Do you want to discuss boring politics? (38 Viewers)

[eastwoodsdustman]

dont selloff council houses and build more

Didn't Ms Raynor say that There are enough houses in the country apparently, just not the ones people want.

 

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[LarryGrayson]

Didn't Ms Raynor say that There are enough houses in the country apparently, just not the ones people want.

if so might be right seems you can get four bed detached all over the place whenever there built but where are the two bed terraces in villages to keep the kids there when they leave home so needs the state to takeover

 

[fernandopartridge]

The whole Idea of the welfare state was to help people through short term hard times. It wasn't set up as a lifestyle which for some (too many in my eyes) people it has clearly become.
Currently it promotes a dependance on the state and a care free attitude that someone will pay for their life choices from cradle to grave. Most of us know of at least one person or family who have never worked and have no intention of doing so.

This stuff has been said for about 30 years if not longer. That long term unemployment rate isn't that high in the UK and is below the OECD average.

I grew up on a council estate and genuinely don't recall anybody among my neighbours then who fitted that description. I certainly don't know of anybody now who does.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Well they do because some people want to cut off all support as a punishment for not finding work quickly enough.

That’s for people who have to look to work. Just under half of UC do not need to look for work? Therefore, their entitlement does get cut. IMO, this raise is disturbing, do you agree?

I’m all too aware of Elon’s favourite argument. My point is that if the stakes for you are as high as *civilisational collapse*, you should have a very very good reason for opposing policies that would incentivise people to have more children.

The alternative explanation is that you’re not so much interested in “building families” as you are filtering out certain kinds.

Your priorities are lopsided because if we got these people into work, they’d get all the support they need. It’s about creating incentives…

Can you show the workings that show how somebody receiving UC can receive more than somebody working full time on minimum wage?

I’m glad you asked:

When you take NI and IC tax from a minimum wage worker, they come out with 22.5k, sickness benefit will give a claimant 25k. For a lot people, the marginal gain of going out to work is minimal.

Understand this too, the driver for these increases are on mental health, particularly 18-24 year olds. Most of these people are working age and able to work and GPs regularly encourage social interaction rather than isolation. There isn’t a massive cohort of people who are severely sick that cannot work.

Access Restricted

 

[LarryGrayson]

This stuff has been said for about 30 years if not longer. That long term unemployment rate isn't that high in the UK and is below the OECD average.

I grew up on a council estate and genuinely don't recall anybody among my neighbours then who fitted that description. I certainly don't know of anybody now who does.

i no one they live in a shitole id lick better for myself dont envy him

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

This stuff has been said for about 30 years if not longer. That long term unemployment rate isn't that high in the UK and is below the OECD average.

I grew up on a council estate and genuinely don't recall anybody among my neighbours then who fitted that description. I certainly don't know of anybody now who does.

The unemployment rate doesn’t include people of sickness benefits so taking the unemployment rate at face value is deeply flawed. Bearing in mind that includes people with mild anxiety or depression, that’s a lot of people being under the radar.

In reality, unemployment is more like 15%. It’s a massive issue and we’re an outlier of comparative G7 or G20 countries.

 

[eastwoodsdustman]

This stuff has been said for about 30 years if not longer. That long term unemployment rate isn't that high in the UK and is below the OECD average.

I grew up on a council estate and genuinely don't recall anybody among my neighbours then who fitted that description. I certainly don't know of anybody now who does.

I still live on the estate that I grew up on (I'm 54) and it was originally part council part self owned. I know of at least 2 families who have never worked and that includes their now adult kids as well as other single adults who have no inclination to work.
I also have some distant relatives living in the city who have never worked and their kids are now in their 50's with families doing the same.
It is a cycle and it is a problem and has been for a very long time.

 

[wingy]

The unemployment rate doesn’t include people of sickness benefits so taking the unemployment rate at face value is deeply flawed. Bearing in mind that includes people with mild anxiety or depression, that’s a lot of people being under the radar.

In reality, unemployment is more like 15%. It’s a massive issue and we’re an outlier of comparative G7 or G20 countries.

If this exists at all then it was permitted by Cameron and George, I can't remember if Bliar and his crew implemented it, quite likely.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

i no one they live in a shitole id lick better for myself dont envy him

Lay off the booze mate

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

If this exists at all then it was permitted by Cameron and George, I can't remember if Bliar and his crew implemented it, quite likely.

A lot of the ills we face today stem from New Labour and compounded by the Cameron years.

Both parties deserve to be consigned to the dustbin of history.

 

[fernandopartridge]

A lot of the ills we face today stem from New Labour and compounded by the Cameron years.

Both parties deserve to be consigned to the dustbin of history.

Actually, it was Maggie Thatcher that decided that it was a price worth paying when she allowed entire industries to be closed down

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Actually, it was Maggie Thatcher that decided that it was a price worth paying when she allowed entire industries to be closed down

Her legacy on that front certainly has a lot to answer for. That does not absolve the Blair and Cameron years.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Her legacy on that front certainly has a lot to answer for. That does not absolve the Blair and Cameron years.

They were merely continuing what she started.

 

[chiefdave]

Creating generational dependency on welfare does not lift people out of poverty.

Not sure the outcomes for kids growing up in poverty are great. If you punish kids for the actions of their parents you're just doomed to repeat the cycle.

Now if you want to argue over the best ways to lift those kids out of poverty and improve outcomes that's a whole different argument.

I have no qualms with people claiming for a short period of time when tough times fall but have a massive issue funding idle families. This is the big shift post-COVID, most people on UC were in work pre-COVID (like many of my friends and family) but now this is 35% of claimants.

To translate this to the real world how would you distinguish who is idle and who has a genuine need, bearing in mind not all genuine needs are short term and there are people who have many years of contributing in who now find themselves unable to work over the long term through no fault of their own?

As for an increase in sick people post-covid do you not think there could be a connection there? There's reports that 3% of the population have long covid, that can be totally debilitating. Friend of mine, who was very much contributing in as a lawyer, was fit as anything, running marathons for fun and that kind of thing. Got a mild case of covid and now, several years on, struggles to make it down the stairs unassisted. I'm sure they aren't the only one.

Right now, with the UC rises, an unemployed person can earn more than someone on minimum wage.

IMO this is more of an issue with wages than benefits. We've got huge numbers of people in work needing benefits to try and survive. I don't believe anyone in full time employment should be struggling to cover the basics.

Understand this too, the driver for these increases are on mental health, particularly 18-24 year olds. Most of these people are working age and able to work and GPs regularly encourage social interaction rather than isolation. There isn’t a massive cohort of people who are severely sick that cannot work.

After 15 years of decimating youth mental health services in the name of austerity we now have an increase in the number of young people struggling with mental health issues. Could there possibly be some link?

Think it's very easy to point at certain sectors of society and label them undeserving of support or an economic drain. It's far harder to put things in place that both don't have knock on effects, such as increase in crime, and don't end up including people who should be getting all the help they need.

 

[Grendel]

The

Actually, it was Maggie Thatcher that decided that it was a price worth paying when she allowed entire industries to be closed down

The coal mining industry was far more hit by the Labour government. She just delivered the final nail in an already created coffin

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

What’s ’logical’ here? I’d rather accept an aging population than importing hundreds of thousands or even millions of low income, low net worth individuals who will be a net-drain. So too would the electorate, no one voted for 900k immigration per year.

So your answer is 'let the elderly suffer?"

You'd rather let our old people in need of care and support suffer and left to rot just so you don't have to see immigrants.

 

[fernandopartridge]

The


The coal mining industry was far more hit by the Labour government. She just delivered the final nail in an already created coffin

 

[wingy]

So your answer is 'let the elderly suffer?"

You'd rather let our old people in need of care and support suffer and left to rot just so you don't have to see immigrants.

I think that's the reality of his tenet of his position,?

 

[Grendel]

View attachment 47441

I was going from this

Pit Closures

A Tribute to Philip Healey, the Mines Rescue Brigade and coal miners everywhere

www.healeyhero.co.uk

 

[Grendel]

The other thing I didn’t realise was that although the horrific Beeching Report was commissioned by McMillan it was Wilson who acted with zeal to decimate the railways

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Is Rachel Reeves in serious trouble after being caught out in a lie about ‘the black hole’…?

Turns out there was no reason to raise taxes after all.

 

[StrettoBoy]

Is Rachel Reeves in serious trouble after being caught out in a lie about ‘the black hole’…?

Turns out there was no reason to raise taxes after all.

She should resign but I doubt if she will.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Not sure the outcomes for kids growing up in poverty are great. If you punish kids for the actions of their parents you're just doomed to repeat the cycle.

Now if you want to argue over the best ways to lift those kids out of poverty and improve outcomes that's a whole different argument.

To translate this to the real world how would you distinguish who is idle and who has a genuine need, bearing in mind not all genuine needs are short term and there are people who have many years of contributing in who now find themselves unable to work over the long term through no fault of their own?

As for an increase in sick people post-covid do you not think there could be a connection there? There's reports that 3% of the population have long covid, that can be totally debilitating. Friend of mine, who was very much contributing in as a lawyer, was fit as anything, running marathons for fun and that kind of thing. Got a mild case of covid and now, several years on, struggles to make it down the stairs unassisted. I'm sure they aren't the only one.

IMO this is more of an issue with wages than benefits. We've got huge numbers of people in work needing benefits to try and survive. I don't believe anyone in full time employment should be struggling to cover the basics.

After 15 years of decimating youth mental health services in the name of austerity we now have an increase in the number of young people struggling with mental health issues. Could there possibly be some link?

Think it's very easy to point at certain sectors of society and label them undeserving of support or an economic drain. It's far harder to put things in place that both don't have knock on effects, such as increase in crime, and don't end up including people who should be getting all the help they need.

This is a bad take Dave and the neither the stats nor the numerous anecdotal evidence support this. If people don’t think there are large numbers gaming/maximising the system they’re naive. here’s a couple of stats from DWP….

‘4.4 million people in England and Wales claimed an incapacity or disability benefit in February 2025, an increase of 9% from February 2024 (I think it was 2.8-3m 2019).

Between February 2013 and February 2020, the number of benefit claimants in Great Britain remained stable at around 20.0 to 21.0 million. The economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic led to a sharp rise, with the number of claimants peaking at 23.0 million in February 2021. Although this figure initially fell to 22.4 million by February 2022, it has gradually increased since reaching 24.0 million in February 2025, the highest level since the series began in 2013’ - pension age claimants between 2019 and 2025 broadly unchanged at around 13m

Today, fewer than 10% of Pip assessments take place in person. PIP isn’t means tested

There is loads more data to back this up and it’s meaning there’s ultimately less for people working their arses off who aren’t taking the piss and those genuinely in need.

 

[SBAndy]

This is a bad take Dave and the neither the stats nor the numerous anecdotal evidence support this. If people don’t think there are large numbers gaming/maximising the system they’re naive. here’s a couple of stats from DWP….

‘4.4 million people in England and Wales claimed an incapacity or disability benefit in February 2025, an increase of 9% from February 2024 (I think it was 2.8-3m 2019).

Between February 2013 and February 2020, the number of benefit claimants in Great Britain remained stable at around 20.0 to 21.0 million. The economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic led to a sharp rise, with the number of claimants peaking at 23.0 million in February 2021. Although this figure initially fell to 22.4 million by February 2022, it has gradually increased since reaching 24.0 million in February 2025, the highest level since the series began in 2013’ - pension age claimants between 2019 and 2025 broadly unchanged at around 13m

Today, fewer than 10% of Pip assessments take place in person. PIP isn’t means tested

There is loads more data to back this up and it’s meaning there’s ultimately less for people working their arses off who aren’t taking the piss and those genuinely in need.

As with many things, I think the truth/the solution lies somewhere in the middle. No one wants to see genuinely incapacitated people struggling to make ends meet, but equally we don’t want people taking the piss. Means testing all benefits is an additional cost and would take a huge amount of time invested to understand someone’s personal circumstances, whether their incapacity prevents them from doing *any* work and whether it’s something that is permanent or temporary. I’d be in favour of the above personally but clearly there’s limitations, and I think Treasury brain thinking means they weigh up the cost of administering the means testing vs the cost of making it a blanket benefit, rather than thinking about the economic multiplier effect that comes about through work.

Equally, though, you’d then get the scare stories of a 60 year old with no legs having to go to a meeting to justify that they can’t work.

As said, I like MMB’s example of adjusting the PTA but wouldn’t want benefits removed altogether. Could you tier that so that, if you’re in work, you effectively get more of a benefit? I don’t know, and it is counterintuitive because someone with additional income shouldn’t get additional help (theoretically).

 

[SBT]

‘4.4 million people in England and Wales claimed an incapacity or disability benefit in February 2025, an increase of 9% from February 2024 (I think it was 2.8-3m 2019).

Has there been an official explanation for the factors behind the increase?

 

[CCFCSteve]

As with many things, I think the truth/the solution lies somewhere in the middle. No one wants to see genuinely incapacitated people struggling to make ends meet, but equally we don’t want people taking the piss. Means testing all benefits is an additional cost and would take a huge amount of time invested to understand someone’s personal circumstances, whether their incapacity prevents them from doing *any* work and whether it’s something that is permanent or temporary. I’d be in favour of the above personally but clearly there’s limitations, and I think Treasury brain thinking means they weigh up the cost of administering the means testing vs the cost of making it a blanket benefit, rather than thinking about the economic multiplier effect that comes about through work.

Equally, though, you’d then get the scare stories of a 60 year old with no legs having to go to a meeting to justify that they can’t work.

As said, I like MMB’s example of adjusting the PTA but wouldn’t want benefits removed altogether. Could you tier that so that, if you’re in work, you effectively get more of a benefit? I don’t know, and it is counterintuitive because someone with additional income shouldn’t get additional help (theoretically).

There has got to be a better way and surely it’s not beyond the whit of man/woman to solely focus on those with minor disabilities/mental health first and work back from there.

I only added the means testing comment to indicate there’s likely to be wastage there as well ie people who compared to others don’t really need the extra financial assistance. I’d rather this cash be directly into health/social care system. My mum was set up to receive pip when she was battling terminal cancer, I’d have preferred better social care/support

The main point though is the significant increase in numbers claiming benefits in a short space of time. The data doesnt stack up

 

[CCFCSteve]

Has there been an official explanation for the factors behind the increase?

Just googled

AI Overview


In February 2025, 4.4 million people in England and Wales claimed an incapacity or disability benefit, marking a 9% increase from February 2024
. This rise is influenced by various factors, including the aftermath of the pandemic, a rise in mental health conditions among claimants, and the overall nature of the benefit system.

 

[SBT]

Just googled

AI Overview


In February 2025, 4.4 million people in England and Wales claimed an incapacity or disability benefit, marking a 9% increase from February 2024
. This rise is influenced by various factors, including the aftermath of the pandemic, a rise in mental health conditions among claimants, and the overall nature of the benefit system.

So no then?

 

[CCFCSteve]

So no then?

As it states, mental health claims, left over issues from pandemic (although the dip and then increase in total claimants suggest there’s something else at play) and ‘the system’

Here’s some more but feel free to dig up some data/info that supports that the system is fine as it is

Mental ill-health is behind soaring disability benefits bill in England and Wales, report says

Institute for Fiscal Studies says half of the rise in working-age people claiming the benefit last year is linked to mental health

www.theguardian.com

The number of people receiving disability benefits for anxiety has surged to a record level, according to a leading think tank.

Well over half a million people are now claiming Personal Independence Payments (PIP) for anxiety and mood disorders, analysis of new data by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) reveals. Almost 250 people with anxiety and mood disorders were awarded PIP every day.

 

[SBT]

As it states, mental health claims, left over issues from pandemic (although the dip and then increase in total claimants suggest there’s something else at play) and ‘the system’

Here’s some more but feel free to dig up some data/info that supports that the system is fine as it is

It’s not a leading question, I am honestly wondering if there has been an official explanation for the rise. If all we have is Google Gemini and the IFS then it appears we don’t. I’m personally not sure why mental health claims would spike like that.

 

[PVA]

Polanski massively out of his depth when questioned on fairly basic stuff

 

[CCFCSteve]

It’s not a leading question, I am honestly wondering if there has been an official explanation for the rise. If all we have is Google Gemini and the IFS then it appears we don’t. I’m personally not sure why mental health claims would spike like that.

It’s bordering on impossible to get clear, unbiased data on the internet and I’m very careful with what I post which is why the original post info was direct from DWP

I can give you a personal opinion though. Mental health is the most difficult disability to accurately detect/assess and therefore the easiest to abuse for benefits. For example how do you assess whether someone is genuine, can barely leave the house due to anxiety or just trying to get a few quid extra or thinks their condition is worse than it is when actually operating a normal life would help them, from a phone call/online assessment ?

 

[Captain Dart]

Polanski massively out of his depth when questioned on fairly basic stuff

Zack's magic money tree philosophy.

He doesn't realise the politicians are the tail and the money men are the dog. The tail does not wag the dog.

 

[Grendel]

Someone is off the Christmas Card list

Reeves' uncle attacks Budget for 'benefits people'

Rachel Reeves' Tory-supporting uncle Terry Smith, 73, has attacked his niece's Budget for 'benefits people' -declaring: 'I feel she and the government are totally out of their depth'.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[skybluetony176]

Zack's magic money tree philosophy.

He doesn't realise the politicians are the tail and the money men are the dog. The tail does not wag the dog.

Do you think he’s wrong for wanting to change that status quo?