I imagine the Venn diagram of Obama haters and those who haven’t heard of the Cheshire Cat would be pretty homogenousEven Obama’s approval ratings were persistently underwater, he was far from a universally loved politician. Must have been that Cheshire Cat grin of his.
The battleground there is the 18-30 year olds who voted either Labour or Lib Dem in 2024. It's the ideology age bracket.You’re v dismissive of the threat the Greens pose to Labour.
You’re v dismissive of the threat the Greens pose to Labour. It’s as if you haven’t learned from the rise of Reform at all. Do you think in 2020/21 that the tories felt Reform would get 15% of the vote by 2024? Absolutely not. I know this because a friend of mine worked for a Tory MP. They laughed off the threat and Reform may wipe them out.
2017 was the most 2 party election since the 1970s. With how fragmented the party political system is right now, it’s unlikely Labour keep their 2024 vote share of 35%, let alone improve it to the high 30s to 40% mark.
On Reform, people have been adjusting their ‘ceiling’ for Reform. First it was 15%, now it’s 35%. Which, isn’t insignificant because Labour just got 35% of the popular vote and have a stinking majority. Your seat totals snowball after you hit 30% in first past the post electoral systems.
What could help Labour, is that tactical voting. Lib Dem and Green voters could swing behind Reform to prevent Reform. That said, a lot of left wing voters are equally dissatisfied with this government so why would they keep a “Tory lite” party in government?
To add to this, Starmer and Reeves’ personal ratings are horrible. Farage is equally divisive but like Trump, people will vote ‘for change’ and whether that’s enough to win an election… it’s
A reduced Labour majority and/or Lab/LD coalition is wishful thinking. It’s not even 1 year into the parliament and it doesn’t get much better from here popularity wise.
Any party sneers at its base at its peril. My concern is seeing how little the party is doing with a colossal majority, it will do even less with a much reduced one.Look, I joke about the lefties on here like BSB and FP wanting a Reform govt, but I don’t actually think they do.
It’s not wishful thinking, it’s a basic reading of the polls and what everyone who isn’t hopped up in Twitter thinks is the most likely outcome next election.
What’s wishful thinking is applying a load of protest votes a year into a government to a model for the next election.
Any party sneers at its base at its peril. My concern is seeing how little the party is doing with a colossal majority, it will do even less with a much reduced one.
Is this the new playbook after ‘he will be left wing once he gets in’?Got to listen to your backbenchers with a smaller majority.
I'd like to think you're rightTo be honest, it’s a dumb policy from Reform and some of their policies economically that are populist are just a reflection of their growing ‘coalition’ of voters.
All in all, they’re risking credibility as a government in waiting and as the opinion polls are showing, a Reform government is a probability rather than a possibility right now.
A lot can change but does the party have elite talent and a credible policy platform? Not for me.
If the Tories and Labour hadn’t haemorrhaged trust on the issue of immigration, Farage would still be a TV host.
Is this the new playbook after ‘he will be left wing once he gets in’?
Look, I joke about the lefties on here like BSB and FP wanting a Reform govt, but I don’t actually think they do.
It’s not wishful thinking, it’s a basic reading of the polls and what everyone who isn’t hopped up in Twitter thinks is the most likely outcome next election.
What’s wishful thinking is applying a load of protest votes a year into a government to a model for the next election.
I’m just saying you switched from ‘he’ll be left wing when he gets in’ to ‘he’s saving the good stuff for later’ to ‘he’ll be left wing when his majority is lower’.Just saying if you don’t like Starmer he has less power with a lower majority. That’s just basic maths. Can’t have a 100 MP rebellion in a party of 200.
I’m just saying you switched from ‘he’ll be left wing when he gets in’ to ‘he’s saving the good stuff for later’ to ‘he’ll be left wing when his majority is lower’.
So taking the left wing of the Labour Party for granted? The Tories neglected the Tory right and they’re facing genuine extinction-level polling because Reform is hoovering up their vote. It’s touch and go for their survival as we speak.
Labour got 35% of the vote to win and governments v rarely improve their vote share for a second term as a rule. Taking their current YouGov polling at 23%, where are they regaining 12%? That’s to achieve parity with 2024 where small swings to Reform alone would cost close to 100 seats if not more (without taking wales into account where Plaid & Reform are surging). What definitely won’t be picked up in polling is the pro-Gaza independents that will disproportionately impact Labour.
In any case, the polls are swinging toward Reform. They have just topped Sky/YouGov polling for the first time but there is a Ipsos Mori poll that has Reform at 34% with the Tories wiped out on 12 seats (not a typo) and Labour losing 234 seats. At this stage, polling needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. How does Labour recover such a bad position? Either Reform implodes, there’s industrial scale tactical voting in seats or the PLP kicks out a Labour PM which is hitherto yet to happen.
You're fundamentally underestimating how disillusioned the electorate is with the establishment parties. If Labour nor the Conservatives adapt meaningfully, they will be swept away.
I want him to be more left wing because I think it’ll see off the Farage threat more effectively than tinkering around the edges and stealing people’s PIPIm fine with him. You want him to be more left wing but claimed that’s less likely with a lower majority because you like saying stuff like that but it’s bollocks isn’t it? Sorry for pointing it out.
I want him to be more left wing because I think it’ll see off the Farage threat more effectively than tinkering around the edges and stealing people’s PIP
They do economically.Yeah Reform voters yearn for the Corbyn.
I'm relaying what it says on twitter you big cry babyNo one has called it a confidence vote. Get a grip.
They do economically.
I'm relaying what it says on twitter you big cry baby
Is this the new playbook after ‘he will be left wing once he gets in’?
If people see their own quality of life improve and that they get more in return for their taxes, they will care less about immigration and Farage will have fewer desperate people to exploit.Tax the wealthy? Invest in public services? That kind of thing? But also crack down on immigration?
I’m sure you’d support a PM doing those things as they’d be sure to “stave off the Reform threat”
He tells the electorate what they don’t want to hear and then brags about shaving £5 off the deficit.What does Starmer stand for? He is a chameleon and will tell the electorate what they want to hear. A leftie when running for leadership and a moderate to the general public to become PM. It is also why this government has made so many U-turns already because he’s also too weak to see out his policies to the end. There’s even rumours Reeves will do a U-turn on non-doms too.
The manifesto was deliberately vague because they didn’t need to woo voters - we were fed up of Tory rule for 14 years. In my mind, this has the obvious problem because there’s no guiding principle that underpins this government.
It would be mental if two consecutive governments manage to implode so badly with large majorities.
On ‘vibes’ alone, we’ll be at the polls in 27/28 for a general election because if this government is facing rebellions this size in the first year, it doesn’t look good ‘brav’. It’s as if the government is running out of steam already.
Youre very naively reading one off polls that suit your view and ignoring everything we know about FPTP and the election cycle.
If people see their own quality of life improve and that they get more in return for their taxes, they will care less about immigration and Farage will have fewer desperate people to exploit.
At the moment this is peak rip off Britain and vast swathes of the country remain either written off or forgotten about.
He tells the electorate what they don’t want to hear and then brags about shaving £5 off the deficit.
Happy to disagree on that one. My belief remains that people have rightly noticed that they’re getting screwed over, but have been led astray in assigning blame and identifying solutions. I see the immigration issue as one of many symptoms that the country is in bad shape, not the cause.With respect, the pot is calling the kettle black.
Starmer and Reeves’ personal ratings and the overall polling of ‘is the country moving in the right direction’ tells a v different story. Starmer is more unpopular than Sunak after 1 year in the job. Sunak’s ratings were a record low and this was after 13 year of Tory rule and 4 PMs, including Truss whose premiership damaged the Tory’s polling beyond repair, which were in the toilet anyway.
I’ve spoken to friends who worked with MPs and the Tory-lot specifically did not see Reform as being an existential threat to them last year. Now the polls have Reform consistently above the Tories.
This is where we disagree. Immigration is the number 1 issue in this country that has fundamentally eroded trust in ‘the system’. Even under New Labour in the Blair/Brown years, concerns over immigration has been ignored when the economy was growing. It’s stalled and has exacerbated the feelings in the first place. Paul Embery touched on this, it’s v much a cultural issue because there are places up and down that no longer ‘feel’ English/British anymore.
Give the electorate what they want, which is lower immigration. Trust is restored and immigration ceases to be an issue. That was the case in 2019/20 when the Tories promised an Aussie points system and then loosened the definition of ‘high skilled’ workers to allow record numbers of immigration.
Then his MPs kick off, he U-turns and we’re back to square one…
Often a correlation between how voters feel financially (normally the main issue in any election) and issues like immigration. If they're doing well, economy is doing well etc then immigration slides down the list of priorities. The opposite then immigration rises in the list of priorities - something "simple" for voters to understand rather the complexities of the economy.If people see their own quality of life improve and that they get more in return for their taxes, they will care less about immigration and Farage will have fewer desperate people to exploit.
At the moment this is peak rip off Britain and vast swathes of the country remain either written off or forgotten about.
Bang on hereOften a correlation between how voters feel financially (normally the main issue in any election) and issues like immigration. If they're doing well, economy is doing well etc then immigration slides down the list of priorities. The opposite then immigration rises in the list of priorities - something "simple" for voters to understand rather the complexities of the economy.
Support for Reform may be primarily down to dissatisfaction with the main parties and potential voters holding them responsible for the various messes but come a General election they are going to have to offer a lot more substance than they offer now if they think they want to win - they took the "easy" votes last year but will have to work a lot harder to get enough votes to even be the 2nd biggest party, let alone become a Govt.
Often a correlation between how voters feel financially (normally the main issue in any election) and issues like immigration. If they're doing well, economy is doing well etc then immigration slides down the list of priorities. The opposite then immigration rises in the list of priorities - something "simple" for voters to understand rather the complexities of the economy.
Support for Reform may be primarily down to dissatisfaction with the main parties and potential voters holding them responsible for the various messes but come a General election they are going to have to offer a lot more substance than they offer now if they think they want to win - they took the "easy" votes last year but will have to work a lot harder to get enough votes to even be the 2nd biggest party, let alone become a Govt.
Yeah Reform voters yearn for the Corbyn.
There's always the 3rd option that Labour make a complete mess of it and much like the last election Reform could get in by default (particularly if the Tories can't reconnect with their former voters)The only amendment I’d make to that is the final point. There’s still plenty for Reform to go after as it stands because there seems to be comparatively little scrutiny over their ‘policy agenda’. Equally, Labour will need to take control of the narrative at some point to retain their voters.
Their councils will be under a lot of scrutiny to see how they perform. If they are no worse than others that's still a plus for them. If they can make local Govt work then national floating voters could look at them in a different light.Reform winning so many council seats might end up turning out to be the worst thing that could have happened to them
If people see their own quality of life improve and that they get more in return for their taxes, they will care less about immigration and Farage will have fewer desperate people to exploit.
At the moment this is peak rip off Britain and vast swathes of the country remain either written off or forgotten about.
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