Fuel prices (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Nick
- Start date
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Why won’t any be available for £500?
Used electric is only expensive now because there’s limited supply on the market and they’re a new product. A 2015 Zoe is about £6-7k and that would cost more than a Fiesta of similar spec to buy new. Once prices are cheaper and the market has been flooded why would they be any more expensive?
Add in the fact you’ll be paying double for your fuel plus extra on tax and likely by that point insurance, plus any road charges for ULEZs. It would still be a stupid financial decision even if your £500 car was now £800 or even £1k.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
That’s the suped up version, the doors are an added extra (serious).
NorthernWisdom
Well-Known Member
Well with batteries needing to be replaced, you'd already be taking something of a chance to buy an electric car with a battery coming up to five years' old, unless you had the money to replace that... and you're looking at up to about £3.5k for that. Find me a second hand car for £500 that's four years old.
You're confusing up front outlay with running costs. It's always been cheaper to *run* a brand new car with warranty than a 35yo Lancia Y10. There's a reason why most don't do that, however!
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Nick
Administrator
The thing with a 2015 Zoe for £6k is that the battery is leased as well so you have another monthly outgoing on it.
If you want it without a lease, probably double the price.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
What’s the equivalent of a Zoe in petrol - a Clio?
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Again though that’s a function of current early adopter tech. As I said in the last decade battery prices have come down 90%, so a 7 year old car is going to have an expensive battery. Once we get to mass production and a proper competitive market, plus the huge amount of R&D that’s been flooded into it battery prices will get lower and lower, that’s the main reason electric cars are predicted to be cheaper than petrol to produce by 2027.
So at worst @NorthernWisdom is going to have to drive around in a banger for another couple of years post 2040, but he’ll be no means be in the majority or even be better off once the other costs are considered. The average age of a car on the road is just under 9 years, the average age until scrappage is just under 14. To think that won’t go down with a bug push for people to change is ridiculous.
As I say it reminds me of skeptics before every technological change ever. People are always caught unaware by exponential growth.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Nah they’re not that nice, maybe a Fiesta? I don’t know Renaults range to give an equivalent, but I know the Zoe.
NorthernWisdom
Well-Known Member
Someone also needs to pay for houses to have charge points on them (and in some instances this won't just be installing the charger, but re-wiring the bloody house so it can cope) - and facilities for people who only have street parking. Someone has to pay for that, or change won't happen quickly, as it's a bunch of up front costs.
Nick
Administrator
You can pick up a newer, decent Clio for the same price with no limits on mileage.
Nick
Administrator
Yes cheaper to produce.... Doesn't always mean cheaper to buy.
Such a waste to scrap a perfectly fine 14 year old car though, isn't it?
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Grendel
Well-Known Member
There are 6 million cars over 13 years and and five times more old cars that there were 20 years prior - the aged parc is growing
Nick
Administrator
Which is my point a Zoe starts at £30 grand
Oh I was comparing to a used one at 6.5k.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
New Clio is £18 spec may differ but the RV doesn’t seem better yet - I guess that will improve but its a long way to go
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Well for a start all new buildings or other scale renovations as of now are required to have charging in place. There’s no funding now for adding one yourself but the focus is on street and public charging. But again we’re talking 18 years time when the scale and used market for these things will have expanded significantly. And you are talking real edge cases here, in a place where they can afford a car, but not enough for an electric car and live somewhere where a point either hasn’t or can’t be installed and there’s no local charging infrastructure and none at work, but they’re still willing to pay through the nose for fuel and tax.
We are talking about whether the majority of cars on the road will be electric, not whether one guy in a flat in rural Wales will have difficulty charging his.
This is happening. That alone provides a huge economic incentive to solve all these problems.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Which is my point a Zoe starts at £30 grand
Yes now it does. But in five years it won’t.
NorthernWisdom
Well-Known Member
You're really not. This is the standard for most road users, spend more than they'd like to, because they can't afford the costs to be able to spend less.
Again, we're talking about changing things quickly, and that needs assistance otherwise it just won't happen, the barriers will prevent it.
Not only that... but we're in thrall to the car makers because they offer employment. In terms of scrappage, what kind of system are we setting up, encouraging people to scrap cars more quickly? Fine if you're changing for a purpose, but surely any new technology aiming at being encironmentally friendly should be encouraging people to keep their cars for longer, and so reduce the energy cost of producing another one?
But Stellantis would not be overly happy with that...!
Grendel
Well-Known Member
I think you will be disappointed
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
I think you’re massively overestimating the number of people that drive bangers. I’ve already given you the stats on average age of scrappage. On that alone and no behaviour shifts then by 2044 most petrol cars have been scrapped. And there will be a behaviour shift.
Two thirds of homes have off road parking. I already know people who charge at work or on the weekly shop, it will become commonplace to have electric car charging points in car parks like we do disabled spaces. It will become commonplace for works car parks to offer it.
And again, because this doesn’t seem to be getting through: electric cars will soon be cheaper to buy than petrol cars. So by 2040 you are claiming a majority of people will be unable to access electric cars. Are you sure about this?
NorthernWisdom
Well-Known Member
You're coming across as rather elitest in this, you're saying because the middle and upper classes can manage it, the working classes should be abandoned and given no assistance - tough on them.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
6 million drive cars over 13 years old a 500 percentage increase in that area of the parc in 20 years
skybluejelly
Well-Known Member
Yep ..and you try and part ex a battery lease Zoe and nobody wants to know at a sensible price , our one at work was down to 39 miles on a full charge which was a nightmare when you wanted to go look at a car more than 30 miles away..
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fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
Interesting that forecourts are being bought up, are they considered prime real estate as most former forecourts don't seem that way?
Nick
Administrator
I don't even know anybody with an electric car.
I know plenty without off road parking too. Who's buying them a house with a drive?
Grendel
Well-Known Member
He is the man with the five computers way of thinking when it comes to how the automotive industry giants work and control the market
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
This guy seems to think so. Or at least seems to think there’s an opportunity there. Point is that’s what happens when you put targets like 2030 in, it focuses minds on opportunities there.
Green techs biggest issue has always been the price premium only offset by the warm fuzzies from helping the climate. Next 5-10 years that’s going to shift massively where clean tech is both better performing in many ways and cheaper. Once that happens capitalism takes over and change happens fast.
Alan Dugdales Moustache
Well-Known Member
If anyone has an older petrol engine car, say 10 years old , regularly serviced and average miles , why on earth would anyone in their right mind scrap it, given the cost to the environment in having it dismantled and the cost to the environment the production of a new electric car . No thanks. I'm not buying into it.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
These ones?
Six Major Automakers Agree to End Gas Car Sales Globally by 2040
Ford, GM, Mercedes-Benz, and others, along with 30 nations, signed a pledge to eliminate sales of new gas and diesel-powered cars by 2035 in “leading markets.”
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Because we’re already selling EVs as fast as we can make them, no one is spinning up a production line because you’d decided the Maestro has to go a year early.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
These ones?
Six Major Automakers Agree to End Gas Car Sales Globally by 2040
Ford, GM, Mercedes-Benz, and others, along with 30 nations, signed a pledge to eliminate sales of new gas and diesel-powered cars by 2035 in “leading markets.”www.caranddriver.com
They signed a pledge purely as they think they can do the PHEV con - also they don’t sell any cars to customers
Grendel
Well-Known Member
There’s a 6 month waiting list for diesel jaguars at the moment (they couldn’t give them away 24 months ago). It’s not demand related it’s supply due post Covid issues in China
Greggs
Well-Known Member
Where do you charge them if you live in a terraced house? Or are they just for people who can afford a detached mansion with charging ports in the double garage??
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
PHEV sales have dropped off a cliff, consumers aren’t buying the con. What are you even trying to say at this point? That the worlds car manufacturers will just refuse to follow existing legislation in major markets and they’ll be allowed to because they are so powerful?
Grendel
Well-Known Member
What if a family of 4 live in a house abs they all have a car?
