Championship thread 25/26! (21 Viewers)

[KenilworthSkyBlue]

According to xg, Leicester are still overperforming by 3 points.

I've reiterated this point a few times now but half of their goals so far this season have come from outside the box. Again, against Hull the other night their two shots on target were from outside the box - one of which was a goal.

Opposition managers and coaches will undoubtedly have cottoned on to this by now and will instruct their players to avoid giving them that kind of space moving forward.

It's an unsustainable tactic to rely on across a full season.

 

---

[KenilworthSkyBlue]

The sleeping giant thing is embarrasing... They have won a whole two League Cups in their history and their historic average attendance is marginally bigger than ours, which considering our years in the doldrums and playing matches outside of our own City and their much bigger catchment area/population that really is not impressive

A City the size of Birmingham could easily carry two big football clubs but the claim that BCFC are this once mighty fallen giant is simply not true, they are and always have been a decent sized Championship club who wouldn't look out of place if they got into the top flight

Rule 101 of marketing, a company that shouts the loudest about being the best, usually isn't.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Will they even then? Based on the stats they looked like they were over performing in the first block of games.

Recent form possibly suggests those numbers are starting to come to fruition, albeit it's a small sample pool.

There's also the looming points deduction to consider.

We're overperforming by 1 point now, which has swung by underperforming by a 2-3 points iirc. This is in the space of 2-3 games.

The old adage is the past performance is not an indication of future success. We underperformed massively last season and should've been Top 3 on these metrics alone.

It's too early to write any team off and Leicester do have the quality to consistently overperform the data (as Sheff U did last season). My thing with Leicester is that I don't think Cifuentes is a manager capable leading a top Championship team. Leicester fans aren't convinced and the moment their form turns, he'll be gone. What comes next is make or break for their season.

Looking at the Top 8, I'm reasonably happy to stick my neck out and say Ipswich, Southampton, Sheff U and Leicester will be there or thereabouts come game day 46.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

The sleeping giant thing is embarrasing... They have won a whole two League Cups in their history and their historic average attendance is marginally bigger than ours, which considering our years in the doldrums and playing matches outside of our own City and their much bigger catchment area/population that really is not impressive

A City the size of Birmingham could easily carry two big football clubs but the claim that BCFC are this once mighty fallen giant is simply not true, they are and always have been a decent sized Championship club who wouldn't look out of place if they got into the top flight

They're a tin pot club with delusions of grandeur. Hence, they've been taken in by owners promising big things.

They're struggling to deliver in the Championship despite outspending most of the EFL over the last 2 seasons. You can financially bully L1 and L2, but the Championship is a tougher nut to crack, let alone the Premiership.

11% or so on the loans they put into Blues will cripple them if they do not make the promised land. It will inevitably catch up when you spend £25m on two strikers and neither are top end for the division.

 

[Major Tom]

View attachment 46750

"Accoustic Dampening" in the away end. Fucking hell.

they will have to build a Yam-Yam'omitor

 

[KenilworthSkyBlue]

We're overperforming by 1 point now, which has swung by underperforming by a 2-3 points iirc. This is in the space of 2-3 games.

The old adage is the past performance is not an indication of future success. We underperformed massively last season and should've been Top 3 on these metrics alone.

It's too early to write any team off and Leicester do have the quality to consistently overperform the data (as Sheff U did last season). My thing with Leicester is that I don't think Cifuentes is a manager capable leading a top Championship team. Leicester fans aren't convinced and the moment their form turns, he'll be gone. What comes next is make or break for their season.

Looking at the Top 8, I'm reasonably happy to stick my neck out and say Ipswich, Southampton, Sheff U and Leicester will be there or thereabouts come game day 46.

True, but in the manner that we've been playing I can understand that. Looking at Leicester's style and the manner at which they're performing in games it's one of those really that I can't particularly see things switching massively, but granted, it's too early in the season to make a proper assessment of that.

Well yeah and the secondary issue is which I've said in another post I don't think Cifuentes is all that capable of achieving promotion with Leicester either, not helped by the constraints he's under in terms of having to basically inherit a largely disinterested and lopsided squad which he can't really mould to his liking through bringing in a new crop of players.

I think Leicester will probably finish in the top 10, they certainly have the squad to justify that. But to suggest they're going to be 'top 4 at least' which was your previous prediction, was a wild take given the points you and I have laid out and the uncertainty around them.

 

[Liquid Gold]

Doug is a good thoughtful owner who thinks about what he's doing and 95% of the time gets it right, he also has a great head of hair. Wagner is an arrogant yank who likes the camera, glazes up thick Brummies with fantasy stories and has a head like a plucked turkey.

I’m starting to think you might dislike blues and blades

 

[Gynnsthetonic]

We're overperforming by 1 point now, which has swung by underperforming by a 2-3 points iirc. This is in the space of 2-3 games.

The old adage is the past performance is not an indication of future success. We underperformed massively last season and should've been Top 3 on these metrics alone.

It's too early to write any team off and Leicester do have the quality to consistently overperform the data (as Sheff U did last season). My thing with Leicester is that I don't think Cifuentes is a manager capable leading a top Championship team. Leicester fans aren't convinced and the moment their form turns, he'll be gone. What comes next is make or break for their season.

Looking at the Top 8, I'm reasonably happy to stick my neck out and say Ipswich, Southampton, Sheff U and Leicester will be there or thereabouts come game day 46.

Out of those teams I've got a horrible feeling that Sheff Utd will be in the top 6 by Christmas

 

[Major Tom]

True, but in the manner that we've been playing I can understand that. Looking at Leicester's style and the manner at which they're performing in games it's one of those really that I can't particularly see things switching massively, but granted, it's too early in the season to make a proper assessment of that.

Well yeah and the secondary issue is which I've said in another post I don't think Cifuentes is all that capable of achieving promotion with Leicester either, not helped by the constraints he's under in terms of having to basically inherit a largely disinterested and lopsided squad which he can't really mould to his liking through bringing in a new crop of players.

I think Leicester will probably in the top 10, they certainly have the squad to justify that. But to suggest they're going to be 'top 4 at least' which was your previous prediction, was a wild take given the points you and I have laid out and the uncertainty around them.

Early days and I know i'm dreaming, but would love to get promoted at home in the CBS with games to go (Wrexham at home 25/4 would be nice) Imagine the party atmosphere it would be mental!

 

[TomRad85]

I’m starting to think you might dislike blues and blades

Whatever gave you that idea?

 

[sbatea1]

Be thankful for uncle Doug. £15m that doesn’t count to PSR and a stadium in the summer.

One for the PSR experts this...

1 thing I found interesting from a clip I saw of baldy Wagner last night, was him basically saying they aren't bothered if they don't go up before they build this 'sports qtr' because, as it's the club that are building it, all the revenue made from the sports qtr infrastructure counts on the FFP bottom line and so they would have such big revenue (£150m mentioned!!) when it opens that it'd be much easier to get promoted then.

I know outgoings on infrastructure don't count for FFP/PSR but surely the incomings from basically unrelated infrastructure can't count? It's a massive loophole if so.

 

[Sky Blue Goblin]

One for the PSR experts this...

1 thing I found interesting from a clip I saw of baldy Wagner last night, was him basically saying they aren't bothered if they don't go up before they build this 'sports qtr' because, as it's the club that are building it, all the revenue made from the sports qtr infrastructure counts on the FFP bottom line and so they would have such big revenue (£150m mentioned!!) when it opens that it'd be much easier to get promoted then.

I know outgoings on infrastructure don't count for FFP/PSR but surely the incomings from basically unrelated infrastructure can't count? It's a massive loophole if so.

This is why we are seeing alot of clubs wanting to build an operate hotels and extras since it all goes towards to the club finances.

Think Doug touched on this when we bought the arena as it pretty much has everything people are trying to build for their stadiums

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I've got a tubby West Brom fan to wind up later. I don't actually mind them in comparison to other Midland clubs, they are just kind of a nothing club to me really, but their fans still have that slight sense of superiority i find. This one mate never says anything positive about us, when we won at Pompey, all he could message was "hanging on at the end." Needless to say, i'm going to go in today.

Generally they're the least objectionable of the clubs near us I think, they do have some league titles to their name unlike the bin bag boys on the opposite side of the city and a more impressive history.

That said, their recent yo-yo status has given their supporters a bit of left over PL arrogance, so go to town on him.

 

[CovRes]

Out of those teams I've got a horrible feeling that Sheff Utd will be in the top 6 by Christmas

On Christmas day last year Boro were 6th with 35 points from 22 matches.

They're on 9 points. So that's an average of 2.36 points per game to get there. That's 8 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses.

They may be in the top 10 but top 6 looks unlikely.

With 35 games left until the end of the season, to reach the 68 points that Bristol City needed to finish 6th (which was relatively low), they'll need to average nearly 1.7 points per game.

Not impossible, but it won't be easy either.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Out of those teams I've got a horrible feeling that Sheff Utd will be in the top 6 by Christmas

I look at Sheff U as the fixture we're most likely to lose between now and the international break imo.

True, but in the manner that we've been playing I can understand that. Looking at Leicester's style and the manner at which they're performing in games it's one of those really that I can't particularly see things switching massively, but granted, it's too early in the season to make a proper assessment of that.

Well yeah and the secondary issue is which I've said in another post I don't think Cifuentes is all that capable of achieving promotion with Leicester either, not helped by the constraints he's under in terms of having to basically inherit a largely disinterested and lopsided squad which he can't really mould to his liking through bringing in a new crop of players.

I think Leicester will probably finish in the top 10, they certainly have the squad to justify that. But to suggest they're going to be 'top 4 at least' which was your previous prediction, was a wild take given the points you and I have laid out and the uncertainty around them.

I think this is a dangerous underestimation of them. They are the best team we've played this season and the best squad we've faced so don't think it's particularly wild to say they'll finish top 4 (not including points deduction). The points deduction may be significant but until the scale is known, it's an unknown factor.

They haven't been playing well and are still in the mix.

I'm not really concerned about anyone in the league just yet because the league at this point is still open. As a rule, I only start to look at other results (properly) after Xmas, last season it was March when we needed some results to go our way. When you're top, you're in full control of your own destiny.

 

[KenilworthSkyBlue]

One for the PSR experts this...

1 thing I found interesting from a clip I saw of baldy Wagner last night, was him basically saying they aren't bothered if they don't go up before they build this 'sports qtr' because, as it's the club that are building it, all the revenue made from the sports qtr infrastructure counts on the FFP bottom line and so they would have such big revenue (£150m mentioned!!) when it opens that it'd be much easier to get promoted then.

I know outgoings on infrastructure don't count for FFP/PSR but surely the incomings from basically unrelated infrastructure can't count? It's a massive loophole if so.

Whatever a club generates organically can be counted towards offsetting spending regulations.

I really wouldn't take any notice of figures that are touted though, they're speculative nonsense which are baseless.

But to answer the hypothetical point it's not really a massive loophole as it would take at least 5-7 years starting from ground being broken for a project of that size to be completed and then X amount of years for the sports quarter as an entirety to be generating that kind of revenue.

It would be physically impossibly to generate that kind of revenue in the Championship though.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

On Christmas day last year Boro were 6th with 35 points from 22 matches.

They're on 9 points. So that's an average of 2.36 points per game to get there. That's 8 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses.

They may be in the top 10 but top 6 looks unlikely.

With 35 games left until the end of the season, to reach the 68 points that Bristol City needed to finish 6th (which was relatively low), they'll need to average nearly 1.7 points per game.

Not impossible, but it won't be easy either.

We have shown for the last 3 consecutive seasons that a shit start isn't terminal for a successful campaign overall. You write teams off in this division at your peril, as I learned the hard way!

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

On Christmas day last year Boro were 6th with 35 points from 22 matches.

They're on 9 points. So that's an average of 2.36 points per game to get there. That's 8 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses.

They may be in the top 10 but top 6 looks unlikely.

With 35 games left until the end of the season, to reach the 68 points that Bristol City needed to finish 6th (which was relatively low), they'll need to average nearly 1.7 points per game.

Not impossible, but it won't be easy either.

Last season, we had 9 points after 11 games... We finished 5th.

I think it'll be a low threshold for playoffs again this season. Barring ourselves, there is no stand out team and teams are dropping points all over. The promoted teams are usually the easy 4-6 points for most teams but this season will probably have the best intake from L1 and worst intake from the Prem in a long while.

 

[CovRes]

We have shown for the last 3 consecutive seasons that a shit start isn't terminal for a successful campaign overall. You write teams off in this division at your peril, as I learned the hard way!

I'm not writing them off over the course of the season for a playoff spot, although they may have blown any chance of autos.

 

[steve cooper]

Out of those teams I've got a horrible feeling that Sheff Utd will be in the top 6 by Christmas

Jury is still out on them. So far they have beaten Watford, Blackburn, and Oxford, they have lost all the rest. Those results, 2 of which were 1-0 don't immediately shout top 6

 

[CovRes]

Last season, we had 9 points after 11 games... We finished 5th.

I think it'll be a low threshold for playoffs again this season. Barring ourselves, there is no stand out team and teams are dropping points all over. The promoted teams are usually the easy 4-6 points for most teams but this season will probably have the best intake from L1 and worst intake from the Prem in a long while.

It's the existence of standout teams that that generally lowers the threshold for playoffs.

I think we took 1 point from the top 3 last season. The year before I think we took 7.

So it may need 75ish points to finish 6th this year without a couple of teams hoovering up all the points.

 

[KenilworthSkyBlue]

I look at Sheff U as the fixture we're most likely to lose between now and the international break imo.



I think this is a dangerous underestimation of them. They are the best team we've played this season and the best squad we've faced so don't think it's particularly wild to say they'll finish top 4 (not including points deduction). The points deduction may be significant but until the scale is known, it's an unknown factor.

They haven't been playing well and are still in the mix.

I'm not really concerned about anyone in the league just yet because the league at this point is still open. As a rule, I only start to look at other results after Xmas, last season it was March when we needed some results to go our way. When you're top, you're in full control of your own destiny.

I'm not really underestimating them I just think it's a misconception to rate them as highly as you perhaps seem to based on existing form and the personnel they have available. There's also a lot of variables that need to be factored in, which could very much effect where they're likely to finish.

They're obviously still a threatening outfit, especially with the quality of their wide players, Fatawu being the obvious one.

But they also blow very hot and cold - the performance vs Hull the other night was a classic example of that - and several times this season have had to be dug out by converting low probability chances to get a result, which just isn't sustainable across a full campaign.

But yeah, while I think the first 10 games certainly can give early indications of form for the remainder of the season, realistically the league isn't likely start to take shape for another couple of months yet, well for the most part anyway.

It'll be interesting to see how it pans out.

 

[steve cooper]

Last season, we had 9 points after 11 games... We finished 5th.

I think it'll be a low threshold for playoffs again this season. Barring ourselves, there is no stand out team and teams are dropping points all over. The promoted teams are usually the easy 4-6 points for most teams but this season will probably have the best intake from L1 and worst intake from the Prem in a long while.

But it took a run of something like 27 points from a possible 30 from memory. It can be done but that sort of run won't be achieved from a lower team often.

 

[rob9872]

But it took a run of something like 27 points from a possible 30 from memory. It can be done but that sort of run won't be achieved from a lower team often.

Well they've won 2 on the spin already to get to 9, so I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing as it means they're in form, but if they go ona run like ours, they'd still only get 21 more points not our 27 as they're part way through it. Also play-offs last year were less points needed and we only had 69 I think. That was down to the top 3 beating almost everyone, this year that's not happening so you'll likely need 74/75 to get in I think.

 

[pusbccfc]

View attachment 46750

"Accoustic Dampening" in the away end. Fucking hell.

They will regret this.

Look at West Ham. 30,000 home fans to 57,000 overnight. Filled in by nearly 30,000 tourists which completely kill the atmosphere.

Birmingham do not have 60,000 regular fans.

The noise dampening is embarrassing. Away fans making noise is part of the overall atmosphere at football. Football matches are always better for it.

 

[pusbccfc]

I think it will end up built but for me it has all the hallmarks of a West Ham type move all over it

Once the novelty wears off their 'proper' fans will miss the spit and sawdust of St Andrew's and end up hating it

It will definitely be built and you are right, they are a supposed 'proper club' moving from an old stadium with character to one which will ultimately compare to an NFL stadium.

The issue Birmingham fans have is that they are so obsessed with getting one over Villa, they would happily have 30,000 people rattling around a 60,000 seater NFL stadium just to say they have a bigger ground that their neighbours.

 

[rob9872]

They've bought other local teams and plan to have it all centralised. Tbh that would be decent and help it grow. I'd love for us to have all of our training ground and academy around the CBS with everything brought together. Dare I say the set up Leicester have is pretty impressive too.

 

[Mcbean]

It will definitely be built and you are right, they are a supposed 'proper club' moving from an old stadium with character to one which will ultimately compare to an NFL stadium.

The issue Birmingham fans have is that they are so obsessed with getting one over Villa, they would happily have 30,000 people rattling around a 60,000 seater NFL stadium just to say they have a bigger ground that their neighbours.

Tom Brady reckons he can fill
It either way with Yank fans

 

[KenilworthSkyBlue]

They will regret this.

Look at West Ham. 30,000 home fans to 57,000 overnight. Filled in by nearly 30,000 tourists which completely kill the atmosphere.

Birmingham do not have 60,000 regular fans.

The noise dampening is embarrassing. Away fans making noise is part of the overall atmosphere at football. Football matches are always better for it.

Yeah this was largely achieved two-fold.

At the time of moving into the Olympic Stadium they had a ridiculously long waiting list into the tens of thousands and they got the pricing strategy completely wrong. STs were less than £300 from memory which for PL football is outrageous.

 

[pusbccfc]

Yeah this was largely achieved two-fold.

At the time of moving into the Olympic Stadium they had a ridiculously long waiting list into the tens of thousands and they got the pricing strategy completely wrong. STs were less than £300 from memory which for PL football is outrageous.

West Ham are many times bigger than Birmingham too.

If Birmingham were to build a 40,000 seater, it would be understandable. 60,000 is a step too far.

Man City are a huge club, but another who regularly complain about tourists filling seats.

Selling their soul for success...

 

[pusbccfc]

Tom Brady reckons he can fill
It either way with Yank fans

They can fill it, but it won't be with regular Birmingham supporters.

A perfect comparison above was London Wasps. They filled the stadium for a few years but it was not with Wasps supporters.

 

[KenilworthSkyBlue]

They can fill it, but it won't be with regular Birmingham supporters.

A perfect comparison above was London Wasps. They filled the stadium for a few years but it was not with Wasps supporters.

Huh??? They weren't anywhere near filling it were they? Even with all the free tickets throw in.

There's not a realistic scenario where Birmingham City fill a 60k capacity stadium. That's a fact.

 

[KenilworthSkyBlue]

West Ham are many times bigger than Birmingham too.

If Birmingham were to build a 40,000 seater, it would be understandable. 60,000 is a step too far.

Man City are a huge club, but another who regularly complain about tourists filling seats.

Selling their soul for success...

It's not just a step too far it's a complete fantasy.

 

[Major Tom]

They can fill it, but it won't be with regular Birmingham supporters.

A perfect comparison above was London Wasps. They filled the stadium for a few years but it was not with Wasps supporters.

loads of local giveaways too

 

[Londonccfcfan]

Just can't help being impressed so far with Hull. Now they got Liam Millar back from injury he will be the next superstar...the lad has everything always been so impressed by him. Best winger in league by million miles along with maybe fatawu. He ripped Leicester a new one time and again on Saturday.