Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (22 Viewers)

[David O'Day]

Also the current restrictions are not sustainable for health, behavioral or economic reasons. People are already starting to crack.

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[Nick]

More scaremongering, plucking numbers out of the air.

As I keep saying, he wants to get people panicked and scared. He has from the start.

 

[Nick]

Also the current restrictions are not sustainable for health, behavioral or economic reasons. People are already starting to crack.

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Said it last week, they see paramedics and police stood on a bridge watching the public all stand together then they think "fuck it, why should I be stuck in".

Examples aren't being set properly.

I'm physically back at work tomorrow, can't happen soon enough.

 

[Ian1779]

More scaremongering, plucking numbers out of the air.

Not really - it seems to be generally accepted that care home deaths would likely double the hospital confirmed deaths.

 

[Nick]

Not really - it seems to be generally accepted that care home deaths would likely double the hospital confirmed deaths.

So people who die in a care home can't be put down as COVID as a reason?

Are Germany using exactly the same reporting and stats as us in terms of what is a COVID death? (Genuine question and not sarcasm! )

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

Not really - it seems to be generally accepted that care home deaths would likely double the hospital confirmed deaths.

Piers Morgan has been the biggest twat going in this pandemic, with all his scaremongering he should be ashamed

 

[Ian1779]

Piers Morgan has been the biggest twat going in this pandemic, with all his scaremongering he should be ashamed

Man calling out government should be ashamed.... standard.

 

[Ian1779]

So people who die in a care home can't be put down as COVID as a reason?

Are Germany using exactly the same reporting and stats as us in terms of what is a COVID death? (Genuine question and not sarcasm! )

I don’t know about other countries - may very much depend on how/where they test/trace/track. We as a country have not done adequte testing or tracking of the disease, especially in care homes.

It’s not scaremongering is it to suggest that a virus that has killed over 20K in hospital alone wouldn’t have a similarly destructive effect on places filled with vulnerable and at risk people with little or no access to any kind of medical care.

 

[chiefdave]

So people who die in a care home can't be put down as COVID as a reason?

Are Germany using exactly the same reporting and stats as us in terms of what is a COVID death? (Genuine question and not sarcasm! )

Not really down to care home death not being recorded correctly, its the lag (which is weeks) in the deaths being registered and the ONS publishing the figures.

The FT aren't plucking figures out of thin air, they're looking at the existing published data and then using that to model the numbers for the more recent period where the data is not yet available. The person behind this, Chris Giles, has said several times on twitter that they are deliberately being conservative with their modelling to avoid panicking people with a large number that turns out to be too high.

There is a methodology behind it which is explained here:
UK coronavirus deaths more than double official figure, according to FT study | Free to read
or a shorter explanation in this thread:

 

[Nick]

I don’t know about other countries - may very much depend on how/where they test/trace/track. We as a country have not done adequte testing or tracking of the disease, especially in care homes.

It’s not scaremongering is it to suggest that a virus that has killed over 20K in hospital alone wouldn’t have a similarly destructive effect on places filled with vulnerable and at risk people with little or no access to any kind of medical care.

The thing is, how can we compare with Germany for example if they are using different reporting?

He has scaremongered since the very start, his MO is to get people worrying.

Aren't people in care homes allowed to have died from COVID? After all, people in hospitals are being certified as dying from it without being tested.

 

[Nick]

Not really down to care home death not being recorded correctly, its the lag (which is weeks) in the deaths being registered and the ONS publishing the figures.

The FT aren't plucking figures out of thin air, they're looking at the existing published data and then using that to model the numbers for the more recent period where the data is not yet available. The person behind this, Chris Giles, has said several times on twitter that they are deliberately being conservative with their modelling to avoid panicking people with a large number that turns out to be too high.

There is a methodology behind it which is explained here:
UK coronavirus deaths more than double official figure, according to FT study | Free to read
or a shorter explanation in this thread:

Again, it's just a calculation and an estimate.

Aren't people in carehomes being certified as dying of COVID at all? Is it assuming every care home death is COVID and saying they haven't been counted?

So much of it is about politics, you have Piers Morgan on one hand saying the world is doomed and everybody is going to die and pushing his shite and people like Dom on the other hand trying to give Boris Johnson a reacharound.

 

[chiefdave]

The thing is, how can we compare with Germany for example if they are using different reporting?

This is, IMO, the best option. Instead of looking at what has been recorded as coronavirus deaths look at excess mortality.

 

[Nick]

This is, IMO, the best option. Instead of looking at what has been recorded as coronavirus deaths look at excess mortality.

That's a better way of showing the difference but it is still all calculations rather than confirming it is COVID. Obviously it will play a major factor and I know it sounds crude but will we see more now but less in the comings months?

Has Germany's gone up by much?

 

[Deleted member 5849]

This is, IMO, the best option. Instead of looking at what has been recorded as coronavirus deaths look at excess mortality.

Agreed.

 

[Nick]

The thing is that stats can easily be manipulated.

For example if Germany (I don't know how they are reporting) are only reporting people who have been confirmed to die of Corona and tested as dead but they are testing every Tom, Dick and Harry then their death rate will be low and recovery high. For example if they tested everybody who had a slight cold symptom whereas if we only tested if they were on life support in hospital then the figures will be massively different on recovert.

 

[CCFCSteve]

On an apolitical note, I can kind of understand why you might not publish it so people don't start enacting it before the actual date.

I can also see why you might want to put it out there, however, so that you can get feedback on how people respond to the ideas.

Personally... I'd have thought the best thing is to see how any lifting of restraints goes in places like Italy before jumping ourselves. If it goes well, we follow. if badly...

Spot on NW. I haven’t seen the benefit of making announcements before now for exactly that reason. The ‘treat everyone as adults’ comment (from left and right) don’t wash as we saw the large minority of ‘adults’ earlier on in the outbreak (when people ignored the advised socially distancing pre formal lockdown of pubs etc) and since.

I wouldn’t be surprised if now the better weather is out the way a bit more information about the plan is released in the coming days though

 

[Ian1779]

The thing is that stats can easily be manipulated.

For example if Germany (I don't know how they are reporting) are only reporting people who have been confirmed to die of Corona and tested as dead but they are testing every Tom, Dick and Harry then their death rate will be low and recovery high. For example if they tested everybody who had a slight cold symptom whereas if we only tested if they were on life support in hospital then the figures will be massively different on recovert.

If you compare death rate versus ‘tested’ and death rate versus ‘population size’ - we are shit in every regard. It’s not about a manipulation of statistics (although I understand your point) it’s the fact that in any measure we’ve totally fucked it... and as yet there doesn’t appear to be any plan of how to get on top of it.

Coming out of lockdown shouldn’t even be an agenda item right now.

 

[Nick]

If you compare death rate versus ‘tested’ and death rate versus ‘population size’ - we are shit in every regard. It’s not about a manipulation of statistics (although I understand your point) it’s the fact that in any measure we’ve totally fucked it... and as yet there doesn’t appear to be any plan of how to get on top of it.

Coming out of lockdown shouldn’t even be an agenda item right now.

Oh yeah I have no doubt that things have been badly done. Same as the massive hospitals sat empty while people with Corona are mingling with others in normal hospitals.

It's just people are obsessing about other countries as a comparison and they would need to be reporting in exactly the same way with the same thresholds.

 

[skybluetony176]

New Zealand showing the way Coronavirus 'currently eliminated' in New Zealand locked down before a single death had occurred, have kept overall cases in the thousands rather the the tens or hundreds of thousands and deaths in hundreds rather than the tens of thousands. They’re now going to get the economy moving again on a controlled level and before most economies in the world. Socialism wins again. No wonder it’s one of the happiest countries in the world. Go on Jacinda gal.

 

[CCFCSteve]

This is, IMO, the best option. Instead of looking at what has been recorded as coronavirus deaths look at excess mortality.

I think thats what Witty and Vallance have been taking about as the likely more accurate indicator of the impact of Covid-19 (direct and indirect) in recent weeks, however, this would still need a bit of additional work/fine tuning

ps would still only be useful once the virus has been eliminated/under better control internationally though as I’d imagine some countries with relatively low initial contagion rates might well be hit harder in second/third waves (if they come).

 

[David O'Day]

Piers Morgan has been the biggest twat going in this pandemic, with all his scaremongering he should be ashamed

Hate to say this but he's been right a lot.

The government have been woeful

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[Nick]

New Zealand showing the way Coronavirus 'currently eliminated' in New Zealand locked down before a single death had occurred, have kept overall cases in the thousands rather the the tens or hundreds of thousands and deaths in hundreds rather than the tens of thousands. They’re now going to get the economy moving again on a controlled level and before most economies in the world. Socialism wins again. No wonder it’s one of the happiest countries in the world. Go on Jacinda gal.

Probably would as well.

have they locked down the borders as well? Pointless them getting rid and then a plane with somebody who has it comes in and sets it off again.

 

[chiefdave]

Aren't people in carehomes being certified as dying of COVID at all? Is it assuming every care home death is COVID and saying they haven't been counted?

Yes they are but they aren't included in the figure being announced daily by the government. You have to get that data from the ONS figures which are published weekly but deaths can not show on there for weeks due to the way the system of registering deaths work. Normally its not an issue as people are only looking at the data for longer term trends, not looking for daily updates.

There's two issues. The figure the government are updating daily isn't accurate, it is only hospital deaths. All evidence points to the true figure being far higher.
Then you have the issue with consistency of data between countries. Thats why when you want to compare countries you're best off looking at the difference between the expected number of deaths for this time of year and the actual number of deaths. Doesn't matter what country your in, if you're dead that's it and you count as 1 person on the figures.

 

[Nick]

Yes they are but they aren't included in the figure being announced daily by the government. You have to get that data from the ONS figures which are published weekly but deaths can not show on there for weeks due to the way the system of registering deaths work. Normally its not an issue as people are only looking at the data for longer term trends, not looking for daily updates.

There's two issues. The figure the government are updating daily isn't accurate, it is only hospital deaths. All evidence points to the true figure being far higher.
Then you have the issue with consistency of data between countries. Thats why when you want to compare countries you're best off looking at the difference between the expected number of deaths for this time of year and the actual number of deaths. Doesn't matter what country your in, if you're dead that's it and you count as 1 person on the figures.

Surely if there's a delay with registering deaths then in a few weeks they will be higher as they have just been registered?

This is the thing, it's pointless comparing to other countries and worrying about it.

 

[skybluetony176]

Probably would as well.

have they locked down the borders as well? Pointless them getting rid and then a plane with somebody who has it comes in and sets it off again.

They did to non residents back in March and even then anyone coming in had to go into quarantine for a period. We only just announced quarantine of people arriving into the country over the weekend if you want a comparison. Not even sure when it’s going to be implemented but you’re able to land in the UK show your passport and step straight onto public transport, go food shopping and return to work if you can’t work from home all on the same day.

 

[Nick]

They did to non residents back in March and even then anyone coming in had to go into quarantine for a period. We only just announced quarantine of people arriving into the country over the weekend if you want a comparison. Not even sure when it’s going to be implemented but you’re able to land in the UK show your passport and step straight onto public transport, go food shopping and return to work if you can’t work from home all on the same day.

Yep that makes sense, it has been pointless us all staying at home when somebody can fly in from somewhere that is riddled with it and just go and walk about the shops anyway.

 

[David O'Day]

Yes they are but they aren't included in the figure being announced daily by the government. You have to get that data from the ONS figures which are published weekly but deaths can not show on there for weeks due to the way the system of registering deaths work. Normally its not an issue as people are only looking at the data for longer term trends, not looking for daily updates.

There's two issues. The figure the government are updating daily isn't accurate, it is only hospital deaths. All evidence points to the true figure being far higher.
Then you have the issue with consistency of data between countries. Thats why when you want to compare countries you're best off looking at the difference between the expected number of deaths for this time of year and the actual number of deaths. Doesn't matter what country your in, if you're dead that's it and you count as 1 person on the figures.

They say it's only hospital deaths though. They are not trying to say it is all covid-19 related deaths. For the data they say it is it is 100 percent accurate. It's published and advertised as hospital deaths registered within a 24 hour period. It is not their fault people dead it as something else.

The expected deaths is not a great indicator either as there seems to be a lot of people such as those with mild heart attacks and strokes that are presenting at hospital later than they normally would and are now presenting too late at hospital.

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[Nick]

They say it's only hospital deaths though. They are not trying to say it is all covid-19 related deaths. For the data they say it is it is 100 percent accurate. It's published and advertised as hospital deaths registered within a 24 hour period. It is not their fault people dead it as something else.

The expected deaths is not a great indicator either as there seems to be a lot of people such as those with mild heart attacks and strokes that are presenting at hospital later than they normally would and are now presenting too late at hospital.

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That's the thing, if people aren't getting usual treatment then deaths will go up away from Corona too.

I wonder if suicides have gone up as well through all of this? I would bet they have

 

[David O'Day]

Surely if there's a delay with registering deaths then in a few weeks they will be higher as they have just been registered?

This is the thing, it's pointless comparing to other countries and worrying about it.

Pretty much. Also not all out of hospital deaths listed as covid-19 will have been tested. Has anyone looked at the standard flu deaths and other respiratory illness deaths out of hospital to see if they have decreased which could indicate anything with a cough is being listed as covid-19?

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[David O'Day]

That's the thing, if people aren't getting usual treatment then deaths will go up away from Corona too.

I wonder if suicides have gone up as well through all of this? I would bet they have

Which is why they are now repeatedly telling people to go to hospital if needed

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[chiefdave]

Probably would as well.

have they locked down the borders as well? Pointless them getting rid and then a plane with somebody who has it comes in and sets it off again.

New Zealand closed their borders on 19th March except for returning citizens. Then on 10th April they brought in compulsory 14 day quarantine in a government facility.

According to press reports here we're considering bringing in some restrictions to incoming flights next months.

 

[David O'Day]

That's the thing, if people aren't getting usual treatment then deaths will go up away from Corona too.

I wonder if suicides have gone up as well through all of this? I would bet they have

Suicides is also a good point which would be interesting to see

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[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Piers Morgan has been the biggest twat going in this pandemic, with all his scaremongering he should be ashamed

Piers Morgan IS a massive twat full stop. IMO he's been slightly less of a twat in the pandemic as he has actually questioned whether the response has been good enough and if mistakes have been made.

Yes, he's also gone down the scaremongering/sensationalism side as well, but as a tabloid journalist this shouldn't surprise anyone.

 

[Nick]

Which is why they are now repeatedly telling people to go to hospital if needed

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Be fucked if they go at 8PM on a Thursday and everybody is doing the macarena with the police lined up outside.

 

[skybluetony176]

Yep that makes sense, it has been pointless us all staying at home when somebody can fly in from somewhere that is riddled with it and just go and walk about the shops anyway.

I think you’re less likely to have it if you arrive now than if you were already here. We are the place that’s riddled with it, despite having a head start on most of the world. Certainly Europe. We’ve fooked it big time. We were winning 5-0 at halftime and ended up 5-6 losers.