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Agree on that, nonetheless, they are a factor who can piss on at least 1 parade. I can see Millwall picking up a result at Boro, their home form is the weakest of the top 3. I’d love to know @mrfr’s logic for the model that has Millwall finishing 2nd.

That’s Sheff U did and Leicester over the last 2 seasons. Sheff U’s record last season gets you promoted 9/10. We slowed down away from home, the squad was light and we reinforced in Jan and we’ve kicked back on.

For two teams to do it when both of them play each other is absurd, If we win 6 of the final 10, Ipswich need to win 9 of their remaining 11, Boro 8/10. Let’s assume they draw their game, that means both teams can afford to drop points in another one game. One team could do it and overtake...

Probably not, in most cases I back the home team too. However, they can do us a favour by scrapping a draw or even nick a win. Either way, the fact they’re 4 points off with an opportunity to win 2 6-pointers means their destiny is in their hands and can’t be fully discounted. Besides...

Our win % for the season is 60% so all we need to do is hit our current run rate. The idea that Ipswich and Boro will increase their win % from 55% to 80% is a little bit absurd. We did the same thing last season and in 22/23 and in the end we achieved our goals in a relatively comfortable...

If you understand odds, it’s 70-75% we win the league, 90% we finish top 2. Boro and Ipswich play each other so someone will drop points in that game. With 11 games left to play, 6 are at home where our win % is 75% and we’ve lost 3 games in 32 under Lampard. Maintaining home and away PPG takes...

We’ve been more direct since Onyeka has come through the door. Seems like a deliberate change in tactics from Lampard because we went from having 50%+ possession to 35-45% barring Stoke at home where we were chasing a 2nd goal until the end. What’s good about this team is that we can be counter...

We had a bad run which happens to most teams, even at the top of this run. We’ve pretty much boxed off all the tough away games and at home we’ve got a 75% win record and have lost a handful of games at home under Lampard. Home form was never an issue during the time we ‘fucked it up’.

Why so pedantic? They nearly pissed on our parade and had Rudoni not scored a winner, we’d only be 3 points ahead and cue more panic.

Millwall play Boro and Ipswich so they could genuinely be in the conversation for an automatic berth. It’s unlikely but hopefully the 3 below us knock bells out of each other. If we beat Bristol and PNE, we’re looking too strong and could afford to draw to Southampton. Although, why couldn’t we...

Confident of a win here, Bristol lose just as many as they win and their home form is weak. We’ve had the better of them at home over the last few years but haven’t had the greatest of times travelling to Ashton Gate.

There aren’t easy games in championship, to use that cliche. That said, Hull’s home record is middling and it’s a game we need to be targeting a win from. If we take the lead against them, we’ll be fine.

I don’t think we’ll lose 3 games between now and the end of the season. There’s tough games to come but we’ve played the best teams at home and away. Based on the averages, 2 losses sounds about right but nothing is really standing out to me. Swansea and Hull will be tough but we’ve won at...

Unlike the others, we’ve finished playing our games against the top 4. Yes, we have Hull away but they’re below average at home and they’re probably out of the race for automatics now.

Imagine if we were in Boro’s position… Only 3 points ahead and Ipswich have a game in hand whilst they still need to go Portman Road. The odds that we’ll go up is comfortably 90% from this point, I don’t know why so many people panic like sheep.

I tend to agree but Millwall play both Ipswich and Boro away so they do have a remote chance to piss on their parades. For us, it’s completely optimal because in a situation Millwall beat both teams more or less guarantees we finish in the top 2 because Ipswich and Boro play each other. If we...

The key to their success must be how they set up away from home. Birmingham had the opposite problem where their home form was great up until recently but their away form was awful. Hull’s away form may explain some of the reasons they’re outperforming xG so much. To make a generalised...

I’ll premise this comment by saying I favour us to win most games under Lampard… the only loss I actually foresee is Wrexham and that’s probably on the back of us being promoted by then. That’s a dream scenario, I could see them taking points off Boro and Ipswich, even if it’s 2 draws. It...

It is, which is why I back them to go up with us. They play Boro at home and they both can’t get 3 points from that game. The winner of that game probably goes up with us and I back the home team. Our form speaks for itself too and it’s far better than both of them. With a 75% win record, I’m...

You’re right, reckon I calculated 95 and used the 96 as the ‘to’ beat. Confused.com. 8 wins means that both Ipswich and Boro can only drop points in one game. 9 wins guarantees we go up in every permutation because Ipswich, Millwall and Boro cannot all get to 96+ points because they all play...