FFS! WE ARE STILL ONLY 3 POINTS FROM THE PLAYOFFS!!! (2 Viewers)

pastythegreat

Well-Known Member
We need to buck a trend for sure.

This is why I feel ST sales will drop next year. Be some who will say we can build on this season, but so many more who will be expecting midtable at best next season.

We need to make sure we are indeed competitive, but I think fans are getting tired of failure and are used to City not making a fist of things.
3 less STs here next year already. I might get a match package and pick and choose my games, regardless of which league were in.
I've had a ST since I was 9, minus a 7 year gap when I was in the Army (and the year in sixfields, I've had a ST ever since. Now at 34 it'll be the first season I've not renewed (having the chance).

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SkyblueBazza

Well-Known Member
That depends on a few factors.

Eg pricing, what many 100s or 1000s moan about.

Maddison is guaranteed to go.

Thats a game changer even if we get a fraction of the 15/20% of Maddison money.

Also, our best player arguably one of the best in league is back.

I agree Bayliss will be gone. But that will be it. And again a fraction of his money will be re invested.

We havnt sold anyone of importance in 3 transfer windows, so we will be stronger.

If we stick with continuity. The players and manager will know the league better.
Another unguessable chunk of ST holders might decide they don't wish to throw good money after bad watching mediocrity too...regardless of prices

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Esoterica

Well-Known Member
Another unguessable chunk of ST holders might decide they don't wish to throw good money after bad watching mediocrity too...regardless of prices

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I would even say that if we don't get at least 1 win from the next 2 games a number of people with ST won't be turning up for the remaining home games this season.
 

Sky Blue Harry H

Well-Known Member
Every year we have this, I'm not getting one outpouring. You do, you don't.....free country (I am, though !)
 

Johnnythespider

Well-Known Member
or that he has a very good win ratio and he isn't playing for draws?
That win ratio over the next 14 games won't get us promoted. We need to win 10 I would say to make sure we are in the play offs, a big ask.
 

Hadji's_Goatee

Well-Known Member
That win ratio over the next 14 games won't get us promoted. We need to win 10 I would say to make sure we are in the play offs, a big ask.
Actually, the average amount of points to qualify for the playoffs over the last 16 seasons is 70 pts. The lowest being 63 and the highest being 74. In fact the stats suggest that 10 wins could edge us into the 3rd spot for the autos. With 80 pts being the average over the same period. With the highest being 85 and the lowest being 74.

7 wins should do it for playoffs and we could achieve that without improving our away record. Even losing the next 2 games isn’t the end of the world, there is still 7 winnable games in the other fixtures plus a couple of draws.

Anything from the next 2 is a bonus in my eyes.
 

Legia Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
Actually, the average amount of points to qualify for the playoffs over the last 16 seasons is 70 pts. The lowest being 63 and the highest being 74. In fact the stats suggest that 10 wins could edge us into the 3rd spot for the autos. With 80 pts being the average over the same period. With the highest being 85 and the lowest being 74.

7 wins should do it for playoffs and we could achieve that without improving our away record. Even losing the next 2 games isn’t the end of the world, there is still 7 winnable games in the other fixtures plus a couple of draws.

Anything from the next 2 is a bonus in my eyes.
Comparing previous seasons provides a guide that might be useful at the start of the season but this far into the season a better guide is to see the average points per game the current 3rd & 7th placed teams have & transpose it to a 46 game season. Doing this indicates that this season the points required are going to be much higher than in an average season, with 86 for 3rd & 77 for 7th, Even if one of the current Top 7 slip up, Lincoln in 8th are currently heading for 74 points at their current average points per game so it looks like a bigger ask than some of us are expecting. Still not impossible but we really need something out of these next 2 games, more so in that we really can't afford 2 of our rivals to get an even bigger lead on us than they already have.
 

Otis

Well-Known Member
Comparing previous seasons provides a guide that might be useful at the start of the season but this far into the season a better guide is to see the average points per game the current 3rd & 7th placed teams have & transpose it to a 46 game season. Doing this indicates that this season the points required are going to be much higher than in an average season, with 86 for 3rd & 77 for 7th, Even if one of the current Top 7 slip up, Lincoln in 8th are currently heading for 74 points at their current average points per game so it looks like a bigger ask than some of us are expecting. Still not impossible but we really need something out of these next 2 games, more so in that we really can't afford 2 of our rivals to get an even bigger lead on us than they already have.
This is the league table from last season after 33/34 games.

Screenshot_2018-02-22-20-17-11.png

And this is it now.

Screenshot_2018-02-22-20-19-40.png
 

Otis

Well-Known Member
That last table actually is incorrect and doesn't include the Exeter win from Tuesday.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
That last table actually is incorrect and doesn't include the Exeter win from Tuesday.

Kind of disoroves your argument then.
 

Otis

Well-Known Member
Kind of disoroves your argument then.
It's only the Exeter points that really make a difference. Notts County also played, but lost.

Just add 3 points on for Exeter. Should be easy for someone with your high intellect.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
It's only the Exeter points that really make a difference. Notts County also played, but lost.

Just add 3 points on for Exeter. Should be easy for someone with your high intellect.

No I’m referring to the fact a team 15th got promoted.
 

Otis

Well-Known Member
Screenshot_2018-02-22-21-08-30.png
Previous website hadn't updated their tables. This is the correct one courtesy of the BBC.
 

Otis

Well-Known Member
No I’m referring to the fact a team 15th got promoted.
Ahh, right. Yep. Definite anomaly. Can be done, but very rare.

Always said we can still make the play-offs. We just need to buck the current trend and that of many previous City seasons too.
 

Captain Dart

Well-Known Member
View attachment 9126
Previous website hadn't updated their tables. This is the correct one courtesy of the BBC.

Nearly every single one of those towns above us are a lot smaller than Coventry, rather surprised how poor Nottingham fare & Luton have pedigree but the rest!

We should be no worse than 3rd.

Coventry 316,900
Luton 240,000
Wycombe 125,000
Accrington 35,000
Mansfield 100,000
Nottingham 321,500
Swindon 183,000
Exeter 130,000
Lincoln 130,000
Crawley 107,000
 

Captain Dart

Well-Known Member
Size of Cov means fook all, otherwise we’d be in the premier league!
That is not really true, there is a lot of potential support which turns up in the right circumstances.
 

Ricketts

Well-Known Member
You have to say, fair play to Accrington. Right down there last year, now flying high and playing decent football.
 

Esoterica

Well-Known Member
You have to say, fair play to Accrington. Right down there last year, now flying high and playing decent football.
They lost in the play off semi finals the year before and started last season very badly but in the end they finished 5 points off the play offs after a 15 game unbeaten run. They've carried that form and momentum on into this year.
 

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
Ahh, right. Yep. Definite anomaly. Can be done, but very rare.

Always said we can still make the play-offs. We just need to buck the current trend and that of many previous City seasons too.

Looking at the last 10 seasons only twice has a team needed more than 72 points to finish 7th. In both of those seasons there was a fair (5+ pt) gap to 8th, which looks very unlikely this season. Assuming this is the case as an absolute minimum we need to win 7-8 of the remaining games. Looking at the fixtures it's certainly possible but needs a radical change in approach from the manager.
 

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
Comparing previous seasons provides a guide that might be useful at the start of the season but this far into the season a better guide is to see the average points per game the current 3rd & 7th placed teams have & transpose it to a 46 game season. Doing this indicates that this season the points required are going to be much higher than in an average season, with 86 for 3rd & 77 for 7th, Even if one of the current Top 7 slip up, Lincoln in 8th are currently heading for 74 points at their current average points per game so it looks like a bigger ask than some of us are expecting. Still not impossible but we really need something out of these next 2 games, more so in that we really can't afford 2 of our rivals to get an even bigger lead on us than they already have.

If everyone continues their season average the league table will remain identical at the end. It won't.
 

Legia Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
If everyone continues their season average the league table will remain identical at the end. It won't.
Agreed, of course teams will swap positions & there are no definites, Some teams will rise and some will drop like Blackpool & Carlisle did last season, but the average points calculation is a better guide than most. It certainly was last season - the table Otis put up showed Stevenage in 7th on 52 points off 34 games, which transposes to 70 points over 46 games, which is exactly what Blackpool ended up with when they finished in 7th place. The way the league is this season I don't see 72 points being enough. If we carry on as we have been this season our average works out at 72 over a whole season, so if 72 is enough we don't have to improve on our season so far to make the play offs, so happy days :)
 

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
Agreed, of course teams will swap positions & there are no definites, Some teams will rise and some will drop like Blackpool & Carlisle did last season, but the average points calculation is a better guide than most. It certainly was last season - the table Otis put up showed Stevenage in 7th on 52 points off 34 games, which transposes to 70 points over 46 games, which is exactly what Blackpool ended up with when they finished in 7th place. The way the league is this season I don't see 72 points being enough. If we carry on as we have been this season our average works out at 72 over a whole season, so if 72 is enough we don't have to improve on our season so far to make the play offs, so happy days

Because there isn't much between most teams in this league the average 7th placed team pretty consistently gets around 70 points. However, recent form trumps whole season form when gauging prospects for the final run-in.
 

Otis

Well-Known Member
And you know it will be bumped again on Saturday whether we are no points off, 4 points off or 6 points off.

To be quite honest, we may as well just leave it as a sticky.
 

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