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Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (20 Viewers)

  • Thread starter BackRoomRummermill
  • Start date Feb 23, 2020
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shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,946
Sky Blue Pete said:
Have you seen anything? Anecdotally ive been told very few people catch it again and Boris self isolating even though he had it bad!!

Confused
Click to expand...

Nothing. It’s weird because it seems like vital info but I never see it mentioned. Maybe variants change everything? I am not a virologist.
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,947
shmmeee said:
Nothing. It’s weird because it seems like vital info but I never see it mentioned. Maybe variants change everything? I am not a virologist.
Click to expand...
Me neither
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,948
Found this from last month. Answer seems to be: definitely for 6-9 months, probably longer but we don’t have the data to know:

How long does covid-19 immunity last?

Many questions remain about both natural and vaccine induced immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Chris Baraniuk reviews what we know so far This is difficult to say definitively. When the body’s immune system responds to an infection, it isn’t always clear how long any immunity that develops will persist...
www.bmj.com
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,949
shmmeee said:
Found this from last month. Answer seems to be: definitely for 6-9 months, probably longer but we don’t have the data to know:

How long does covid-19 immunity last?

Many questions remain about both natural and vaccine induced immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Chris Baraniuk reviews what we know so far This is difficult to say definitively. When the body’s immune system responds to an infection, it isn’t always clear how long any immunity that develops will persist...
www.bmj.com
Click to expand...

Some of the stuff I've read suggests a belief that while antibodies diminish over time, t-cell memory does not so subsequent infections will be less severe. Added to vaccines it should hopefully be relatively benign.
 
Reactions: wingy and CCFCSteve
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,950
shmmeee said:
Nothing. It’s weird because it seems like vital info but I never see it mentioned. Maybe variants change everything? I am not a virologist.
Click to expand...
I suspect it's needing enough time for strong hypotheses to be tested properly - and by definition of what you're looking for, that can take a fair old while. And information that proves to be wrong could be pretty bad wrt influencing peoples' behaviour.
 
Reactions: CCFCSteve and shmmeee

Nick

Administrator
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,951
Sky Blue Pete said:
Lol
Click to expand...

Which is it?

Deaths pretty much caused by it or deaths from people who had tested positive within the last 28 days?
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,952
Nick said:
Which is it?

Deaths pretty much caused by it or deaths from people who had tested positive within the last 28 days?
Click to expand...
Oh give it a rest
 
Reactions: Deleted member 9744 and Deleted member 5849

Nick

Administrator
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,953
fernandopartridge said:
Oh give it a rest
Click to expand...

Is it taboo to ask now?

Which one is it?
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,954
Nick said:
Is it taboo to ask now?

Which one is it?
Click to expand...

Nick we’ve been over this 1000 times.

Cause of death isn’t an exact science. COVID tends to make existing conditions worse. The most reliable way to know how many COVID is killing is excess deaths but even there we know lockdown reduced deaths in lots of other areas (e.g. car crashes) so even that will undercount.

What matters isnt “is this measure exactly right with no error” but “is this measure consistent”
 
Reactions: oakey and Deleted member 5849
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,955
Our mate Piers is having fun.

 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,956
Deleted member 5849 said:
Our mate Piers is having fun.

Click to expand...

He should be arrested. Don’t care what for.
 
Reactions: Marty, Sick Boy and CCFCSteve
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,957
shmmeee said:
He should be arrested. Don’t care what for.
Click to expand...
'Being Piers Corbyn'.
 
Reactions: CCFCSteve and shmmeee

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,958
Nick said:
Is it taboo to ask now?

Which one is it?
Click to expand...

It's just a big coincidence that a lot of people with a positive covid test happen to die within 28 days of that test obviously

The reduction in the number of deaths due to the vaccine disproves the nonsense behind your conspiracy theory
 

hill83

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,959
Nick said:
Which is it?

Deaths pretty much caused by it or deaths from people who had tested positive within the last 28 days?
Click to expand...

Yes
 
Reactions: robbiekeane, Sky Blue Pete and Deleted member 5849

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,960
MusicDating said:
So herd immunity is impossible as you'll always have a significant percentage whose antibodies have dropped off (be it jabbed or having caught it previously).

The current approach is the correct one then, let's just get on with it?
Click to expand...
It’s not impossible. It needs a large number of adults to grow the fuck up and get vaccinated. Hopefully then the scare stories regarding the delta variant prove to be incorrect and we don’t have to start vaccinating younger and younger children to take up the slack from “adults”.
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,961
So my daughter tested positive with Cov-ID 5 days ago (from school no less) Was particularly anxious as she is on immuno-suppressants and was told to shield throughout the first initial lockdown, and we have tried really hard to not expose her to the chance of getting it.

So far, and with fingers crossed, she is OK other than being a bit lacklustre, grumpy and a reduced sense of smell.
 
Reactions: wingy, Sick Boy, clint van damme and 5 others
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,962
Ian1779 said:
So my daughter tested positive with Cov-ID 5 days ago (from school no less) Was particularly anxious as she is on immuno-suppressants and was told to shield throughout the first initial lockdown, and we have tried really hard to not expose her to the chance of getting it.

So far, and with fingers crossed, she is OK other than being a bit lacklustre, grumpy and a reduced sense of smell.
Click to expand...
I don;t know if that deserves a like for the second bit, or a sad face for the first! I suppose overall it's a win so far(!)
 
Reactions: wingy, skybluetony176 and Ian1779

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,963
Nick said:
Which is it?

Deaths pretty much caused by it or deaths from people who had tested positive within the last 28 days?
Click to expand...
We don’t have a figure for deaths caused by Covid other than number of deaths above the previous 5 year average. About 150000 on last counts.

The figure for those who’ve died having tested positive within the previous 28 days is the figure referred to each day

roughly 129000

We don’t ultimately know as one doesnt always know the one specific thing kills someone and also often many different aspects make up issues that lead to a loss of life

however I was shocked to find that 600000 people die in the uk each year! Although last year it was 698000mainly due to Covid 19

Even so that’s only (only) 14% increase
 
Last edited: Jul 21, 2021

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,964
Ian1779 said:
So my daughter tested positive with Cov-ID 5 days ago (from school no less) Was particularly anxious as she is on immuno-suppressants and was told to shield throughout the first initial lockdown, and we have tried really hard to not expose her to the chance of getting it.

So far, and with fingers crossed, she is OK other than being a bit lacklustre, grumpy and a reduced sense of smell.
Click to expand...
Sounds like me always
 
Reactions: CCFCSteve

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,965
Deleted member 5849 said:
I don;t know if that deserves a like for the second bit, or a sad face for the first! I suppose overall it's a win so far(!)
Click to expand...
It’s a strange one - you spend time being terrified that she is more at risk (even though you don’t actually know how much for certain) and then it appears - so far at least - that her immune system can cope, even when it is suppressed.
She is in line to be vaccinated once they start the roll out to vulnerable kids… so wonder how that will work if she’s had it?
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete and CCFCSteve
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,966
shmmeee said:
He should be arrested. Don’t care what for.
Click to expand...

It’s in the genes

Sorry, couldn’t resist

shmmeee said:
Nothing. It’s weird because it seems like vital info but I never see it mentioned. Maybe variants change everything? I am not a virologist.
Click to expand...

That’s what my unscientific mind thought as well, like different variants of flu can be caught every year or so. I heard a modeller/scientist saying the numbers of people getting it who’ve been vaccinated compared to those who’ve caught Covid previously, indicate body generated antibodies currently appear more effective than vaccine. Not seen the evidence to back that up though. Also this is early stages as well

This might be more symptomatic contagion though and maybe gov/NHS dont want people who’ve had it to think they’re untouchable and risk transmission. Who knows. As has been mentioned only time and detailed studies will confirm
 
Last edited: Jul 21, 2021
Reactions: shmmeee

Nick

Administrator
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,967
shmmeee said:
Nick we’ve been over this 1000 times.

Cause of death isn’t an exact science. COVID tends to make existing conditions worse. The most reliable way to know how many COVID is killing is excess deaths but even there we know lockdown reduced deaths in lots of other areas (e.g. car crashes) so even that will undercount.

What matters isnt “is this measure exactly right with no error” but “is this measure consistent”
Click to expand...

Which is why I was trying to confirm. I didn't say cause of death.

I asked Pete if it was anybody who died who had a positive COVID test in the last 28 days.

It's a simple question, you still didn't answer it.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,968
Nick said:
Which is why I was trying to confirm. I didn't say cause of death.

I asked Pete if it was anybody who died who had a positive COVID test in the last 28 days.

It's a simple question, you still didn't answer it.
Click to expand...

It is that and it has even been reported verbatim like that for months on end.
 
Reactions: Nick

Nick

Administrator
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,969
Brighton Sky Blue said:
It is that and it has even been reported verbatim like that for months on end.
Click to expand...

Thankyou!
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,970
Sky Blue Pete said:
We don’t have a figure for deaths caused by Covid other than number of deaths above the previous 5 year average. About 150000 on last counts.

The figure for those who’ve died having tested positive within the previous 28 days is the figure referred to each day

roughly 129000

We don’t ultimately know as one doesnt always know the one specific thing kills someone and also often many different aspects make up issues that lead to a loss of life

however I was shocked to find that 600000 people die in the uk each year! Although last year it was 698000mainly due to Covid 19

Even so that’s only (only) 14% increase
Click to expand...

People forget that a lot of the deaths are caused by secondary issues caused by Covid-19. Pneumonia caused by Covid-19 is one of teh biggest reasons people die but they wouldn't be counted in the nonsense "did they die of covid" figures people want.

*wait for someone to mention being hit by a bus
 
Reactions: oakey
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,971
David O'Day said:
People forget that a lot of the deaths are caused by secondary issues caused by Covid-19. Pneumonia caused by Covid-19 is one of teh biggest reasons people die but they wouldn't be counted in the nonsense "did they die of covid" figures people want.

*wait for someone to mention being hit by a bus
Click to expand...

There is a separate count for Covid mentioned on death certificate anyway
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,972
Brighton Sky Blue said:
There is a separate count for Covid mentioned on death certificate anyway
Click to expand...

Yes the ONS figures which are likely more accurate but much higher so strangely don't get mentioned in government press releases.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,973
David O'Day said:
Yes the ONS figures which are likely more accurate but much higher so strangely don't get mentioned in government press releases.
Click to expand...

I’m sure they are though I have personally known cases of it being put on the certificate despite the deceased testing negative and not even displaying symptoms. It is imperfect but as long as the error is low enough it’s the best we’ve got
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,974
Brighton Sky Blue said:
I’m sure they are though I have personally known cases of it being put on the certificate despite the deceased testing negative and not even displaying symptoms. It is imperfect but as long as the error is low enough it’s the best we’ve got
Click to expand...

They don't have a silly 28 cut off
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,975
Confirmed cases 44k. I never get too excited about reduction in speed of increase until we see it over 4-5 days but last couple have been better*

Covid inpatients in England still averaging an increase of around 150 per day (4k in total)…don’t want to speak too soon as there’s a long way to go but this has been pretty stable for the past two weeks


*i read Scotland’s cases dropped a few days after they got knocked out of Euros (the benefits of being shit !), not sure that will quite happen for us with other restrictions being lifted, in particular reopening of clubs, but hopefully the increase will settle down.
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,976
CCFCSteve said:
Confirmed cases 44k. I never get too excited about reduction in speed of increase until we see it over 4-5 days but last couple have been better*

Covid inpatients in England still averaging an increase of around 150 per day (4k in total)…don’t want to speak too soon as there’s a long way to go but this has been pretty stable for the past two weeks


*i read Scotland’s cases dropped a few days after they got knocked out of Euros (the benefits of being shit !), not sure that will quite happen for us with other restrictions being lifted, in particular reopening of clubs, but hopefully the increase will settle down.
Click to expand...

The schools now being shut will hopefully offset things a fair bit.
 
Reactions: MusicDating, CCFCSteve and Sky Blue Pete

MusicDating

Euro 2016 Prediction League Champion!!
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,977
Hopefully the 'pingdemic' will have an impact too. I suspect they've not changed the settings of the app so that they can have a 'lockdown' by proxy. Which neatly offsets the inevitable increase of sticking to freedom day despite the data...
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,978
MusicDating said:
Hopefully the 'pingdemic' will have an impact too. I suspect they've not changed the settings of the app so that they can have a 'lockdown' by proxy. Which neatly offsets the inevitable increase of sticking to freedom day despite the data...
Click to expand...

yeah, my concern is that this will backfire eventually though, with people deleting app and then not knowing if they’ve been near someone with Covid...and therefore not testing. A few have said before, just move it to testing if you’re double jabbed and get pinged now, rather than wait til 16 Aug. If it’s correct that something 14 out of 15 people pinged haven’t got Covid that’s crazy. Also additional incentive for people to get double jabbed
 
Reactions: Brighton Sky Blue
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,979
CCFCSteve said:
yeah, my concern is that this will backfire eventually though, with people deleting app and then not knowing if they’ve been near someone with Covid...and therefore not testing. A few have said before, just move it to testing if you’re double jabbed and get pinged now, rather than wait til 16 Aug. If it’s correct that something 14 out of 15 people pinged haven’t got Covid that’s crazy. Also additional incentive for people to get double jabbed
Click to expand...

If you know you don’t have it makes less than no sense to stay away. I can’t believe that hasn’t always been the ruling
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jul 21, 2021
  • #49,980
MusicDating said:
Hopefully the 'pingdemic' will have an impact too. I suspect they've not changed the settings of the app so that they can have a 'lockdown' by proxy. Which neatly offsets the inevitable increase of sticking to freedom day despite the data...
Click to expand...

You are crediting them with far too much intelligence and foresight.
 
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