Totally agree the extra time penalties awarded to them against Preston and Birmingham needed to be seen to be believed.
Championship thread 25/26! (53 Viewers)
- Thread starter shepardo01
- Start date
alexccfc99
Well-Known Member
WBA sticking with Morrison until the end of the season, if they end up relegated they only have themselves to blame
3 novice managers in a season
3 novice managers in a season
Lamps
Well-Known Member
The only easy game is Sheffield Wednesday. Hull should have been down there with them as they are under similar restrictions but many on here have sleepless nights over them.
It's the Championship. Oxford struggle against bottom sides but have a very good record against the top sides considering.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
The fixture difficulty for them, Lesta and Oxfords looks very similar. It’s a tough one to call, Lesta have more quality than the other two so should pull clear of it I think.
Skyblueweeman
Well-Known Member
Probably the best way of looking at it to be fair.
Terry_dactyl
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I’ll believe it (and be ecstatic) when it happens.
KenilworthSkyBlue
Well-Known Member
The thing is the form table is telling a very different story. If anything Oxford look the most likely from that bunch to stay up.
The Middlesbrough result was pretty encouraging even if they were a bit toothless. Although the game against Norwich not so much, so difficult to actually say if they've turned a definitive corner.
Regardless, Rowett needs to try to find a way to pick up points, even if it's a bit ugly. Their defence is a pretty big problem though so not an easy task by any stretch.
After Saturday Ipswich have 4 home games left out of 10 big ask to win the amount of games they’ll need
COVKIDSNEVERQUIT
Well-Known Member
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Right, what % would you put that Ipswich and Boro win 80% of their remaining games? Bearing in mind they both play each other, the absolute max for them both is 90%.
I don’t think there’s been a 10 game period where either team have won 8/10 of their games. It’s only us who’ve done it from Leicester (a) to Charlton (h) where our record was 11-1-1. Boro and Ipswich draw a lot of games. This is why we’re top…
It is mathematically possible, but it’s low probability. It’s ironic that you discount Millwall’s chances but not Ipswich/Boro when our buffer is larger than theirs.
Terry_dactyl
Well-Known Member
Haha…yeah. Although, while I’m obviously a super fan, I don’t think it’ll be my cautious outlook that will make the difference.That's the spirit.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Thankfully, our toughest games are at home which is a huge advantage for us. I don’t back us to lose to anyone else this season.
I’d rather take our fixtures to be honest. There’s a lot of the same fixtures, Swansea (a), Sheff W (h), Blackburn (a), Bristol City (h) and we swap the order of Watford and Wrexham. The big one for me is that a) their home form is inferior to ours and b) they play Ipswich away. Fuck that.
COVKIDSNEVERQUIT
Well-Known Member
What's a super fan?
Jamesimus
Well-Known Member
All these percentages hinge on us maintaining decent form though.
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
They hinge on us winning 6 games out of 10.
Evo1883
Well-Known Member
Have to factor in that no matter what , ipswich and boro one of or both will drop atleast 2 points against eachother
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Not even, it’s maintaining our record whereas the ask for Boro and Ipswich is to outperform it significantly. They play each other one or both of them will lose points on that day. We have 6 games at home where our win record is 13-3-1, we ought to win at least 4 of the remaining games.
It’s not a neck and neck right now, 5 points clear is quite comfy for this stage of the season.
Jamesimus
Well-Known Member
Keep posting, I am erect.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
I’ll go one step further, there’s just no good reason to suggest that both Ipswich and Boro will go onto to overtake us.
One, maybe. Both of them, it’s just not a likely outcome.
Terry_dactyl
Well-Known Member
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
KenilworthSkyBlue
Well-Known Member
It would be a low percentage but not near-on impossible, which is what you've been inferring. Categorically football just isn't as linear as that.
Not really sure it's that ironic? Millwall have yet to play Hull, Ipswich and Middlesbrough and have over the course of the season have proven they struggle against those in the top 6. As mentioned previously, one win and one draw out of 7 games.
They've had a great season, and are on a great run, but that 'micro-form' is what will probably cause them to fall short IMO assuming it continues.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
I’ve never said impossible, I said ‘low percentage’ and ‘absurd’ which an 80% rate is by any metric. To put into context how difficult that is, the best win % in the last 10+ years was Leeds last season on 67.4% and both Boro and Ipswich are tracking below Sheff U’s tally from that same season. The odds that one team does it is low, let alone 2 and that’s been my point throughout.
It’s mathematically possible that they could do it, it’s also a mathematical possibility that Leicester can make the playoffs… it’s just v unlikely.
Unlike the teams below us, Millwall have their destiny in their own hands. If we get 24 points from the remaining games, there isn’t anything the teams below us can do to overtake us. In reality, we won’t even need that many to go up.
shepardo01
Well-Known Member
Just throwing it out there, but remember when people were saying;
For Boro/Ipswich (anybody) to catch us we'd have to perform at (insert ridiculously low ppg) and X team would have to perform at (insert ridiculously high ppg).
It happened.