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The Final Run In (1 Viewer)

  • Thread starter stupot07
  • Start date Feb 24, 2020
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Ring Of Steel

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 24, 2020
  • #36
My head hurts with all these detailed mathematical analyses of the rest of the season, I might start studying applied statistics to get me over the line with it all
 
Reactions: TTG, CanadianCCFC and Sky Blue Pete

SkyBlueDom26

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 24, 2020
  • #37
Ring Of Steel said:
My head hurts with all these detailed mathematical analyses of the rest of the season, I might start studying applied statistics to get me over the line with it all
Click to expand...
Get @ @Philosorapter
 
Reactions: TTG, Skyblueweeman and wingy

Philosoraptor

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 24, 2020
  • #38
Just take one game at a time. Everything else which goes on in the league is academic.

In the same way the graph type thing shows Coventry's path throughout the season, it's not rocket science to do the same with every other team in the mix as well.

Just very time consuming.

To quote a phrase. There are a lot of known unknowns.

It's way too early yet to begin looking at everyone else, and you can only affect the games which you play in.

It's good fun though.
 
Reactions: Astute, CanadianCCFC, Iancro and 3 others

Philosoraptor

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 24, 2020
  • #39
i would add that if we are looking to be champions then we do need to build a points cushion on second place but that goes without saying.

Everyone is going to slip up.

Last years winners won on 1720 ish rating points. We are around there at the moment. Second was around 1700 rating points.
 
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Speedies_Chips

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 24, 2020
  • #40
COVKIDSNEVERQUIT said:
It's in are,

Click to expand...
our
 
Reactions: TTG, skyblueinBaku, skybluerors and 3 others
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steve cooper

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 24, 2020
  • #41
One good thing is we don't play anyone who needs the points to stay up, except possibly (though unlikely) Wimbledon on the last day. Other than that, the lowest teams we play are Shrewsbury and Blackpool, both currently 15 points clear of the drop zone. It's looking like mid 30's will be enough to avoid relegation.
 

cc84cov

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #42
Who cares who we play we’ve lost 3 all season & seemed to have fully hit top gear 5 on the bounce

I fear no one in this league !
 

stupot07

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #43
steve cooper said:
Portsmouth are only 2 points behind Peterborough and have 2 games in hand, so in reality are probably higher up the table than Peterborough
Click to expand...
Just for you


Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk
 
Reactions: steve cooper
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steve cooper

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #44
cc84cov said:
Who cares who we play we’ve lost 3 all season & seemed to have fully hit top gear 5 on the bounce

I fear no one in this league !
Click to expand...
Everything that is in our favour helps though.
 

SkyBlueSoul

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #45
Not really stats but feel this belongs here. Someone simulated the run-in 25 million times and it looks glorious

 
Reactions: Skyblueweeman, Saddlebrains, MalcSB and 6 others

Philosoraptor

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #46
I don't show this stuff usually but here is tomorrow's predictions.

You need to add home advantage into the equation by yourself.

Don't bet you house on it.

 
Reactions: Skybluemichael and SkyBlueDom26

CanadianCCFC

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #47
stupot07 said:
Right, I've gone through all the remaining fixtures and mapped them for the current top 6.
Normal is home game
Italics away game
Red are against other top 6 teams
Blue are games against current bottom 6
We will catch up with Rotherham with games in hand after the Wycome game on 24th March.

View attachment 14202
Click to expand...
We have a lot of red
 

Otis

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #48
CanadianCCFC said:
We have a lot of red
Click to expand...
Sometimes though, at the death, the toughest games can be against those fighting relegation.
 
Reactions: Astute, TTG, CanadianCCFC and 1 other person

Londonccfcfan

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #49
NewsNow: Loading story...

This says we are favorites for promotion.....
 
Reactions: wingy

BornSlippySkyBlue

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #50
Londonccfcfan said:
NewsNow: Loading story...

This says we are favorites for promotion.....
Click to expand...
It also says we have a 78% chance of promotion. We can argue the toss about the validity of statistical models like this, but that figure certainly suggests we aren’t being over optimistic with our talk of titles and promotions.

Strange feeling!
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete

the rumpo kid

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #51
Philosorapter said:
I don't show this stuff usually but here is tomorrow's predictions.

You need to add home advantage into the equation by yourself.

Don't bet you house on it.

View attachment 14203
Click to expand...
And that means what exactly?
 
Reactions: wingy
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wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #52
BornSlippySkyBlue said:
It also says we have a 78% chance of promotion. We can argue the toss about the validity of statistical models like this, but that figure certainly suggests we aren’t being over optimistic with our talk of titles and promotions.

Strange feeling!
Click to expand...
Only as good as the data input.
Must be pretty decent!!
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #53
wingy said:
Only as good as the data input.
Must be pretty decent!!
Click to expand...
And will change after tonight’s game
 

Ring Of Steel

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #54
I’m not bad with a spreadsheet, I’m gonna rustle one up today with so many colours and calculations it’ll have everyone talking for weeks.
 
Reactions: CanadianCCFC

Philosoraptor

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #55
the rumpo kid said:
And that means what exactly?
Click to expand...

You'll find this stuff, which in my opinion, whatever that's worth, is at the cutting edge in a particular area of sports stats from the net, then post it on a fan site and stand well back.
 
Last edited: Feb 25, 2020
Reactions: Skyblueweeman and robbiethemole
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skybluesam66

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #56
Philosorapter said:
You find the latest thing, which in my opinion, whatever that's worth, is at the cutting edge in a particular area of sports stats from the net, then post it on a fan site and stand well back.
Click to expand...
I think what the poster was saying, is that such a chart without a key to the colours is meaningless
so may be at the cutting edge, but presentation is at primary school
 
Reactions: TTG, speedie87 and wingy

the rumpo kid

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #57
Philosorapter said:
You find the latest thing, which in my opinion, whatever that's worth, is at the cutting edge in a particular area of sports stats from the net, then post it on a fan site and stand well back.
Click to expand...
It's just colours next to games with no explanation?
 

Philosoraptor

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #58
Have fun..

 
Reactions: ccfchoi87

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #59
Philosorapter said:
I don't show this stuff usually but here is tomorrow's predictions.

You need to add home advantage into the equation by yourself.

Don't bet you house on it.

View attachment 14203
Click to expand...

Is...is that good?
 

Philosoraptor

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #60
shmmeee said:
Is...is that good?
Click to expand...

Good is very subjective
 
R

robbiethemole

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #61
where's the bloke with the line graph showing our upward trajectory and stuff???
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #62
Philosorapter said:
Good is very subjective
Click to expand...

Tease. Tell us the relevance of blue and orange.
 

Liquid Gold

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #63
A few weeks ago we said 83 would probably do it this year but I'm starting to feel like that won't be enough. A few teams are really kicking into gear now, us included.
 
Reactions: stupot07

stupot07

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #64
Liquid Gold said:
A few weeks ago we said 83 would probably do it this year but I'm starting to feel like that won't do it. A few teams are really kicking into gear now, us included.
Click to expand...
I think autos are going to be about 88-90 points now. Literally us, rotherham and sunderland have been going at it toe-to-toe, matching each other for point for point over the last 12 games.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk
 

Philosoraptor

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #65
shmmeee said:
Tease. Tell us the relevance of blue and orange.
Click to expand...

They're just rough markers.

Have noticed Fleetwood name is wrong. Ooh dear.. changed it.
 
Last edited: Feb 25, 2020

Skyblueweeman

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #66
The thing is with this league, it's close because anyone can beat anyone. I like to see this table laid out with the other teams and their run ins and whilst I think ours looks like one of the toughest run ins, there's going to be unexpected results along the way.

People saying how good Sunderland are...the lost to Pompey at the start of the month and apparently it should've been 4-0 (as opposed to 2-0). Pompey, despite being fairly lofty in the table, are playing some poor football but are grinding out results. The two most consistent teams are us and Rotherham...tonight is such a massive game. But as for the rest of the run in, I'm not bothering myself about what the others do.

It's in our hands...I think we can do this!!!
 

covcity4life

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #67
stupot07 said:
I think autos are going to be about 88-90 points now. Literally us, rotherham and sunderland have been going at it toe-to-toe, matching each other for point for point over the last 12 games.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Agree bit form changes. Ours included

If we can get 7 or 8 wins it may ebd up being ebough og subderland or rotheram pick up a few draws instead of wins down the stretch
 
Reactions: stupot07

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #68
stupot07 said:
I think autos are going to be about 88-90 points now. Literally us, rotherham and sunderland have been going at it toe-to-toe, matching each other for point for point over the last 12 games.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
For Sunderland to get 88 points they need to win 10 and draw 1 of their last 12 games.
Rotherham need to with 9 and draw 1 of 12 games
We need to win 9 and draw 1 of 13 games

if we all do that we deserve to go up automatically.

If Sunderland lose tonight they have to go unbeaten to the end of the season
 
Reactions: covcity4life and clint van damme
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skybluesam66

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #69
League One - Table calculator

one for you all to try
I had us 2nd on 85 points

you have to go back to previous weeks, to find the games that were initially postponed
 
W

wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 25, 2020
  • #70
Philosorapter said:
Have fun..

View attachment 14204
Click to expand...
Can you expand some of these as they go out focus on phone screens.
 
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