10 more wins does it (38 Viewers)
- Thread starter Saddlebrains
- Start date
Lamps
Well-Known Member
He'll be gone for a Burton if it continuesShocking performance from Collins for Burton yesterday.
Wasn't on Saturday lol
COVKIDSNEVERQUIT
Well-Known Member
Looking at the timing in the morning when you posted this, are you suffering from insomnia.
alexccfc99
Well-Known Member
Every tournament year I have a tenner on the Cov Promotion England to lift the trophy double
2018 we obvs got promoted at pretty short odds from L2, and England lost the semis (Albeit I think we would have been steamrolled by that particular France side in the final)
2020 come even closer, albeit I had to wait an extra year for the outcome as Euro 2020 was postponed, I stood to win about £600 on that bet as due to the summer turmoil of moving grounds and clubs like Sunderland and Ipswich being in the League we were very good odds to go up that season, and we fudged up the penalties in the final
2022 did not place it due to the World Cup being mid season
Shorter odds of 35/1 this year but third time lucky
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
2030 could be a very good year for us then...Every tournament year I have a tenner on the Cov Promotion England to lift the trophy double
2018 we obvs got promoted at pretty short odds from L2, and England lost the semis (Albeit I think we would have been steamrolled by that particular France side in the final)
2020 come even closer, albeit I had to wait an extra year for the outcome as Euro 2020 was postponed, I stood to win about £600 on that bet as due to the summer turmoil of moving grounds and clubs like Sunderland and Ipswich being in the League we were very good odds to go up that season, and we fudged up the penalties in the final
2022 did not place it due to the World Cup being mid season
Shorter odds of 35/1 this year but third time lucky
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Will be high if everyone keeps winning
Unlikely though
skybluecam
Well-Known Member
On what basis?
Ipswich would need 30 points from 13 games. 10 wins or 9 wins 3 draws. And 7 of those are away.
marrrkjay_ccfc
Well-Known Member
Latest projected table for the top 6 after Boro's win tonight:
In this projection, Ipswich pick up 4 points from their 2 games in hand and draw their game with Boro.
Rich (BB code):
Pos Team Played W D L Pts Status 1 Coventry City 46 27 10 9 91 Champions (P) 2 Middlesbrough 46 25 11 10 86 Promoted (P) 3 Ipswich Town 46 24 12 10 84 Play-offs 4 Millwall 46 23 10 13 79 Play-offs 5 Hull City 46 23 8 15 77 Play-offs 6 Wrexham 46 20 14 12 74 Play-offs
In this projection, Ipswich pick up 4 points from their 2 games in hand and draw their game with Boro.
Lamps
Well-Known Member
Unlikely? More like impossible
Not many games to go, but out of those remaining games there's a lot of top 6 fixtures. We only have to play 2 of the 5. The others have 3 and 4 for Hull. Coventry
Hull A
Wrexham H
Middlesbrough
Millwall H
Ipswich A
Wrexham A
Millwall
Hull A
Ipswich A
Middlesbrough A
Ipswich
Hull H
Millwall H
Middlesbrough H
Hull
Ipswich A
Millwall H
Wrexham A (their next 3 games)
Coventry H
Wrexham
Hull H
Coventry A
Middlesbrough H
I honestly think they are capable of that. Not saying definitely, but if we want to guarantee (this being the key word) promotion 90 is needed I think
Kingokings204
Well-Known Member
it won’t be 90 points for promotion imo. 90 points might secure the title but more high 80’s. 6 wins would do it. Maybe even 5.
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Lamps
Well-Known Member
5 wins 6 defeats for Middlesbrough would put them on 81 points. 7 wins 6 defeats for Ipswich would put them on 81 points.
The Stoke owners are billionaires for a reason and it isn't their business acumen. If it was, Stoke would be doing well in the Prem with the hundreds of millions they have put into the club just to be perennial bottom half Championship strugglers.
I haven't made a prediction on how many points we need because it changes every week. We're in a great position knowing we have a 5 points plus GD against our closest rivals even if Ipswich win their games in hand. April 18th is Ipswich v Middlesbrough. That's an extra advantage. All we can do is keep winning games and putting the pressure on them.
Would anyone be surprised if we have another game like Stoke where they have a shot on target that goes in and an invisible forcefield keeps the ball out of their net? Could well happen to the other two as well.
lord_garrincha
Well-Known Member
There will be twists & turns. Pressure makes people do funny things.
Remember the misery of travelling to Plymouth over easter... then hearing Boro lost to Weds... these things will happen.
At least for this run-in... we don't have Collins, Binks or Lati at RB!
Remember the misery of travelling to Plymouth over easter... then hearing Boro lost to Weds... these things will happen.
At least for this run-in... we don't have Collins, Binks or Lati at RB!
SafeAsMilk
Active Member
With each game the number to play counts down and each three points feels like four … squared… not quite confident on the science
skybluelee
Well-Known Member
High 70s for autos? You think if we win 2 draw 2 and lose 7 we're finishing 2nd?
I think he meant high 80s
Kingokings204
Well-Known Member
yeah apologies. High 80’s…. So 5 wins would be 86 points. That would be enough for a top 2 imo. It’s a great position to be in
StrettoBoy
Well-Known Member
We mustn’t get overconfident.
Over the last ten matches Middlesborough have averaged 2.3 ppg, with 7 wins, 2 draws and the loss against us. If they maintain that form to the end of the season - and I appreciate that it is a big if and that they still have to play Ipswich - they will end up with 91 points. I think Ipswich are capable of achieving that as well.
I suspect that they won’t both get that many points but if we get less than 88-90 it could be squeaky bum time.
Over the last ten matches Middlesborough have averaged 2.3 ppg, with 7 wins, 2 draws and the loss against us. If they maintain that form to the end of the season - and I appreciate that it is a big if and that they still have to play Ipswich - they will end up with 91 points. I think Ipswich are capable of achieving that as well.
I suspect that they won’t both get that many points but if we get less than 88-90 it could be squeaky bum time.
Ccfcisparks
Well-Known Member
Stop panicking!!We mustn’t get overconfident.
Over the last ten matches Middlesborough have averaged 2.3 ppg, with 7 wins, 2 draws and the loss against us. If they maintain that form to the end of the season - and I appreciate that it is a big if and that they still have to play Ipswich - they will end up with 91 points. I think Ipswich are capable of achieving that as well.
I suspect that they won’t both get that many points but if we get less than 88-90 it could be squeaky bum time.
StrettoBoy
Well-Known Member
I’m not - at least not yet - but I do think that some of the predictions that we only need about 85 points are potentially too optimistic.
With the recent recovery in our form I am fairly sure that we will make it, even if only in second place. The title would be nice but it’s not particularly important to me.
skybluelee
Well-Known Member
Last 9 we've picked up 19 at 2.1 ppg. Keep that up and we'll finish on 94. So Middlesbrough better buck up their ideas.We mustn’t get overconfident.
Over the last ten matches Middlesborough have averaged 2.3 ppg, with 7 wins, 2 draws and the loss against us. If they maintain that form to the end of the season - and I appreciate that it is a big if and that they still have to play Ipswich - they will end up with 91 points. I think Ipswich are capable of achieving that as well.
I suspect that they won’t both get that many points but if we get less than 88-90 it could be squeaky bum time.
skybluebristol
Well-Known Member
100% the 17th
skybluebristol
Well-Known Member
What's the underlying data feeding into this? I can't find the original post.
I've said all along we'll need 90, you can't use the PPG over the whole season as form is different now to what it was at the start.
This is a rough calculation, but if you take Ipswich and Boro:
Boro 11 games left - previous 11 games (W7 D2 L2) = 23 pts - add to what they have now 66 pts = 89pts
Ipswich 13 games left - previous 13 games (W9 D1 L3) = 28 pts - add to what they have now 60 pts = 88pts
Now of course this doesn't take into account the difficulty of the previous 11 fixtures to the remaining 11, and they do still have to play each other (draw in that would be perfect) but I just don't think that a mid-80s points total will be enough.
Edit: FWIW I do think we'll get past 90 points, so no need to shit the bed
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Northants Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Can we please just win it and add another notch on this!! 
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Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
2.3 ppg last 10 but 1.88 for the season… I don’t think they’ll maintain 2.3 for the next 11 games.We mustn’t get overconfident.
Over the last ten matches Middlesborough have averaged 2.3 ppg, with 7 wins, 2 draws and the loss against us. If they maintain that form to the end of the season - and I appreciate that it is a big if and that they still have to play Ipswich - they will end up with 91 points. I think Ipswich are capable of achieving that as well.
I suspect that they won’t both get that many points but if we get less than 88-90 it could be squeaky bum time.
If we match our season form, we’ll hit 93 points (2 ppg from remaining 11) and Boro need to go 2.5 ppg to hit 94. If they do that, they deserve to win the league and knock Ipswich out of the running too.
For context, 2.5 ppg for them looks like 9-1-1 from their remaining games. If we win 8 games out of 11 (unlikely to be fair), Boro have to be flawless (as do Ipswich) and both can’t be flawless because they play each other. We’re not even at 2.5 ppg at home and it’s been near perfect.
We’ve just got to go out there, win 4-6 of our home games, and pick up a win or two on the road. Our away schedule isn’t that scary, Hull’s home record is below par, Watford will (potentially) be in the beach for the final day and our most difficult game on paper is Swansea.
Our home form will be tested because Derby, Wrexham, Southampton are all decent on the road but we’ve beaten Millwall, Boro and drew to Hull who are the best teams away from home.
KenilworthSkyBlue
Well-Known Member
It's funny as ask me a few weeks back and I would've said the same about our home form being our crutch to promotion however our away fixtures are far more favourable.
As you've mentioned Hull's home form is seriously letting them down, Watford haven't been great at the Hawthorns for a while now, Blackburn shouldn't be overly difficult given their league position, and Bristol are pretty middle of the road in terms of form.
I'm not even that concerned with Swansea to be honest. If you actually look at their run at home over the past 10 games it's been very favourable. 5 out of their 7 wins from the past 10 have been against sides in the bottom 6.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Home form is always a crutch because it’s rare for most promoted teams to hit 2 ppg in away form. The magic numbers is 2.3 ppg at home and 1.8 ppg away or thereabouts.
Boro has the best away form in the division and even they’re at 1.72 and while their home form is good, just not as good as Ipswich or us.
We’re tracking just shy of Leeds home form last season of 58 points and should beat Burnley’s (24/25), Leeds, Leicester and Ipswich (23/24) tally of 52-54 points. At the current run rate of 2.47 ppg at home, we should hit 56-58 points which is 4-2-0 or 5-0-1.
I’ll try to eyeball our remaining home games:
PNE - W
Southampton - D
Derby - W
Sheff Wednesday - W
Portsmouth - W
Wrexham - D
If we secure promotion at Blackburn/Pompey, then think we’ll lose to Wrexham and to be honest, I actually back us to beat Southampton but can see us drawing to Derby.
KenilworthSkyBlue
Well-Known Member
I more mean crutch from now until the end of the season. We've placed a lot of emphasis on our home form seeing us through this final stretch, and quite rightly given our record there since FL arrived, but it's certainly going to be tested over the coming weeks.
Wrexham and Southampton are going to be particularly tough given their form. Derby aren't too bad on the road and Portsmouth have shown a bit of fight recently with their form picking up, especially away.
It's pointless trying to predict results as it just will rarely materialise how you think. The fact is, we need to make sure we capitalise on a relatively favourable away fixtures if we're to clinch autos.
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
…and yet we’re still top.We mustn’t get overconfident.
Over the last ten matches Middlesborough have averaged 2.3 ppg, with 7 wins, 2 draws and the loss against us. If they maintain that form to the end of the season - and I appreciate that it is a big if and that they still have to play Ipswich - they will end up with 91 points. I think Ipswich are capable of achieving that as well.
I suspect that they won’t both get that many points but if we get less than 88-90 it could be squeaky bum time.
Senior Vick from Alicante
Well-Known Member
The good thing this time of the year is to make autos you need to get 3 points from a game. With all the games to play amongst the top 6 you will not get many draws. Both teams will need the points and will want a positive outcome which should mean open and expansive football games. I would be more worried about playing any of the 6 teams above Sheffield Wednesday who are actually scrapping for survival, they will often set up not lose which is a harder proposition to face this time of the year. I think we will be ok with 87 points if that helps.
Spot on, we’ve got 6 teams in the top 11 to play, I’d prefer that to teams like Norwich Oxford or QPR who we struggled against, we couldn’t have a better run in