US presidential Election 2020 (1 Viewer)

Who will win the election


  • Total voters
    44

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
It’s an extraordinary election when the opposition tactic is to stop the candidate campaigning

It’s entirely correct and worked in the primary. Biden is an incoherent mess every time he speaks-if he hides he wins
 

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
A new des moines poll suggest that iowa will be won by trump at a canter... Which goes against all mainstream media poll predictions...
Also RCD polls suggest trump will win arizona... Against the mainstream again

The BBC poll of polls has Biden with 51% trump 42 % overall

Its so hard to trust polls these days isn't it

Trump will need to win them all to have a chance.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
Trump will need to win them all to have a chance.

The Iowa poll is a mess, it suggests that Trump will win a majority of non white votes and by 15% in democratic strongholds,

Axelrod has speaking about this, looks like something has happened to their methodology
 

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
The Iowa poll is a mess, it suggests that Trump will win a majority of non white votes and by 15% in democratic strongholds,

Axelrod has speaking about this, looks like something has happened to their methodology

As said elsewhere Trump’s best case, where he wins every state he’s within 5% or less, sees him get 279. It needs a miracle bigger than 2016.
 

Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Well-Known Member
I have a feeling this will be closer than people think... The Democrats on social media appear to believe this race is done, there's some very strange republican confidence too.

For what it's worth I still think Biden will win... But I wouldn't put money on it

It will be closer than we think. Largely for two reasons:

1) A lot of people won't admit voting Trump because they are scared of the cancel culture consequences.
2) Most of the media want Biden to win, so it is exaggerated in his favour.


I've seen many big cities in the US having their shops being boarded up already. It wouldn't surprise me if Trump does a lot better than is being made out. If he does then it is definitely going to be baby tantrum time.
 

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
It will be closer than we think. Largely for two reasons:

1) A lot of people won't admit voting Trump because they are scared of the cancel culture consequences.
2) Most of the media want Biden to win, so it is exaggerated in his favour.


I've seen many big cities in the US having their shops being boarded up already. It wouldn't surprise me if Trump does a lot better than is being made out. If he does then it is definitely going to be baby tantrum time.

Even if he does better than expected he’ll still lose.
 

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
And if it's the other way?
How do you see that going, like some church jamboree?
Edit:- for ESB's post

I worked out best case scenarios for each candidate. Trump would get 279 (including him keeping Pennsylvania where he is down by 5) and Biden would get over 400. Most likely Biden gets 300-350 I think.
 

Houchens Head

Fairly well known member from Malvern
I reckon it'll be a 1-1 draw. VAR heavily involved!
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
This is an interesting, informed and non partisan story on the chances of both candidates

 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
It will be closer than we think. Largely for two reasons:

1) A lot of people won't admit voting Trump because they are scared of the cancel culture consequences.
2) Most of the media want Biden to win, so it is exaggerated in his favour.


I've seen many big cities in the US having their shops being boarded up already. It wouldn't surprise me if Trump does a lot better than is being made out. If he does then it is definitely going to be baby tantrum time.
I think Trump has a loyal voter base. They will definitely turn out. The question will be how high the turnout is - the higher the turnout I feel it gives Biden the edge.

I half get your point about the media - that said in the UK the BBC are talking it up like it’s neck and neck, and there isn’t really much evidence around to show that.
 

SBT

Well-Known Member
For those of you convinced the polls are somehow clueless - if they were off by the same margin they were in 2016, the NYT projects Biden would win 335 electoral college votes.

Election night itself could look pretty bad for Biden - the swing states that will report results the earliest happen to be the ones that are more likely to fall to Trump (Florida, Arizona, North Carolina). If Biden wins either of those it should be over pretty quickly. But even if he doesn't, his numbers in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are staggering - far beyond anything Hillary Clinton had at this stage. Those states may not have final results until next weekend because of their bizarre mail-in ballots rules, but it's hard to see Trump winning all of them. Biden could lose every other swing state and still take the White House with those three.

Ultimately it will come down to Pennsylvania, which Trump cannot win the election without. No respected poll has him winning. At this stage, his best shout there genuinely seems to be winning other states early on to make the race close, and therefore persuading establishment Republicans and key cabinet members they should back him on his inevitable claims of voter fraud. If he doesn't have any momentum and it looks like a done deal for Biden, they'll quickly abandon him and leave him to complain on Twitter for months before he slopes off in January (I would guess overseas). Especially if the Senate itself flips Democrat (which also looks likely at this stage)
 

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
For those of you convinced the polls are somehow clueless - if they were off by the same margin they were in 2016, the NYT projects Biden would win 335 electoral college votes.

Election night itself could look pretty bad for Biden - the swing states that will report results the earliest happen to be the ones that are more likely to fall to Trump (Florida, Arizona, North Carolina). If Biden wins either of those it should be over pretty quickly. But even if he doesn't, his numbers in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are staggering - far beyond anything Hillary Clinton had at this stage. Those states may not have final results until next weekend because of their bizarre mail-in ballots rules, but it's hard to see Trump winning all of them. Biden could lose every other swing state and still take the White House with those three.

Ultimately it will come down to Pennsylvania, which Trump cannot win the election without. No respected poll has him winning. At this stage, his best shout there genuinely seems to be winning other states early on to make the race close, and therefore persuading establishment Republicans and key cabinet members they should back him on his inevitable claims of voter fraud. If he doesn't have any momentum and it looks like a done deal for Biden, they'll quickly abandon him and leave him to complain on Twitter for months before he slopes off in January (I would guess overseas). Especially if the Senate itself flips Democrat (which also looks likely at this stage)

You just have to take the best case for each of them and when you see Trump's has him barely winning then that's almost enough to pound the gavel
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
Will it be Wednesday morning the result is announce or Tuesday night?

Likely neither. Postal vote counting apparently doesn't start until after votes on the day are counted to ensure no-one votes twice. Also could handily see Trump claim a win, postal votes are fraudulent and shouldn't be counted. So likely to be contested in the courts for a while as well.
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
It will be closer than we think. Largely for two reasons:

1) A lot of people won't admit voting Trump because they are scared of the cancel culture consequences.
2) Most of the media want Biden to win, so it is exaggerated in his favour.


I've seen many big cities in the US having their shops being boarded up already. It wouldn't surprise me if Trump does a lot better than is being made out. If he does then it is definitely going to be baby tantrum time.

No-one is more likely to react like a baby and have a tantrum than Trump is. Or tantrump if you will.
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member

Apart from the obvious horrific headline story the bit that caught my eye was the North carolina bit. Police pepperspraying people at a rally to promote voting. In the self-proclaimed greatest democracy on Earth.
 

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member

Apart from the obvious horrific headline story the bit that caught my eye was the North carolina bit. Police pepperspraying people at a rally to promote voting. In the self-proclaimed greatest democracy on Earth.

Let’s see who the real snowflakes are when the orange one loses
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
If this is any indication Trump won't go quietly if he loses. Thankfully this attempt was thrown out by the courts.

They pulled this shit to deny Stacey Abrams a win in Georgia, it has precedence
 

Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Well-Known Member
Armed Hicks surrounded Bidens bus and “escorted” out of an area of Texas yesterday.

Yes, and? Was anyone killed, did anything get looted? Was there even any violence?

I don't agree with it, but it is a drop in the ocean compared to what Biden has on his side with BLM and Antifa. They'll be countrywide riots if Trump wins.

To even try and say Biden supporters are more peaceful is delusional. They're not even comparable on the same scale.
 

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
Yes, and? Was anyone killed, did anything get looted? Was there even any violence?

I don't agree with it, but it is a drop in the ocean compared to what Biden has on his side with BLM and Antifa. They'll be countrywide riots if Trump wins.

To even try and say Biden supporters are more peaceful is delusional. They're not even comparable on the same scale.
It was an act of violence and intimidation.
Not sure why you think I was saying anyone is less violent. Just pointing out that Trump has his own lynch mob.
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
Yes, and? Was anyone killed, did anything get looted? Was there even any violence?

I don't agree with it, but it is a drop in the ocean compared to what Biden has on his side with BLM and Antifa. They'll be countrywide riots if Trump wins.

To even try and say Biden supporters are more peaceful is delusional. They're not even comparable on the same scale.
Lol
 

Sbarcher

Well-Known Member
Talking yesterday with an ex UK Ambassador to the US. His opinion is that Trump may just have enough to be re-elected. He usually has his ear pretty close to the ground over there.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
Talking yesterday with an ex UK Ambassador to the US. His opinion is that Trump may just have enough to be re-elected. He usually has his ear pretty close to the ground over there.

How, look at the polls. Look at the leads Biden has in demographics he won in 2016. Trump is only 6 points up with White males and he won that by 20 points last time.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
Yes, and? Was anyone killed, did anything get looted? Was there even any violence?

I don't agree with it, but it is a drop in the ocean compared to what Biden has on his side with BLM and Antifa. They'll be countrywide riots if Trump wins.

To even try and say Biden supporters are more peaceful is delusional. They're not even comparable on the same scale.

Get off Twitter mate. “Antifa” 🤣🤣🤣🤣
 

SBT

Well-Known Member
Yes, and? Was anyone killed, did anything get looted? Was there even any violence?

I don't agree with it, but it is a drop in the ocean compared to what Biden has on his side with BLM and Antifa. They'll be countrywide riots if Trump wins.

To even try and say Biden supporters are more peaceful is delusional. They're not even comparable on the same scale.

For someone who says Twitter is a cesspit you seem to get a lot of talking points from off there
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
That's bullshit.

If Biden loses, the civil unrest would be a hell of a lot worse than the other way around.

Unfortunately we'll only get to see one or the other.

However we have precedence of Trump winning. I forgot that the entire country burnt down in response that night.
 

Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Well-Known Member
The lunatics have taken over the asylum.

Have none of you seen the utter state of looting and rioting in the last year over in America?

I guess we will have to see who wins the election, but I don't think Trump will get the floor wiped with him as much as some think.
 

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