fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
As I said before, the government's latest plan is to blame the variant
Anyone can see that it has a part to play but the main reason is a libertarian leader who doesn’t like making decisions that are unpopular.As I said before, the government's latest plan is to blame the variant
We had a cruise round the med booked for may, we did book it early last year but cant see it happening and i doubt i would go anyway.
I guessing its gonna be costa del back garden for us.....
so the caveats are that they're working with very small samples sizes, it's kind of too early to tell and so they have wide confidence intervals, but I'm afraid the preliminary number they're reporting is a 30% increase in mortality. The "point three" comes in if the infection mortality rate (IFR) is around 1%, which I understand it is for 60 year olds, i.e. The old variants had IFR 1% and the new variant of concern has IFR 1.3% for that age group. The increase in mortality seems to be roughly consistent across ages.
No Steve. There isn’t a conspiracy by several university departments and Public Health England to keep lockdown.
Jesus H Christ. I get people are sick of it, but try and keep on planet Earth.
We had our honeymoon booked for July in Central Europe, I have seen enough to say we won’t be allowed abroad or even if we are it’ll be a huge faff.
Im not saying it’s a conspiracy at all Shmmeee. I’m saying it helps re-enforce the message for people to stay at home and also puts some of the Tories who are pushing for end of lockdown back in their box for time being
If you read my post again I was saying scientists/PHE are they’re damned if they do, damned it the don’t release info on limited data. I do however think they should be careful though as if data proves to be incorrect people lose faith and mistrust leads to people ignoring advice
Ps for clarity I personally wouldn’t be even consider reducing lockdown restrictions until March and even then it is totally dependent on vaccine roll out/case numbers/hospital capacity
Spain cases are soaring and others will no doubt follow as the new variant takes hold so looks like it’s doubtful
Think the issue is more how the data is presented. We know that a lot of people don't look any further than soundbites and we live in a world where things are reported on instantly. So when you have Johnson opening the briefing with:The scientists/modellers release initial findings/commentary and although I wasn’t happy with the above, they can’t really win. You withhold that info and it’s found to be correct and they’d be uproar, you release it now and it’s scaremongering.
That's immediately all over social media and being reported on by news services worldwide, I've seen friends in Canada and Australia posting alarming articles based on Johnson's opening comments.I must tell you this afternoon that we have been informed today that, in addition to spreading more quickly, it also now appears that there is some evidence that the new variant – the variant that was first identified in London and the South East – may be associated with a higher degree of mortality
That puts things in a very different light to Johnsons opening statement. Even when Vallance expanded on the potential for the new variant to be worse he was carful to stress the limitations of the data.I do want to say a word about severity and mortality. When we look at data from hospitals, so patients who are in hospital with the virus, the outcomes for those with the original virus or the new variant look the same. So there’s no real evidence of an increase in mortality for those in hospital.
Its the same as when they said the new variant was 'up to 70%' more infectious. The up to part was quickly forgotten and it became 70%. Since then the number has dropped and now could be as low as 30%. Obviously still bad news but nowhere near as bad as it was first reported.However, when data are looked at, in terms of those who’ve been tested positive, so anyone who’s tested positive, there is evidence that there’s an increased risk for those who have the new variant compared to the old virus. Now that evidence is not yet strong. It’s a series of different bits of information that come together to support that. And I want to put it into context as to what it might mean, but stressing that these data currently uncertain, and we don’t have a very good estimate of the precise nature or indeed, whether it is overall increased, but it looks like it is. And I want to give some context.
I did wonder why Vallance used the example of a Sixty year old man.If the variant adds 0.7 to r does that mean without it the r rate is currently 0.1-0.3???
Hats off to everyone at Quinton Park Surgery. Got the vaccination process running like a dream.
Dropped the Old Man off and he was in, jabbed, given his vaccine card and walking next door to the Church within 5 minutes.
Sat out the 15 mins waiting time in the Church and was straight back out and into the car.
I tell you what if you’re feeling down, go and sit outside one of the vaccination centres and see how many happy and relieved people are leaving even if it just the first dose.
Congratulations. Good luck for the future.First two bookings for our new venture. Please dm me if you want details of the house and location in Cornwall. The website is up the thread. Hope you’re feeling much better soon great expectations
Kenneth Branagh To Play British PM Boris Johnson In Sky Drama ‘This Sceptred Isle’
Henry V star Kenneth Branagh is to play British Prime Minister in Sky drama This Sceptred Isle. The project first emerged as part of a deal between The Trip director Michael Winterbottom and Fremantle’s Passenger, run by True Detective producer Richard Brown. Sky Atlantic has now boarded the...deadline.com
Its chair, Dr Chaand Nagpaul, told the BBC there were "growing concerns" that the vaccine could become less effective with doses 12 weeks apart.
Responding to the criticism, Prof Van-Tam said: "What none of these (who ask reasonable questions) will tell me is: who on the at-risk list should suffer slower access to their first dose so that someone else who's already had one dose (and therefore most of the protection) can get a second?"
Van Tam is far too heavily influenced by politiciansCovid: Vaccinated people may spread virus, says Van-Tam
England's deputy chief medical officer urges those who have had the jab to stick to lockdown rules.www.bbc.co.uk
An interesting (and mildly concerning) quote from the above article:
For the sake of a few weeks, why the fuck shouldn’t the lower ‘at-risk’ people have slower access to the vaccine? I’ve been concerned about this for a while, as I know others have. My gran had her first vaccine yesterday which was the Pfizer one and her next appointment is in April. Why play fast and loose when Biontech came out and said “don’t stretch the vaccine timetable, we haven’t done any testing on what you intend to do”? Just fucking take our time if it means doing it right, surely. What if the initial dose ‘wears off’ after 6-8 weeks, that’s a fucking timebomb waiting to happen.
Van Tam is far too heavily influenced by politicians
Depending on the speed of the roll out I wouldn’t be surprised if once over 70s (possibly over 60s) have been vaccinated they started pushing more second jabs for older age/higher risk groups. I certainly wouldn’t have an issue waitingAn interesting (and mildly concerning) quote from the above article:Covid: Vaccinated people may spread virus, says Van-Tam
England's deputy chief medical officer urges those who have had the jab to stick to lockdown rules.www.bbc.co.uk
For the sake of a few weeks, why the fuck shouldn’t the lower ‘at-risk’ people have slower access to the vaccine? I’ve been concerned about this for a while, as I know others have. My gran had her first vaccine yesterday which was the Pfizer one and her next appointment is in April. Why play fast and loose when Biontech came out and said “don’t stretch the vaccine timetable, we haven’t done any testing on what you intend to do”? Just fucking take our time if it means doing it right, surely. What if the initial dose ‘wears off’ after 6-8 weeks, that’s a fucking timebomb waiting to happen.
That’s great isn’t it
That's my bigger hope long term, just make it like any other common cold virus.Also talk of a nasal spray that is to soon go on sale which can allegedly reduce the risk of Covid-19 being spread. A second spray is also being looked at which early results are claiming to show 99.9% effectiveness. I’ll take both claims with a pinch of salt, however I am happy that in addition to the vaccine to prevent/minimise the chance of catching the virus, there is now some talk of an easy to acquire cure for those who have already been infected.
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