Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (19 Viewers)

shmmeee · Oct 30, 2020

Kieranp96 said:
Who said do nothing? If you hadn't noticed more and more places are going into t3 lock down.

Watch that Independent SAGE presentation. Areas that have been in Tier 3 have shown no slowdown in spread. The tier system is essentially doing nothing. If you think about it people travel from Cov to London, Birmingham, Warwickshire, Northamptonshire for work, there’s no way you can have effective local measures really.

It seems it’s got to be short sharp shocks. We need to have a plan for when we need a 2/3 week lockdown and be ready to go. You can’t half arse this thing.

And for gods sake we need a working track and trace program. It’s criminal we’re still failing on that.

Ian1779 · Oct 30, 2020

chiefdave · Oct 30, 2020

Why is everything in the papers days before the government announce it, no way to run the country.

Ian1779 · Oct 30, 2020

It’s pointless not closing schools. That said a lot of parents will pull kids out of school if it happens.

chiefdave · Oct 30, 2020

Kieranp96 said:
I think we're past protecting it.

We're getting close but we desperately need to avoid reaching that tipping point where the NHS is overwhelmed. Deaths would go through the roof if that happened. Nightingale hospitals will be little use when there's no staff to run them.

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Oct 30, 2020

chiefdave said:
Why is everything in the papers days before the government announce it, no way to run the country.

It's not but they're obsessed with public perception and being popular. Although their response to the kid's meals is an odd aberration.

wingy · Oct 30, 2020

shmmeee said:
Watch that Independent SAGE presentation. Areas that have been in Tier 3 have shown no slowdown in spread. The tier system is essentially doing nothing. If you think about it people travel from Cov to London, Birmingham, Warwickshire, Northamptonshire for work, there’s no way you can have effective local measures really.

It seems it’s got to be short sharp shocks. We need to have a plan for when we need a 2/3 week lockdown and be ready to go. You can’t half arse this thing.

And for gods sake we need a working track and trace program. It’s criminal we’re still failing on that.

Half terms and holidays the natural points to do it .
No If's or buts should have been programmed in.

chiefdave · Oct 30, 2020

wingy said:
Half terms and holidays the natural points to do it .
No If's or buts should have been programmed in.

It was half term this week wasn't it? Nothing could be more ridiculous than starting a national lockdown the day after the school holidays end, not to mention right as the furlough scheme ends, and insisting everyone go back to school.

Saddlebrains · Oct 30, 2020

Knew he would do it soon as others did.

Doesnt have the bollocks to do it himself, follower

wingy · Oct 30, 2020

They're fucking shite .

Sky Blue Pete · Oct 30, 2020

Ian1779 said:

Sorry but fuckin idiot. Why now? 2 weeks too late again!!!!

skybluetony176 · Oct 30, 2020

Sky Blue Pete said:
Sorry but fuckin idiot. Why now? 2 weeks too late again!!!!

Think it longer than that really. I think it’s at least 4 weeks ago SAGE suggested the circuit breaker.

Sky Blue Pete · Oct 30, 2020

skybluetony176 said:
Think it longer than that really. I think it’s at least 4 weeks ago SAGE suggested the circuit breaker.

Once again it’s verging on criminal.

Kieranp96 · Oct 30, 2020

shmmeee said:
Watch that Independent SAGE presentation. Areas that have been in Tier 3 have shown no slowdown in spread. The tier system is essentially doing nothing. If you think about it people travel from Cov to London, Birmingham, Warwickshire, Northamptonshire for work, there’s no way you can have effective local measures really.

It seems it’s got to be short sharp shocks. We need to have a plan for when we need a 2/3 week lockdown and be ready to go. You can’t half arse this thing.

And for gods sake we need a working track and trace program. It’s criminal we’re still failing on that.

Thats OK the goverment have leaked there intentions again, lock down 2.0 here we come, glad it doesn't effect me I work from and barley leave, only downside is Iver seen my grandparents 3x since Feb, missed both birthdays missed many family meals but considering there both going into their 80s I don't mind.

SBAndy · Oct 30, 2020

Absolutely shameful approach, lacking any type of joined up thinking, from a clown that has blundered his way through his entire working career. I’m honestly fucking sick of this now. As many have mentioned, a number of mild creative plans see us swerve this but the c**t won’t take any form of decisive action until absolutely forced to. We will again be the worst affected both mortality-wise and economically. I can almost guarantee it.

chiefdave · Oct 30, 2020

skybluetony176 said:
Think it longer than that really. I think it’s at least 4 weeks ago SAGE suggested the circuit breaker.

There's minutes from a SAGE meeting on 21st September where they formally suggested it. Although that was far from the first time it was put forward by the experts, it was being said for weeks before that with it being repeatedly said the longer we left it the less impact it would have.

What do they say?
The minutes of the Sage meeting on 21 September show the experts wanted a dramatic increase in restrictions across the country to check the alarming rise in infections, warning at that point that the number of cases was doubling every seven days and hospitalisations had begun to increase. A package of measures was needed, they said, to include:
a “circuit-breaker” lockdown of a couple of weeks.
advice to work from home for all who could.
a ban on household mixing in homes.
closure of all bars, cafes, restaurants, indoor gyms and personal services such as hairdressers.
all university and college teaching to be online.

What did the UK actually do?
None of the above – except for the advice on working at home.

Sage documents show how scientists felt sidelined by economic considerations

Timing of the release, just after the PM’s three-tier Covid plan, highlights experts’ disquiet

www.theguardian.com

Brighton Sky Blue · Oct 30, 2020

wingy said:
Half terms and holidays the natural points to do it .
No If's or buts should have been programmed in.

Northern Ireland got it spot on and published the evidence behind it when asked

wingy · Oct 31, 2020

skybluetony176 said:
Think it longer than that really. I think it’s at least 4 weeks ago SAGE suggested the circuit breaker.

More like six tony then three weeks deciding/ pontificating cabinet arguing to announce the tiered system .
Then a week or two arguing with mayor's, utterly shambolic.

Skybluefaz · Oct 31, 2020

Johnson is ridiculous, do it when the fucking schools are off and when the scientists tell you. Too slow again.

skyblueusername · Oct 31, 2020

chiefdave said:
It was half term this week wasn't it? Nothing could be more ridiculous than starting a national lockdown the day after the school holidays end, not to mention right as the furlough scheme ends, and insisting everyone go back to school.

I'm not going back to school, i hated it when i had to attend in the 70/80's.

CCFCSteve · Oct 31, 2020

I was going to send this a couple of days ago but held off and even though I appreciate I’m now even less on the right side of the latest scientific advice, I thought I’d still post it...

I’ve seen plenty on here saying, locked down again, have regular lockdowns, just add extra weeks onto school hols etc etc but none fully take into account the ramifications of this ie if the schools close parents or more worryingly grandparents having to stay home to look after the kids (in particular key workers), the impact on businesses during lockdowns (whatever scheme is offered it won’t be enough for many to survive so huge redundancies on way), the mental health impacts of the lockdowns etc etc or the most importantly the fact that a significant proportion of the public are no longer following the measures !!!

I’m all for people hammering the government for things like track and trace, Hancocks general shitness etc but also there has got to be some realism

People keep part quoting Sage who ‘recommended’ a circuit break, without then acknowledging that, they would need more than one and also these would have negative impacts elsewhere and have a disproportionate effect on the poorest in society, as did WHO (and young as I’ve mentioned before). Nor recognising that they may only put the virus back for 3-4 weeks, the fact that people with far more serious illnesses have either avoided hospitals or GPs (26m lost appts apparently), or missed screenings in the last lockdown. Probably a sweeping generalisation but I’m guessing most people calling for lockdowns like it’s a relatively simple solution tick at least a couple of the following boxes - probably in a relationship, possibly got kids, don’t go out/socialise as much, got a relatively safe jobs, live in a house (not for example a one bed flat) and are probably higher risk. What about those that don’t tick any/as many of those boxes ?

I’m not saying lockdowns won’t help, of course they would and I’m all for using them as a tool to help manage NHS capacity but throughout Europe most countries are taking very similar approaches (we’re not an outlier)

I personally would’ve liked to have seen a big push on ensuring people follow self isolation measures (10% doing so means the actual track and trace numbers are pretty irrelevant) and also a massive push to get people healthier. I read that only over 65s maintained or improved their level of exercise/fitness during the first wave. So basically loads on furlough, saving time with no work/commuting (albeit many looking after kids) etc yet, didn’t manage to even do the same exercise as before, when the weather was good and when it’s known to help the fight against the virus...WTF ?!! For all the governments faults (there’s many), people have got to start taking some personal responsibility in all this and I don’t think following self isolation rules when you’ve got/likely to have the virus and upping exercise (although now far trickier with shit weather) is too much to ask !

Added bit - The scientific ‘evidence’ is all over the place on this at the moment...where the transmissions are happening (hospitality or not ??), how many are currently being infected (from c30k per day to 90k per day - R rate from 1.1-1.3 to 1.6+ - bit of a difference !!!!), whether you are likely to be reinfected, fatality rates (from 0.2 to 1%), and how many have had it (anywhere between 7% and 30%+ - the use antibodies to estimate this appears crazy). It’s hard to know what to believe anymore and all of the above have massive implications on whats the best strategy to use.

RANT OVER - I go large and not often on here these days. No offence to any of those supporting lockdowns by the way, I get it, 100%, especially when you’re trying to protect loved ones, just trying to show there’s another side to the coin and it’s not a straight forward a call as people suggest

Ps what a win last night...let’s hope at least football continues in lockdown. PUSB x

Brighton Sky Blue · Oct 31, 2020

CCFCSteve said:
I was going to send this a couple of days ago but held off and even though I appreciate I’m now even less on the right side of the latest scientific advice, I thought I’d still post it...

I’ve seen plenty on here saying, locked down again, have regular lockdowns, just add extra weeks onto school hols etc etc but none fully take into account the ramifications of this ie if the schools close parents or more worryingly grandparents having to stay home to look after the kids (in particular key workers), the impact on businesses during lockdowns (whatever scheme is offered it won’t be enough for many to survive so huge redundancies on way), the mental health impacts of the lockdowns etc etc or the most importantly the fact that a significant proportion of the public are no longer following the measures !!!

I’m all for people hammering the government for things like track and trace, Hancocks general shitness etc but also there has got to be some realism

People keep part quoting Sage who ‘recommended’ a circuit break, without then acknowledging that, they would need more than one and also these would have negative impacts elsewhere and have a disproportionate effect on the poorest in society, as did WHO (and young as I’ve mentioned before). Nor recognising that they may only put the virus back for 3-4 weeks, the fact that people with far more serious illnesses have either avoided hospitals or GPs (26m lost appts apparently), or missed screenings in the last lockdown. Probably a sweeping generalisation but I’m guessing most people calling for lockdowns like it’s a relatively simple solution tick at least a couple of the following boxes - probably in a relationship, possibly got kids, don’t go out/socialise as much, got a relatively safe jobs, live in a house (not for example a one bed flat) and are probably higher risk. What about those that don’t tick any/as many of those boxes ?

I’m not saying lockdowns won’t help, of course they would and I’m all for using them as a tool to help manage NHS capacity but throughout Europe most countries are taking very similar approaches (we’re not an outlier)

I personally would’ve liked to have seen a big push on ensuring people follow self isolation measures (10% doing so means the actual track and trace numbers are pretty irrelevant) and also a massive push to get people healthier. I read that only over 65s maintained or improved their level of exercise/fitness during the first wave. So basically loads on furlough, saving time with no work/commuting (albeit many looking after kids) etc yet, didn’t manage to even do the same exercise as before, when the weather was good and when it’s known to help the fight against the virus...WTF ?!! For all the governments faults (there’s many), people have got to start taking some personal responsibility in all this and I don’t think following self isolation rules when you’ve got/likely to have the virus and upping exercise (although now far trickier with shit weather) is too much to ask !

Added bit - The scientific ‘evidence’ is all over the place on this at the moment...where the transmissions are happening (hospitality or not ??), how many are currently being infected (from c30k per day to 90k per day - R rate from 1.1-1.3 to 1.6+ - bit of a difference !!!!), whether you are likely to be reinfected, fatality rates (from 0.2 to 1%), and how many have had it (anywhere between 7% and 30%+ - the use antibodies to estimate this appears crazy). It’s hard to know what to believe anymore and all of the above have massive implications on whats the best strategy to use.

RANT OVER - I go large and not often on here these days. No offence to any of those supporting lockdowns by the way, I get it, 100%, especially when you’re trying to protect loved ones, just trying to show there’s another side to the coin and it’s not a straight forward a call as people suggest

Ps what a win last night...let’s hope at least football continues in lockdown. PUSB x

I think it’s clear Steve that more than most I want nothing more than just to teach properly and to have some kind of normality. My mental health after a term of remote teaching was shot and teaching with all these COVID restraints that clearly haven’t worked made it worse. So if we had to go back to remote I’d hate it. However if it really were just for 3 weeks, I could tolerate it and accept that it’s completely supported by the evidence. No it wouldn’t remove the virus from circulation but it would again put the squeeze on the case curve.

I want it fucking over more than anyone-but being impatient isn’t going to turn out well.

Sky Blue Pete · Oct 31, 2020

Brighton Sky Blue said:
I think it’s clear Steve that more than most I want nothing more than just to teach properly and to have some kind of normality. My mental health after a term of remote teaching was shot and teaching with all these COVID restraints that clearly haven’t worked made it worse. So if we had to go back to remote I’d hate it. However if it really were just for 3 weeks, I could tolerate it and accept that it’s completely supported by the evidence. No it wouldn’t remove the virus from circulation but it would again put the squeeze on the case curve.

I want it fucking over more than anyone-but being impatient isn’t going to turn out well.

Yep lower it and start to manage the test isolate and trace stuff with some professionalism

CCFCSteve · Oct 31, 2020

Brighton Sky Blue said:
I think it’s clear Steve that more than most I want nothing more than just to teach properly and to have some kind of normality. My mental health after a term of remote teaching was shot and teaching with all these COVID restraints that clearly haven’t worked made it worse. So if we had to go back to remote I’d hate it. However if it really were just for 3 weeks, I could tolerate it and accept that it’s completely supported by the evidence. No it wouldn’t remove the virus from circulation but it would again put the squeeze on the case curve.

I want it fucking over more than anyone-but being impatient isn’t going to turn out well.

I think schools will remain open though, which just appears bizarre under current circumstance (based of the varied evidence). My worry is this will not be a 3-4 circuit breaker but turn into an extended lockdown. Let’s hope/pray for some good vaccine/treatment news soon !!!

Ps fair play to you guys and others on the front line. Can’t be easy. Please don’t say you’re gloried babysitters, however tricky the last few weeks have been it has no doubt benefited large numbers of kids lives (remote working is great in theory but I’m sure most kids would’ve got a lot more from schools being open)

Sky Blue Pete · Oct 31, 2020

CCFCSteve said:
I think schools will remain open though, which just appears bizarre under current circumstance (based of the varied evidence). My worry is this will not be a 3-4 circuit breaker but turn into an extended lockdown. Let’s hope/pray for some good vaccine/treatment news soon !!!

Ps fair play to you guys and others on the front line. Can’t be easy. Please don’t say you’re gloried babysitters, however tricky the last few weeks have been it has no doubt benefited large numbers of kids lives (remote working is great in theory but I’m sure most kids would’ve got a lot more from schools being open)

Well said steve most teachers are bloody brilliant

shmmeee · Oct 31, 2020

CCFCSteve said:
I was going to send this a couple of days ago but held off and even though I appreciate I’m now even less on the right side of the latest scientific advice, I thought I’d still post it...

I’ve seen plenty on here saying, locked down again, have regular lockdowns, just add extra weeks onto school hols etc etc but none fully take into account the ramifications of this ie if the schools close parents or more worryingly grandparents having to stay home to look after the kids (in particular key workers), the impact on businesses during lockdowns (whatever scheme is offered it won’t be enough for many to survive so huge redundancies on way), the mental health impacts of the lockdowns etc etc or the most importantly the fact that a significant proportion of the public are no longer following the measures !!!

I’m all for people hammering the government for things like track and trace, Hancocks general shitness etc but also there has got to be some realism

People keep part quoting Sage who ‘recommended’ a circuit break, without then acknowledging that, they would need more than one and also these would have negative impacts elsewhere and have a disproportionate effect on the poorest in society, as did WHO (and young as I’ve mentioned before). Nor recognising that they may only put the virus back for 3-4 weeks, the fact that people with far more serious illnesses have either avoided hospitals or GPs (26m lost appts apparently), or missed screenings in the last lockdown. Probably a sweeping generalisation but I’m guessing most people calling for lockdowns like it’s a relatively simple solution tick at least a couple of the following boxes - probably in a relationship, possibly got kids, don’t go out/socialise as much, got a relatively safe jobs, live in a house (not for example a one bed flat) and are probably higher risk. What about those that don’t tick any/as many of those boxes ?

I’m not saying lockdowns won’t help, of course they would and I’m all for using them as a tool to help manage NHS capacity but throughout Europe most countries are taking very similar approaches (we’re not an outlier)

I personally would’ve liked to have seen a big push on ensuring people follow self isolation measures (10% doing so means the actual track and trace numbers are pretty irrelevant) and also a massive push to get people healthier. I read that only over 65s maintained or improved their level of exercise/fitness during the first wave. So basically loads on furlough, saving time with no work/commuting (albeit many looking after kids) etc yet, didn’t manage to even do the same exercise as before, when the weather was good and when it’s known to help the fight against the virus...WTF ?!! For all the governments faults (there’s many), people have got to start taking some personal responsibility in all this and I don’t think following self isolation rules when you’ve got/likely to have the virus and upping exercise (although now far trickier with shit weather) is too much to ask !

Added bit - The scientific ‘evidence’ is all over the place on this at the moment...where the transmissions are happening (hospitality or not ??), how many are currently being infected (from c30k per day to 90k per day - R rate from 1.1-1.3 to 1.6+ - bit of a difference !!!!), whether you are likely to be reinfected, fatality rates (from 0.2 to 1%), and how many have had it (anywhere between 7% and 30%+ - the use antibodies to estimate this appears crazy). It’s hard to know what to believe anymore and all of the above have massive implications on whats the best strategy to use.

RANT OVER - I go large and not often on here these days. No offence to any of those supporting lockdowns by the way, I get it, 100%, especially when you’re trying to protect loved ones, just trying to show there’s another side to the coin and it’s not a straight forward a call as people suggest

Ps what a win last night...let’s hope at least football continues in lockdown. PUSB x

With respect, the evidence is pretty overwhelming that the virus is spreading exponentially and we aren’t far from hitting capacity in areas of the NHS. Equally it’s pretty overwhelming that local lockdowns don’t work and it’s National or nothing.

But lockdowns are a last resort when your track and trace has failed/been overwhelmed.

You say a two week lockdown would be terrible but it’s to avoid a three month one which would be worse. It’s the uncertainty that’s killing people mentally in my experience. If we plan proper support for these mini lockdowns I see no reason why it would cause some mental health crisis.

At the moment it’s the worst of all worlds. Businesses are hurting without clear support. Local economies are being destroyed for months at a time for no good reason.

Unless you’re claiming the virus doesn’t need managing at all, and we should just let people and business die to protect a theoretical mental health effect from lockdown, then I don’t see what other options we have.

Don’t lock down at all and watch hospitality and other businesses go to the wall as people are too scared to go out, tens of not hundreds of thousands dead before their time and tens of thousands more because the NHS is incapacitated. I find it very very hard to believe that’s seriously what you’re arguing for.

Brighton Sky Blue · Oct 31, 2020

CCFCSteve said:
I think schools will remain open though, which just appears bizarre under current circumstance (based of the varied evidence). My worry is this will not be a 3-4 circuit breaker but turn into an extended lockdown. Let’s hope/pray for some good vaccine/treatment news soon !!!

Ps fair play to you guys and others on the front line. Can’t be easy. Please don’t say you’re gloried babysitters, however tricky the last few weeks have been it has no doubt benefited large numbers of kids lives (remote working is great in theory but I’m sure most kids would’ve got a lot more from schools being open)

It’s that first part I can’t take. We all know schools spread it around so if you’re going to put me in there let me do it properly and give them a proper learning experience. We are having to reinvent the science curriculum from scratch with no support and that’s without all the other problems caused by being confined to a box

shmmeee · Oct 31, 2020

Brighton Sky Blue said:
It’s that first part I can’t take. We all know schools spread it around so if you’re going to put me in there let me do it properly and give them a proper learning experience. We are having to reinvent the science curriculum from scratch with no support and that’s without all the other problems caused by being confined to a box

It’s the same everywhere and emblematic of this governments approach to everything. Half arse it if you arse it at all. End up with the worst of both worlds.

We so desperately need leadership in this country.

Deleted member 5849 · Oct 31, 2020

CCFCSteve said:
the mental health impacts of the lockdowns etc etc

I'd just like to say that my mental health is far worse having to see someone I care about go in, needlessly in my view, to a high risk area, and them being in tears each time they set off and come back.

And yes, I have suggested they quit, and I'll support them, but they're worried about me losing my job, because we've not got an integrated support system.

Mental health and wellbeing ain't just affected negatively by staying home and saving lives.

CCFCSteve · Oct 31, 2020

Sky Blue Pete said:
Yep lower it and start to manage the test isolate and trace stuff with some professionalism

They need to sort it and quickly. Harding has got to go (even if only perception/to give it new impetus). Having said that as I mentioned Pete only 10% are are fully following self isolation rules

CCFCSteve · Oct 31, 2020

shmmeee said:
With respect, the evidence is pretty overwhelming that the virus is spreading exponentially and we aren’t far from hitting capacity in areas of the NHS. Equally it’s pretty overwhelming that local lockdowns don’t work and it’s National or nothing.

But lockdowns are a last resort when your track and trace has failed/been overwhelmed.

You say a two week lockdown would be terrible but it’s to avoid a three month one which would be worse. It’s the uncertainty that’s killing people mentally in my experience. If we plan proper support for these mini lockdowns I see no reason why it would cause some mental health crisis.

At the moment it’s the worst of all worlds. Businesses are hurting without clear support. Local economies are being destroyed for months at a time for no good reason.

Unless you’re claiming the virus doesn’t need managing at all, and we should just let people and business die to protect a theoretical mental health effect from lockdown, then I don’t see what other options we have.

Don’t lock down at all and watch hospitality and other businesses go to the wall as people are too scared to go out, tens of not hundreds of thousands dead before their time and tens of thousands more because the NHS is incapacitated. I find it very very hard to believe that’s seriously what you’re arguing for.

Of course it needs managing Shmmeee, hope my lengthy post didn’t suggest otherwise. Just that there’s various things at play

Ps a two week lockdown wouldn’t touch the sides !!!

Deleted member 5849 · Oct 31, 2020

CCFCSteve said:
Ps a two week lockdown wouldn’t touch the sides !!!

That's true but, at the risk of repeating the same things, that's what I've said all along. Do it early, decisively and sure, you'll probably have to do it again, but hanging on and hanging on means we're flapping around in chaos and carnage.

And that's worse for the economy!

(As an aside, even though you're opposed to me here... and Brexit, can I just say I appreciate the way you at least phrase your posts!)

wingy · Oct 31, 2020

Deleted member 5849 said:
That's true but, at the risk of repeating the same things, that's what I've said all along. Do it early, decisively and sure, you'll probably have to do it again, but hanging on and hanging on means we're flapping around in chaos and carnage.

And that's worse for the economy!

(As an aside, even though you're opposed to me here... and Brexit, can I just say I appreciate the way you at least phrase your posts!)

Poeple have never understood the terms apart from Lockdown .
Anything else has just led to non compliance and confusion ,to outright division.

Flying Fokker · Oct 31, 2020

DR MIKE YEADON:Three facts No 10's experts got wrong

DR MIKE YEADON:On Monday more than 30million Britons will be under Tier Two and Three restrictions.We will then have days - a few weeks at best - until the inevitable total lockdown.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Deleted member 5849 · Oct 31, 2020

wingy said:
Poeple have never understood the terms apart from Lockdown .
Anything else has just led to non compliance and confusion ,to outright division.

It also unravelled quite badly when Cummings carried on in his post. Given the timing of all that coming to light, you'd almost think it was a conspiracy theory to push people out again but... let's assume it isn't, and it was a fatal blow if we expected people to follow messaging. Couple that with the extra confusing go out, don't go out, go and drink a pint, but carefully, go back to your office but don't go and watch sports... it just ends up so muddled.

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