David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Also the current restrictions are not sustainable for health, behavioral or economic reasons. People are already starting to crack.
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Also the current restrictions are not sustainable for health, behavioral or economic reasons. People are already starting to crack.
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Not really - it seems to be generally accepted that care home deaths would likely double the hospital confirmed deaths.
More scaremongering, plucking numbers out of the air.
So people who die in a care home can't be put down as COVID as a reason?Not really - it seems to be generally accepted that care home deaths would likely double the hospital confirmed deaths.
Piers Morgan has been the biggest twat going in this pandemic, with all his scaremongering he should be ashamedNot really - it seems to be generally accepted that care home deaths would likely double the hospital confirmed deaths.
Man calling out government should be ashamed.... standard.Piers Morgan has been the biggest twat going in this pandemic, with all his scaremongering he should be ashamed
So people who die in a care home can't be put down as COVID as a reason?
Are Germany using exactly the same reporting and stats as us in terms of what is a COVID death? (Genuine question and not sarcasm!)
Not really down to care home death not being recorded correctly, its the lag (which is weeks) in the deaths being registered and the ONS publishing the figures.So people who die in a care home can't be put down as COVID as a reason?
Are Germany using exactly the same reporting and stats as us in terms of what is a COVID death? (Genuine question and not sarcasm!)
I don’t know about other countries - may very much depend on how/where they test/trace/track. We as a country have not done adequte testing or tracking of the disease, especially in care homes.
It’s not scaremongering is it to suggest that a virus that has killed over 20K in hospital alone wouldn’t have a similarly destructive effect on places filled with vulnerable and at risk people with little or no access to any kind of medical care.
Not really down to care home death not being recorded correctly, its the lag (which is weeks) in the deaths being registered and the ONS publishing the figures.
The FT aren't plucking figures out of thin air, they're looking at the existing published data and then using that to model the numbers for the more recent period where the data is not yet available. The person behind this, Chris Giles, has said several times on twitter that they are deliberately being conservative with their modelling to avoid panicking people with a large number that turns out to be too high.
There is a methodology behind it which is explained here:
UK coronavirus deaths more than double official figure, according to FT study | Free to read
or a shorter explanation in this thread:
This is, IMO, the best option. Instead of looking at what has been recorded as coronavirus deaths look at excess mortality.The thing is, how can we compare with Germany for example if they are using different reporting?
This is, IMO, the best option. Instead of looking at what has been recorded as coronavirus deaths look at excess mortality.
Agreed.This is, IMO, the best option. Instead of looking at what has been recorded as coronavirus deaths look at excess mortality.
On an apolitical note, I can kind of understand why you might not publish it so people don't start enacting it before the actual date.
I can also see why you might want to put it out there, however, so that you can get feedback on how people respond to the ideas.
Personally... I'd have thought the best thing is to see how any lifting of restraints goes in places like Italy before jumping ourselves. If it goes well, we follow. if badly...
The thing is that stats can easily be manipulated.
For example if Germany (I don't know how they are reporting) are only reporting people who have been confirmed to die of Corona and tested as dead but they are testing every Tom, Dick and Harry then their death rate will be low and recovery high. For example if they tested everybody who had a slight cold symptom whereas if we only tested if they were on life support in hospital then the figures will be massively different on recovert.
If you compare death rate versus ‘tested’ and death rate versus ‘population size’ - we are shit in every regard. It’s not about a manipulation of statistics (although I understand your point) it’s the fact that in any measure we’ve totally fucked it... and as yet there doesn’t appear to be any plan of how to get on top of it.
Coming out of lockdown shouldn’t even be an agenda item right now.
This is, IMO, the best option. Instead of looking at what has been recorded as coronavirus deaths look at excess mortality.
Hate to say this but he's been right a lot.Piers Morgan has been the biggest twat going in this pandemic, with all his scaremongering he should be ashamed
New Zealand showing the way Coronavirus 'currently eliminated' in New Zealand locked down before a single death had occurred, have kept overall cases in the thousands rather the the tens or hundreds of thousands and deaths in hundreds rather than the tens of thousands. They’re now going to get the economy moving again on a controlled level and before most economies in the world. Socialism wins again. No wonder it’s one of the happiest countries in the world. Go on Jacinda gal.
Yes they are but they aren't included in the figure being announced daily by the government. You have to get that data from the ONS figures which are published weekly but deaths can not show on there for weeks due to the way the system of registering deaths work. Normally its not an issue as people are only looking at the data for longer term trends, not looking for daily updates.Aren't people in carehomes being certified as dying of COVID at all? Is it assuming every care home death is COVID and saying they haven't been counted?
Yes they are but they aren't included in the figure being announced daily by the government. You have to get that data from the ONS figures which are published weekly but deaths can not show on there for weeks due to the way the system of registering deaths work. Normally its not an issue as people are only looking at the data for longer term trends, not looking for daily updates.
There's two issues. The figure the government are updating daily isn't accurate, it is only hospital deaths. All evidence points to the true figure being far higher.
Then you have the issue with consistency of data between countries. Thats why when you want to compare countries you're best off looking at the difference between the expected number of deaths for this time of year and the actual number of deaths. Doesn't matter what country your in, if you're dead that's it and you count as 1 person on the figures.
They did to non residents back in March and even then anyone coming in had to go into quarantine for a period. We only just announced quarantine of people arriving into the country over the weekend if you want a comparison. Not even sure when it’s going to be implemented but you’re able to land in the UK show your passport and step straight onto public transport, go food shopping and return to work if you can’t work from home all on the same day.Probably would as well.
have they locked down the borders as well? Pointless them getting rid and then a plane with somebody who has it comes in and sets it off again.
They did to non residents back in March and even then anyone coming in had to go into quarantine for a period. We only just announced quarantine of people arriving into the country over the weekend if you want a comparison. Not even sure when it’s going to be implemented but you’re able to land in the UK show your passport and step straight onto public transport, go food shopping and return to work if you can’t work from home all on the same day.
Yes they are but they aren't included in the figure being announced daily by the government. You have to get that data from the ONS figures which are published weekly but deaths can not show on there for weeks due to the way the system of registering deaths work. Normally its not an issue as people are only looking at the data for longer term trends, not looking for daily updates.
There's two issues. The figure the government are updating daily isn't accurate, it is only hospital deaths. All evidence points to the true figure being far higher.
Then you have the issue with consistency of data between countries. Thats why when you want to compare countries you're best off looking at the difference between the expected number of deaths for this time of year and the actual number of deaths. Doesn't matter what country your in, if you're dead that's it and you count as 1 person on the figures.
They say it's only hospital deaths though. They are not trying to say it is all covid-19 related deaths. For the data they say it is it is 100 percent accurate. It's published and advertised as hospital deaths registered within a 24 hour period. It is not their fault people dead it as something else.
The expected deaths is not a great indicator either as there seems to be a lot of people such as those with mild heart attacks and strokes that are presenting at hospital later than they normally would and are now presenting too late at hospital.
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Pretty much. Also not all out of hospital deaths listed as covid-19 will have been tested. Has anyone looked at the standard flu deaths and other respiratory illness deaths out of hospital to see if they have decreased which could indicate anything with a cough is being listed as covid-19?Surely if there's a delay with registering deaths then in a few weeks they will be higher as they have just been registered?
This is the thing, it's pointless comparing to other countries and worrying about it.
Which is why they are now repeatedly telling people to go to hospital if neededThat's the thing, if people aren't getting usual treatment then deaths will go up away from Corona too.
I wonder if suicides have gone up as well through all of this? I would bet they have
New Zealand closed their borders on 19th March except for returning citizens. Then on 10th April they brought in compulsory 14 day quarantine in a government facility.Probably would as well.
have they locked down the borders as well? Pointless them getting rid and then a plane with somebody who has it comes in and sets it off again.
Suicides is also a good point which would be interesting to seeThat's the thing, if people aren't getting usual treatment then deaths will go up away from Corona too.
I wonder if suicides have gone up as well through all of this? I would bet they have
Piers Morgan has been the biggest twat going in this pandemic, with all his scaremongering he should be ashamed
Which is why they are now repeatedly telling people to go to hospital if needed
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I think you’re less likely to have it if you arrive now than if you were already here. We are the place that’s riddled with it, despite having a head start on most of the world. Certainly Europe. We’ve fooked it big time. We were winning 5-0 at halftime and ended up 5-6 losers.Yep that makes sense, it has been pointless us all staying at home when somebody can fly in from somewhere that is riddled with it and just go and walk about the shops anyway.
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