Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (55 Viewers)

[Brighton Sky Blue]

The counter-argument to this is that people can (and should!) be able to change their behaviour once they’ve been vaccinated, and telling them otherwise only discourages them from getting it. These vaccines seem to be effective to an unprecedented degree, so telling people their lives won’t change if they take them is just wasting the amazing opportunity the scientists have given us.

The idea that you can still transmit the virus once vaccinated hasn’t been disproven, but there isn’t a huge amount of evidence that it’s ever been a problem with other major vaccines either. So again - are we looking a gift horse in the mouth by being ultra cautious?

Underselling the Vaccine (Published 2021)

And what else you need to know today.

www.nytimes.com

(One word of caution for all of the above - Israel has vaccinated more of its population than anyone. And right now they also have the highest new case rates in the world too. So the science isn’t settled, and clearly the un-vaccinated can’t let their guard down at all)

The messaging must emphasise that protection is not immediate and you need the second jab.

 

---

[Terry Gibson's perm]

This is where the government can help with messaging emphasising this

Government help you have been teaching from home to long it’s damaged your brain

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Government help you have been teaching from home to long it’s damaged your brain

My neighbours proudly declared ‘I’m fucking smashed already’ during my lessons this morning. Had to make a commentator esque apology for bad language

 

[NorthernWisdom]

The counter-argument to this is that people can (and should!) be able to change their behaviour once they’ve been vaccinated, and telling them otherwise only discourages them from getting it. These vaccines seem to be effective to an unprecedented degree, so telling people their lives won’t change if they take them is just wasting the amazing opportunity the scientists have given us.

The article is about after one only getting one dose, and before waiting the fortnight after the second dose.

(There's a secondary argument too, that we need more information about transmission, and whether the Oxford one in particular stops that. If not, it'd be wise not to until everybody you socialise with has been vaccinated, beyond going to the shop etc to annoy Nick, anyway.)

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

The article is about after one only getting one dose, and before waiting the fortnight after the second dose.

(There's a secondary argument too, that we need more information about transmission, and whether the Oxford one in particular stops that. If not, it'd be wise not to until everybody you socialise with has been vaccinated, beyond going to the shop etc to annoy Nick, anyway.)

Once the top 9 groups have had two jabs I would say that’s a green light for full reopening, with staggers before then.

 

[chiefdave]

Once the top 9 groups have had two jabs I would say that’s a green light for full reopening, with staggers before then.

Don't think we'll do an overnight open everything up but I agree that once you've done the top 9 groups we'll see things pretty rapidly opening. If they start opening things up and there's not a jump in cases then they can really speed up getting back to normal.

 

[fernandopartridge]

This isn't Johnson and Hancock just plucking an idea from thin air. Every scientist I've seen talk about this, has said it's the way to go. Like Brighton said, give more people a certain amount of protection, rather than less people more protection.

Father in law had his first jab and has been given a date for his second, around 10 weeks after his first. I presume everyone has been issued a second appointment.
For my wife it has been a massive comfort to know her dad has at least had the first jab and is more protected than before.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

The second para though is the danger, the extent of the protection conferred by the first jab is not as high as initially thought. The worry is that people relax their guard, they need to still behave with caution until the second jab.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

BBC news last night was a hard watch. Especially the 20 year old on a vent for 3 weeks with no previous health issues

Think it was this one

‘How do you prepare for people dying and dying?’

Senior mortician Hannah Leahy says the level of Covid fatalities is taking its toll on staff the Royal London Hospital.

www.bbc.co.uk

People die all the time of course but it’s still sad

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Don't think we'll do an overnight open everything up but I agree that once you've done the top 9 groups we'll see things pretty rapidly opening. If they start opening things up and there's not a jump in cases then they can really speed up getting back to normal.

I expect staggered reopening as and when full vaccination of the highest groups eases some of the NHS burden. Regional disparity in the pace of vaccination does make that harder though

 

[LastGarrison]

Are we suggesting that a bunch of 70+ year olds who, I would suggest, on the whole have abided by the Laws are suddenly going to completely change their mindset? And their families as well?

Personally I can’t see it.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Are we suggesting that a bunch of 70+ year olds who, I would suggest, on the whole have abided by the Laws are suddenly going to completely change their mindset? And their families as well?

Personally I can’t see it.

The messaging needs to be clear though, the government is keen to highlight the success of its vaccination programme which might dilute the fact that it's only a part vaccination. There are already murmurs of backbench Tories pushing for lockdown to be over as soon as the most vulnerable have had their first jab. If that happened the message it sends to people is that everything is OK.

 

[shmmeee]

Ex is back in hospital today, had to go grab the kids at lunch. Can’t keep any food down apparently, had real gastrointestinal issues. Last time they X-rayed her chest and said chest infection and sent her home.

I’ve never heard of these symptoms before, anyone else?

 

[wingy]

The messaging needs to be clear though, the government is keen to highlight the success of its vaccination programme which might dilute the fact that it's only a part vaccination. There are already murmurs of backbench Tories pushing for lockdown to be over as soon as the most vulnerable have had their first jab. If that happened the message it sends to people is that everything is OK.

Might be interesting to watch Israel's path and wait for some peer reviewed data, questions around the efficacy of the one dose of the Phizer vaccine.

 

[Skybluefaz]

1820 Deaths is a sobering number and a scandal that we are so far in to this and fucking it up worse now than we were in the first wave.

 

[NorthernWisdom]

1820 Deaths is a sobering number and a scandal that we are so far in to this and fucking it up worse now than we were in the first wave.

History would suggest this time was always likely to be the worst point.

That being said... maybe looking to warnings from history before various decisions based on the short-term, would have been handy!

 

[Skybluefaz]

History would suggest this time was always likely to be the worst point.

That being said... maybe looking to warnings from history before various decisions based on the short-term, would have been handy!

I suppose I'm being entirely reactionary to the number. Still, I really don't think it should be this bad. We could have done better.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

So when people poo poo’d the 4000 deaths figure it seems the chart wouldn’t have been far out if we’d kept schools and other parts of the economy open

1820 deaths today and 38000 infections which is coming down but it’s still large Isn’t it and will still result in 1140 hospitalisations and 380 deaths or so in a couple of weeks. So so sad

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Ex is back in hospital today, had to go grab the kids at lunch. Can’t keep any food down apparently, had real gastrointestinal issues. Last time they X-rayed her chest and said chest infection and sent her home.

I’ve never heard of these symptoms before, anyone else?

Yep check Covid symptoms in other countries like Canada. Lots of lots of other ones than temperature and loss of smell or the other two main ones

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Ex is back in hospital today, had to go grab the kids at lunch. Can’t keep any food down apparently, had real gastrointestinal issues. Last time they X-rayed her chest and said chest infection and sent her home.

I’ve never heard of these symptoms before, anyone else?

Oh and I hope she gets better really soon

 

[Brylowes]

Ok but it’s essentially a trial/study on the population. My concern is also the government’s track record in general is abysmal.

That’s my worry too, I just can’t help feeling that if there’s a way to mess up the vaccine rollout ‘no matter how small’ they’ll manage to find it.

 

[CCFCSteve]

So when people poo poo’d the 4000 deaths figure it seems the chart wouldn’t have been far out if we’d kept schools and other parts of the economy open

1820 deaths today and 38000 infections which is coming down but it’s still large Isn’t it and will still result in 1140 hospitalisations and 380 deaths or so in a couple of weeks. So so sad

The 4K deaths estimate was based on incorrect/out of date data though Pete and related to the justification of the November national lockdown. Vallance apologised for using it the following week from memory. This current spike/wave is due to Xmas mixing and the new variant (not known or modelled in Nov)

when we didn’t get anywhere near that figure in Nov/Dec I’d imagine it may have damaged the public’s confidence in the scientific models, which then leads to people disregarding advice/rules etc. Not saying that’s had much bearing on the current situation (main reasons for which are as above) but keeping publics buy in is essential so inaccurate data can be dangerous

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

The 4K deaths estimate was based on incorrect/out of date data though Pete and related to the justification of the November national lockdown. Vallance apologised for using it the following week from memory. This current spike/wave is due to Xmas mixing and the new variant (not known or modelled in Nov)

when we didn’t get anywhere near that figure in Nov/Dec I’d imagine it may have damaged the public’s confidence in the scientific models, which then leads to people disregarding advice/rules etc. Not saying that’s had much bearing on the current situation (main reasons for which are as above) but keeping publics buy in is essential so inaccurate data can be dangerous

I’m not certain that’s right I thought it was later and I thought whitty defended it saying it was an extrapolation. In any case without measures it wouldn’t take long to escalate to 4000 from 1850

 

[CCFCSteve]

I’m not certain that’s right I thought it was later and I thought whitty defended it saying it was an extrapolation. In any case without measures it wouldn’t take long to escalate to 4000 from 1850

Yeah, they said it could happen by mid Dec without national lockdown (which was nonsense)

Government criticised by statistics watchdog over claim 4,000 people could die from Covid a day

Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance have been criticised over their presentation of scientific modelling data

www.google.co.uk

You’re right, they defended it initially but then it came out a little later that it was based on out of date data/modelling

Agree though, if restrictions weren’t in place now it would no doubt get close to that figure

 

[wingy]

COVID-19: Vaccine booking website criticised after 'queue-jumping' claims

An online system for booking COVID vaccine appointments has been criticised after claims ineligible people have been using it to queue-jump and receive the jab.

www.goqradio.com

 

[CCFCSteve]

COVID-19: Vaccine booking website criticised after 'queue-jumping' claims

An online system for booking COVID vaccine appointments has been criticised after claims ineligible people have been using it to queue-jump and receive the jab.

www.goqradio.com

Scumbags jumping the queue!

Ps was that Perkins raising concerns about the system after he pushed in himself ?!

 

[chiefdave]

COVID-19: Vaccine booking website criticised after 'queue-jumping' claims

An online system for booking COVID vaccine appointments has been criticised after claims ineligible people have been using it to queue-jump and receive the jab.

www.goqradio.com

Didn't know there was an online system to be honest, the info I've seen from both mine and my parents doctors has been you need to phone to book.

Saying that surely its not that difficult to run a check. Just get people to stick their NHS number in.

 

[skybluetony176]

1820 Deaths is a sobering number and a scandal that we are so far in to this and fucking it up worse now than we were in the first wave.

I have to admit I had a moment when I heard that total. Shocking. I only fear it’s still going to get worse before it starts getting better.

 

[jordan210]

Please remember that the the daily death figures are from the day reported.

So todays numbers included back dated figures.

Covid: UK reports 1,820 deaths as Johnson warns tough weeks to come

A further 1,820 people die in the UK within 28 days of a positive test - another all-time high.

www.bbc.co.uk

"Just under half of the newly reported deaths reported occurred on Tuesday, while a further quarter took place on Monday or Sunday."

Obviously the numbers are still far too hight and its inedibly sad.

But the positive case rate is dropping. So a little bit of good news.

 

[Johnnythespider]

Ex is back in hospital today, had to go grab the kids at lunch. Can’t keep any food down apparently, had real gastrointestinal issues. Last time they X-rayed her chest and said chest infection and sent her home.

I’ve never heard of these symptoms before, anyone else?

My sister in laws partner in Holland lost about 4 stone in weight with it

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Covid: UK reports 1,820 deaths as Johnson warns tough weeks to come

A further 1,820 people die in the UK within 28 days of a positive test - another all-time high.

www.bbc.co.uk

Where’s the I may have got the tier 2 call in London wrong and maybe Xmas was a bad idea??

It’s as if it’s nothing to do with his decisions

 

[We'll_live_and_die]

History shows that viruses have a second, third and possibly fourth peak. The second is generally worse than the first.
It was inevitable that no matter what restrictions were taken we would suffer worse this time than the first outbreak.
Fingers crossed with the injections we can avoid a severe third/fourth peak. (Arguably this is the third as it dipped after November lockdown).

 

[fernandopartridge]

History shows that viruses have a second, third and possibly fourth peak. The second is generally worse than the first.
It was inevitable that no matter what restrictions were taken we would suffer worse this time than the first outbreak.
Fingers crossed with the injections we can avoid a severe third/fourth peak. (Arguably this is the third as it dipped after November lockdown).

Perhaps but we had a terrible first peak and have wiped the floor with it on the second. This is the double dip of the second wave as I predicted would happen.

 

[David O'Day]

Please remember that the the daily death figures are from the day reported.

So todays numbers included back dated figures.

Covid: UK reports 1,820 deaths as Johnson warns tough weeks to come

A further 1,820 people die in the UK within 28 days of a positive test - another all-time high.

www.bbc.co.uk

"Just under half of the newly reported deaths reported occurred on Tuesday, while a further quarter took place on Monday or Sunday."

Obviously the numbers are still far too hight and its inedibly sad.

But the positive case rate is dropping. So a little bit of good news.

You keep saying this but the deaths by date of death data is just as fucking awful

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

 

[jordan210]

You keep saying this but the deaths by date of death data is just as fucking awful

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Just FYI



But yes the numbers are awful. But it does appear the headline numbers have to be taken with a pinch of salt to get a true daily reflection.

I expect the numbers to be just as high for the next week or so sadly. Then it should start to drop inline with the drop in positive cases.

 

[David O'Day]

Just FYI

View attachment 18310

But yes the numbers are awful. But it does appear the headline numbers have to be taken with a pinch of salt to get a true daily reflection.

I expect the numbers to be just as high for the next week or so sadly. Then it should start to drop inline with the drop in positive cases.

and? I've linked you to the deaths per day of death figures so reporting delays have fuck all to do with anything

The actual deaths per day are at a par with the very worse we have seen and given the hospitalisation rates and time from test to hospital to death are likely to be high for a while.