US presidential Election 2020 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Evo1883
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Alan Dugdales Moustache
Well-Known Member
Anyone but psycho Trump, please. The U.S. looks on the brink of civil war at times.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Biden all the way, the individual state polling gives Trump far too much to do in the electoral college. He could potentially lose texas.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Got a feeling it will be a rerun of last time. Biden will win the popular vote but Trump will win the college vote and unfortunately that’s what puts you in the White House.
Evo1883
Well-Known Member
Imagine the morning after
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
Honestly no idea right now. It's amazing I can write that given what Trump is like but that's where we are in the modern world.
Even more division across the spectrum than here and people will vote for whichever one is wearing their preferred rosette. Again I don't think the democrats have chosen a particularly strong candidate. Electoral college system doesn't favour democrats and it appears Trump will do everything he can to try and prevent/put off those people who aren't likely to vote for him from doing so.
Could well depend on if the younger voters will show up in swing states.
One thing I can say for sure - if Trump loses he's not accepting it and stepping down.
Even more division across the spectrum than here and people will vote for whichever one is wearing their preferred rosette. Again I don't think the democrats have chosen a particularly strong candidate. Electoral college system doesn't favour democrats and it appears Trump will do everything he can to try and prevent/put off those people who aren't likely to vote for him from doing so.
Could well depend on if the younger voters will show up in swing states.
One thing I can say for sure - if Trump loses he's not accepting it and stepping down.
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
Hillary was consistently ahead in the polls last time.
Evo1883
Well-Known Member
I remember at the start of election night most US media outlets had hillary at a 90% plus chance of winning
Ian1779
Well-Known Member
I agree that the Dems have not picked the right guy for this fight. Biden should really get over the line given the damage Trump has done over the last 4 years but I wouldn’t bet on the outcome at all.
pastythegreat
Well-Known Member
Trump will win. Just like last time. Just like Brexit.
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Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
If we're honest given what 2020 has been like a Trump victory would just be the shitflakes on top of a massive turdcake.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
The one glimmer of hope was that at no time did Hillary poll more than 50%. Biden has consistently done that. Comes down to concentration of votes. If all them extra votes are in safe states for the Democrats then the only thing that might change is by how much Biden wins the popular vote.
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Think Biden will edge it but it will be very close. The one thing Trump was right about was when he said he could stand on New York’s Fifth Avenue “and shoot somebody” and still not lose votes. Seems no matter how badly he has handled things, or anything he does or is linked to, his supporters just brush it off.
Similar to Brexit and Johnson really. Its very bizarre. There's a lot of hyperbole like 'this is how the nazis started' or calling it a cult but I'm not sure what a more accurate description would be.
Don't discount Trump refusing to go if he loses. Been very non-committal when questions around that have been asked.
Similar to Brexit and Johnson really. Its very bizarre. There's a lot of hyperbole like 'this is how the nazis started' or calling it a cult but I'm not sure what a more accurate description would be.
Don't discount Trump refusing to go if he loses. Been very non-committal when questions around that have been asked.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
I think Trump will win by hook or by crook
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
I don’t like Trump, but I think he’ll win.
NorthernWisdom
Well-Known Member
It's been a mental enough past few years that a Trump win is the new normal.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Not like this, not in as many states and not by as much.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
The state by state polling is very bad for trump at the moment
Latest Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
Biden is way ahead in many states that Trump won in 2016
pastythegreat
Well-Known Member
Do Polls even matter anymore? Are they even still relevant? EVERY single poll leading up to the brexit vote had Britain down to stay in the EU. EVERY. SINGLE. ONE. Numerous polls had Scotland down for independence too! An awful lot of polls last year tipped Corbyn, but it couldn't be any further from what actually happened. Ill wait amd see what actually happens at the end of the voting day rather than listen to the polls.
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Otis
Well-Known Member
Yeah, but if Trump denigrates some black employees, calls people taking the knee "sons of bitches", mocks someone in a wheelchair and grabs some innocent woman by their bits, people will whoop and holler and his popularity rating will suddenly soar again.The state by state polling is very bad for trump at the moment
Latest Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Biden is way ahead in many states that Trump won in 2016
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
In the US they do yes, the polling averages on the state by state polls are very accurate. Clinton also won the popular vote by pretty much the same as the national pollion#g projections.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Only impressed by that are his base. In the independents he's a lot lot further behind this time around.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
"EVERY.SINGLE.ONE"
pastythegreat
Well-Known Member
Like 4-5 polls out of about 200 of them had it down as leave. Plus 1 of those 4-5 is the actual result so 3 exit polls from around 200 got it right?!?!"EVERY.SINGLE.ONE"
So i slightly exaggerated, but this doesn't really help prove polls are accurate does it?!
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shmmeee
Well-Known Member
No polls tipped Corbyn, or Scottish independence, Brexit changed in the last few days. Hillary won the popular vote.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
There's 17 polls in June 2016 alone that that said out was going to win.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
I've looked at the Scottish Referendum polling and in 2 years of polling only 3 outliers ever said Out was going to win.
pastythegreat
Well-Known Member
Indy ref had numerous polls in favour of Yes.
And 2019 elections, okay, this is only 1 opinion poll, but an opinion poll favoured corbyn.
Opinion polls get it wrong, time after time after time.
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David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Indy ref had numerous polls in favour of Yes.
And 2019 elections, okay, this is only 1 opinion poll, but an opinion poll favoured corbyn.
Opinion polls get it wrong, time after time after time.
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Polling will always have outliers though, that's just a by-product of the methodology they use to extrapolate the result from the raw data.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
For the avoidance of doubt here is a list of Scottish Ref polls taken before the 2014 referendum. In the 4 years before the referendum there had been a grand total of 4 polls that said the Yes campaign was going to win.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Indy ref had numerous polls in favour of Yes.
And 2019 elections, okay, this is only 1 opinion poll, but an opinion poll favoured corbyn.
Opinion polls get it wrong, time after time after time.
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What you’ve shown there is you don’t understand outliers or margins of error. Both those screenshots show polling overwhelmingly in favour of No and the Tories.
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
Imagine the morning after
Think it will be worse if Trump loses.
He's potentially fighting for his freedom here.
Talk he'll try and do a deal with Biden if he loses to go quietly. Hopefully, whoever wins, the whole country chills out. Horrendous to see them tearing themselves apart.
How Trump May Be Plotting to Stay Out of Jail | Washington Monthly
He could be planning for the "ultimate deal"—this time, with Joe Biden.
washingtonmonthly.com
