Championship thread 25/26! (18 Viewers)

[David O'Day]

I still don't understand this 'underlying numbers' & XG bollocks - it's football not maths

XG is football though, they have databases (the ones the pros use now have millions of shots entered into them) where they look back at as many examples of the same kind of chance ~(location, situation etc.) and then give it a score between 0 and 1 based on on how many players in their database scored a similar chance.

 

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[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Our xG against Norwich was 4.02 to their 0.15. We didn't win that game but if we replayed it 10 times over with the same chances for both sides how many of those do you think we would win?
That was game 5 and back then we were only 3 places above them, now it's 23 places, and the stats in that game reflected that. It was only one game but it was supported by similar stats in our other games against other teams. That's why you need to look at stats over a period of games.

But on that same metric v QPR both teams had a very similar xG. According to that we should have maybe scraped a fortunate win. Reality was we absolutely dominated the game and could (probably should) have scored more

 

[sc1940]

But on that same metric v QPR both teams had a very similar xG. According to that we should have maybe scraped a fortunate win. Reality was we absolutely dominated the game and could (probably should) have scored more

Some of our goals in that game were low Xg but that didn't look correct, hence why you can't reliably use the stats from 1 game, and should look at trends.
We only had 8 shots on target and scored 7 of them, that in itself tells us it was an outlier.
This link shows a breakdown of each goal in that game

Coventry vs QPR - xG Shot Maps - Football - Sporting Life

Get the form, statistics, line ups and live commentary for Coventry vs QPR

www.sportinglife.com

 

[Briles]

 

[SkyBlueStallion_89]

Fuck sake

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Lesta one up

 

[DT-R]

Get in Oxford

Sent from my SM-S711B using Tapatalk

 

[Tommo1993]

Birmingham winning the league again?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Results stay as is please…

 

[Shannerz]

I still don't understand this

I don't think there's a context for the above statement where it would surprise me.

 

[pusbccfc]

Birmingham and Leicester winning

 

[CCFC_Irish]

Hull could do with losing

 

[shmmeee]

Wrexham goal pls

 

[covcity4life]

Birmingham winning the league again?

Put them in my ACCA along with us rangers and Barca. Had a feeling lement not gonna make immediate impact at norwich

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

2-0 Lesta, 3-1 Birmingham

 

[Sky Blue Goblin]

God I hate routing for lesta

 

[shmmeee]

Don’t like the form the money teams are putting together. Was much happier when they were all solidly bottom half.

 

[shmmeee]

God I hate routing for lesta

Short sighted to IMO there’s only 3 points between them as it stands and I’d rather face Stoke as challengers than Leicester.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Don’t like the form the money teams are putting together. Was much happier when they were all solidly bottom half.

I think it was always going to happen at some point but we're in complete control of our destiny

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Don’t like the form the money teams are putting together. Was much happier when they were all solidly bottom half.

Too much quality for them not to, but Stoke losing is good news for us

 

[Tommo1993]

Sticking with Tommy Conway up front will see Boro fall down the table.

 

[shmmeee]

Too much quality for them not to, but Stoke losing is good news for us

Agree to disagree.

 

[Sky Blue Goblin]

Short sighted to IMO there’s only 3 points between them as it stands and I’d rather face Stoke as challengers than Leicester.

There are about to be deducted points tho right? Rumours it’s six so would be 9

 

[shmmeee]

There are about to be deducted points tho right? Rumours it’s six so would be 9

I’ll believe that when I see it on the league table.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Agree to disagree.

Gap to third’s all I care about

 

[covcity4life]

I think it was always going to happen at some point but we're in complete control of our destiny

Too early to say they have all found form also

Soithampton perhaps. But might make them hire caretaker manager but that tends not to work out long term more often than it does

Ipswich still ones to fear. They threatened o go on a streak but then drop pts. Hopefully that happened today

I'm not too concerned about Leicester and prob get a points deduction anyway

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Too early to say they have all found form also

Soithampton perhaps. But might make them hire caretaker manager but that tends not to work out long term more often than it doesn't.

Ipswich still ones to fear. They threatened o go on a streak but then drop pts. Hopefully that happened today

I'm not too concerned about Leicester and prob get a points deduction anyway

Southampton were massively underperforming their xG and made up for it today. Just need to take their chances.

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

Clowns on here wanting Leicester to win, a draw would be the best result

 

[covcity4life]

Southampton were massively underperforming their xG and made up for it today. Just need to take their chances.

Ya I've said similar. But they also the lowest of parachute teams so won't worry too much just yet.

I do wonder if the caretaker is real deal or not. Time will tell

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Ya I've said similar. But they also the lowest of parachute teams so won't worry too much just yet.

I do wonder if the caretaker is real deal or not. Time will tell

I think results were always going to turn for them with the numbers they were putting up, but we’ll see. I’m pleased to get 4 of the 6 parachute games out of the way before January anyway.

Then the remaining two both at home

 

[ptr]

Clowns on here wanting Leicester to win, a draw would be the best result

no it wouldn’t

 

[TomRad85]

Neither Leicester or Stoke are getting anywhere near us.

 

[SBT]

God I hate routing for lesta

I usually just head for the M69 m8

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

no it wouldn’t

How would a draw not be the best result, Stoke aren’t far off and the scum will obviously pick up with the team they have

 

[bigfatronssba]

All we need to do is worry about ourselves. We need about 53 more points from 30 games.

33 points would probably secure the play offs, which for us now would be almost relegation form