Match Thread Coventry City - Southampton Match Thread - Saturday 14th Mar (30 Viewers)

[DazzleTommyDazzle]

I really don't get the "we've won the last six so probably won't win this one" logic...

I think it comes from a similar place to ‘I’ve had heads on the last six coin tosses, so the next one must be tails’

 

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[Otis]

Boro, Ipshit, Hull and Millwall all have gimmes.... us winning on same weekend will be another nail in their collective coffins...

I don't think Boro, Hull and Millwall have gimmes.

West Brom did well against Southampton the other night and Blackburn are absolutely fighting for their lives.

Think the only gimme this weekend is Ipswich v Sheff Weds

 

[shmmeee]

I really don't get the "we've won the last six so probably won't win this one" logic...

Regression toward the mean - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Otis]

I really don't get the "we've won the last six so probably won't win this one" logic...

Surely based on the fact it's rare for a team to win 7 in a row.

 

[colinc]

Regression toward the mean - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

We have only won 7 of the last 14 ie 50%, our average wins for the season Is 62%, so by your reasoning we should win tomorrow.

 

[ProfessorbyGrace]

2-0 to us. Onwards and upwards. 🩵

 

[shmmeee]

Surely based on the fact it's rare for a team to win 7 in a row.

We’ve never done it. First time for everything but each win becomes less likely when you’re on a streak.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

We’ve never done it. First time for everything but each win becomes less likely when you’re on a streak.

You know that’s not true

 

[HuckerbysQuiff]

We won 7 in a row in 1998 FA cup game we drew with Sheffield United was 8th game. Assuming we’ve never won that many back to back league games

 

[fernandopartridge]

Going to be a tough game, they will not come for a draw. We all know that you can lose to almost anyone in this league so you certainly can to a form team like Southampton.

We must expect to be under pressure for part of the game and just have to learn to live with it, Rushworth to the rescue on more than one occasion. We should win, but I would take a draw.

I suspect he'll go with Wright and Eccles for Simms and BTA. I thought Simms earned the chance to keep his place and prefer BTA's hustle and bustle around the box myself. I'd go back to Lati at the back as the defence was not exactly tested on Wednesday night. Think Frank will too.

Singers Corner was a bit quiet on Wednesday. Not surprising really as there was a distinct lack of dramatic tension, particularly in the second half. No excuse this time

They'll come for a win, they need it

 

[richnrg]

We won 7 in a row in 1998 FA cup game we drew with Sheffield United was 8th game. Assuming we’ve never won that many back to back league

Is it actually possible to win more than 2 back-to-back games? After the second game, both 'back's are facing each other, leaving only 'fronts'.

Similarly, why is the 'no U turn' traffic sign shaped like an 'n' ? It should be called an 'n-turn', instead. Imagine travelling forwards in a straight line. If you then proceed in the shape of a 'U' you will carry on in the same direction that you were originally going.

City 2-0 Saints

 

[shmmeee]

You know that’s not true

It absolutely is true. For footballing not statistical reasons though tbf. Players become over confident, opposition sets up more defensively.

Also if you think our streak matters then so does their unbeaten streak.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

It absolutely is true. For footballing not statistical reasons though tbf. Players become over confident, opposition sets up more defensively.

Also if you think our streak matters then so does their unbeaten streak.

It does

 

[fatso]

Yeah. Feel the same

Would be happy with a draw.

Why would anyone in their right mind be happy dropping 2 points at home to a team below us in the league????

I just genuinely dont get it.

 

[Nick]

I think I did more defending Wednesday night than they did tbf.

Was it when people were saying fuck the wasps and council?

 

[quinn1971]

Just as confident for this one as Preston, teams thought they’d worked us out. They haven’t, expect wright to come back in and get a couple, 3-1 cov

 

[wingy]

I think it comes from a similar place to ‘I’ve had heads on the last six coin tosses, so the next one must be tails’

Hhow many have we won, I think since Tank came in long may it continue.

 

[Briles]

Just as confident for this one as Preston, teams thought they’d worked us out. They haven’t, expect wright to come back in and get a couple, 3-1 cov

They kind of had in targeting grimes but hes now protected by the tank

 

[quinn1971]

They kind of had in targeting grimes but hes now protected by the tank

that’s what I mean, wev‘e changed the way we play, teams don’t know what to do against us now

 

[Otis]

Why would anyone in their right mind be happy dropping 2 points at home to a team below us in the league????

I just genuinely dont get it.

A point closer to going up.

Every point matters from here-on in and logic says we can't win all 9 games we have left

And aren't all teams below us in the league? We are top, so everyone is below us. Are you not going to be happy unless we win all 9 games?

So we are going to drop some points somewhere.

 

[wingy]

Hitch wwwhat I mean, wev‘e changed the way wew play, teams don’t know what to do against us now

Variation is hard to predict, which a good tool to have.

 

[Gynnsthetonic]

Can't stop thinking about the game, literally can't wait

 

[Johhny Blue]

I think it comes from a similar place to ‘I’ve had heads on the last six coin tosses, so the next one must be tails’

Lots of roulette players double their stake and play red or black until they win (or chicken out)

 

[fatso]

A point closer to going up.

Every point matters from here-on in and logic says we can't win all 9 games we have left

And aren't all teams below us in the league? We are top, so everyone is below us.

So we are going to drop some points somewhere.

Surely we should at least be trying/hoping to win every match? Its possible of course that we won't win every match, but to say you'd be "HAPPY" to not win a home game is insane!

For me, id be happy to win tomorrow and for Middlesbrough, Millwall and Ipswich to drop 2 points each.

I think its their fans who would be happy to see us drop 2 points, not our own ffs!!!

 

[Otis]

Surely we should at least be trying/hoping to win every match? Its possible of course that we won't win every match, but to say you'd be "HAPPY" to not win a home game is insane!

For me, id be happy to win tomorrow and for Middlesbrough, Millwall and Ipswich to drop 2 points each.

I think its their fans who would be happy to see us drop 2 points, not our own ffs!!!

Not insane at all to my mind, because I think there is a possibility we could very well lose the match.

If we lose tomorrow, I am sure you would have been happy with a point..

As I have said several times, it's very unlikely we are just going to keep winning. FL has said so himself

We will drop points. That is very much the likelihood.

So it's just based on that. We will slip up at some point and because I think this is a game we could possibly lose, I would be happy with a draw.

Makes perfect sense to me

 

[MusicDating]

I honestly don't think Southampton are much of a threat.

Although they are currently unbeaten for the last 9 games, the only team they have faced over this period that are currently in the top half of the table is Watford. Over the last 5 games they haven't played anyone higher that 17th at present.

If you look at their results as a whole, the vast majority of their wins have been against teams in the bottom half of the table which accounts for 11 out of their 14 wins, meaning that, of the 16 games they have played against top half oppositions, they have only won 3.

They are even worse the higher up the table you go with them having yet to beat a team in the current top 5 this season. The only time they have won a game this season against any team in the current top 6 was against Wrexham on the opening day of the season.

They also look more vulnerable on the road too with them having dropped points against Pompey and West Brom away in their current unbeaten run.

Plus, we owe them one for saying mean things about Super-Frank at their place and getting us fined.

Good analysis, hadn't realised that tbh.

Their away record against the top half is particularly poor...

 

[fatso]

Not insane at all to my mind, because I think there is a possibility we could very well lose the match.

If we lose tomorrow, I am sure you would have been happy with a point..

As I have said several times, it's very unlikely we are just going to keep winning. FL has said so himself

We will drop points. That is very much the likelihood.

So it's just based on that. We will slip up at some point and because I think this is a game we could possibly lose, I would be happy with a draw.

Makes perfect sense to me

Well id be happy with a win, and I see no reason why we shouldn't get the 3 points.

I hope its me thats happy at full time rather than you.

 

[Chris1987]

Lots of roulette players double their stake and play red or black until they win (or chicken out)

But that's at evens .. Different

 

[Otis]

Well id be happy with a win, and I see no reason why we shouldn't get the 3 points.

I hope its me thats happy at full time rather than you.

Same.

Though I would be happy with a win or a draw and you would only be happy with a win.

 

[Johhny Blue]

But that's at evens .. Different

The point I was addressing was “heads” or “tails”

 

[Johhny Blue]

Same.

Though I would be happy with a win or a draw and you would only be happy with a win.

Here’s a little song I wrote
I want to sing it note for note………..

 

[wingy]

Ecstatic with a win, okay with a draw,is that different or the same as Fatso's comment?