Match Thread Wrexham AFC - Coventry City Match Thread - Friday 31st Oct (43 Viewers)

[DT-R]

@Bugsy in short, @shmmeee did a Gemini summary of teams who were top of the Championship after 12 games. 15/20 were promoted automatically.

Last season, Sunderland were the first team to be top after 12 games and go up via the playoffs.

As a percentage, that’s 76.2% of teams top after 12 games go up. The hype is real and the betting markets have shortened our odds massively.

Crazy the betting markets are adjusting because of Shmmeee's posts! Shhmmeee, have a word and see if you can get us all some decent odds on a 4-1 win on Friday with BTA anytime. Cheers

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[Mucca Mad Boys]

We are a bit light in central midfield but that money for Sheaf looks even better business now.

£6.5m to play around with in January is appealing. We probably should have cashed out on Sheaf in the summer of 2024 but if he’s struggling with injuries/niggles, take what you can and move on.

Parkinson’s quote on Sheaf’s latest injury was concerning, he more or less said he felt something go kicking a ball:

“Ben [Sheaf] is not a major injury at all but he struck a ball in training on Monday and just felt a bit of tightness, just a slight groin strain.”

 

[Otis]

View attachment 46852Theyjust told this community they dont care

Says the fan from Houston Texas

Houston?

We have a problem

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Looks amazing business. He’s never going to make in in the prem unfortunately for him.

Injury problems rearing their head multiple times already this season. The only regret is the timing not allowing us to get a replacement in.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Crazy the betting markets are adjusting because of Shmmeee's posts! Shhmmeee, have a word and see if you can get us all some decent odds on a 4-1 win on Friday with BTA anytime. Cheers

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Hahaha you sausage!

In all seriousness, the betting markets will be well aware of the data and build this into their pricing model.

The reason Ipswich are still second favourites is because the underlying data suggests they’re in a false position and favour McKenna to turn things around. However, Southampton being priced where they are suggests they don’t have faith in Will Still despite the underlying data.

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[David O'Day]

For fuck sake, these are absolutely shite and we should rip them apart. Judging by that performance against a lower league team, this fretting on here makes no sense to me.

I don't want to see any conservative formations either. Go at them with the normal set up. There's no need to go 5 at the back and offer them that much respect. Do our thing and I am sure we are going to leave their fans booing again.

Agree. normal system and they won't have a clue what to do with our big fast and strong forwards

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

£6.5m to play around with in January is appealing. We probably should have cashed out on Sheaf in the summer of 2024 but if he’s struggling with injuries/niggles, take what you can and move on.

Parkinson’s quote on Sheaf’s latest injury was concerning, he more or less said he felt something go kicking a ball.

He felt his balls go more like.

Playing us on Friday, we are top of the league, and he's playing for a bunch of cloggers who's home ground looks like a barn. It must be a bit embarrassing, and the main stand isn't even lined up properly either, which is now another thing people have noticed.

Whilst I wouldn't be at all surprised if he does make a magical appearance in the squad for Friday, and it is true his injury record is appaling, it wouldn't be the first time he's not fancied playing a game. I reckon he really doesn't want to get humiliated further by being on the pitch when they play against us and so he's knocking his injury along a bit.

 

[fatso]

Agree. normal system and they won't have a clue what to do with our big fat and strong forwards

Some tossers would still settle for a draw!

 

[DT-R]

Hahaha you sausage!

In all seriousness, the betting markets will be well aware of the data and build this into their pricing model.

The reason Ipswich are still second favourites is because the underlying data suggests they’re in a false position and favour McKenna to turn things around. However, Southampton being priced where they are suggests they don’t have faith in Will Still despite the underlying data.

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I always thought betting odds were always very much customer led too. The more people backing a horse (or football team) the lower the odds get as a way for the bookies to soften the blow of their losses on it. How much of betting is fact based compared to customer led based I wonder?

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[Chris1987]

Hahaha you sausage!

In all seriousness, the betting markets will be well aware of the data and build this into their pricing model.

The reason Ipswich are still second favourites is because the underlying data suggests they’re in a false position and favour McKenna to turn things around. However, Southampton being priced where they are suggests they don’t have faith in Will Still despite the underlying data.

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The markets are established now due to liabilities held by individual bookmakers . Nothing else. If they get a few big hits on teams like Ipseich they simply lay it off elsewhere. It's a mature market now , not one constructed entirely by odds compliers

 

[shmmeee]

@Bugsy in short, @shmmeee did a Gemini summary of teams who were top of the Championship after 12 games. 15/20 were promoted automatically.

Last season, Sunderland were the first team to be top after 12 games and go up via the playoffs.

As a percentage, that’s 76.2% of teams top after 12 games go up. The hype is real and the betting markets have shortened our odds massively.

If you liked that:


Final Outcome Probabilities Based on League Position (2004/05 - 2024/25)

| Checkpoint | Position Bracket | % Finish in Top 2 | % Finish in Top 6 | % Finish Mid-Table (7-21) | % Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Games
| 1st-2nd | 64.3% | 88.1% | 11.9% | 0.0% |
| | 3rd-6th | 15.5% | 51.2% | 48.8% | 0.0% |
| | 7th-12th | 4.0% | 20.6% | 79.4% | 0.0% |
| | 22nd-24th | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 71.4% |


| 20 Games
| 1st-2nd | 76.2% | 95.2% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| | 3rd-6th | 10.7% | 60.7% | 39.3% | 0.0% |
| | 7th-12th | 1.2% | 13.1% | 85.7% | 1.2% |
| | 22nd-24th | 0.0% | 1.6% | 22.2% | 76.2% |


| 30 Games
| 1st-2nd | 88.1% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| | 3rd-6th | 7.1% | 77.4% | 22.6% | 0.0% |
| | 7th-12th | 0.0% | 11.9% | 88.1% | 0.0% |
| | 22nd-24th | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.5% | 90.5% |
The data clearly illustrates how predictability hardens as the season progresses. After just 15 games, a team in the top two has a strong, but not guaranteed, 64.3% chance of securing automatic promotion. By the 30-game mark, this probability has solidified to a commanding 88.1%, and their chance of at least making the play-offs becomes 100%.

 

[skybluecam]

I know they were chasing the game there Wrexham so inclined to go long, but it really reminded of Parkinson's Bradford team the one we drew 3-3 with. Only they had James Hanson not Moore. That long diagonal ball.

Parkinson might be able to avoid relegation but that's about it. He won't be there next season.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

The markets are established now due to liabilities held by individual bookmakers . Nothing else. If they get a few big hits on teams like Ipseich they simply lay it off elsewhere. It's a mature market now , not one constructed entirely by odds compliers

I always thought betting odds were always very much customer led too. The more people backing a horse (or football team) the lower the odds get as a way for the bookies to soften the blow of their losses on it. How much of betting is fact based compared to customer led based I wonder?

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Betting markets is one of the most data driven industries. How do you even go about setting odds before anyone places money on an outcome?

There will be an element of customer led odds setting because betting markets need to protect themselves and prices need to correct themselves.

I suspect a lot of people felt we were underpriced going into the season (pretty sure we were 5 or 6th favourites) because our form under Lampard was better than Sheff U’s from Xmas last year. Equally, our transfer market activity was relatively muted.

For arguments sake, if there was millions put on Sheff Wednesday to be promoted, the bookies would probably accept that’s an outcome that is about as close to 0% as you can get. There’s even current and historical data to support that.

To demonstrate the point, BTA is now 2nd favourite to be the leagues top scorer by Bet365. I doubt that’s being led by punters. If I was a betting man, I’m backing Haji to outscore BTA and EMC to outscored Sakamoto @fatso

Championship Top Goalscorer Betting Odds (2025/26)

Compare the latest English Championship Top Goalscorer betting odds across 10+ UK bookmakers. We collect real-time odds and show the best and worst top scorer betting odds.

bettinglounge.co.uk

 

[Chris1987]

Betting markets is one of the most data driven industries. How do you even go about setting odds before anyone places money on an outcome?

There will be an element of customer led odds setting because betting markets need to protect themselves and prices need to correct themselves.

I suspect a lot of people felt we were underpriced going into the season (pretty sure we were 5 or 6th favourites) because our form under Lampard was better than Sheff U’s from Xmas last year. Equally, our transfer market activity was relatively muted.

For arguments sake, if there was millions put on Sheff Wednesday to be promoted, the bookies would probably accept that’s an outcome that is about as close to 0% as you can get. There’s even current and historical data to support that.

Gambling bookmakers in the mould of Gary Wilshire/Fearless Freddie Williams simply don't exist anymore. It's all about margins now , nothing else.
Odds compilers are well paid group whose only vulnerable moment is the initial tissue . The advantage that they have now is that it's detailed data driven which is all freely available. The good old days of on track bookies laying off with each other are sadly gone due to the exchanges. The data that's in the public domain now has reduced the opportunities for profit. Hence bookmaker overounds are ridiculous on football markets .

 

[covcity4life]

Parkinson might be able to avoid relegation but that's about it. He won't be there next season.

Agreed

But he's served dhis purpose so was a good appointment

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Parkinson might be able to avoid relegation but that's about it. He won't be there next season.

When the time comes, I imagine Wrexham fans will feel how we did when we sacked Robins. Parkinson has took them from the NL to this point. That loyalty to Parkinson from the owners and fans could well be a source of regret come end of the season.

They’ve spent a lot of money on the players of yesteryear and that strategy will catch up with them.

Serves them right, their fans fully believed they were onboard HMS Piss The League.

 

[Danceswithhorses]

We are a bit light in central midfield but that money for Sheaf looks even better business now.

Sheaf cost Wrexham £6.5m - will be injured for 25% of games every season.
Grimes cost us £3.5m from Swansea - has played over 40 games per season in his last 8 seasons.
Better, fitter player for approx half the cost.

We absolutely mugged both Welsh Championship clubs - great business Doug

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Sheaf cost Wrexham £6.5m - will be injured for 25% of games every season.
Grimes cost us £3.5m from Swansea - has played over 40 games per season in his last 8 seasons.
Better, fitter player for approx half the cost.

We absolutely mugged both Welsh Championship clubs - great business Doug

Very important point on Grimes. His durability is elite, he’s missed about 10 to 15 league games since our league 2 days. I’m just going off appearances so there are games he may have just been rested rather than injured.

With Sheaf, I worry we ran him into the ground because he basically played all the minutes he was available. Given that Eccles has had a run of injuries,
I hope he hasn’t been ran into the ground himself.

 

[Skyblueweeman]

If you liked that:


Final Outcome Probabilities Based on League Position (2004/05 - 2024/25)

| Checkpoint | Position Bracket | % Finish in Top 2 | % Finish in Top 6 | % Finish Mid-Table (7-21) | % Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Games
| 1st-2nd | 64.3% | 88.1% | 11.9% | 0.0% |
| | 3rd-6th | 15.5% | 51.2% | 48.8% | 0.0% |
| | 7th-12th | 4.0% | 20.6% | 79.4% | 0.0% |
| | 22nd-24th | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 71.4% |


| 20 Games
| 1st-2nd | 76.2% | 95.2% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| | 3rd-6th | 10.7% | 60.7% | 39.3% | 0.0% |
| | 7th-12th | 1.2% | 13.1% | 85.7% | 1.2% |
| | 22nd-24th | 0.0% | 1.6% | 22.2% | 76.2% |


| 30 Games
| 1st-2nd | 88.1% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| | 3rd-6th | 7.1% | 77.4% | 22.6% | 0.0% |
| | 7th-12th | 0.0% | 11.9% | 88.1% | 0.0% |
| | 22nd-24th | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.5% | 90.5% |
The data clearly illustrates how predictability hardens as the season progresses. After just 15 games, a team in the top two has a strong, but not guaranteed, 64.3% chance of securing automatic promotion. By the 30-game mark, this probability has solidified to a commanding 88.1%, and their chance of at least making the play-offs becomes 100%.

 

[StrettoBoy]

Done his hamstring pulling up his socks.

It’s quite a risky activity. Ten days ago I pulled my right hamstring when untying my left shoelace. Seriously. It’s b****y painful.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

When the time comes, I imagine Wrexham fans will feel how we did when we sacked Robins. Parkinson has took them from the NL to this point. That loyalty to Parkinson from the owners and fans could well be a source of regret come end of the season.

They’ve spent a lot of money on the players of yesteryear and that strategy will catch up with them.

Serves them right, their fans fully believed they were onboard HMS Piss The League.

Anyone could have taken a team up spending embarrassing amounts of money in the Conference and L1/L2. In this league however the spending has again been absurd but they now have a mid-lower table squad as opposed to a top end one.

He might need to come up with more than praying for Kieffer Moore to win every header.

 

[GC1976]

We are a bit light in central midfield but that money for Sheaf looks even better business now.

We were always light in midfield with his injury record it’s just that our bank balance is now 6.5 million heavier.

 

[Nuskyblue]

J
I'm not a monster either, but am hoping for a couple of ACL's, three hamstring tears, two own goals, a sending off and a vomiting bug rampaging through the camp and this is before we have even reached half time.

This may be Hollywood, but come Friday, I am hoping we are facing the cast of Bugsy Malone and not Braveheart.

Hear hear.

I want their squad to shut themselves inside out.

That is all.

 

[DT-R]

It’s quite a risky activity. Ten days ago I pulled my right hamstring when untying my left shoelace. Seriously. It’s b****y painful.

Im forever pulling out my back doing the most mundane of tasks!

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[Brighton Sky Blue]

Im forever pulling out my back doing the most mundane of tasks!

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@Evo1883 once did his back in doing a much less mundane ‘task’ if memory serves

 

[Frostie]

 

[pusbccfc]

Excellent

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Only lost because it was cardiffs cup
Final

 

[TomRad85]

Brilliant. Sign him up King ffs.

 

[jordan210]

The melt down on their forum is glorious.

 

[Sky Blue Goblin]

Brilliant. Sign him up King ffs.

Didn’t realise he was a shithouse as well.

Just gets better and better