Championship thread 25/26! (16 Viewers)

[David O'Day]

I still don't understand this 'underlying numbers' & XG bollocks - it's football not maths

XG is football though, they have databases (the ones the pros use now have millions of shots entered into them) where they look back at as many examples of the same kind of chance ~(location, situation etc.) and then give it a score between 0 and 1 based on on how many players in their database scored a similar chance.

 

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[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Our xG against Norwich was 4.02 to their 0.15. We didn't win that game but if we replayed it 10 times over with the same chances for both sides how many of those do you think we would win?
That was game 5 and back then we were only 3 places above them, now it's 23 places, and the stats in that game reflected that. It was only one game but it was supported by similar stats in our other games against other teams. That's why you need to look at stats over a period of games.

But on that same metric v QPR both teams had a very similar xG. According to that we should have maybe scraped a fortunate win. Reality was we absolutely dominated the game and could (probably should) have scored more

 

[sc1940]

But on that same metric v QPR both teams had a very similar xG. According to that we should have maybe scraped a fortunate win. Reality was we absolutely dominated the game and could (probably should) have scored more

Some of our goals in that game were low Xg but that didn't look correct, hence why you can't reliably use the stats from 1 game, and should look at trends.
We only had 8 shots on target and scored 7 of them, that in itself tells us it was an outlier.
This link shows a breakdown of each goal in that game

Coventry vs QPR - xG Shot Maps - Football - Sporting Life

Get the form, statistics, line ups and live commentary for Coventry vs QPR

www.sportinglife.com