No, for exactly the reason you suspect, as the second & third shots come about as an outcome of the first.
In this scenario you instead calculate the chance that a goal wouldn't be scored.
Let's say as an example (I'm making these xG numbers up) the first shot (Ikpeazu?) has an xG of 0.15 then the first rebound is a really tight angle so let's say 0.10 then the 3rd is a really good look at goal (although Moore is positioned well) say 0.50.
Then we'd multiply the chance of each i.e. (1.0 - 0.15) x (1.0 - 0.10) x (1.0 - 0.50)
0.85 x 0.90 x 0.50 = 0.3825 i.e. only a 38% chance that 'Boro don't score from that sequence.
Middlesbrough's xG would then be 0.6175 or, in layman's terms, we'd expect a goal to be scored from that scenario approx 62% of the time.
Make sense?
WBA and Stoke early leads
Back up to 3rdDown to 4th now.
Is Allens all the 5s?
Blackpool flyingPNE equalise v Stoke. M'Boro 2-0 up v Sheff Utd (happy with that). Blackburn losing. Results going ok so far this evening. Not fussed about WBA, as they are likely to win a lot, and I don't mind them taking points off other mid-table teams.
Hull 1-0 down at home to Blackpool. Reckon McCann will be gone if they lose this?
Brereton-Diaz again! Glad he'll be missing for the game against us!
Only Stoke or Blackburn could take us tonight I think, so would be good if they didn't and we went into the next game still 3rd.I can’t really get excited at other results are yet as I haven’t got a clue who our rivals for positions are.
Adding -Diaz to your name is a nailed on way to be better at football.His transformation since he found he had Chilean blood (and added -Diaz) to his name has been remarkable. Good last season alongside Armstrong but this season, he's scoring for fun.
I can’t really get excited at other results are yet as I haven’t got a clue who our rivals for positions are.
I still like to see the teams that are supposed to run away with it drop points even this early. Opens it up a bit.I don't think I'll be interested about other teams until Christmas at least.
Looks like Mick McCarthy is under pressure, Cardiff now 3-0 down at home to West Brom.
I can’t really get excited at other results are yet as I haven’t got a clue who our rivals for positions are.
Agreed - think he and McCann are in the mire. Also the wheels have started to come off at Birmingham.
Love this
It's the way he puffs his chest out and raises his head as he gives his verdictReminds me of Nigel Pearson vs journalists
Fair comment. I said before the season started that I'd be happy with a mid table finish, an improvement on last season. Our start is exceptional this year so it's interesting to see who is beating who and where we can pick up points. I have no doubts that we won't be challenging for the auto spots and we'd have to be lucky to pick up a playoff place. But the season is long and we're only just a quarter through. Anything can happen....
It's the way he puffs his chest out and raises his head as he gives his verdict
Not convinced he’ll have a job this time tomorrow….Looks like Mick McCarthy is under pressure, Cardiff now 3-0 down at home to West Brom.
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