wisdom and experience of hundreds of years

The data suggests not actually as if vaccines are successful you can vaccinate less than 50% of the population and eliminate 99% of deaths.

As for the hundreds of years I’m confused. Less than three hundred years ago the wisdom would have been to stick leaches on you

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

The data suggests not actually as if vaccines are successful you can vaccinate less than 50% of the population and eliminate 99% of deaths.

As for the hundreds of years I’m confused. Less than three hundred years ago the wisdom would have been to stick leaches on you

Combined experience in mathematical modelling. Are you an expert I hadn’t realised. Sorry! Have you completed the same data analysis as the university of warwick modellers?

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

They’ve done quite a few of these Grendel and been quite good at it.

 

[Grendel]

Combined experience in mathematical modelling. Are you an expert I hadn’t realised. Sorry! Have you completed the same data analysis as the university of warwick modellers?

I haven’t the expertise of Neil Ferguson whose expertise the government followed as without his expertise in modelling we could have reached 20,000 deaths by the time the virus had gone.

the assumptions are based purely on effacy rates

You seem rather agitated so I’ll leave it there

 

[hill83]

You seem rather agitated so I’ll leave it there

Job done then. Made up for you.

 

[Grendel]

Job done then. Made up for you.

Im not trying to be agente provocateur I’m just not sure what the point is.

if it’s seriously suggesting locking down gatherings for 12 months with a U.K. vaccine quality by then of 5 times the entire population it’s absurd in terms of practicality.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

I haven’t the expertise of Neil Ferguson whose expertise the government followed as without his expertise in modelling we could have reached 20,000 deaths by the time the virus had gone.

the assumptions are based purely on effacy rates

You seem rather agitated so I’ll leave it there

It’s not neil Ferguson its friends who work their balls off to help us so sharing it for interest. I’m only frustrated that you dismiss others expertise so readily for no reason that I can understand

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Under 40 and it’s a tiny risk

How about the 39.5 yos?

 

[Sky_Blue_Daz]

I’ve been out working with district nurses for the last 3 weeks . Got a phone call from my manager Friday morning telling me I had to go for a covid test due to several colleagues and patients showing symptoms. Between The phonecall Friday morning and getting the test Friday afternoon 8 other staff members tested positive. Thankfully mine came back negative , Im due my 2 vaccine jab in April

 

[clint van damme]

I’ve been out working with district nurses for the last 3 weeks . Got a phone call from my manager Friday morning telling me I had to go for a covid test due to several colleagues and patients showing symptoms. Between The phonecall Friday morning and getting the test Friday afternoon 8 other staff members tested positive. Thankfully mine came back negative , Im due my 2 vaccine jab in April

Bloody hell. Least you were negative mate

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Combined experience in mathematical modelling. Are you an expert I hadn’t realised. Sorry! Have you completed the same data analysis as the university of warwick modellers?

It does confuse me somewhat though Pete as approximately 99% of the hospitalisations come from the top 9 groups being vaccinated?

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

It does confuse me somewhat though Pete as approximately 99% of the hospitalisations come from the top 9 groups being vaccinated?

I’m trying to find the actual research to share rather than the newspaper story. It’s at different levels of efficacy isnt it

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I’m trying to find the actual research to share rather than the newspaper story. It’s at different levels of efficacy isnt it

Key statement from the paper's conclusion I think:

' A number of key vaccine parameters within the model are therefore based on parsimonious assumptions, and we identify the following three issues that require additional experimental data to refine model assumptions.

Firstly, as elucidated throughout this paper determining whether the vaccine blocks infection is key for the development of herd immunity and hence the role of vaccination in the long-term control of COVID-19. There is also the potential for the vaccine to further reduce viral shedding from vaccinated individuals, hence reducing onward transmission, but this is likely to be difficult to measure.

Secondly, we have assumed that efficacy against disease applies equally across the entire spectrum of disease, however if the vaccine has differential protection against the most severe disease this will impact our predictions for hospital admissions and deaths.

Finally, we expect efficacy to vary with age and between risk groups; incorporating such heterogeneity into models is key for more robust predictions. '

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

The UoW paper is here: Vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: When can the UK relax about COVID-19? (medrxiv.org)

A recent Israeli paper showing approximately 50% efficacy in preventing infection 2 weeks after the first Pfizer dose in around 500,000 patients: 50625865 (medrxiv.org)

 

[shmmeee]

I’m

It’s not neil Ferguson its friends who work their balls off to help us so sharing it for interest. I’m only frustrated that you dismiss others expertise so readily for no reason that I can understand

Jealousy mostly. He’s been stuck doing marketing for a third tier car brand all his life while these guys are doing things he can’t comprehend.

The fact he’s hung up on Ferguson tells you all you need to know. He’s got the data understanding of a German tabloid.

 

[wingy]

Thought that interview on TV over the weekend with the guy who was flown out of Wuhan with the 80 odd other people was intriguing ,was it yesterday ?

One year on from their evacuation.
Either suggesting it was a publicity stunt,or that they knew just what was coming, or that they made a balls of it .
Reckoned he'd have preferred to have been left in Wuhan .

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Thought that interview on TV over the weekend with the guy who was flown out of Wuhan with the 80 odd other people was intriguing ,was it yesterday ?

One year on from their evacuation.
Either suggesting it was a publicity stunt,or that they knew just what was coming, or that they made a balls of it was.
Reckoned he'd have preferred to have been left in Wuhan .

54 days was interesting about the start. Wasn’t too much China bashing or sensationalist about it all

Next one is on today I think

 

[clint van damme]

UK has secured supply of the vaccine which is to be made in Scotland up until 2025.

Think thats a strong indicator that vaaccinations are going to be needed annually

 

[chiefdave]

UK has secured supply of the vaccine which is to be made in Scotland up until 2025.

Think thats a strong indicator that vaaccinations are going to be needed annually

Even if not makes sense to start planning now as if it will be needed. Last thing we need is to get over this, have a few months of 'normal' and then be back to square one again.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Not sure if I heard right that 20% of care home assistants have passed on getting the vaccine. Strange

 

[shmmeee]

Not sure if I heard right that 20% of care home assistants have passed on getting the vaccine. Strange

Not at all surprised. They’ll all be Karen’s on FB posting about fluoride in drinking water and how were harming the immune system by wearing masks.

 

[Brylowes]

Just reported on the politics show, concerning the South African variant of which 77 cases were found in the Surrey area last week, apparently in 2 of the cases they can’t find any possible link to SA.

 

[fernandopartridge]

UK has secured supply of the vaccine which is to be made in Scotland up until 2025.

Think thats a strong indicator that vaaccinations are going to be needed annually

That and / or production for the rest of the world is intended

 

[fernandopartridge]

Not at all surprised. They’ll all be Karen’s on FB posting about fluoride in drinking water and how were harming the immune system by wearing masks.

Or they're from ethnic minority groups who seem to be more vaccine sceptic than your average Karen. I am doing a project at the minute to get Remote Monitoring software into Care Homes and the commissioners suggested the above to me,

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Bit of detail

Covid-19: London care home staff share concerns over vaccine

A number of London care home workers say they are hesitant about receiving the Covid-19 vaccine.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[shmmeee]

Or they're from ethnic minority groups who seem to be more vaccine sceptic than your average Karen. I am doing a project at the minute to get Remote Monitoring software into Care Homes and the commissioners suggested the above to me,

Yeah that too. Low income both BAME and white British have real anti-vax issues. And both large parts of care work workforce. Same in all low paid healthcare jobs from what I can tell.

The missus is always coming home with stories of the mental rumours she hears at UHCW from non-clinical staff.

 

[fernandopartridge]

One of the other problems is that care home residents are being infected post vaccination, so the workers no doubt add two and two to make five, ignoring that the resident may have already been infected or been infected before the vaccine starts to take effect.

 

[David O'Day]

I’m

Jealousy mostly. He’s been stuck doing marketing for a third tier car brand all his life while these guys are doing things he can’t comprehend.

The fact he’s hung up on Ferguson tells you all you need to know. He’s got the data understanding of a German tabloid.

I've not heard driving a minicab called "marketing" before

 

[Deleted member 5849]

One of the other problems is that care home residents are being infected post vaccination, so the workers no doubt add two and two to make five, ignoring that the resident may have already been infected or been infected before the vaccine starts to take effect.

And that it's inevitable some will get infected, even after vaccinating.

If we can suppress it so it's not so lethal, and doesn't travel around the country so vigorously, it buys us time for anti-virals / better treatments anyway. That's surely the role of a vaccine as much as anything.

 

[hill83]

Not at all surprised. They’ll all be Karen’s on FB posting about fluoride in drinking water and how were harming the immune system by wearing masks.

Or they're from ethnic minority groups who seem to be more vaccine sceptic than your average Karen. I am doing a project at the minute to get Remote Monitoring software into Care Homes and the commissioners suggested the above to me,

It’s ridiculous. Should be take the jab or lose your job.

 

[clint van damme]

It’s ridiculous. Should be take the jab or lose your job.

This thought crossed my mind but it would be a civil liberties minefield

 

[hill83]

This thought crossed my mind but it would be a civil liberties minefield

Its a job. Feel free to not take it and not have the job.