Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (23 Viewers)

Great_Expectations · Jan 22, 2021

Update for anyone interested, Day 4 of experiencing symptoms and today I thought I was starting to improve slightly. However, after taking my daughter for a few laps round the garden to try and get her some fresh air/tire her out, I’m shattered and feeling as shit as I did yesterday. My partner is feeling a lot better though and she’s about 3/4 days ahead of me, so hopefully the worst is nearly over.

The kids have got some sort of virus; temperatures, coughing, runny nose and generally napping for longer (not moaning about that one). No idea if that’s a separate virus or some form of mild covid. I’m sure someone who is more read will have a view.

Feeling slightly guilty, after moaning about my Partners Dad being the one to give us Covid (which remains true), he’s been taken to hospital via ambulance this afternoon as he’s struggling to breath.

wingy · Jan 22, 2021

Great_Expectations said:
Update for anyone interested, Day 4 of experiencing symptoms and today I thought I was starting to improve slightly. However, after taking my daughter for a few laps round the garden to try and get her some fresh air/tire her out, I’m shattered and feeling as shit as I did yesterday. My partner is feeling a lot better though and she’s about 3/4 days ahead of me, so hopefully the worst is nearly over.

The kids have got some sort of virus; temperatures, coughing, runny nose and generally napping for longer (not moaning about that one). No idea if that’s a separate virus or some form of mild covid. I’m sure someone who is more read will have a view.

Feeling slightly guilty, after moaning about my Partners Dad being the one to give us Covid (which remains true), he’s been taken to hospital via ambulance this afternoon as he’s struggling to breath.

Sorry to hear that , dreadful situation .
Hope they get him in right.

wingy · Jan 22, 2021

Why did Vallance use the example of a Sixty year old, their mortality rate is nowhere 1%

Sky Blue Pete · Jan 22, 2021

NERVTAG paper on COVID-19 variant of concern B.1.1.7

Paper from the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) on new coronavirus (COVID-19) variant B.1.1.7.

www.gov.uk

wingy · Jan 22, 2021

jordan210 said:
Having had a look at some figures and others views it appears.

10/1000 60 year old - mortality rate

13-14/1000 60 year olds - mortality rate *new*

So an increase in mortality from 1% to 1.3% or 1.4%.

But I bet the headlines tomorrow will be 40% increase

Bingo Jordan it's now sacrosanct as of this evening's news, not suggests, could be.

Brighton Sky Blue · Jan 22, 2021

wingy said:
Bingo Jordan it's now sacrosanct as of this evening's news, not suggests, could be.

Tgat initial report says there are limitations to the data then right afterwards says it’s probable the new variant is more deadly.

Sky Blue Pete · Jan 22, 2021

Brighton Sky Blue said:
Tgat initial report says there are limitations to the data then right afterwards says it’s probable the new variant is more deadly.

Quite scary

Brighton Sky Blue · Jan 22, 2021

Sky Blue Pete said:
Quite scary

Quite baffling it’s just rushing out data from limited sample sizes

Grendel · Jan 22, 2021

Brighton Sky Blue said:
Anyone booking holidays now is plain daft

Depends

Piers Morgan accused of taking Antigua holiday over

Good Morning Britain presenter Piers Morgan is alleged to have

www.google.co.uk

Brighton Sky Blue · Jan 22, 2021

Grendel said:
Depends

Piers Morgan accused of taking Antigua holiday over

Good Morning Britain presenter Piers Morgan is alleged to have

www.google.co.uk

He’s a moron regardless

wingy · Jan 22, 2021

Brighton Sky Blue said:
Quite baffling it’s just rushing out data from limited sample sizes

Is it cover or maybe used to resist the inevitable pressure to open up?

Sky Blue Pete · Jan 22, 2021

Yep good shout that

Whitty was quite angry in his answers especially about the pressure on the nhs

Otis · Jan 22, 2021

Brighton Sky Blue said:
Getting up to 400k jabs a day, live in hope

Someone has to.

clint van damme · Jan 22, 2021

Great_Expectations said:
Update for anyone interested, Day 4 of experiencing symptoms and today I thought I was starting to improve slightly. However, after taking my daughter for a few laps round the garden to try and get her some fresh air/tire her out, I’m shattered and feeling as shit as I did yesterday. My partner is feeling a lot better though and she’s about 3/4 days ahead of me, so hopefully the worst is nearly over.

The kids have got some sort of virus; temperatures, coughing, runny nose and generally napping for longer (not moaning about that one). No idea if that’s a separate virus or some form of mild covid. I’m sure someone who is more read will have a view.

Feeling slightly guilty, after moaning about my Partners Dad being the one to give us Covid (which remains true), he’s been taken to hospital via ambulance this afternoon as he’s struggling to breath.

There is a bug going around at the minute with symptoms you've described. Myself and a few of my family have had it, no worse 5han.a bad cold.

Fingers crossed you and your wife are over the worse of the covid.

chiefdave · Jan 22, 2021

Coventry and Warwickshire is to get a mass vaccination centre, which will open next week it has been revealed.

The centre will be at Stoneleigh Park and will open some time next week - thought the precise day has yet to be confirmed.

Should help increase the numbers.

David O'Day · Jan 22, 2021

Sky Blue Pete said:
Quite scary

Not really as at best if correct which is very dubious it adds .4 to the mortality rate

Sky Blue Pete · Jan 22, 2021

David O'Day said:
Not really as at best if correct which is very dubious it adds .4 to the mortality rate

Ok

fernandopartridge · Jan 22, 2021

Great_Expectations said:
Update for anyone interested, Day 4 of experiencing symptoms and today I thought I was starting to improve slightly. However, after taking my daughter for a few laps round the garden to try and get her some fresh air/tire her out, I’m shattered and feeling as shit as I did yesterday. My partner is feeling a lot better though and she’s about 3/4 days ahead of me, so hopefully the worst is nearly over.

The kids have got some sort of virus; temperatures, coughing, runny nose and generally napping for longer (not moaning about that one). No idea if that’s a separate virus or some form of mild covid. I’m sure someone who is more read will have a view.

Feeling slightly guilty, after moaning about my Partners Dad being the one to give us Covid (which remains true), he’s been taken to hospital via ambulance this afternoon as he’s struggling to breath.

All the best to you and the family.

fernandopartridge · Jan 22, 2021

The narrative that the horrendous death rate is down to the variant is all the report is about.

fernandopartridge · Jan 22, 2021

Otis said:
Someone has to.

View attachment 18323

I'd like to live there, it's lovely

Otis · Jan 22, 2021

fernandopartridge said:
I'd like to live there, it's lovely

I would too. Would be great to always be able to the answer the question "where are you from?" with "I live in Hope"

Sky Blue Pete · Jan 23, 2021

so the caveats are that they're working with very small samples sizes, it's kind of too early to tell and so they have wide confidence intervals, but I'm afraid the preliminary number they're reporting is a 30% increase in mortality. The "point three" comes in if the infection mortality rate (IFR) is around 1%, which I understand it is for 60 year olds, i.e. The old variants had IFR 1% and the new variant of concern has IFR 1.3% for that age group. The increase in mortality seems to be roughly consistent across ages.

David O'Day · Jan 23, 2021

Sky Blue Pete said:
so the caveats are that they're working with very small samples sizes, it's kind of too early to tell and so they have wide confidence intervals, but I'm afraid the preliminary number they're reporting is a 30% increase in mortality. The "point three" comes in if the infection mortality rate (IFR) is around 1%, which I understand it is for 60 year olds, i.e. The old variants had IFR 1% and the new variant of concern has IFR 1.3% for that age group. The increase in mortality seems to be roughly consistent across ages.

no

As was stated the hospital data does not back up the very small sample size study. This was explained at todays presser and it was clear Whitty and Vallance did not agree with how it was framed.

It is morally wrong to spread such information based on such weak data and it is clearly a government looking for excuses.

derbyskyblue · Jan 23, 2021

Brighton Sky Blue said:
Anyone booking holidays now is plain daft

We had a cruise round the med booked for may, we did book it early last year but cant see it happening and i doubt i would go anyway.
I guessing its gonna be costa del back garden for us.....

Philosoraptor · Jan 23, 2021

Looks like a huge row is breaking out over the timings of the second vaccine and how much protection the first vaccine actually gives.

Covid: Gap between Pfizer vaccine doses should be halved, say doctors

Delaying second Pfizer doses to give more people their first is "difficult to justify", says BMA.

www.bbc.co.uk

shmmeee · Jan 23, 2021

jordan210 said:
Having had a look at some figures and others views it appears.

10/1000 60 year old - mortality rate

13-14/1000 60 year olds - mortality rate *new*

So an increase in mortality from 1% to 1.3% or 1.4%.

But I bet the headlines tomorrow will be 40% increase

I mean, that is a 40% increase....

David O'Day · Jan 23, 2021

shmmeee said:
I mean, that is a 40% increase....

The way it is being reported by the press and some people on here completely ignores the starting point

CCFCSteve · Jan 23, 2021

wingy said:
Is it cover or maybe used to resist the inevitable pressure to open up?

That’s exactly what it is i

David O'Day said:
no

As was stated the hospital data does not back up the very small sample size study. This was explained at todays presser and it was clear Whitty and Vallance did not agree with how it was framed.

It is morally wrong to spread such information based on such weak data and it is clearly a government looking for excuses.

It’s not the first time though. It was done to justify the start of the second lockdown (the 4k deaths per day which was unnecessary at the time and subsequently proved to be based on out of date data and very much a worst worst case scenario even if that data was correct)

Playing devils advocate though we have to remember modelling is being done on limited and sometimes inaccurate data. The scientists/modellers release initial findings/commentary and although I wasn’t happy with the above, they can’t really win. You withhold that info and it’s found to be correct and they’d be uproar, you release it now and it’s scaremongering.

I think wingy was right, it was being used to suppress calls from certain Tories to start considering releasing restrictions end Feb/early March. Fact is though it supports the stay at home message and is likely to lead to people being more scared to leave house/mix which ultimately may help.

I personally don’t like it but people have regularly accepted/used imperfect data depending on how they’d want to frame their argument throughout the outbreak

shmmeee · Jan 23, 2021

David O'Day said:
The way it is being reported by the press and some people on here completely ignores the starting point

The starting point is nearly 100k people have died David. Adding another 40-95k on that is quite significant.

Small numbers matter when talking about percentages of very large numbers.

shmmeee · Jan 23, 2021

CCFCSteve said:
That’s exactly what it is i

It’s not the first time though. It was done to justify the start of the second lockdown (the 4k deaths per day which was unnecessary at the time and subsequently proved to be based on out of date data and very much a worst worst case scenario even if that data was correct)

Playing devils advocate though we have to remember modelling is being done on limited and sometimes inaccurate data. The scientists/modellers release initial findings/commentary and although I wasn’t happy with the above, they can’t really win. You withhold that info and it’s found to be correct and they’d be uproar, you release it now and it’s scaremongering.

I think wingy was right, it was being used to suppress calls from certain Tories to start considering releasing restrictions end Feb/early March. Fact is though it supports the stay at home message and is likely to lead to people being more scared to leave house/mix which ultimately may help.

I personally don’t like it but people have regularly accepted/used imperfect data depending on how they’d want to frame their argument throughout the outbreak

No Steve. There isn’t a conspiracy by several university departments and Public Health England to keep lockdown.

Jesus H Christ. I get people are sick of it, but try and keep on planet Earth.

David O'Day · Jan 23, 2021

shmmeee said:
The starting point is nearly 100k people have died David. Adding another 40-95k on that is quite significant.

Small numbers matter when talking about percentages of very large numbers.

No that's a completely different fucking argument, the starting point is 1%. The press stories paint this as now SARA or Ebola levels.

You know this so just stop it.

David O'Day · Jan 23, 2021

shmmeee said:
No Steve. There isn’t a conspiracy by several university departments and Public Health England to keep lockdown.

Jesus H Christ. I get people are sick of it, but try and keep on planet Earth.

This is a fucking flex right here.

David O'Day · Jan 23, 2021

shmmeee said:
The starting point is nearly 100k people have died David. Adding another 40-95k on that is quite significant.

Small numbers matter when talking about percentages of very large numbers.

This is gold

Sbarcher · Jan 23, 2021

jordan210 said:
Having had a look at some figures and others views it appears.

10/1000 60 year old - mortality rate

13-14/1000 60 year olds - mortality rate *new*

So an increase in mortality from 1% to 1.3% or 1.4%.

But I bet the headlines tomorrow will be 40% increase

Bugger! I am in my 60s. Why can’t it be spread amongst other age groups. It’s discrimination!

Sky Blue Pete · Jan 23, 2021

My comment was not mine but a reply from an Oxford graduate statistician who is a professor at warwick uni at the age of 30. She’s just presenting the information and the maths

Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (23 Viewers)

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