Do you want to discuss boring politics? (20 Viewers)

[Brighton Sky Blue]

And also the cost:benefit. My partner is going back to work next month after 12 months’ maternity. We’re in the fortunate position that we get 15 hours free childcare per week (universal thing now from 9mths) so she’s going back for 15 hours a week. If she were to go back full-time it might make us an extra £200 per month after you deduct the additional childcare costs. Is it worth slogging for £2.50 an hour beyond the free allowance?

Universal if you’re in work. I do not count as that and both parents need to be to qualify.

Postgrad parents get jack shit. So we will have to burn through our savings to pay the mortgage in the mean time.

 

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[wingy]

And also the cost:benefit. My partner is going back to work next month after 12 months’ maternity. We’re in the fortunate position that we get 15 hours free childcare per week (universal thing now from 9mths) so she’s going back for 15 hours a week. If she were to go back full-time it might make us an extra £200 per month after you deduct the additional childcare costs. Is it worth slogging for £2.50 an hour beyond the free allowance?

Frankly,No, no incentive at all!

 

[shmmeee]

Good question. The data published is on pure ethnicity which includes British born people of other BME origin. I'm not sure if there is any data collected on immigration status.

A lot of the data isn’t there. It’s why you have to fall back to white British and stuff

I don't think many people think Farage isn't savvy. By saying he's a charlatan and snake oil salesman it's kind of implying he has the intelligence to pander to a crowd and get the image right even though his background is massively removed from "one of us".

He's admitted he's not overly fussed about immigration - it just gets him votes. His main benefactors and people he wants to help are the rich, and they benefit more from immigration because it keeps their wage costs down, and he'll go for that everytime. He also favours massive tax cuts for the rich at the expense of decimating public services. The Reform manifesto pretty much said as much. He IS a charlatan playing to the crowd and telling them what they want to hear, not the reality or what his actual intentions are.

Biggest donors by far are the oil industry.

 

[Captain Dart]

2

People crossing the channel on small boats really isn't the issue though is it. As much as many people love to think it is.

It is certainly a huge political issue as well as the taxpayer paying SERCO et al to take out 5 year contracts on private residential properties to house them which is doing nothing to discourage crossings, the number last year was 44k, numbers have risen this year.

Serco Group plc: Shareholders, Shareholding Structure - MarketScreener UK

Find the distribution by types of shareholders of Serco Group plc listed on the BOERSE MUENCHEN stock exchange. Discover the geographical origin of the shareholders of Serco Group plc.

uk.marketscreener.com

However I am well aware most immigration is legal and it was a Tory policy after Brexit to bring ever more people in, net immigration was 728,000 in 2024, the year before it was 20% higher.

The Home Office actually publish a lot of data.


Long term legal immigration to increase the tax take solves nothing while the birth rate is declining everywhere, it just kicks the can down the road a bit, the favourite strategy of scummy politicians.

 

[MalcSB]

2

It is certainly a huge political issue as well as the taxpayer paying SERCO et al to take out 5 year contracts on private residential properties to house them which is doing nothing to discourage crossings, the number last year was 44k, numbers have risen this year.

Serco Group plc: Shareholders, Shareholding Structure - MarketScreener UK

Find the distribution by types of shareholders of Serco Group plc listed on the BOERSE MUENCHEN stock exchange. Discover the geographical origin of the shareholders of Serco Group plc.

uk.marketscreener.com

However I am well aware most immigration is legal and it was a Tory policy after Brexit to bring ever more people in, net immigration was 728,000 in 2024, the year before it was 20% higher.

The Home Office actually publish a lot of data.
View attachment 43007

Long term legal immigration to increase the tax take solves nothing while the birth rate is declining everywhere, it just kicks the can down the road a bit, the favourite strategy of scummy politicians.

Government defends National Insurance exemption in UK-India deal

Opposition parties claim the new trade agreement means Indian workers will be cheaper for employers to hire.

www.bbc.co.uk

Nothing for the right wing to see and complain about out here, is there?Doesn't even increase the tax take.



The lack of action is patently obvious.

 

[MalcSB]

People crossing the channel on small boats really isn't the issue though is it. As much as many people love to think it is.

The boats are an icon on which people can focus their ire. It doesn't mean that they should casually be dismissed so easily as irrelevant.

Get the numbers down and that will be just as easily recognised by the right. Stop bending our sovereignty and legal system to the ECHR will also be recognised. Got to be worth a shot , surely?

 

[DT-R]

I couldn't tell you the split if im honest id be making it up

It's usually around 20%. Though I'm sure it'll differ slightly from council to council but not by much.

Sent from my SM-S711B using Tapatalk

 

[MalcSB]

Do migrants get priority for housing, genuinely? I don't know. I do know that we have not built any public housing on any meaningful scale for 35 years which has led to an absolute scarcity of supply vs demand.

Is the NHS struggling because of migration? The biggest driver of hospital use for non-elderly population is deprivation, this coincides quite often with ethnicity but is not exclusive to ethnicity. Somebody aged between 1 and 4 is twice as likely to be referred to a consultant if they live in the most deprived decile than somebody in the least deprived decile. By the time people reach their 20s, it is nearly 3 times the likelihood. Where's the outcry? What are governments going to do about this? Some of it might be explained by the rise of personal insurance but it's unlikely.

There have been 15 years or more of governments telling the public the public realm has to look completely shit because they cannot afford otherwise, look at the bin strikes in Cov and now those in Birmingham, they could be solved in an instant but the government of the times was unwilling to do so. In spending on public services like health, a complete unwillingness to look reality in the face.

I don't have a position on whether immigration is too high or not, it feels high but I think like I've said above, everything feels a lot worse because of the context.

Would you consider part of the realities to be looked in the face to be available funding?

 

[MalcSB]

Same shit happened in telecomms, Huawei took out UK industry, UK management was unimaginative, innovation and quality was not really pursued, partly because Chinese/Far East workers have a better work ethic and more to gain by being successful.

Do the Chinese / Far East workers have a better work ethic and more to gain because of the rewards they receive by being successful?

Could that approach possibly work in the UK if more rewards could be kept by those with a better worth ethic

 

[MalcSB]

Do migrants get priority for housing, genuinely? I don't know. I do know that we have not built any public housing on any meaningful scale for 35 years which has led to an absolute scarcity of supply vs demand.

Is the NHS struggling because of migration? The biggest driver of hospital use for non-elderly population is deprivation, this coincides quite often with ethnicity but is not exclusive to ethnicity. Somebody aged between 1 and 4 is twice as likely to be referred to a consultant if they live in the most deprived decile than somebody in the least deprived decile. By the time people reach their 20s, it is nearly 3 times the likelihood. Where's the outcry? What are governments going to do about this? Some of it might be explained by the rise of personal insurance but it's unlikely.

There have been 15 years or more of governments telling the public the public realm has to look completely shit because they cannot afford otherwise, look at the bin strikes in Cov and now those in Birmingham, they could be solved in an instant but the government of the times was unwilling to do so. In spending on public services like health, a complete unwillingness to look reality in the face.

I don't have a position on whether immigration is too high or not, it feels high but I think like I've said above, everything feels a lot worse because of the context.

Migrants per se don’t get preference for social housing, however the availability of homelessness assistance for survivors of human trafficking or slavery granted temporary permission to stay (TPS) are eligible for a housing allocation and homelessness assistance. The UK’s homeless could see that as , priority access to the type of accommodation that might have been appropriate for them as well.

To be fair, he did like a beer and a curry with his staff during lockdown. Was that worse than Boris having a bit of birthday cake?

Both as bad as each other?

One was forced to resign. One should resign for the good of the nation.

What is Beergate and why does it matter?

Keir Starmer having a beer and takeaway has potentially become a resigning matter after reopening of investigation

www.theguardian.com

Did Boris actually have cake?
Regardless, both as bad as each other and you are suggesting that beer and curry was a more regular occurrence. They should either both have gone, or neither. Starmer may have got away with something. I won’t mention Rayner.

 

[MalcSB]

Genuine Q cos I don’t know but (bear with me here hypotheticals) if all immigrants are poor and move to deprived areas how can you disentangle that’s immigration and what’s deprevation?

Chicken and egg?

 

[Sick Boy]

Japan are trying to overcome the problem with technological approaches.

The real question is why are birth rates falling everywhere, particuarly in well developed countries.
View attachment 43004

The cost of living and the lack of affordable housing.

 

[shmmeee]

The cost of living and the lack of affordable housing.

Ah yes, back in the 1800s when the working man had spacious housing and cheap abundant food.

It's opportunity cost IMO. It costs me to give up my career and have kids, the better off I am the worst a deal that looks.

 

[Sick Boy]

Ah yes, back in the 1800s when the working man had spacious housing and cheap abundant food.

It's opportunity cost IMO. It costs me to give up my career and have kids, the better off I am the worst a deal that looks.

A lot of the population, especially in large cities in London and the south, are having to pay a considerable amount of their monthly wages on rent. If you're unable to save for a deposit and have no disposable income, you're hardly in a position to start a family.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Migrants per se don’t get preference for social housing, however the availability of homelessness assistance for survivors of human trafficking or slavery granted temporary permission to stay (TPS) are eligible for a housing allocation and homelessness assistance. The UK’s homeless could see that as , priority access to the type of accommodation that might have been appropriate for them as well.

Did Boris actually have cake?
Regardless, both as bad as each other and you are suggesting that beer and curry was a more regular occurrence. They should either both have gone, or neither. Starmer may have got away with something. I won’t mention Rayner.

Homelessness just shouldn’t be a thing in this country, but that’s a separate issue.

 

[shmmeee]

A lot of the population, especially in large cities in London and the south, are having to pay a considerable amount of their monthly wages on rent. If you're unable to save for a deposit and have no disposable income, you're hardly in a position to start a family.

Sure but compared to 100 years ago? Compared to Africa?

The biggest families I know are the poorest, 3/4/5 kids each. The richest couples I know most are childless. It’s an excuse. On a global scale fertility goes down as wealth goes up. Even places like China as they develop fertility drops below replenishment. Are you seriously saying that’s because their cost of living got too high?

If you want kids you can afford them whenever. What people want if they’re honest is to not sacrifice their living standard as a childless person. Certainly that’s what people I know who are childless admit, they like the holidays and the weekends away. Not that they’re scared to lose their spare bedroom.

If it was cost of living this graph would basically be reversed:

 

[Sick Boy]

Sure but compared to 100 years ago? Compared to Africa?

The biggest families I know are the poorest, 3/4/5 kids each. The richest couples I know most are childless. It’s an excuse. On a global scale fertility goes down as wealth goes up. Even places like China as they develop fertility drops below replenishment. Are you seriously saying that’s because their cost of living got too high?

If you want kids you can afford them whenever. What people want if they’re honest is to not sacrifice their living standard as a childless person. Certainly that’s what people I know who are childless admit, they like the holidays and the weekends away. Not that they’re scared to lose their spare bedroom.

If it was cost of living this graph would basically be reversed:


View attachment 43026

I think for a lot of people, it's financial concerns due to not being homeowners, rather than not being willing to give up weekends away. I know some couples in London who moved in with parents to save for house deposits but for the majority this isn't possible.

From a personal point of view, i'm only now in a position to have one and I'd be classed as an older parent these days. I was paying anything from £500-£850 in rent for around 10 years that gave me zero room to even think about starting a family. I / we would have been living in poverty if we'd had a child then and that's not even considering stuff like childcare either or one of us having to stop working to care for the child and then have even less money / not be able to pay rent.

 

[The Philosopher]

Do the Chinese / Far East workers have a better work ethic and more to gain because of the rewards they receive by being successful?

Could that approach possibly work in the UK if more rewards could be kept by those with a better worth ethic

One should never study work ethics by race. There was once a study to see why Asians in the USA From deprived backgrounds excelled others academically. Even though the results might have been a useful study, it is not a book to open.

 

[The Philosopher]

I think for a lot of people, it's financial concerns due to not being homeowners, rather than not being willing to give up weekends away. I know some couples in London who moved in with parents to save for house deposits but for the majority this isn't possible.

From a personal point of view, i'm only now in a position to have one and I'd be classed as an older parent these days. I was paying anything from £500-£850 in rent for around 10 years that gave me zero room to even think about starting a family.

Don’t overlook the propensity of people being single and living on their own fur longer. Obviously, people leaving it later to cohabitate/marry means more homes of single occupancy.

Financial incentives for singles to house share might be an answer.

 

[Sick Boy]

Don’t overlook the propensity of people being single and living on their own fur longer. Obviously, people leaving it later to cohabitate/marry means more homes of single occupancy.

Financial incentives for singles to house share might be an answer.

I lived alone for 4/5 years in my 20s and it was very difficult financially. Agree about the financial incentives - it wasn't actually considerably less to rent a room in a house share than a one-bedroom flat due to landlords taking advantage of the situation.

 

[The Philosopher]

It’s important to logic-line through the probability / possibility scenarios.

Worst case:

An oversupply of houses would be an absolute economic disaster, declining birth rate, declining population, reduced demand for housing, house prices fall to a level less than equity (ie negative equity) / debt / mass bankruptcy and repossession, government having to step in - the consequences that follow. Nightmare fuel for the UK economy (so reliant on saddling humans with debt that they are obliged to pay in order to live) is if we have a house price crash to the extent that humans just go bankrupt and demand social housing and the civil unrest that would ensue in such a scenario.

“Build more houses” is a shallow conclusion.

Go to Tile Hill and Canley, see the prefab houses thrown up after the second war. We could do the same quickly and easily if we really wanted to; there are reasons why we don’t.

Never underestimate how politicians are controlled by financiers and foreign lobbyists.

 

[mmttww]

“Build more houses” is a shallow conclusion.

Someone more cynical than me might suggest you own property and don't want to see the rate at which it gains value slowing.

 

[The Philosopher]

What I’m saying is that it is not in the interests of certain financial institutions to reduce house prices.

Building too many will reduce demand and hence prices.

Reducing immigration would reduce demand for housing.

Always follow the money.

 

[mmttww]

What I’m saying is that it is not in the interests of certain financial institutions to reduce house prices.

Understand that, but prices might just go up more slowly. It's not a good reason not to build homes.

 

[The Philosopher]

Someone more cynical than me might suggest you own property and don't want to see the rate at which it gains value slowing.

I’m not embarrassed to say that yes, I own a fair property portfolio here and abroad. The value fluctuation don’t concern me - I have zero debt. The gains in value aren’t always helpful with new taxation rules: see farmers for details.

 

[The Philosopher]

Understand that, but prices might just go up more slowly. It's not a good reason not to build homes.

China thought the same:

 

[mmttww]

China thought the same...

If your first comparison is China, that feels like clutching at straws. Isn't going to persuade me we don't need to build more homes.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Sure but compared to 100 years ago? Compared to Africa?

The biggest families I know are the poorest, 3/4/5 kids each. The richest couples I know most are childless. It’s an excuse. On a global scale fertility goes down as wealth goes up. Even places like China as they develop fertility drops below replenishment. Are you seriously saying that’s because their cost of living got too high?

If you want kids you can afford them whenever. What people want if they’re honest is to not sacrifice their living standard as a childless person. Certainly that’s what people I know who are childless admit, they like the holidays and the weekends away. Not that they’re scared to lose their spare bedroom.

If it was cost of living this graph would basically be reversed:


View attachment 43026

What a load of shit.

 

[The Philosopher]

If your first comparison is China, that feels like clutching at straws. Isn't going to persuade me we don't need to build more homes.

https://aecom.com/without-limits/article/on-the-road-to-recovery/#:~:text=Italy's%20property%20values%20have%20dropped,locations%20suffering%20even%20greater%20decline.

ok. Europe.

 

[The Philosopher]

That’s

What a load of shit.

a bit harsh.

There are some merits to his thoughts.

 

[shmmeee]

What a load of shit.

Solid argument. I’m convinced.

 

[shmmeee]

What I’m saying is that it is not in the interests of certain financial institutions to reduce house prices.

Building too many will reduce demand and hence prices.

Reducing immigration would reduce demand for housing.

Always follow the money.

And these financial institutions happened to become greedy exactly as the town and country planning act came in and right to buy later on. What are the odds?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Solid argument. I’m convinced.

Well to put it bluntly, we are going from being able to pay the mortgage to quite possibly needing to sell the house.

So you can piss off with the ‘it’s just about holidays’ bollocks.

 

[shmmeee]

Well to put it bluntly, we are going from being able to pay the mortgage to quite possibly needing to sell the house.

So you can piss off with the ‘it’s just about holidays’ bollocks.

Taking the emotion out of it all the data is on my side. Fertility rates started dropping in the sixties. Are we really saying that was peak living for everyone?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Taking the emotion out of it all the data is on my side. Fertility rates started dropping in the sixties. Are we really saying that was peak living for everyone?

Economically it might have been.