I just think we would be at the mercy of ACL again. Get promotion, rent goes up, surviving only of the revenue from ticket sales from supporters who haven't rarely shown up consistently in great numbers over the last 20 years. SISU hang around because no one wants to buy a football club that only has a golden share as an asset. Continue in mediocrity.
But surely rent would only go up on promotion if that's the lease we agreed to? You say the "mercy of ACL" as if they have at any point in recent times been unwilling to support the club. I'd be interested to know what lead you to that viewpoint.
I actually did the analysis of our average attendance since the turn of last century and actually, it's fairly consistent with success. We lose roughly 5k for a relegation and gain roughly the same or a bit more for a promotion, then it starts to atrophy without further success. I think in this particular chicken and egg situation the club has to provide the product first.
The problem with our club goes back well past the Ricoh. We were £60m in debt upon relegation. We overspent and never got that debt under control. We then had a ground in HR that didn't provide enough revenue to support a modern club so moved to the Ricoh then immediately sold the revenue there as well.
You talk as if (and again stop me if I'm wrong) Sisu will just sell up because that's how they want to realise the value in the club and make back their investment. But isn't it just as, if not more likely, that they will simply mortgage the Ricoh/new ground and leave the club with the debt? Sure it makes the club less sellable, but if they've got their cash back why do they care? I am especially worried that comments from Fisher in private I've been told about (can't stand people of Coventry) and frankly the way the whole thing has gone down mean that there is quite a bit of bad blood between Joy and the City of Coventry. In a situation where she wouldn't make much more from selling as she would from liquidation, I wouldn't put it past her to do it out of spite.
That's what worries a lot of people. I, like you, want a sustainable club going forward. If I'm honest I think that there are two routes to that:
- CCC agree to hand back the 50% of ACL as originally agreed on a long lease with low rent guaranteed. (Even this one relies on us getting out of the debt to Sisu somehow)
- We go bust and start again.
If we build a new ground we're stuck with lower revenues then the Ricoh and will have the problem as you said of relying on ticket sales alone. If Sisu get the freehold there is nothing ensuring that the club is protected and they can load us with debt.
I'm also concerned as to who on earth would buy us in L1 for £60m. Is there any record of any club at our level going for that kind of amount, own ground or not?