Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (46 Viewers)

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chiefdave

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
robbiekeane said:
Am I missing something, why aren’t we looking at positive cases as a % of tests? Why can’t I find this data anywhere? Surely that omits the effect of having significantly more tests being done now?
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They can't give that information without giving info on the number of people being tested every day. For some reason they haven't made that available since people started having problems getting tests.

What was Raab on about this morning on Sky saying only 7% of tests that come back positive are correct. Assume thats not actually true and there's some other point he was trying to make.
 
NorthernWisdom

NorthernWisdom

Well-Known Member
jimmyhillsfanclub said:
No argument there.

However, Whilst I don't agree on it being a "consumer" product, I have no issue with business paying for it. Why shouldn't they if it enables them to increase their productivity & profitability.
In theory at least, it could also claw back some revenue to help pay for the public & NHS testing
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That's the thing though, if it's not 100% accurate, so ends up shutting a business down or ruining consumer confidence as it causes a massive outbreak because people let their guard down, it just won't work anyway. Could be a massive disaster in that way. Crowds gathered for a rock concert at the NEC, all return negative tests, but a few people in there with it and passing it on, might not go well...
 
W

wingy

Well-Known Member
Would that potentially produce
David O'Day said:
which is why the iIbra system is not a goer.

If you use it on a 70k crowd you are looking at up to 2800 false results.
Click to expand...
Would that produce potential for 30 or so carrier's based on the prevailing rate among the community?
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
Im not a fan of sticking stuff on here without proper evidence/being able to back it up, so do take this with a pinch of salt/in the spirit it is being shared. It appears to be similar to what I think was SBD (or was it Pete’s) mate and BSB were saying regarding a vaccine. Interesting read none the less and if you try to keep a positive outlook like I do, maybe chink of light in this weeks dark days of news !

This was on the Wycombe massage board -

‘From my perspective, we are trying to suppress the virus over the winter knowing there is a very high chance of a vaccine over the next 6 months. Results of Phase III studies for both mRNA vaccines (Pfizer/Biontech and Moderna) are likely in November, and for the most advanced adenovirus vaccine (AstraZeneca/Oxford), perhaps December. All 3 vaccines have already shown a very strong antibody and T Cell response in Phase I/II, which points to a successful potential vaccine. What actual immunity the vaccine will provide though is the point of contention - hopefully we’ll know this by year’s end with the Phase III results. In my opinion, if the vaccine is safe (and doesn’t cause an infection augmentation, for example - which is almost certain not to happen), the worse case scenario is the patient can still be ‘infected’ but be either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, but can still pass on the virus. Best case, the vaccine prevents infection as a whole (no infection, cannot pass on). My best guess would be it’ll be somewhere in between. So, in English, if you can mass vaccinate, that would end this pandemic (in the region/country of mass vaccination). Probably annual vaccinations needed (like flu) in high risk individuals going forward.

So, I would expect a FDA/MHRA/EMA approval (or minimum an EUA - Emergency Use Authorisation) for one or more vaccines by December. Then vaccinate high risk (elderly, immune compromised etc) late 2020/early 2021. Then, dependent on manufacture and distribution coherence, full mass vaccination in the Spring.

So, the current agenda, whatever you think of it, to suppress does have an exit strategy. Until then, get used to any football on the TV, and wear a mask when you’re out (it will generally reduce asymptomatic spread to others, and there is growing evidence that although it won’t stop you getting coronavirus, it will reduce the amount of virus you are exposed to, what’s called the viral, and mean you are far more likely to have an asymptomatic or only mildly asymptomatic infection).’
 
fernandopartridge

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
CCFCSteve said:
Im not a fan of sticking stuff on here without proper evidence/being able to back it up, so do take this with a pinch of salt/in the spirit it is being shared. It appears to be similar to what I think was SBD (or was it Pete’s) mate and BSB were saying regarding a vaccine. Interesting read none the less and if you try to keep a positive outlook like I do, maybe chink of light in this weeks dark days of news !

This was on the Wycombe massage board -

‘From my perspective, we are trying to suppress the virus over the winter knowing there is a very high chance of a vaccine over the next 6 months. Results of Phase III studies for both mRNA vaccines (Pfizer/Biontech and Moderna) are likely in November, and for the most advanced adenovirus vaccine (AstraZeneca/Oxford), perhaps December. All 3 vaccines have already shown a very strong antibody and T Cell response in Phase I/II, which points to a successful potential vaccine. What actual immunity the vaccine will provide though is the point of contention - hopefully we’ll know this by year’s end with the Phase III results. In my opinion, if the vaccine is safe (and doesn’t cause an infection augmentation, for example - which is almost certain not to happen), the worse case scenario is the patient can still be ‘infected’ but be either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, but can still pass on the virus. Best case, the vaccine prevents infection as a whole (no infection, cannot pass on). My best guess would be it’ll be somewhere in between. So, in English, if you can mass vaccinate, that would end this pandemic (in the region/country of mass vaccination). Probably annual vaccinations needed (like flu) in high risk individuals going forward.

So, I would expect a FDA/MHRA/EMA approval (or minimum an EUA - Emergency Use Authorisation) for one or more vaccines by December. Then vaccinate high risk (elderly, immune compromised etc) late 2020/early 2021. Then, dependent on manufacture and distribution coherence, full mass vaccination in the Spring.

So, the current agenda, whatever you think of it, to suppress does have an exit strategy. Until then, get used to any football on the TV, and wear a mask when you’re out (it will generally reduce asymptomatic spread to others, and there is growing evidence that although it won’t stop you getting coronavirus, it will reduce the amount of virus you are exposed to, what’s called the viral, and mean you are far more likely to have an asymptomatic or only mildly asymptomatic infection).’
Click to expand...

I've posted a few times on here that there is a clear reason why the government is legislating to allow for covid / flu vaccines which do not need to have an MHRA license and this post supports it.
 
chiefdave

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
shmmeee said:
Starting to think the best option is a temporary massive increase in job seekers benefits (whatever they’re called this week) and let the chips fall where they may.
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As with so many things what the current situation has exposed is that our 'safety net' isn't fit for purpose. Its certainly not the easy life on benefits some sections of the media like to portray. Simply put even if you received the maximum level of universal credit and housing benefit (only available to renters) it is unlikely to cover the absolute essentials for most people.

Clearly something has got to give. We're now staring down the barrel of, to all intents and purposes, another 6 months of lockdown with Sunak insisting furlough will end in October.

The strong rumour now seems to be moving towards the French & German model to allow companies to retain employees with the government topping up wages to compensate for lost hours.
 
David O'Day

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
wingy said:
Would that potentially produce

Would that produce potential for 30 or so carrier's based on the prevailing rate among the community?
Click to expand...

No it could be 2800 false positives or the same in false negatives. This is why the iIbra system is not being considered for any mass testing scheme.
 
chiefdave

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
CCFCSteve said:
Im not a fan of sticking stuff on here without proper evidence/being able to back it up, so do take this with a pinch of salt/in the spirit it is being shared. It appears to be similar to what I think was SBD (or was it Pete’s) mate and BSB were saying regarding a vaccine. Interesting read none the less and if you try to keep a positive outlook like I do, maybe chink of light in this weeks dark days of news !

This was on the Wycombe massage board -

‘From my perspective, we are trying to suppress the virus over the winter knowing there is a very high chance of a vaccine over the next 6 months. Results of Phase III studies for both mRNA vaccines (Pfizer/Biontech and Moderna) are likely in November, and for the most advanced adenovirus vaccine (AstraZeneca/Oxford), perhaps December. All 3 vaccines have already shown a very strong antibody and T Cell response in Phase I/II, which points to a successful potential vaccine. What actual immunity the vaccine will provide though is the point of contention - hopefully we’ll know this by year’s end with the Phase III results. In my opinion, if the vaccine is safe (and doesn’t cause an infection augmentation, for example - which is almost certain not to happen), the worse case scenario is the patient can still be ‘infected’ but be either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, but can still pass on the virus. Best case, the vaccine prevents infection as a whole (no infection, cannot pass on). My best guess would be it’ll be somewhere in between. So, in English, if you can mass vaccinate, that would end this pandemic (in the region/country of mass vaccination). Probably annual vaccinations needed (like flu) in high risk individuals going forward.

So, I would expect a FDA/MHRA/EMA approval (or minimum an EUA - Emergency Use Authorisation) for one or more vaccines by December. Then vaccinate high risk (elderly, immune compromised etc) late 2020/early 2021. Then, dependent on manufacture and distribution coherence, full mass vaccination in the Spring.

So, the current agenda, whatever you think of it, to suppress does have an exit strategy. Until then, get used to any football on the TV, and wear a mask when you’re out (it will generally reduce asymptomatic spread to others, and there is growing evidence that although it won’t stop you getting coronavirus, it will reduce the amount of virus you are exposed to, what’s called the viral, and mean you are far more likely to have an asymptomatic or only mildly asymptomatic infection).’
Click to expand...
We don't hear a lot about research into treatment as opposed to vaccine but I would hope that is also taking place and being sufficiently funded. If, as seems increasingly likely, a vaccine that while not preventing you getting covid can lessen the impact can be combined with improvements in treatment then thats a very big positive.

Even more so if simple and affordable home testing can be developed that provides you with a near instant result.
 
fernandopartridge

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
CCFCSteve said:
Sorry, missed the posts Fernando. What’s the reasoning ?
Click to expand...

TBF i hadn't seen this whole wrap but it's all here:

www.gov.uk

Consultation document: changes to Human Medicine Regulations to support the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines

www.gov.uk www.gov.uk

From January 2021, the UK’s licensing authority will have new powers to license all medicines, including vaccines. However, if there is a compelling case, on public health grounds, for using a vaccine before it is given a product licence, given the nature of the threat we face, the JCVI may take the very unusual step of advising the UK government to use a tested, unlicensed vaccine against COVID-19, and we need to make sure that the right legislative measures are in place to deal with that scenario.
Click to expand...
 
jimmyhillsfanclub

jimmyhillsfanclub

Well-Known Member
"unlicensed vaccine against COVID-19 "

bill gates innit....its his grand revenge taken against all the users of unlicenced windows...20+ years in the making...

....do vaccines crash?.....lets hope the blue screen of death isn't literal.:D
 
NorthernWisdom

NorthernWisdom

Well-Known Member
fernandopartridge said:
It shifts liability from the manufacturer if anything goes wrong. I think liability potentially shifts to the MHRA but not sure completely.
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But ultimately, then, isn't shortcutting the safety procedures, just shortcutting responsibility?

If so, I can live with that in exceptional times. Just feel uncomfortable when I see changes to a system that, well... works better than most, tbf. We shouldn't compromise our standards, even now.
 
fernandopartridge

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
Ah but at least the hospital admissions are stable

England daily admissions since 30 Aug
21/09/2020​
275​
20/09/2020​
237​
19/09/2020​
204​
18/09/2020​
205​
17/09/2020​
199​
16/09/2020​
183​
15/09/2020​
194​
14/09/2020​
172​
13/09/2020​
153​
12/09/2020​
143​
11/09/2020​
135​
10/09/2020​
143​
09/09/2020​
136​
08/09/2020​
99​
07/09/2020​
84​
06/09/2020​
85​
05/09/2020​
94​
04/09/2020​
67​
03/09/2020​
69​
02/09/2020​
79​
01/09/2020​
58​
31/08/2020​
52​
30/08/2020​
38​
 
Sky Blue Pete

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
fernandopartridge said:
Ah but at least the hospital admissions are stable

England daily admissions since 30 Aug
21/09/2020​
275​
20/09/2020​
237​
19/09/2020​
204​
18/09/2020​
205​
17/09/2020​
199​
16/09/2020​
183​
15/09/2020​
194​
14/09/2020​
172​
13/09/2020​
153​
12/09/2020​
143​
11/09/2020​
135​
10/09/2020​
143​
09/09/2020​
136​
08/09/2020​
99​
07/09/2020​
84​
06/09/2020​
85​
05/09/2020​
94​
04/09/2020​
67​
03/09/2020​
69​
02/09/2020​
79​
01/09/2020​
58​
31/08/2020​
52​
30/08/2020​
38​
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Doubling every 10 days or so
 
skybluetony176

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
Today’s numbers are worrying. Only two days ago Whitty and Valance were telling us that at the current rates numbers were doubling every 7 days and presenting modelling on what that means going forward if we don’t get control of things. Hopefully today is a blip because if not we’re already down to doubling every 4 days and the worst case scenario modelling is looking like best case. Gulp.
 
K

Kieranp96

Well-Known Member
Virus is already past control, no way we can get it under control until we have a lock down of some sort, deaths are starting to rise here aswell as Spain and France and 6k cases today is not great, from what they predicted yesterday looks like we're just ahead of the predictions.
 
covmark

covmark

Well-Known Member
Kieranp96 said:
Virus is already past control, no way we can get it under control until we have a lock down of some sort, deaths are starting to rise here aswell as Spain and France and 6k cases today is not great, from what they predicted yesterday looks like we're just ahead of the predictions.
Click to expand...
Oh well. I'll keep working. My wife will keep working and my kids will keep going to school. Good luck to us all being governed by these fucking morons!

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk
 
David O'Day

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
Kieranp96 said:
Virus is already past control, no way we can get it under control until we have a lock down of some sort, deaths are starting to rise here aswell as Spain and France and 6k cases today is not great, from what they predicted yesterday looks like we're just ahead of the predictions.
Click to expand...

Pretty much but the government do not want to pay the money they will need to support businesses and jobs.
 
fernandopartridge

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
skybluetony176 said:
Today’s numbers are worrying. Only two days ago Whitty and Valance were telling us that at the current rates numbers were doubling every 7 days and presenting modelling on what that means going forward if we don’t get control of things. Hopefully today is a blip because if not we’re already down to doubling every 4 days and the worst case scenario modelling is looking like best case. Gulp.
Click to expand...
Yeah, some of it might be just (I hope) the backlog of tests being processed
 
SBAndy

SBAndy

Well-Known Member
Other half has been up coughing all night. Now I’m 95% confident she just has a cough/cold/other illness but probably better to be safe about it. Gov portal for testing just says “we are very busy, please try again later”. Is that how it’s tended to be when others have tried to book?
 
David O'Day

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
SBAndy said:
Other half has been up coughing all night. Now I’m 95% confident she just has a cough/cold/other illness but probably better to be safe about it. Gov portal for testing just says “we are very busy, please try again later”. Is that how it’s tended to be when others have tried to book?
Click to expand...

Yep, they say the trick is to go and book at 8pm as that's when the next batch of new slots gets uploaded
 
S

skybluesam66

Well-Known Member
SBAndy said:
Other half has been up coughing all night. Now I’m 95% confident she just has a cough/cold/other illness but probably better to be safe about it. Gov portal for testing just says “we are very busy, please try again later”. Is that how it’s tended to be when others have tried to book?
Click to expand...
if it is a productive cough it is probably not covid. If it is on the chest not the throat and not productive, it may be
 
clint van damme

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
SBAndy said:
Other half has been up coughing all night. Now I’m 95% confident she just has a cough/cold/other illness but probably better to be safe about it. Gov portal for testing just says “we are very busy, please try again later”. Is that how it’s tended to be when others have tried to book?
Click to expand...

it seems so. My missus gave up last week but whatever she had has cleared up so I think it was just a bug but they've got no chance of getting on top of it if people can't find out one way or another.
 
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