US presidential Election 2020 (1 Viewer)

Who will win the election


  • Total voters
    44

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
Think it will be worse if Trump loses.
He's potentially fighting for his freedom here.
Talk he'll try and do a deal with Biden if he loses to go quietly. Hopefully, whoever wins, the whole country chills out. Horrendous to see them tearing themselves apart.


It’ll be interesting to see where the MAGA crowd go if Trump loses. I can’t see the Rs going back to old fashioned Republicanism the Tea Party has well and truly taken over. But the cult of personality is so strong around Trump they’ll need to find someone special.

I think like here with Brexit the culture war is here to stay even after the original cause is settled.
 

pastythegreat

Well-Known Member
What you’ve shown there is you don’t understand outliers or margins of error. Both those screenshots show polling overwhelmingly in favour of No and the Tories.
A) Yes, i dont understand them.
B) You said NOBODY tipped corbyn to win, ive just shown you 1 poll that did.

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clint van damme

Well-Known Member
It’ll be interesting to see where the MAGA crowd go if Trump loses. I can’t see the Rs going back to old fashioned Republicanism the Tea Party has well and truly taken over. But the cult of personality is so strong around Trump they’ll need to find someone special.

I think like here with Brexit the culture war is here to stay even after the original cause is settled.

Unfortunately I think you're right.
The militia have been on the streets of Virginia this week with not one fuck given.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
A) Yes, i dont understand them.
B) You said NOBODY tipped corbyn to win, ive just shown you 1 poll that did.

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Yes 1 outlier poll that at the time was rightly discounted as an outlier.

So anything to say on the 15 or so polls just from June 2016 that said Leave was going to win?
 

pastythegreat

Well-Known Member
Yes 1 outlier poll that at the time was rightly discounted as an outlier.

So anything to say on the 15 or so polls just from June 2016 that said Leave was going to win?
Anything I'd like to say? Apart from the fact that MOST got it wrong and a handful got it right, all that matters is the right result happened on the day, and as of January next year, we'll be independent

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David O'Day

Well-Known Member
Moving away from people not understanding how polling works

The news that trump has had to admit he basically misled the US population on the seriousness of the Covid-19 threat will hurt him outside of his base.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
Anything I'd like to say? Apart from the fact that MOST got it wrong and a handful got it right, all that matters is the right result happened on the day, and as of January next year, we'll be independent

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Only 12 polls in that month which was the month leading up to the referendum called it for Remain.

So 17 polls called it for leave
12 polls called it for remain

Been a while since I went to school but "MOST" did not get it wrong.
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
Moving away from people not understanding how polling works

The news that trump has had to admit he basically misled the US population on the seriousness of the Covid-19 threat will hurt him outside of his base.

Wondering how this will play out.
Bob Woodward seems to be getting a bit of stick for holding on to the info for 6 months and only releasing it to promote his book.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
Wondering how this will play out.
Bob Woodward seems to be getting a bit of stick for holding on to the info for 6 months and only releasing it to promote his book.

Genius timing though and massively political but Trumps had to admit it and it will play against him in the vital independent demographic and with moderate republicans.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
A) Yes, i dont understand them.
B) You said NOBODY tipped corbyn to win, ive just shown you 1 poll that did.

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1 poll had him within margin of error (as in the lead is lower than the likely error rate). Also you don’t take individual pills because outliers happen for all sorts of reasons. No one outside of the most mental Corbynites ever suggested Corbyn would win.

Where polls fall down is when there’s dramatic rapid changes to the status quo like with Brexit and a lot of previous non voters deciding to vote, which throws off the voter intention model, but even then the final Brexit result was within the margin of error but the trend towards leave on the days leading up to the vote were clear:
6D78D66D-6472-43E9-9951-C2917804C7BD.png
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
Robert Harris the author likened the situation in USA to the breakdown of the Roman civilisation. He thinks massive civil war and breakdown of democracy and he knows his history
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
Robert Harris the author likened the situation in USA to the breakdown of the Roman civilisation. He thinks massive civil war and breakdown of democracy and he knows his history

Nah, the us army and state forces vs a few nutters with guns
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
Think Biden will edge it but it will be very close. The one thing Trump was right about was when he said he could stand on New York’s Fifth Avenue “and shoot somebody” and still not lose votes. Seems no matter how badly he has handled things, or anything he does or is linked to, his supporters just brush it off.

Similar to Brexit and Johnson really. Its very bizarre. There's a lot of hyperbole like 'this is how the nazis started' or calling it a cult but I'm not sure what a more accurate description would be.

Don't discount Trump refusing to go if he loses. Been very non-committal when questions around that have been asked.

Trump refusing to go if he loses is a nailed on certainty. He's already prepping his base with calls of postal votes being fraudulent. Amazing as when electoral fraud is discovered it's more likely to be by republicans. He's even openly told them to break the law and vote twice by post and in person. So expect if any postal ballot fruad is detected to be predominantly from his supporters.

This book about how he downplayed the virus. There's part of me that thinks he was just bragging in hindsight to a reporter about how he knew it would be terrible when he genuinely thought it wasn't but wants to look clever. Unfortunately not realising how that plays out in that he's then saying "I knew it was serious and did nothing so as not to scare people". Even that I don't think would be the genuine reason even if he did realise it would be bad - it'd have been because he considered the economy more important and the disaffection to his core base if he shuts down, as we saw happened.

I'd prefer it to be him not realising the severity because at least that's stupidity. Ignoring it is far worse because that shows callous intent. It's tantamount to admitting manslaughter. He made policy decisions knowing full well they would result in a lot of deaths of the people he's been put in charge of protecting.

To put it into perspective, with the current death toll (which will continue to rise) that's 65 TIMES more people than were killed on 9/11. Caused not by foreign threats or terrorists, but by their own government. Yet they need trillions of dollars to defend against terrorism but a public health system shouldn't be provided. This is fucked up and why on Earth would anyone want to look at this as a path to follow? Yet inexplicably we do.
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
Wondering how this will play out.
Bob Woodward seems to be getting a bit of stick for holding on to the info for 6 months and only releasing it to promote his book.

Shame he couldn't keep hold of it like with the Hillary thing last time. Release it a day or two prior to the election to maintain impact. Will amost certainly have been forgotten about by election day.
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
There is not going to be civil war

Not in the truest sense but if Trump loses you will see members of his base armed and on the streets 'defending democracy' because he's claimed the vote was rigged. He will not take it gracefully.

You could argue a Cold Civil War is already well underway there and is looming here.
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
Not in the truest sense but if Trump loses you will see members of his base armed and on the streets 'defending democracy' because he's claimed the vote was rigged. He will not take it gracefully.

You could argue a Cold Civil War is already well underway there and is looming here.

I thought I'd linked an article earleir (perhaps on another thread) from the Washington post claims he may try and ask Biden for an immunity deal in return for going quietly.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
Not in the truest sense but if Trump loses you will see members of his base armed and on the streets 'defending democracy' because he's claimed the vote was rigged. He will not take it gracefully.

You could argue a Cold Civil War is already well underway there and is looming here.

You saw protests when he won so that’s hardly unusual
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
I thought I'd linked an article earleir (perhaps on another thread) from the Washington post claims he may try and ask Biden for an immunity deal in return for going quietly.

That would probably be the most likely way to prevent it, even though it would effectively be an admission of guilt and many democrats would want to see as many charges against him as possible if for no other reason than they can sneer at the Trumpians at how they supported a massively dishonest crook. There may well be civil unrest either way with campaigners activists on the street demanding he be held to account - 'LOCK HIM UP!'

Part of me would prefer to see that just to add a bit of faith back into the system that someone corrupt will get their comeuppance, but it would probably be best for civic order overall to let him walk away if he wanted rather than fight it.

I can't imagine everyone will let it lie though and will be looking at the terms of immunity, what period it covers etc and try and go after him another way. I expect a lot of revelations to be made if he does leave.
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
Not in the truest sense but if Trump loses you will see members of his base armed and on the streets 'defending democracy' because he's claimed the vote was rigged. He will not take it gracefully.

You could argue a Cold Civil War is already well underway there and is looming here.

The US has been polarised for quite some time. Democrats have been arguing that successive Republican nominees are ‘dangerous’, with McCain, Romney and most obviously Trump. Certainly a case of ‘the boy who cried wolf’. Even then, the Trump presidency wasn’t as bad as has been made out. Had it not been for Covid and the civil unrest, he would probably look pretty set to win the second term.

I say this has someone who is NOT a fan of Trump or his presidency.
 
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Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Well-Known Member
For me it all comes down to Trump's opponent. I've always maintained he only won in the first place because many people gave an anti-Hillary vote.

Even though the guy up against him this time is not as bad as Hillary, he hardly inspires either. It really amazes how many bad leaders we have that are contested against by weak challengers. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Trump wins again.
 

Evo1883

Well-Known Member
I have a feeling this will be closer than people think... The Democrats on social media appear to believe this race is done, there's some very strange republican confidence too.

For what it's worth I still think Biden will win... But I wouldn't put money on it
 

Evo1883

Well-Known Member
A new des moines poll suggest that iowa will be won by trump at a canter... Which goes against all mainstream media poll predictions...
Also RCD polls suggest trump will win arizona... Against the mainstream again

The BBC poll of polls has Biden with 51% trump 42 % overall

Its so hard to trust polls these days isn't it
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
A new des moines poll suggest that iowa will be won by trump at a canter... Which goes against all mainstream media poll predictions...
Also RCD polls suggest trump will win arizona... Against the mainstream again

The BBC poll of polls has Biden with 51% trump 42 % overall

Its so hard to trust polls these days isn't it

It’s an extraordinary election when the opposition tactic is to stop the candidate campaigning
 

NorthernWisdom

Well-Known Member
It’s an extraordinary election when the opposition tactic is to stop the candidate campaigning
 

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