marrrkjay_ccfc
Well-Known Member
I agree. The pessimist in me has us finishing on 91/92 points. The optimist has us finishing on 95 points.
If we continue our home form, most of our away games look winnable!
I agree. The pessimist in me has us finishing on 91/92 points. The optimist has us finishing on 95 points.I don’t think we’ll lose 3 games between now and the end of the season. There’s tough games to come but we’ve played the best teams at home and away.
Based on the averages, 2 losses sounds about right but nothing is really standing out to me. Swansea and Hull will be tough but we’ve won at harder places this season.
Draw, 15 injuries and 9 red cards would doIpswich v Boro is going to be a key move between those two I feel.
I’ll premise this comment by saying I favour us to win most games under Lampard… the only loss I actually foresee is Wrexham and that’s probably on the back of us being promoted by then.
That’s a dream scenario, I could see them taking points off Boro and Ipswich, even if it’s 2 draws. It really demonstrates what a good win that was for us. Just as important as beating Boro imo.
Completely agree. If we can stay ahead of one or ideally both of them before that game then we should be able to do it.Ipswich v Boro is going to be a key move between those two I feel.
Hull won't be easy, but not in the way they are a very good side.I don’t think we’ll lose 3 games between now and the end of the season. There’s tough games to come but we’ve played the best teams at home and away.
Based on the averages, 2 losses sounds about right but nothing is really standing out to me. Swansea and Hull will be tough but we’ve won at harder places this season.
Can we take it in blocks of 4 instead of including our 'wobble'?Just need to match what we’ve done for the last 11, we weren’t great
won 6
drew 2
lost 3
20 points puts us on 92, we’re not being caught on that
26 guarantees promotion with their game against each other.At the moment its 29pts to confirm both promotion and the title as that puts us on 100, and Ipswich and Boro can only get to 99
There aren’t easy games in championship, to use that cliche. That said, Hull’s home record is middling and it’s a game we need to be targeting a win from.Hull won't be easy, but not in the way they are a very good side.
They shouldn't be anywhere near the top of the table with the way their finances stopped them from putting a good squad together. But they have the same as us in one way. A squad that are very close and battle for the whole 90 minutes. The closest Championship side to them is Oxford, but they have more quality going forward. They can be difficult to score against.
Not quite flawless.Most importantly, 4 of them are at home where we’ve been flawless under Lampard.
Over 32 home games, our league home record is 24-5-3. That’s a 75% win percentage, we have every reason to expect 4, possibly 5 wins from the remaining 6.
Why do you foresee us losing at home to Wrexham?
Down at St Mary's we were much the better side, had a stonewall penalty and red card turned down when we were on topCan we take it in blocks of 4 instead of including our 'wobble'?
2 A
2 H
12 points
OK I hear that isn't fair. Block of 5? As near as dammit half the remaining games. W4 D1 L0.
Recent form is the biggest indicator. Only Southampton can match us and to be truthful other than when we play them they're not rival to us. I know they still have to come to our place, but Ipswich have to go to theirs. With our home record we have a better chance of picking up points against them than Ipswich do. I'm just so glad they started the season with a poor managerial choice, otherwise the table would be looking so different now.
Down at St Mary's we were much the better side, had a stonewall penalty and red card turned down when we were on top
Even after Dasilva got sent off they weren't all that
Millwall play Boro and Ipswich so they could genuinely be in the conversation for an automatic berth. It’s unlikely but hopefully the 3 below us knock bells out of each other.For those that weren't confident last night should clarify that it's a three horse race.
Hull and Millllllll might be a threat to Ipswich and Boro but we would have to majory shit the bed for them to overtake us.
Our priority is maintaing, and if possible improving upon, that 5 point gap and letting the number of games diminish.
All three of us will drop points but I suspect there will also be a few 9 point game weeks too.
It's in our hands so we just need to focus on ourselves, take each game as it comes and win as many games as we can.
I don't dispute the option of a Millwall auto run but it willd efinitely be at the expense of Ipswich or Boro and not us.Millwall play Boro and Ipswich so they could genuinely be in the conversation for an automatic berth. It’s unlikely but hopefully the 3 below us knock bells out of each other.
If we beat Bristol and PNE, we’re looking too strong and could afford to draw to Southampton. Although, why couldn’t we beat them? Before the red card we were better team at their place.
There aren’t easy games in championship, to use that cliche. That said, Hull’s home record is middling and it’s a game we need to be targeting a win from.
If we take the lead against them, we’ll be fine.
Things can change between one game and another. Since that fixture the squad at Southampton seemed to have 'clicked' and they're no a much more difficult proposition now. We need to respect them, but certainly not fear them. Play at our best and we beat them.Down at St Mary's we were much the better side, had a stonewall penalty and red card turned down when we were on top
Even after Dasilva got sent off they weren't all that
A possible reason for their poor home form and a good game to employ a more direct style?The pitch is like a beach. It’s shocking.
We’ve been more direct since Onyeka has come through the door. Seems like a deliberate change in tactics from Lampard because we went from having 50%+ possession to 35-45% barring Stoke at home where we were chasing a 2nd goal until the end.A possible reason for their poor home form and a good game to employ a more direct style?
Millwall play Boro and Ipswich so they could genuinely be in the conversation for an automatic berth. It’s unlikely but hopefully the 3 below us knock bells out of each other.
If we beat Bristol and PNE, we’re looking too strong and could afford to draw to Southampton. Although, why couldn’t we beat them? Before the red card we were better team at their place.
Probably not, in most cases I back the home team too. However, they can do us a favour by scrapping a draw or even nick a win.I don't really see Millwall posing much of a threat to either Boro or Ipswich if I'm honest. Their record against the current top 6 so far this season is very poor.
Lost 0-4 and 2-1 to us.
Lost 3-0 to Boro.
Drew 0-0 to Ipswich
Lost 3-1 to Hull.
Won 0-2 and 2-0 to Wrexham.
4 points from a possible 21.
Probably not, in most cases I back the home team too. However, they can do us a favour by scrapping a draw or even nick a win.
Either way, the fact they’re 4 points off with an opportunity to win 2 6-pointers means their destiny is in their hands and can’t be fully discounted.
Besides, Millwall are closed to Ipswich and Boro than they are to us. Realistically, it is a 3 horse race for 2nd place.
We’re not out of the woods but 5 points clear of 2nd with 10 games left whilst 2nd and 3rd play each other puts us in a position where our position is nearly unassailable.
Agree on that, nonetheless, they are a factor who can piss on at least 1 parade. I can see Millwall picking up a result at Boro, their home form is the weakest of the top 3.I don't think they've got the legs for automatics based on that very reason though. Similar to relegation you need to be beating those around you and they've been doing the polar opposite.
Ideally they take points of Ipswich and Boro but thus far they just haven't really shown enough against the top six to make me think they will. Even a draw against one of the two would be enough but we'll have to see I'm not particularly convinced.
Suggests that before Onyeka the coaches were concerned about us losing possession and being able to stop their attacks. Which I guess you can understand with a number of the goals we've conceded and the likes of Rudoni, Torp, Eccles, Allen and even Grimes aren't exactly ballwinners.We’ve been more direct since Onyeka has come through the door. Seems like a deliberate change in tactics from Lampard because we went from having 50%+ possession to 35-45% barring Stoke at home where we were chasing a 2nd goal until the end.
What’s good about this team is that we can be counter attacking as well as ball dominant in possession. A testament to the recruitment and coaching staff.
We won’t be getting 25I know it's Football League World who are mostly rubbish, but this is an interesting read.
also predicting 87 will be enough with Ipswich 3rd on 86
The exact results of Coventry City and Middlesbrough's remaining EFL Championship fixtures simulated by AI
The two sides are still leading the way in the automatic promotion race as things standfootballleagueworld.co.uk
For additional context, neither team has managed this all season. So the people obsessing over mathematical possibilitiesprobably not the only one but I’m trying to find some stat just to ease the nerves a bit, this is the best i could come up with and it’s very do able, match the last 11 league games ( we weren’t great ) gives us 20 points, puts us on 91 for mboro and Ipswich to finish above us on 92 ( I’ll give Ipswich 3 points for their game in hand ) they would need 26 points each from the last 11 games, nearly 9 wins from 11. And they play each other, I’m taking those odds all day
and the boro v Ipswich game is huge, comes at a perfect time aswell,just keep doing what we’re doingFor additional context, neither team has managed this all season. So the people obsessing over mathematical possibilities
We stuttered over a difficult winter period, reinforced in Jan, lost top spot for a week and two weeks later we established a 5 point gap.
Ultimately, the only way we fall out of the automatic places is because we’ve dropped our PPG. With 6 home games where we’ve won 75% of our games, you think we’d make most of the required points up there.
Win 6 more games and Boro especially then require 90 points to overtake us: 8 wins out of 11. As you say, it’s not impossible but it’s a tall order-if they managed that then fair play.For additional context, neither team has managed this all season. So the people obsessing over mathematical possibilities
We stuttered over a difficult winter period, reinforced in Jan, lost top spot for a week and two weeks later we established a 5 point gap.
Ultimately, the only way we fall out of the automatic places is because we’ve dropped our PPG. With 6 home games where we’ve won 75% of our games, you think we’d make most of the required points up there.
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