marrrkjay_ccfc
Well-Known Member
I agree. The pessimist in me has us finishing on 91/92 points. The optimist has us finishing on 95 points.
If we continue our home form, most of our away games look winnable!
10 more wins does it (24 Viewers)
- Thread starter Saddlebrains
- Start date
If we continue our home form, most of our away games look winnable!
Nick
Administrator
Draw, 15 injuries and 9 red cards would do
JulianDarbyFTW
Well-Known Member
The crucial variable in all of this is bottle. How well can we - and the others - deal with the pressure. So far, we've managed pretty well, despite the blip (as 4 wins in a row attests) but as the finish line gets closer it gets more nervy. It's all to play for, as far as I'm concerned.
baldy
Well-Known Member
Why do you foresee us losing at home to Wrexham?
Liquid Gold
Well-Known Member
Completely agree. If we can stay ahead of one or ideally both of them before that game then we should be able to do it.
I think it's inevitable we have a bad weekend here and there before the end but it should be ours now.
Lamps
Well-Known Member
Hull won't be easy, but not in the way they are a very good side.
They shouldn't be anywhere near the top of the table with the way their finances stopped them from putting a good squad together. But they have the same as us in one way. A squad that are very close and battle for the whole 90 minutes. The closest Championship side to them is Oxford, but they have more quality going forward. They can be difficult to score against.
Lamps
Well-Known Member
Can we take it in blocks of 4 instead of including our 'wobble'?
2 A
2 H
12 points
OK I hear that isn't fair. Block of 5? As near as dammit half the remaining games. W4 D1 L0.
Recent form is the biggest indicator. Only Southampton can match us and to be truthful other than when we play them they're not rival to us. I know they still have to come to our place, but Ipswich have to go to theirs. With our home record we have a better chance of picking up points against them than Ipswich do. I'm just so glad they started the season with a poor managerial choice, otherwise the table would be looking so different now.
Robinshio
Well-Known Member
26 guarantees promotion with their game against each other.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
There aren’t easy games in championship, to use that cliche. That said, Hull’s home record is middling and it’s a game we need to be targeting a win from.
If we take the lead against them, we’ll be fine.
itsabuzzard
Well-Known Member
Not quite flawless.
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
Because the team will be hungover from celebrating clinching the league on the previous Tuesday
Hutch11
Well-Known Member
Down at St Mary's we were much the better side, had a stonewall penalty and red card turned down when we were on topCan we take it in blocks of 4 instead of including our 'wobble'?
2 A
2 H
12 points
OK I hear that isn't fair. Block of 5? As near as dammit half the remaining games. W4 D1 L0.
Recent form is the biggest indicator. Only Southampton can match us and to be truthful other than when we play them they're not rival to us. I know they still have to come to our place, but Ipswich have to go to theirs. With our home record we have a better chance of picking up points against them than Ipswich do. I'm just so glad they started the season with a poor managerial choice, otherwise the table would be looking so different now.
Even after Dasilva got sent off they weren't all that
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
They're in good form though and in this league a teams form from 2 or 3 months previous often isn't relevant, ours isn't.
I still think we should turn them over.
Liquid Gold
Well-Known Member
For those that weren't confident last night should clarify that it's a three horse race.
Hull and Millllllll might be a threat to Ipswich and Boro but we would have to majory shit the bed for them to overtake us.
Our priority is maintaing, and if possible improving upon, that 5 point gap and letting the number of games diminish.
All three of us will drop points but I suspect there will also be a few 9 point game weeks too.
It's in our hands so we just need to focus on ourselves, take each game as it comes and win as many games as we can.
Hull and Millllllll might be a threat to Ipswich and Boro but we would have to majory shit the bed for them to overtake us.
Our priority is maintaing, and if possible improving upon, that 5 point gap and letting the number of games diminish.
All three of us will drop points but I suspect there will also be a few 9 point game weeks too.
It's in our hands so we just need to focus on ourselves, take each game as it comes and win as many games as we can.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Millwall play Boro and Ipswich so they could genuinely be in the conversation for an automatic berth. It’s unlikely but hopefully the 3 below us knock bells out of each other.
If we beat Bristol and PNE, we’re looking too strong and could afford to draw to Southampton. Although, why couldn’t we beat them? Before the red card we were better team at their place.
Liquid Gold
Well-Known Member
I don't dispute the option of a Millwall auto run but it willd efinitely be at the expense of Ipswich or Boro and not us.
We're in the position of only looking at the two behind. Boro and Ipswich are looking up at us and at Millwall and Hull. We're in the better position.
AFCCOVENTRY
Well-Known Member
Grendel
Well-Known Member
The pitch is like a beach. It’s shocking.
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
Things can change between one game and another. Since that fixture the squad at Southampton seemed to have 'clicked' and they're no a much more difficult proposition now. We need to respect them, but certainly not fear them. Play at our best and we beat them.
SonofErnie
Well-Known Member
A possible reason for their poor home form and a good game to employ a more direct style?
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
We’ve been more direct since Onyeka has come through the door. Seems like a deliberate change in tactics from Lampard because we went from having 50%+ possession to 35-45% barring Stoke at home where we were chasing a 2nd goal until the end.
What’s good about this team is that we can be counter attacking as well as ball dominant in possession. A testament to the recruitment and coaching staff.
KenilworthSkyBlue
Well-Known Member
I don't really see Millwall posing much of a threat to either Boro or Ipswich if I'm honest. Their record against the current top 6 so far this season is very poor.
Lost 0-4 and 2-1 to us.
Lost 3-0 to Boro.
Drew 0-0 to Ipswich
Lost 3-1 to Hull.
Won 0-2 and 2-0 to Wrexham.
4 points from a possible 21.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Probably not, in most cases I back the home team too. However, they can do us a favour by scrapping a draw or even nick a win.
Either way, the fact they’re 4 points off with an opportunity to win 2 6-pointers means their destiny is in their hands and can’t be fully discounted.
Besides, Millwall are closed to Ipswich and Boro than they are to us. Realistically, it is a 3 horse race for 2nd place.
We’re not out of the woods but 5 points clear of 2nd with 10 games left whilst 2nd and 3rd play each other puts us in a position where our position is nearly unassailable.
KenilworthSkyBlue
Well-Known Member
I don't think they've got the legs for automatics based on that very reason though. Similar to relegation you need to be beating those around you and they've been doing the polar opposite.
Ideally they take points of Ipswich and Boro but thus far they just haven't really shown enough against the top six to make me think they will. Even a draw against one of the two would be enough but we'll have to see I'm not particularly convinced.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Agree on that, nonetheless, they are a factor who can piss on at least 1 parade. I can see Millwall picking up a result at Boro, their home form is the weakest of the top 3.
I’d love to know @mrfr’s logic for the model that has Millwall finishing 2nd.
I know it's Football League World who are mostly rubbish, but this is an interesting read.
also predicting 87 will be enough with Ipswich 3rd on 86
footballleagueworld.co.uk
also predicting 87 will be enough with Ipswich 3rd on 86
The exact results of Coventry City and Middlesbrough's remaining EFL Championship fixtures simulated by AI
The two sides are still leading the way in the automatic promotion race as things stand
footballleagueworld.co.uk
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
Suggests that before Onyeka the coaches were concerned about us losing possession and being able to stop their attacks. Which I guess you can understand with a number of the goals we've conceded and the likes of Rudoni, Torp, Eccles, Allen and even Grimes aren't exactly ballwinners.
Whereas Onyeka they think "if we lose the ball, he'll win it back"
probably not the only one but I’m trying to find some stat just to ease the nerves a bit, this is the best i could come up with and it’s very do able, match the last 11 league games, W6 D2 L3 ( we weren’t great ) gives us 20 points, puts us on 91, for mboro and Ipswich to finish above us on 92 ( I’ll give Ipswich 3 points for their game in hand ) they would need 26 points each from the last 11 games, nearly 9 wins from 11. And they play each other, I’m taking those odds all day
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Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
We won’t be getting 25I know it's Football League World who are mostly rubbish, but this is an interesting read.
also predicting 87 will be enough with Ipswich 3rd on 86
The exact results of Coventry City and Middlesbrough's remaining EFL Championship fixtures simulated by AI
The two sides are still leading the way in the automatic promotion race as things stand
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
For additional context, neither team has managed this all season. So the people obsessing over mathematical possibilities
We stuttered over a difficult winter period, reinforced in Jan, lost top spot for a week and two weeks later we established a 5 point gap.
Ultimately, the only way we fall out of the automatic places is because we’ve dropped our PPG. With 6 home games where we’ve won 75% of our games, you think we’d make most of the required points up there.
and the boro v Ipswich game is huge, comes at a perfect time aswell,just keep doing what we’re doing
long way home
Well-Known Member
Every win from now is makin it so hard for others to have enough games left to catch us and pass us. Thats all we can do and should be looking at, our games, I won't care what others do while we pick up points.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Win 6 more games and Boro especially then require 90 points to overtake us: 8 wins out of 11. As you say, it’s not impossible but it’s a tall order-if they managed that then fair play.