Championship thread 25/26! (41 Viewers)

[JeffB]

A team as ridiculously stacked as theirs doesn’t need a helping hand, yet they’ve had the referees in their pockets all season and a bonus point from the EFL.

A team as ridiculously stacked as theirs doesn’t need a helping hand, yet they’ve had the referees in their pockets all season and a bonus point from the EFL.

Totally agree the extra time penalties awarded to them against Preston and Birmingham needed to be seen to be believed.

 

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[alexccfc99]

WBA sticking with Morrison until the end of the season, if they end up relegated they only have themselves to blame

3 novice managers in a season

 

[Lamps]

Ipswich have only a few hard games if you ask me.

Millwall H
Southampton A
Boro H
Norwich A

Boro on the other hand have Millwall H, then the Ipswich game and Wrexham away as there only tricky games I would say. The rest are very "easy" games for them.

The only easy game is Sheffield Wednesday. Hull should have been down there with them as they are under similar restrictions but many on here have sleepless nights over them.

It's the Championship. Oxford struggle against bottom sides but have a very good record against the top sides considering.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

WBA sticking with Morrison until the end of the season, if they end up relegated they only have themselves to blame

3 novice managers in a season

The fixture difficulty for them, Lesta and Oxfords looks very similar. It’s a tough one to call, Lesta have more quality than the other two so should pull clear of it I think.

 

[Skyblueweeman]

All 3 teams play Sheffield Wednesday in the run-in, which means one less game for them to gain points. If we then win 6 of the other 10 games, both those sides need to win 8.

Probably the best way of looking at it to be fair.

 

[Terry_dactyl]

Or 2 wins away from being 11 points clear with 9 games left. Glass 1/2 full v glass 1/2 empty.

Yeah, I’ll believe it (and be ecstatic) when it happens.

 

[KenilworthSkyBlue]

The fixture difficulty for them, Lesta and Oxfords looks very similar. It’s a tough one to call, Lesta have more quality than the other two so should pull clear of it I think.

The thing is the form table is telling a very different story. If anything Oxford look the most likely from that bunch to stay up.

The Middlesbrough result was pretty encouraging even if they were a bit toothless. Although the game against Norwich not so much, so difficult to actually say if they've turned a definitive corner.

Regardless, Rowett needs to try to find a way to pick up points, even if it's a bit ugly. Their defence is a pretty big problem though so not an easy task by any stretch.

 

[quinn1971]

Ipswich have only a few hard games if you ask me.

Millwall H
Southampton A
Boro H
Norwich A

Boro on the other hand have Millwall H, then the Ipswich game and Wrexham away as there only tricky games I would say. The rest are very "easy" games for them.

After Saturday Ipswich have 4 home games left out of 10 big ask to win the amount of games they’ll need

 

[COVKIDSNEVERQUIT]

We’re potentially 2 defeats from being in 3rd, right?

That's the spirit.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Again, I wouldn't really go as far to say it's absurd. Sure, it's far more probable that they won't both go on a ridiculous run between now and the end of the season.

Us all playing Sheff W is a big help as in theory that should be 3 points all round, plus their game against each other effectively cancels one or both out and allows us at worst to not lose ground to one of the two.

But there's plenty of opportunity for things to change. This last stretch of fixtures is a pressure cooker and I can predict possibly one of the three dropping off by a fair amount. Similar to Sheff U last season when they only picked up 4 wins from their last 10 after winning 11 from 14. Baring in mind they went 5 points clear of Burnley at the end of that ridiculous run.

If a side does drop off we just need to make sure it's not us.

Right, what % would you put that Ipswich and Boro win 80% of their remaining games? Bearing in mind they both play each other, the absolute max for them both is 90%.

I don’t think there’s been a 10 game period where either team have won 8/10 of their games. It’s only us who’ve done it from Leicester (a) to Charlton (h) where our record was 11-1-1. Boro and Ipswich draw a lot of games. This is why we’re top…

It is mathematically possible, but it’s low probability. It’s ironic that you discount Millwall’s chances but not Ipswich/Boro when our buffer is larger than theirs.

 

[Terry_dactyl]

That's the spirit.

Haha…yeah. Although, while I’m obviously a super fan, I don’t think it’ll be my cautious outlook that will make the difference.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Just seen this View attachment 49621

Thankfully, our toughest games are at home which is a huge advantage for us. I don’t back us to lose to anyone else this season.

I’d rather take our fixtures to be honest. There’s a lot of the same fixtures, Swansea (a), Sheff W (h), Blackburn (a), Bristol City (h) and we swap the order of Watford and Wrexham. The big one for me is that a) their home form is inferior to ours and b) they play Ipswich away. Fuck that.

 

[COVKIDSNEVERQUIT]

Haha…yeah. Although, while I’m obviously a super fan, I don’t think it’ll be my cautious outlook that will make the difference.

What's a super fan?

 

[Jamesimus]

Right, what % would you put that Ipswich and Boro win 80% of their remaining games? Bearing in mind they both play each other, the absolute max for them both is 90%.

I don’t think there’s been a 10 game period where either team have won 8/10 of their games. It’s only us who’ve done it from Leicester (a) to Charlton (h) where our record was 11-1-1. Boro and Ipswich draw a lot of games. This is why we’re top…

It is mathematically possible, but it’s low probability. It’s ironic that you discount Millwall’s chances but not Ipswich/Boro when our buffer is larger than theirs.

All these percentages hinge on us maintaining decent form though.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

What's a super fan?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

All these percentages hinge on us maintaining decent form though.

They hinge on us winning 6 games out of 10.

 

[Evo1883]

All these percentages hinge on us maintaining decent form though.

Have to factor in that no matter what , ipswich and boro one of or both will drop atleast 2 points against eachother

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

All these percentages hinge on us maintaining decent form though.

Not even, it’s maintaining our record whereas the ask for Boro and Ipswich is to outperform it significantly. They play each other one or both of them will lose points on that day. We have 6 games at home where our win record is 13-3-1, we ought to win at least 4 of the remaining games.

It’s not a neck and neck right now, 5 points clear is quite comfy for this stage of the season.

 

[Jamesimus]

Not even, it’s maintaining our record whereas the ask for Boro and Ipswich is to outperform it significantly. They play each other one or both of them will lose points on that day. We have 6 games at home where our win record is 13-3-1, we ought to win at least 4 of the remaining games.

It’s not a neck and neck right now, 5 points clear is quite comfy for this stage of the season.

Keep posting, I am erect.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Keep posting, I am erect.

I’ll go one step further, there’s just no good reason to suggest that both Ipswich and Boro will go onto to overtake us.

One, maybe. Both of them, it’s just not a likely outcome.

 

[Terry_dactyl]

What's a super fan?

I am!

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I’ll go one step further

 

[shmmeee]

One, maybe.

 

[KenilworthSkyBlue]

Right, what % would you put that Ipswich and Boro win 80% of their remaining games? Bearing in mind they both play each other, the absolute max for them both is 90%.

I don’t think there’s been a 10 game period where either team have won 8/10 of their games. It’s only us who’ve done it from Leicester (a) to Charlton (h) where our record was 11-1-1. Boro and Ipswich draw a lot of games. This is why we’re top…

It is mathematically possible, but it’s low probability. It’s ironic that you discount Millwall’s chances but not Ipswich/Boro when our buffer is larger than theirs.

It would be a low percentage but not near-on impossible, which is what you've been inferring. Categorically football just isn't as linear as that.

Not really sure it's that ironic? Millwall have yet to play Hull, Ipswich and Middlesbrough and have over the course of the season have proven they struggle against those in the top 6. As mentioned previously, one win and one draw out of 7 games.

They've had a great season, and are on a great run, but that 'micro-form' is what will probably cause them to fall short IMO assuming it continues.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

It would be a low percentage but not near-on impossible, which is what you've been inferring. Categorically football just isn't as linear as that.

Not really sure it's that ironic? Millwall have yet to play Hull, Ipswich and Middlesbrough and have over the course of the season have proven they struggle against those in the top 6. As mentioned previously, one win and one draw out of 7 games.

They've had a great season, and are on a great run, but that 'micro-form' is what will probably cause them to fall short IMO assuming it continues.

I’ve never said impossible, I said ‘low percentage’ and ‘absurd’ which an 80% rate is by any metric. To put into context how difficult that is, the best win % in the last 10+ years was Leeds last season on 67.4% and both Boro and Ipswich are tracking below Sheff U’s tally from that same season. The odds that one team does it is low, let alone 2 and that’s been my point throughout.

It’s mathematically possible that they could do it, it’s also a mathematical possibility that Leicester can make the playoffs… it’s just v unlikely.

Unlike the teams below us, Millwall have their destiny in their own hands. If we get 24 points from the remaining games, there isn’t anything the teams below us can do to overtake us. In reality, we won’t even need that many to go up.

 

[shepardo01]

Not even, it’s maintaining our record whereas the ask for Boro and Ipswich is to outperform it significantly. They play each other one or both of them will lose points on that day. We have 6 games at home where our win record is 13-3-1, we ought to win at least 4 of the remaining games.

It’s not a neck and neck right now, 5 points clear is quite comfy for this stage of the season.

Just throwing it out there, but remember when people were saying;
For Boro/Ipswich (anybody) to catch us we'd have to perform at (insert ridiculously low ppg) and X team would have to perform at (insert ridiculously high ppg).

It happened.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Just throwing it out there, but remember when people were saying;
For Boro/Ipswich (anybody) to catch us we'd have to perform at (insert ridiculously low ppg) and X team would have to perform at (insert ridiculously high ppg).

It happened.

Boro’s ppg wasn’t actually that great, they went 4 games without a win around Xmas themselves so they arguably should’ve caught us sooner.

The bigger picture here is that although we lost top spot, we were never in real danger of falling out of the top 2 which is the point here.

My personal opinion is that Ipswich will run us close but ultimately we’ll win the league and they’ll finish 2nd. The underlying data has us and Ipswich as the divisions top 2 teams.

Boro have been over performing xG and they have the toughest run of away fixtures including a 6 pointer v Ipswich.

We also have superior GD so for us to fall out the automatic places they need to out point us, because Boro especially probably won’t beat us on GD or GS. This is why there’s a c. 90% probability we’ll finish in the top 2.

 

[TomRad85]

Just throwing it out there, but remember when people were saying;
For Boro/Ipswich (anybody) to catch us we'd have to perform at (insert ridiculously low ppg) and X team would have to perform at (insert ridiculously high ppg).

It happened.

After 35 games we're top by 5 points. That's the only form that matters. Don't know why so many are flapping it, i'd rather be us than them.

 

[sc1940]

Just throwing it out there, but remember when people were saying;
For Boro/Ipswich (anybody) to catch us we'd have to perform at (insert ridiculously low ppg) and X team would have to perform at (insert ridiculously high ppg).

It happened.

I suspect people who were saying that were talking about the remainder of the season, not the relatively small sample you are using, from the start of the season to today we are still tracking over 2 ppg, and are the only team to do that.

 

[Ipad Boro]

We've seen it ourselves with Leicester. They can play decent football, but they are toothless up front and Luke Thomas has gone backwards with them. He is costing them a lot of goals. Remember when he got out muscled by Sakamoto

But they are capable of raising their game. It was only a couple of games ago they got a point at Middlesbrough.

And on the GD.....we're against a side who just struggled and lost against the worse side in League One. 120 minutes on a mud pitch. All confidence shattered. It's our chance of extending our GD. Football doesn't always go the way you would think, but if you go with the probabilities it's the perfect time to go away to Bristol City.

Tbf when we played Leicester, most of their fans said it was the best they'd seen them play in months. Then in the next game, the new manager bounce over and they promptly returned to their shitty ways.

Anything is possible, but it's hoping in a sense that lightening can strike twice.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Tbf when we played Leicester, most of their fans said it was the best they'd seen them play in months. Then in the next game, the new manager bounce over and they promptly returned to their shitty ways.

Anything is possible, but it's hoping in a sense that lightening can strike twice.

Fingers crossed for us both because Ipswich haven’t beaten Leicester in 7 attempts.

On one hand, I’d like to see Ipswich get a bloodied nose but who wouldn’t want to point and laugh at @hackneyfox if they get back-to-back relegations…

 

[Nick]

Fingers crossed for us both because Ipswich haven’t beaten Leicester in 7 attempts.

On one hand, I’d like to see Ipswich get a bloodied nose but who wouldn’t want to point and laugh at @hackneyfox if they get back-to-back relegations…

Nah I'd much prefer a Leicester win if it's against people we need to drop points.

They can go bust after.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Nah I'd much prefer a Leicester win if it's against people we need to drop points.

They can go bust after.

As long as we do our job and beat Bristol, that’s the main thing. Boro, Ipswich or both of them slipping up is a sweet bonus.

 

[Ipad Boro]

Fingers crossed for us both because Ipswich haven’t beaten Leicester in 7 attempts.

On one hand, I’d like to see Ipswich get a bloodied nose but who wouldn’t want to point and laugh at @hackneyfox if they get back-to-back relegations…

7 attempts you say? I do love a good Hoodoo, me.
Sometimes.

 

[Nick]

As long as we do our job and beat Bristol, that’s the main thing. Boro, Ipswich or both of them slipping up is a sweet bonus.

I want promotion confirmed asap so I can plan my fpl team