Do you want to discuss boring politics? (14 Viewers)

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Even Obama’s approval ratings were persistently underwater, he was far from a universally loved politician. Must have been that Cheshire Cat grin of his.

I imagine the Venn diagram of Obama haters and those who haven’t heard of the Cheshire Cat would be pretty homogenous

 

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[tisza]

You’re v dismissive of the threat the Greens pose to Labour.

The battleground there is the 18-30 year olds who voted either Labour or Lib Dem in 2024. It's the ideology age bracket.

 

[shmmeee]

You’re v dismissive of the threat the Greens pose to Labour. It’s as if you haven’t learned from the rise of Reform at all. Do you think in 2020/21 that the tories felt Reform would get 15% of the vote by 2024? Absolutely not. I know this because a friend of mine worked for a Tory MP. They laughed off the threat and Reform may wipe them out.

2017 was the most 2 party election since the 1970s. With how fragmented the party political system is right now, it’s unlikely Labour keep their 2024 vote share of 35%, let alone improve it to the high 30s to 40% mark.

On Reform, people have been adjusting their ‘ceiling’ for Reform. First it was 15%, now it’s 35%. Which, isn’t insignificant because Labour just got 35% of the popular vote and have a stinking majority. Your seat totals snowball after you hit 30% in first past the post electoral systems.

What could help Labour, is that tactical voting. Lib Dem and Green voters could swing behind Reform to prevent Reform. That said, a lot of left wing voters are equally dissatisfied with this government so why would they keep a “Tory lite” party in government?

To add to this, Starmer and Reeves’ personal ratings are horrible. Farage is equally divisive but like Trump, people will vote ‘for change’ and whether that’s enough to win an election… it’s

A reduced Labour majority and/or Lab/LD coalition is wishful thinking. It’s not even 1 year into the parliament and it doesn’t get much better from here popularity wise.

Look, I joke about the lefties on here like BSB and FP wanting a Reform govt, but I don’t actually think they do.

It’s not wishful thinking, it’s a basic reading of the polls and what everyone who isn’t hopped up in Twitter thinks is the most likely outcome next election.

What’s wishful thinking is applying a load of protest votes a year into a government to a model for the next election.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Look, I joke about the lefties on here like BSB and FP wanting a Reform govt, but I don’t actually think they do.

It’s not wishful thinking, it’s a basic reading of the polls and what everyone who isn’t hopped up in Twitter thinks is the most likely outcome next election.

What’s wishful thinking is applying a load of protest votes a year into a government to a model for the next election.

Any party sneers at its base at its peril. My concern is seeing how little the party is doing with a colossal majority, it will do even less with a much reduced one.

 

[tisza]

If we have to spend nearly 200 billion a year in defence (as per new NATO commitment) let's not just shipit to American companies. If this 5% is going to be a thing then develop UK defence companies.