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US presidential Election 2020 (2 Viewers)

  • Thread starter Evo1883
  • Start date Sep 9, 2020
Forums New posts

Who will win the election

  • Biden

    Votes: 23 52.3%
  • Trump

    Votes: 21 47.7%

  • Total voters
    44
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Evo1883

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 9, 2020
  • #1
Who will win, not who you want to win, who you think will win
 

Alan Dugdales Moustache

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 9, 2020
  • #2
Anyone but psycho Trump, please. The U.S. looks on the brink of civil war at times.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 9, 2020
  • #3
Biden all the way, the individual state polling gives Trump far too much to do in the electoral college. He could potentially lose texas.
 

Evo1883

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 9, 2020
  • #4
I think Biden will just about win, but I wouldn't put money on it if I was asked to... They got it so massively wrong with hillary and the polls
 

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 9, 2020
  • #5
Got a feeling it will be a rerun of last time. Biden will win the popular vote but Trump will win the college vote and unfortunately that’s what puts you in the White House.
 
Reactions: chohan and Evo1883

Evo1883

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 9, 2020
  • #6
skybluetony176 said:
Got a feeling it will be a rerun of last time. Biden will win the popular vote but Trump will win the college vote and unfortunately that’s what puts you in the White House.
Click to expand...
Imagine the morning after
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 9, 2020
  • #7
Honestly no idea right now. It's amazing I can write that given what Trump is like but that's where we are in the modern world.

Even more division across the spectrum than here and people will vote for whichever one is wearing their preferred rosette. Again I don't think the democrats have chosen a particularly strong candidate. Electoral college system doesn't favour democrats and it appears Trump will do everything he can to try and prevent/put off those people who aren't likely to vote for him from doing so.

Could well depend on if the younger voters will show up in swing states.

One thing I can say for sure - if Trump loses he's not accepting it and stepping down.
 
Reactions: chohan and Ian1779

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 9, 2020
  • #8
David O'Day said:
Biden all the way, the individual state polling gives Trump far too much to do in the electoral college. He could potentially lose texas.
Click to expand...

Hillary was consistently ahead in the polls last time.
 

Evo1883

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 9, 2020
  • #9
Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Hillary was consistently ahead in the polls last time.
Click to expand...

I remember at the start of election night most US media outlets had hillary at a 90% plus chance of winning
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 9, 2020
  • #10
Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Honestly no idea right now. It's amazing I can write that given what Trump is like but that's where we are in the modern world.

Even more division across the spectrum than here and people will vote for whichever one is wearing their preferred rosette. Again I don't think the democrats have chosen a particularly strong candidate. Electoral college system doesn't favour democrats and it appears Trump will do everything he can to try and prevent/put off those people who aren't likely to vote for him from doing so.

Could well depend on if the younger voters will show up in swing states.

One thing I can say for sure - if Trump loses he's not accepting it and stepping down.
Click to expand...
I agree that the Dems have not picked the right guy for this fight. Biden should really get over the line given the damage Trump has done over the last 4 years but I wouldn’t bet on the outcome at all.
 
Reactions: CCFCSteve and Sky_Blue_Dreamer

pastythegreat

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 9, 2020
  • #11
Evo1883 said:
Who will win, not who you want to win, who you think will win
Click to expand...
Trump will win. Just like last time. Just like Brexit.

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 9, 2020
  • #12
If we're honest given what 2020 has been like a Trump victory would just be the shitflakes on top of a massive turdcake.
 

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 9, 2020
  • #13
Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Hillary was consistently ahead in the polls last time.
Click to expand...
The one glimmer of hope was that at no time did Hillary poll more than 50%. Biden has consistently done that. Comes down to concentration of votes. If all them extra votes are in safe states for the Democrats then the only thing that might change is by how much Biden wins the popular vote.
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 9, 2020
  • #14
Think Biden will edge it but it will be very close. The one thing Trump was right about was when he said he could stand on New York’s Fifth Avenue “and shoot somebody” and still not lose votes. Seems no matter how badly he has handled things, or anything he does or is linked to, his supporters just brush it off.

Similar to Brexit and Johnson really. Its very bizarre. There's a lot of hyperbole like 'this is how the nazis started' or calling it a cult but I'm not sure what a more accurate description would be.

Don't discount Trump refusing to go if he loses. Been very non-committal when questions around that have been asked.
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 9, 2020
  • #15
I think Trump will win by hook or by crook
 
Reactions: chohan

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 9, 2020
  • #16
I don’t like Trump, but I think he’ll win.
 
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #17
It's been a mental enough past few years that a Trump win is the new normal.
 
Reactions: Otis

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #18
Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Hillary was consistently ahead in the polls last time.
Click to expand...

Not like this, not in as many states and not by as much.
 
Reactions: shmmeee

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #19
skybluetony176 said:
The one glimmer of hope was that at no time did Hillary poll more than 50%. Biden has consistently done that. Comes down to concentration of votes. If all them extra votes are in safe states for the Democrats then the only thing that might change is by how much Biden wins the popular vote.
Click to expand...

The state by state polling is very bad for trump at the moment

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Biden is way ahead in many states that Trump won in 2016
 

pastythegreat

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #20
Do Polls even matter anymore? Are they even still relevant? EVERY single poll leading up to the brexit vote had Britain down to stay in the EU. EVERY. SINGLE. ONE. Numerous polls had Scotland down for independence too! An awful lot of polls last year tipped Corbyn, but it couldn't be any further from what actually happened. Ill wait amd see what actually happens at the end of the voting day rather than listen to the polls.

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk
 
Reactions: RegTheDonk

Otis

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #21
David O'Day said:
The state by state polling is very bad for trump at the moment

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Biden is way ahead in many states that Trump won in 2016
Click to expand...
Yeah, but if Trump denigrates some black employees, calls people taking the knee "sons of bitches", mocks someone in a wheelchair and grabs some innocent woman by their bits, people will whoop and holler and his popularity rating will suddenly soar again.
 
Reactions: Marty

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #22
pastythegreat said:
Do Polls even matter anymore? Are they even still relevant? EVERY single poll leading up to the brexit vote had Britain down to stay in the EU. EVERY. SINGLE. ONE. Numerous polls had Scotland down for independence too! An awful lot of polls last year tipped Corbyn, but it couldn't be any further from what actually happened. Ill wait amd see what actually happens at the end of the voting day rather than listen to the polls.

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

In the US they do yes, the polling averages on the state by state polls are very accurate. Clinton also won the popular vote by pretty much the same as the national pollion#g projections.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #23
Otis said:
Yeah, but if Trump denigrates some black employees, calls people taking the knee "sons of bitches", mocks someone in a wheelchair and grabs some innocent woman by their bits, people will whoop and holler and his popularity rating will suddenly soar again.
Click to expand...

Only impressed by that are his base. In the independents he's a lot lot further behind this time around.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #24
pastythegreat said:
Do Polls even matter anymore? Are they even still relevant? EVERY single poll leading up to the brexit vote had Britain down to stay in the EU. EVERY. SINGLE. ONE. Numerous polls had Scotland down for independence too! An awful lot of polls last year tipped Corbyn, but it couldn't be any further from what actually happened. Ill wait amd see what actually happens at the end of the voting day rather than listen to the polls.

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

"EVERY.SINGLE.ONE"

Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org
 

pastythegreat

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #25
David O'Day said:
"EVERY.SINGLE.ONE"

Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org
Click to expand...
Like 4-5 polls out of about 200 of them had it down as leave. Plus 1 of those 4-5 is the actual result so 3 exit polls from around 200 got it right?!?!
So i slightly exaggerated, but this doesn't really help prove polls are accurate does it?!

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #26
pastythegreat said:
Do Polls even matter anymore? Are they even still relevant? EVERY single poll leading up to the brexit vote had Britain down to stay in the EU. EVERY. SINGLE. ONE. Numerous polls had Scotland down for independence too! An awful lot of polls last year tipped Corbyn, but it couldn't be any further from what actually happened. Ill wait amd see what actually happens at the end of the voting day rather than listen to the polls.

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

No polls tipped Corbyn, or Scottish independence, Brexit changed in the last few days. Hillary won the popular vote.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #27
pastythegreat said:
Like 4-5 polls out of about 200 of them had it down as leave. Plus 1 of those 4-5 is the actual result so 3 exit polls from around 200 got it right?!?!
So i slightly exaggerated, but this doesn't really help prove polls are accurate does it?!

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

There's 17 polls in June 2016 alone that that said out was going to win.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #28
shmmeee said:
No polls tipped Corbyn, or Scottish independence, Brexit changed in the last few days. Hillary won the popular vote.
Click to expand...

I've looked at the Scottish Referendum polling and in 2 years of polling only 3 outliers ever said Out was going to win.
 
Reactions: shmmeee

Marty

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #29
Will be Trump again.
 

pastythegreat

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #30
shmmeee said:
No polls tipped Corbyn, or Scottish independence, Brexit changed in the last few days. Hillary won the popular vote.
Click to expand...
Indy ref had numerous polls in favour of Yes.

And 2019 elections, okay, this is only 1 opinion poll, but an opinion poll favoured corbyn.

Opinion polls get it wrong, time after time after time.

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #31
pastythegreat said:
Indy ref had numerous polls in favour of Yes.

And 2019 elections, okay, this is only 1 opinion poll, but an opinion poll favoured corbyn.

Opinion polls get it wrong, time after time after time.

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Polling will always have outliers though, that's just a by-product of the methodology they use to extrapolate the result from the raw data.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #32

Opinion polling for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

For the avoidance of doubt here is a list of Scottish Ref polls taken before the 2014 referendum. In the 4 years before the referendum there had been a grand total of 4 polls that said the Yes campaign was going to win.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #33
pastythegreat said:
Indy ref had numerous polls in favour of Yes.

And 2019 elections, okay, this is only 1 opinion poll, but an opinion poll favoured corbyn.

Opinion polls get it wrong, time after time after time.

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

What you’ve shown there is you don’t understand outliers or margins of error. Both those screenshots show polling overwhelmingly in favour of No and the Tories.
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #34
Evo1883 said:
Imagine the morning after
Click to expand...

Think it will be worse if Trump loses.
He's potentially fighting for his freedom here.
Talk he'll try and do a deal with Biden if he loses to go quietly. Hopefully, whoever wins, the whole country chills out. Horrendous to see them tearing themselves apart.

How Trump May Be Plotting to Stay Out of Jail | Washington Monthly

He could be planning for the "ultimate deal"—this time, with Joe Biden.
washingtonmonthly.com
 

Nick

Administrator
  • Sep 10, 2020
  • #35
When is it?
 
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