Trump is my favourite comedian of the year already (8 Viewers)

[SBT]

His only hope is the Supreme Court wins it for him, but I think that’s a massive long shot. If he’s officially lost the machinery of the state will remove him. At worst he’ll sulk and refuse to do the handover.

This is the best article on ways it could play out if things are close/Trump refuses to concede. Long but good. Personally I think if the election doesn't look especially close, many of Trump's allies in government will abandon him quite quickly, but don't underestimate the number of Republicans who will stay loyal to him for the simple reason that the rank-and-file adore him. Watch out for an absolute massacre in terms of Trump's cabinet between the election and inauguration - if Trump thinks he can get an edge by replacing the Defense Sec, FBI Director or even AG, he will do it (he hates them all anyway).

The post-election pardon stuff is an interesting one - strikes me as the kind of thing Biden would be up for whether it was a condition of Trump conceding or not. May well be the smartest thing for the Dems long-term - would be catastrophic for Biden's short-term popularity, but he's only ever going to be a one-term president anyway (if that).

 

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[clint van damme]

He won’t get prosecuted there is zero chance

he's not so sure, he's all ready had his lawyers approach the supreme court to ask for immunity from civilian prosecution while in office

President Trump to claim 'absolute immunity' from subpoenas in Supreme Court appeal

Attorneys for President Donald Trump this week will ask the U.S. Supreme Court to grant him sweeping immunity from investigation by Congress and local prosecutors.

abcnews.go.com

I hope you're right, I think he needs to go quietly and be allowed to do so if that country has any chance of calming down.

 

[David O'Day]

His only hope is the Supreme Court wins it for him, but I think that’s a massive long shot. If he’s officially lost the machinery of the state will remove him. At worst he’ll sulk and refuse to do the handover.

Congress could remove him I believe with regards to close or disputed elections

 

[tisza]

He will if he gets immunity from prosecution, apparently Biden would give him it but there are people who need to buy in to it who aren't having it at all.
I think if he loses it would be better for everyone if he got it and went quietly. He wouldn't be the first.

Prosecution for what exactly? Taxes? Some of these sex allegations?
Taxes Biden might allow a deal but would cause uproar amongst Democrats if he was given a complete free pass on that.
Any interference on the sex allegations would again cause havoc amongst supporters.
Misuse of office - possibly gets a pardon if not too extreme.

 

[clint van damme]

Prosecution for what exactly? Taxes? Some of these sex allegations?
Taxes Biden might allow a deal but would cause uproar amongst Democrats if he was given a complete free pass on that.
Any interference on the sex allegations would again cause havoc amongst supporters.
Misuse of office - possibly gets a pardon if not too extreme.

I thought the New York tax case is the one he's really worried about but that didn't really come to light until autumn and his immunity request was spring, unless he knew what was coming.

 

[SBT]

Prosecution for what exactly? Taxes? Some of these sex allegations?
Taxes Biden might allow a deal but would cause uproar amongst Democrats if he was given a complete free pass on that.
Any interference on the sex allegations would again cause havoc amongst supporters.
Misuse of office - possibly gets a pardon if not too extreme.

Nixon got a "full, free and absolute pardon...for all offenses against the United States" over the period of his presidency.

 

[shmmeee]

He won’t get prosecuted. It’s not worth the fall out or the damage to the office.

 

[tisza]

Nixon got a "full, free and absolute pardon...for all offenses against the United States" over the period of his presidency.

Given by someone from his own party

 

[tisza]

He won’t get prosecuted. It’s not worth the fall out or the damage to the office.

would imagine how much comes to light (once a "Democrat" DOJ stops blocking investigations and has to investigate) will determine prosecutions or not. These offences do relate to a time before he was President.
Doesn't protect him from all the private cases against re: the sexual activities etc. that have been held up.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Congress could remove him I believe with regards to close or disputed elections

They already could with the blatant Saudi corruption he’s been indulging in but the Senate would never pass it

 

[David O'Day]

They already could with the blatant Saudi corruption he’s been indulging in but the Senate would never pass it

In the case of there being clear winner or a disputed result the house and house only chooses.

 

[David O'Day]

They already could with the blatant Saudi corruption he’s been indulging in but the Senate would never pass it

The 12th Amendment deals with this

 

[shmmeee]

would imagine how much comes to light (once a "Democrat" DOJ stops blocking investigations and has to investigate) will determine prosecutions or not. These offences do relate to a time before he was President.
Doesn't protect him from all the private cases against re: the sexual activities etc. that have been held up.

I don’t know the details of the cases TBF, just think there’ll be a will to “move on from Trump” if at all possible.

 

[NorthernWisdom]

The world's mad.


Who knew this kind of thing would be debated in Covid?!?

 

[shmmeee]

Oh God Freeman of the Land types. I remember a mate that had some shit printed on his door that he claimed kept bailiffs away

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

The 12th Amendment deals with this

It’s a violation of the emoluments clause

 

[David O'Day]

It’s a violation of the emoluments clause

Forgive me but what does that clause have to do with deciding who becomes President?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Forgive me but what does that clause have to do with deciding who becomes President?

I was talking about impeachment attempts

 

[Mcbean]

well this is boiling up for some good fun - have watched the Trump show and laughed out loud - going to try and follow the news overnight - sort of seems similar to last time with Trump and Clinton - much hatred between the two like a boxing match

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

well this is boiling up for some good fun - have watched the Trump show and laughed out loud - going to try and follow the news overnight - sort of seems similar to last time with Trump and Clinton - much hatred between the two like a boxing match

Don’t think it’s anywhere near as close

 

[David O'Day]

Don’t think it’s anywhere near as close

I'll a massive shock if it is that close, you are likely to have to wait until tomorrow for a declared winner but you should hopefully have an indication of how it is going.

As BSB said at the moment if Trump wins all states he is leading in or within 5 points of Biden he only draws the electoral college.

538 say he has a 10% chance of winning

 

[Mcbean]

But the polls were wrong before ?

 

[NorthernWisdom]

But the polls were wrong before ?

Not this much.

That being said, the fact we have a President Trump at all, is enough for me not to trust that he won't be anymore!

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Not this much.

That being said, the fact we have a President Trump at all, is enough for me not to trust that he won't be anymore!

Me too

 

[David O'Day]

But the polls were wrong before ?

Were they? They predicted a small lead in votes for Clinton and she won the popular vote.

Bit even if you argue they were wrong in 2016 they were nowhere near as wrong as they have to be for trump to win.

It is possible just very unlikely

 

[chiefdave]

But the polls were wrong before ?

If you apply the same margin of error as we saw last time its still a Biden win. Saying that nothing would come as a surprise anymore.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

If you apply the same margin of error as we saw last time its still a Biden win. Saying that nothing would come as a surprise anymore.

Part of me wants it to be a complete shit show so the USA is shown up for the deeply divided nation that it is

 

[skybluetony176]

But the polls were wrong before ?

“They” have apparently weighted the polls this time to account for what they got wrong in 2016. If that’s true we should be waking up to some good news in the morning.

 

[djr8369]

In my opinion the risk of Trump “winning” will come from it being a bit tighter than expected and them clinching a few key states by using legal challenges to get say the mail in votes declared void. If he gets ahead at all he’ll then try and declare before rest of the count is in. It will be easy enough to put enough disinformation out to create enough doubt for people to shrug their shoulders and let it happen.

 

[djr8369]

In my opinion the risk of Trump “winning” will come from it being a bit tighter than expected and them clinching a few key states by using legal challenges to get say the mail in votes declared void. If he gets ahead at all he’ll then try and declare before rest of the count is in. It will be easy enough to put enough disinformation out to create enough doubt for people to shrug their shoulders and let it happen.

That said I think (hope?) that the narrative Trump is trying to build is more about his ego rather than to alter the result.

 

[NorthernWisdom]

This is in many ways stating the obvious, but point 2 is interesting, about Trump's rallies being used to sign people up.

US election 2020: Three election headlines you could wake up to

There are three possible scenarios, plus an extraordinary one, says the BBC's Jon Sopel.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[David O'Day]

“They” have apparently weighted the polls this time to account for what they got wrong in 2016. If that’s true we should be waking up to some good news in the morning.

Yeah they have tried to correct the methodology

 

[djr8369]

This is in many ways stating the obvious, but point 2 is interesting, about Trump's rallies being used to sign people up.

US election 2020: Three election headlines you could wake up to

There are three possible scenarios, plus an extraordinary one, says the BBC's Jon Sopel.

www.bbc.co.uk

In the crazy reality we’re now in number four feels like a certainty!

 

[jimmyhillsfanclub]

Polling is dead....its so 20th century....

Betfair currently has Biden @ 4/7 & Trump @ 6/4.

I won handsomely on trump 4 years ago...think I got 9/1 IIRC.....But I'm not betting on this one!

 

[Malaka]

I'm hoping that Biden wins. The company that predicted Trump would be president and called Brexit, said Trump would win again by a landslide. I stuck a fiver on Trump on Bet365. If he wins I can drown my sorrows with a bottle of Jack.