shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Yeah I meant in terms of lockdown, not general morality.
That’s new admissions isn’t it? It current occupancy available? @fernandopartridge probably better to ask, especially as you need to STFU and GBTW.
Fair point, although i'd argue it's not the MOST important thing - i'd say deaths is but i think we're on the same page. Excuse my shitty excel chart i made it from raw data as couldn't find a decent visual.
Looks like there's basically zero lag between cases and hospital admissions (maybe a day or two, but peaks on January 10th again for hospital admissions). In which case, this looks really positive. Has there been an increase recently? Yeah. But nowhere near the same level as there has been for cases.
So what we used to see was:
Spike in cases - Spike in admissions - Spike in deaths.
Now we are seeing:
Spike in cases - No spike in admissions but an increase - Jury's out on impacts to deaths (more insight to come around July 10th).
View attachment 20678
Inpatients data is available, I’ve been keeping tabs on it the last couple of weeks.
I was talking about a couple over the past 2-3 months, in particular the forecast daily hospitalisations and inpatients (and in turn deaths). The quoting of thousands of hospitalisations per day and the build up of inpatients when the high risk had been vaccinated/a signifiant majority of the adult population have antibodies, just didn’t make sense to me. They’ve subsequently been revised downWhich imperial model? Certainly not their first that was spot on.
I was talking about a couple over the past 2-3 months, in particular the forecast daily hospitalisations and inpatients (and in turn deaths). The quoting of thousands of hospitalisations per day and the build up of inpatients when the high risk had been vaccinated/a signifiant majority of the adult population have antibodies, just didn’t make sense to me. They’ve subsequently been revised down
Never like speaking too soon though as things can change very quickly so keeping fingers crossed it stays that way
Ps my language (‘horrifically’) after a few beers was probably a little OTT !
Yeah I meant in terms of lockdown, not general morality.
That’s new admissions isn’t it? It current occupancy available? @fernandopartridge probably better to ask, especially as you need to STFU and GBTW.
The problem isn't so much the modelling its the way its reported. The modelling reports I've looked at are always heavily caveated around the unknowns.Yeah not sure which Impreial model you're referring to as the last one (I think it's the latest anyway) from May looks pretty much spot on too
The problem isn't so much the modelling its the way its reported. The modelling reports I've looked at are always heavily caveated around the unknowns.
In the case of the delta variant there was not knowing how it impacted the R and if those who got it were more or less likely to be seriously affected. That leads to a range of possible scenarios but the press seize on the worst case and it then becomes 'the modelling said hospitals would be overwhelmed in days' or similar.
Yeah not sure which Impreial model you're referring to as the last one (I think it's the latest anyway) from May looks pretty much spot on too
The problem isn't so much the modelling its the way its reported. The modelling reports I've looked at are always heavily caveated around the unknowns.
In the case of the delta variant there was not knowing how it impacted the R and if those who got it were more or less likely to be seriously affected. That leads to a range of possible scenarios but the press seize on the worst case and it then becomes 'the modelling said hospitals would be overwhelmed in days' or similar.
And of course quite often the modelling says something along the lines of if we don't do x then y will happen. So for example they say if we don't delay removal of the final restrictions by 4 weeks there is a risk that hospitalisations could rise sharply. We delay the removal of restrictions, therefore hospitalisations don't rise sharply and people round on the modellers saying hospitalisations haven't risen there was no reason not to open up!
Face nappies to become voluntary 19th of July apparently
Can you try asking him what his role is at the hospital? He won’t answer meOnly a nappy if your mouth constantly spews shit mate
Can you try asking him what his role is at the hospital? He won’t answer me
Only a nappy if your mouth constantly spews shit mate
Cause you said it so we’d respect your opinion on medical matters. If you’re a Porter yeah right and if you’re a consultant in respiratory diseases that’s another point. I know you could just spout crap but by not replying it makes me think you’re talking bolloxWhy are you so obsessed with what I do at the hospital? So odd
Well you behave like a bit of a prick mate, that's probably it.Why are people so offended on here so easily? Such softies haha
Cancel culture strikes againOne of the blokes who accosted Chris Whitty the other day has lost his job. Serves him right.
Man apologises for accosting Prof Chris Whitty in park
Police are investigating a video which shows two men grabbing hold of England's chief medical officer.www.bbc.co.uk
Cancel culture? Oh! You mean consequence culture.Cancel culture strikes again
No Cancel culture, what really have them lads done wrong.Cancel culture? Oh! You mean consequence culture.
Meanwhile back in the real world acting like a dick, publicly harassing a public figure, posting it on social media thinking you’re clever has consequences. The numpty did this for a reaction, he got one. The fact that he wasn’t smart enough to work out what that reaction was going to be in the wider context is on him. How could his now ex employer allow him to have contacts with clients who have been adversely effected (which is basically everyone to some degree) by Covid given he’s identified himself as a covidiot. What’s the employer supposed to do? Vet customers to see if they’ve lost a loved one to Covid before sending this idiot to meet them?No Cancel culture, what really have them lads done wrong.
Meanwhile back in the real world acting like a dick, publicly harassing a public figure, posting it on social media thinking you’re clever has consequences. The numpty did this for a reaction, he got one. The fact that he wasn’t smart enough to work out what that reaction was going to be in the wider context is on him. How could his now ex employer allow him to have contacts with clients who have been adversely effected (which is basically everyone to some degree) by Covid given he’s identified himself as a covidiot. What’s the employer supposed to do? Vet customers to see if they’ve lost a loved one to Covid before sending this idiot to meet them?
Actions have consequences, this is his, he’s earned it, he isn’t a victim. Chris Witty on the other hand is.
No Cancel culture, what really have them lads done wrong.
No Cancel culture, what really have them lads done wrong.
Too much of a wanker to be an estate agent. A career in politics awaits.If his boss wants to sack him, then that's his bosses' lookout. He was an estate agent anyway so a nailed on wanker before the video was published.
The irony being that you use that in reply to my post where I clearly and quite accurately explain why it isn’t “cancel culture” instead of someone’s post where they randomly use a buzz phrase that they clearly don’t understand otherwise they wouldn’t have used it in the first place. Baaa right back at ya.
The irony being that you use that in reply to my post where I clearly and quite accurately explain why it isn’t “cancel culture” instead of someone’s post where they randomly use a buzz phrase that they clearly don’t understand otherwise they wouldn’t have used it in the first place. Baaa right back at ya.
Indoctrinated with what? Those lads failed to show a shred of common decency didn't they?It's pure indoctrination.
No Cancel culture, what really have them lads done wrong.
I'm not saying here anyone has the right to confront, that's the word needed here,not accoste assault haress etc.No Cancel culture, what really have them lads done wrong.
It was more a case that you could literally copy and paste that response from anywhere. It's pure indoctrination.
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