Yeah, this isn't right at all. '90% efficacy' means your chances of getting the virus decrease by 90%. It doesn't mean that only 90% of people are safe and the other 10% get the virus anyway.
If the vaccines cut risk of hospitalisation by 90% that's still a 1 in 10 chance of being hospitalised if you get it and when there's nothing being done to prevent spread and Javid predicting over 100K cases a day I don't think its unreasonable for people to have concerns.
Yeah, the logic is enough people build up some immunity so the spread decreases, and those who catch it don't suffer so much anyway. What vaccines are doing is turbocharging that to an earlier stage than it would otherwise be. What we're currently doing is overlapping the two things in the hope it works with a sweet spot.I thought it meant that you can still get it, but the immunity meant that you might not even realise it/ only get mild symptoms?
Somebody said (for better or worse as to how accurate, as I can't remember if the source was doctor or mentalist!) that the vaccine effectively chalks 30 years off your risk profile.It isn't right
Your personal risk of hospitalisation is cut by 90%, not that 1 in 10 are at reduced risk.
So, that's why you see old people still being admitted, cos their chances of hospitalisation were already so much higher. The vaccine might bring their chances down by 90% but it still means they could be more likely to be hospitalised than say a 15 year old without a vaccine.
The vaccine is brilliant but no vaccine is every going to be 100% and we're now seeing fully vaccinated people in hospital and dying. Shouldn't it be a case of having the vaccine alongside at least minimal attempts to reduce transmission?
If the vaccines cut risk of hospitalisation by 90% that's still a 1 in 10 chance of being hospitalised if you get it and when there's nothing being done to prevent spread and Javid predicting over 100K cases a day I don't think its unreasonable for people to have concerns. We seem to have come full circle back to the 'its only the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions' like they are expendable.
Again the messaging is all over the place and trying to find reliable information is hard. You've got people saying if you're fully vaccinated you can get back to normal life and not worry but then you've got the likes of Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter saying, “I’m 67, vaxxed to the eyeballs but actually an-unvaxxed 30 year old still has lower risk of dying from COVID than I have.”
Not sure I follow. If the vaccine reduces hospitalisations by 90% then surely if you took 100 people who pre-vaccine would have been hospitalised 10 of them still would be post-vaccine?Yeah, this isn't right at all. '90% efficacy' means your chances of getting the virus decrease by 90%. It doesn't mean that only 90% of people are safe and the other 10% get the virus anyway.
Where did you come up with everyone vaccinated can catch it and pass it on to others?How will herd immunity work in practice? I understand the concept but doesn't it rely on those with the vaccine not getting covid and therefore not spreading it? How do you achieve herd immunity if everyone vaccinated can still get it and pass it on to others?
Again the messaging is all over the place and trying to find reliable information is hard. You've got people saying if you're fully vaccinated you can get back to normal life and not worry but then you've got the likes of Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter saying, “I’m 67, vaxxed to the eyeballs but actually an-unvaxxed 30 year old still has lower risk of dying from COVID than I have.”
Not sure I follow. If the vaccine reduces hospitalisations by 90% then surely if you took 100 people who pre-vaccine would have been hospitalised 10 of them still would be post-vaccine?
How do you get any idea of how at risk you are? There's experts on TV saying those who are fully vaccinated are still at greater risk of death than younger people who aren't vaccinated is that not the case?
There's really needs to be accurate and reliable information out there that non-scientists can easily digest. How are we so far into this with so little information on government and PHE websites?
Not sure I follow. If the vaccine reduces hospitalisations by 90% then surely if you took 100 people who pre-vaccine would have been hospitalised 10 of them still would be post-vaccine?
How do you get any idea of how at risk you are? There's experts on TV saying those who are fully vaccinated are still at greater risk of death than younger people who aren't vaccinated is that not the case?
There's really needs to be accurate and reliable information out there that non-scientists can easily digest. How are we so far into this with so little information on government and PHE websites?
Not sure I follow. If the vaccine reduces hospitalisations by 90% then surely if you took 100 people who pre-vaccine would have been hospitalised 10 of them still would be post-vaccine?
How do you get any idea of how at risk you are? There's experts on TV saying those who are fully vaccinated are still at greater risk of death than younger people who aren't vaccinated is that not the case?
There's really needs to be accurate and reliable information out there that non-scientists can easily digest. How are we so far into this with so little information on government and PHE websites?
See below. Brighton or someone properly qualified might correct me, but based on the table below where If an over 80 year old had a cumulative risk of hospitalisation of around 23, that would be reduced by 90%, i.e. to around 2.3. Though I think the 90% is aggregated across age groups so efficacy probably a bit lower than that. Still higher than some young people but a huge improvement.
SGTF mentioned here was the signifier of the difference between the wild type and Alpha variant:
View attachment 20987
Not sure I follow. If the vaccine reduces hospitalisations by 90% then surely if you took 100 people who pre-vaccine would have been hospitalised 10 of them still would be post-vaccine?
What’s the age range SB?Over 60% first doses and over 40% fully vaccinated now in Italy.
She felt like she had a bit of a cold coming on and rundown but put that down to still recovering from Sunday night!!Did she have any other symptoms LG? At least the vaccine blocked infection in your case
51870
49 deaths
How’s hospital figures?
Been open to anyone over 12 since 3rd June; over 40s still have priority for appointments though.What’s the age range SB?
51870
49 deaths
How’s hospital figures?
I agree with this, stopped following it a couple of weeks ago. Although because of the level of infections they are thrown at you left, right and centre by the news outlets.I'm not sure checking those figures every day are doing you any good mate. Maybe it would make you feel a bit better if you ignored it for a while? Not trying to be patronising or anything, but I personally felt a lot better when I stopped paying attention to it so much.
Thank you genuinely but I find it interesting. I’m not anxious about it it makes me think and engage.I'm not sure checking those figures every day are doing you any good mate. Maybe it would make you feel a bit better if you ignored it for a while? Not trying to be patronising or anything, but I personally felt a lot better when I stopped paying attention to it so much.
We’re in this mess right now for one reason only. Boris failed to put India on the red list soon enough. We could have been 4 weeks further into the vaccine program so he’s missed 2 opportunities to slow the spread of the delta variant. How many more people can be double dosed in 4 weeks?
The big point is it’s not the choice of the advisors. Advisors advise and governments govern. We don’t really know what the government scientists are advising Boris but there’s no shortage of equally qualified scientists who don’t answer to the government very publicly saying that the government are getting it wrong. Not least the developers of the Oxford vaccine.I agree that he should shoulder some of the blame if any that couldve been double jabbed have got ill and have said before that India could’ve gone on a bit earlier, however we had loads of people travelling to India that didn’t need to, they all rushed back from their ‘urgent’ trip on the threat of red list quarantine and then many didn’t self isolate on return - that’s not all Johnson’s fault. There are clear quarantine requirements for amber list countries that shouldn’t necessarily require thousands or tens of thousands being locked up in hotels.
Also, is there no blame for all the people that have been packing into bars, mixing on streets (see Wembley pics) etc. I include myself in that by the way. Or the high numbers of people who choose not to get vaccinated ? It’s no coincidence that there has been rapid spread in city locations (younger demographic, multi cultural so some higher vaccine reticence). I mentioned before I was in a vaccine centre 3-4 weeks ago and a third of appointment slots weren’t left empty ?!! In Birmingham, a lower vaccinated, now high transmission, area.
The fact is the decision is now to let this run rather than wait until autumn/winter and hope hospitals can deal with it. The ‘mess’ is a choice by Johnson’s and scientific advisors, even Ferguson said it is a calculated gamble worth taking. I know everything will be 100% Johnson’s fault in certain peoples eyes but that’s only if you ignore all of the above and remove all personal responsibility from the equation
I agree that he should shoulder some of the blame if any that couldve been double jabbed have got ill and have said before that India could’ve gone on a bit earlier, however we had loads of people travelling to India that didn’t need to, they all rushed back from their ‘urgent’ trip on the threat of red list quarantine and then many didn’t self isolate on return - that’s not all Johnson’s fault. There are clear quarantine requirements for amber list countries that shouldn’t necessarily require thousands or tens of thousands being locked up in hotels.
Also, is there no blame for all the people that have been packing into bars, mixing on streets (see Wembley pics) etc. I include myself in that by the way. Or the high numbers of people who choose not to get vaccinated ? It’s no coincidence that there has been rapid spread in city locations (younger demographic, multi cultural so some higher vaccine reticence). I mentioned before I was in a vaccine centre 3-4 weeks ago and a third of appointment slots weren’t left empty ?!! In Birmingham, a lower vaccinated, now high transmission, area.
The fact is the decision is now to let this run rather than wait until autumn/winter and hope hospitals can deal with it. The ‘mess’ is a choice by Johnson’s and scientific advisors, even Ferguson said it is a calculated gamble worth taking. I know everything will be 100% Johnson’s fault in certain peoples eyes but that’s only if you ignore all of the above and remove all personal responsibility from the equation
Don’t think you can say the advisors are at fault one bit, their job is to advise, not make decisions, that’s a complete cop out tbf
But I do agree on personal responsibility. But then you could even argue that was partly due to a lack of clarity from up above on what the hell to do
Not saying theyre at fault at all, just that I think the current plan of letting it run has been decided by Johnson and the scientific advisors rather than hold the wave back for autumn/winter. Only time will tell if it’s the right decision
I'm not sure checking those figures every day are doing you any good mate. Maybe it would make you feel a bit better if you ignored it for a while? Not trying to be patronising or anything, but I personally felt a lot better when I stopped paying attention to it so much.
Again. Advisors advise. It’s Boris’ plan, you don’t even know whether he’s following all of the advice, some of the advice or none of the advice.Not saying theyre at fault at all, just that I think the current plan of letting it run has been decided by Johnson and the scientific advisors rather than hold the wave back for autumn/winter. Only time will tell if it’s the right decision
WowBoris Johnson’s Covid policy poses ‘danger to the world’, international scientists warn
International experts convene emergency summit ahead of England’s unlockingwww.independent.co.uk
The nut case that runs Hungary has apparently put the U.K. on their red list. This is the nut case who’s supposed to make Boris look competent.Saw something about this- we’re putting counties into the green list but they’re putting us on the red list
My main problem is Johnson cherry picks. Get it done with now? Great! But be cautious, keep some measures in place? Ah...Not saying theyre at fault at all, just that I think the current plan of letting it run has been decided by Johnson and the scientific advisors rather than hold the wave back for autumn/winter. Only time will tell if it’s the right decision
It's such a priveleged first world view isn't it? They're talking about the UK that has fully vaccinated nearly 70% of its adult population. No word at all about the likelihood of epidemic and prospect of variants in the unprotected global South.Some international perspective is interesting but I suppose those that want to will just see this as us being great
Why England’s COVID ‘freedom day’ alarms researchers
Easing restrictions amid rising infections raises the risk of new variants emerging and risks the health of those who are not vaccinated, say researchers around the world.www.nature.com
Some think that the government is aiming to achieve ‘herd immunity’ in the population through a mix of natural infection and vaccination
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