The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (70 Viewers)

[SIR ERNIE]

Carney's 'worst case scenarios' are always designed for tomorrow's front page headlines. Will have little or no effect on the HOC vote.

 

---

[Sick Boy]

Carney's 'worst case scenarios' are always designed for tomorrow's front page headlines. Will have little or no effect on the HOC vote.

If she doesn’t get it through I really can’t see her clinging onto power

 

[martcov]

You made a statement there will be turbulence in the markets regardless - so this deal will mean turbulence

Can you provide some evidence please?

No of course I cannot. It is the general opinion that there would be a dip in the markets if it looks like we are crashing out. I cannot give you the evidence until it happens. But people will be speculating. Even me. I am waiting for a dip in the pound to make my holiday cheaper, but I have no insider knowledge as to who is announcing what.

 

[SIR ERNIE]

If she doesn’t get it through I really can’t see her clinging onto power

Hope you're right but she won't walk, she'll have to be kicked out.

 

[Grendel]

No of course I cannot. It is the general opinion that there would be a dip in the markets if it looks like we are crashing out. I cannot give you the evidence until it happens. But people will be speculating. Even me. I am waiting for a dip in the pound to make my holiday cheaper, but I have no insider knowledge as to who is announcing what.

You said turbulence regardless and a recession either way so please provide evidence to contradict the Bank of England view

Cheers

 

[martcov]

You said turbulence regardless and a recession either way so please provide evidence to contradict the Bank of England view

Cheers

Here is an explanation:

Every kind of Brexit will make people worse off – even if Theresa May says otherwise

 

[Grendel]

Here is an explanation:

Every kind of Brexit will make people worse off – even if Theresa May says otherwise

No that is an opinion made before the BOE statement

The BOE denies under the actual deal this will occur at all and that there will be little if any impact at all

Do you believe the BOE on this? I assume not

Why - haven't the BOE said they will increase growth forecast if it signed?

 

[Captain Dart]

Carney's 'worst case scenarios' are always designed for tomorrow's front page headlines. Will have little or no effect on the HOC vote.

The BBC tend to report a worst case scenario as an accurate & believable forecast when in fact it is extremely unlikely. Quite irresponsible of them,

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Pensions were a big part of the rant. Older generations had the best of them. Your generation had the worse of them. They were your words. You then dropped the point when I said about the tax grab Gordon Brown did on pensions costing the system of final salary pensions.

You said about how you can't trust a Tory. I fully agreed with you. They are for the rich only. The poor and needy are just leppers that cost them tax money. But you don't like anything said against Labour. Yes they are a better bet than the Tories. But how about Corbyn? Let's forget about the skeletons in the closet. How about just keeping it on topic of the thread? He has stated he wants to stay in the EU. He has stated he wants out of the EU. He has stated that he doesn't know if he wants in or out of the EU. That isn't leadership. That is going with the flow. Saying what he thinks people want to hear. He wants to privatise utilities and similar. He wants to bring them back under the government ownership now. Can't do that when in the EU as it is against the rules and regulations.

I have never told you how to vote. I never have and never will. That is a personal choice. But no single party will solve our problems. They solve some but make more. Labour are for higher tax higher benefits. The Tories are for lower tax lower benefits. You take your pick.

You also tried to blame my generation for global warming. It is as though nothing happened until my generation came along. Yet you ignore the fact that your generation has become a throwaway generation. Phones you want to change every time there is a new one out. But your old one still works well. Cheap clothes that travel thousands of miles to get to you that don't last. Plastic containers for everything. New cars on loan. An old car that isn't Co2 efficient is much less polluting than building a new car that lasts just over 10 years that has a more efficient engine. Building an electric car is even more polluting when you consider where the battery comes from and then the generating of the electricity to charge it. Everyone wants a car. We all have a part to play on the matter. No generation is perfect.

This is bizarre-nowhere was I griping about pensions. One of the few remaining perks of education is the pension, so I have no issue with that. What I did say, and there is a mount of evidence supporting it, is that my generation will be the first to be worse off than the one before. The reason for that is surely that the one before ballsed up.

I can also take fair criticism of Labour, I'm not a member and haven't always voted for them. But the reality is we've got a two horse race and there is one party showing contempt for young people and the public sector and another at least trying to do the opposite. Their manifesto had far more attempts at costings than the Conservative one and George Osborne admitted bullshit on the 'Labour crashed the economy' line spread around 2010. Even he couldn't believe how successful it was and so we still have Labour being blamed for things 8 years after leaving office while the Tories get a relatively easy treatment. They after all are the ones who put us into this Brexit clusterfuck in the first place with no plan for a Leave vote.

Look at the graphs, climate change has gone beyond simply just global warming now and we will have at least a 2C rise in global temperature by the end of the century. We could also chuck in the mass destabilisation of the Middle East thanks to a series of failed military interventions...

Millenials are still not in a position to effect policy changes which can reverse the damage. Your generation still is.

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

The Independent and The Bank of England aren't two sources I can take particularly seriously when it comes to Brexit.

We should be in recession already according to them so it's clear this is just a tactic to try and avoid a no deal situation.

Even if it wasn't, the boy has cried wolf too many times.

The reality is, if we hadn't seen so much kicking and screaming about this, we wouldn't be in the position we are in now when we have the propersition of a shit deal or nothing.

 

[clint van damme]

The Independent and The Bank of England aren't two sources I can take particularly seriously when it comes to Brexit.

We should be in recession already according to them so it's clear this is just a tactic to try and avoid a no deal situation.

Even if it wasn't, the boy has cried wolf too many times.

The reality is, if we hadn't seen so much kicking and screaming about this, we wouldn't be in the position we are in now when we have the propersition of a shit deal or nothing.

We were always going to be where we are now. It was obvious from the start.
Anyone who believed the nonsense spun by fox and Davis needs to have a stern word with themselves.
No deal will fuck the economy but I'd still take it
Mays proposal will actually put us in the position that the fervent anti EU brigade think we've been in for the last 40 years.
If this deal gets through parliament they'll find out what loss of sovereignty really looks like.

 

[SkyblueBazza]

No that is an opinion made before the BOE statement

The BOE denies under the actual deal this will occur at all and that there will be little if any impact at all

Do you believe the BOE on this? I assume not

Why - haven't the BOE said they will increase growth forecast if it signed?

From May to Carney, JRM to the CBI, Chairman of Dyson to the Chairman of Jaguar & from SickBoy to me...it is all crystal ball stuff.
It is unknown territory, some overestimate the impact, some under estimate the resourcefulness of the British psyche. All a bit like knowing what to expect when landing on pluto. All guesswork...some educated, some not. BUT all amounts to a degree of guesswork at somepoint in the analysis.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

We were always going to be where we are now. It was obvious from the start.
Anyone who believed the nonsense spun by fox and Davis needs to have a stern word with themselves.
No deal will fuck the economy but I'd still take it
Mays proposal will actually put us in the position that the fervent anti EU brigade think we've been in for the last 40 years.
If this deal gets through parliament they'll find out what loss of sovereignty really looks like.

Agree with most of that, although I believe if the vote had been accepted we would have a stronger and more confident hand.

I'm not having a stab, it's just the reality.

The deal May has drummed together is horrendous.

 

[clint van damme]

From May to Carney, JRM to the CBI, Chairman of Dyson to the Chairman of Jaguar & from SickBoy to me...it is all crystal ball stuff.
It is unknown territory, some overestimate the impact, some under estimate the resourcefulness of the British psyche. All a bit like knowing what to expect when landing on pluto. All guesswork...some educated, some not. BUT all amounts to a degree of guesswork at somepoint in the analysis.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

If you have to check every vehicle that currently enters the country fairly seamlessly using a CMR you can make a fairly accurate estimation of how much delay that is going to create.
If we import certain amount of goods from a certain country under the terms of a trade deal that we will now need to pay WTO tariffs on the you can make a fairly accurate estimation of what the extra cost will be and vice versa with exports.

Yes, all these models can't be relied on 100% but it's not like they're based on guess work.

I agree about resourcefulness and it looks like we could be relying quite heavily on it.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

If you have to check every vehicle that currently enters the country fairly seamlessly you can make a fairly accurate estimation of how much delay that is going to create.
If we import certain amount of goods from a certain country under the terms of a trade deal that we will now need to pay WTO tariffs on the you can make a fairly accurate estimation of what the extra cost will be and vice versa with exports.

Yes, all these models can't be relied on 100% but it's not like they're based on guess work.

I agree about resourcefulness and it looks like we could be relying quite heavily on it.

How will our arms sales to the Saudis be affected?

 

[clint van damme]

Agree with most of that, although I believe if the vote had been accepted we would have a stronger and more confident hand.

I'm not having a stab, it's just the reality.

The deal May has drummed together is horrendous.

The public reaction to the vote gas had no bearing on the outcome whatsoever. Be like me saying the reason City aren't scoring enough goals is because you've been negative about Chaplin.
This was all about a schism in the Tory party.
Mays election gamble and subsequent agreement with the DUP just threw an extra dimension of fuckedupness into the mix.

 

[clint van damme]

How will our arms sales to the Saudis be affected?

I'd never thought about that but I'd imagine they won't be affected sen as we've been expjortingvthem out there for 70 years!
If our economy does start struggling we'll probably offer the BOGOF.

 

[martcov]

No that is an opinion made before the BOE statement

The BOE denies under the actual deal this will occur at all and that there will be little if any impact at all

Do you believe the BOE on this? I assume not

Why - haven't the BOE said they will increase growth forecast if it signed?

I believe leaving the EU must cause some form of disruption and it will be negative. We cannot have a better system than we have now. If you mess around with something that’s not broken, you are asking for trouble. Up until now the general opinion, based on impact assessments from a variety of sources, is that GDP will drop, more with a no deal and less with an orderly exit. You seem to think that all wil be rosy based on BoE. I haven’t read that, but I can believe that May is keeping us in the EU for the transition period if it comes off, and therefore damage will be minimal until we leave the transition period. Let’s hope we get a people’s vote and cull the whole Brexit shambles.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I'd never thought about that but I'd imagine they won't be affected sen as we've been expjortingvthem out there for 70 years!
If our economy does start struggling we'll probably offer the BOGOF.

That's good news, I was worried the killings in Yemen might be slowed down. Onwards and upwards eh-or downwards in the bombs' case

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I believe leaving the EU must cause some form of disruption and it will be negative. We cannot have a better system than we have now. If you mess around with something that’s not broken, you are asking for trouble. Up until now the general opinion, based on impact assessments from a variety of sources, is that GDP will drop, more with a no deal and less with an orderly exit. You seem to think that all wil be rosy based on BoE. I haven’t read that, but I can believe that May is keeping us in the EU for the transition period if it comes off, and therefore damage will be minimal until we leave the transition period. Let’s hope we get a people’s vote and cull the whole Brexit shambles.

How is it being perceived in Deutschland?

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

The public reaction to the vote gas had no bearing on the outcome whatsoever. Be like me saying the reason City aren't scoring enough goals is because you've been negative about Chaplin.
This was all about a schism in the Tory party.
Mays election gamble and subsequent agreement with the DUP just threw an extra dimension of fuckedupness into the mix.

I think it has a massive bearing to be honest.

It's not that comparable to football, but if we were booing a player for 90 minutes over two years, I think we could all expect them not to be performing too well.

 

[martcov]

Is

How is it being perceived in Deutschland?

As I said on another post: island of madness ( Insel des Irrsinns ). Brexit drags a proud nation into it’s downfall ( Untergang). Sums it up.

That was a sub title on the front page of the Spiegel. The main headline was about dodgy donations to the hard right AfD from non EU sources via straw firms to hide the donators. Seem familiar to the Brexit leave campaign?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Is


As I said on another post: island of madness ( Insel des Irrsinns ). Brexit drags a proud nation into it’s downfall ( Untergang). Sums it up.

That was a sub title on the front page of the Spiegel. The main headline was about dodgy donations to the hard right AfD from non EU sources via straw firms to hide the donators. Seem familiar to the Brexit leave campaign?

Going to Berlin in April having enjoyed Munich and Salzburg (pseudo Bavaria though they won't admit it) before it'll be a bit embarrassing showing the EU passport shortly after this fuckery is completed.

 

[Grendel]

Is


As I said on another post: island of madness ( Insel des Irrsinns ). Brexit drags a proud nation into it’s downfall ( Untergang). Sums it up.

That was a sub title on the front page of the Spiegel. The main headline was about dodgy donations to the hard right AfD from non EU sources via straw firms to hide the donators. Seem familiar to the Brexit leave campaign?

No it sounds like your poster boy George Soros and his attempt to influence the world down a zombie globalisation route so he can continue to speculate and gain

 

[martcov]

No it sounds like your poster boy George Soros and his attempt to influence the world down a zombie globalisation route so he can continue to speculate and gain

No it is donations from the 93 years old son of Hitler’s Bankier, August von Finck. The family made a lot of money during the aryanisation of Jewish businesses. Soros had to live under a false name at the time von Finck was being bought up in the Third Reich. I wonder what attracts people like von Finck to people who believe in a system of nation states? Why did he finance the birth of AfD? He invested the money he made from gold speculation, and he has now bought the precious metal company Degussa. Hoping for turbulence to make some more money? Degussa melted the gold taken from dead Jews in concentration camps. Still he seems to like the far right.

 

[martcov]

Going to Berlin in April having enjoyed Munich and Salzburg (pseudo Bavaria though they won't admit it) before it'll be a bit embarrassing showing the EU passport shortly after this fuckery is completed.

I’m in Berlin in January and March for a few days each time. I like it there. I stay in Neukölln. Multi cultural area. I’ve never had any problem there. Sort of hip place. Some on here don’t like Muslims, so they probably wouldn’t like it. I’m in Munich in February. I don’t go out much now after work. Just stick with the people I know and have a beer and something to eat. Used to live in Munich when I was younger.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I’m in Berlin in January and March for a few days each time. I like it there. I stay in Neukölln. Multi cultural area. I’ve never had any problem there. Sort of hip place. Some on here don’t like Muslims, so they probably wouldn’t like it. I’m in Munich in February. I don’t go out much now after work. Just stick with the people I know and have a beer and something to eat. Used to live in Munich when I was younger.

We're staying near Tiergarten, looking forward to it. Looking less forward to the non-EU passport queue.

 

[fellatio_Martinez]

 

[Astute]

This is bizarre-nowhere was I griping about pensions. One of the few remaining perks of education is the pension, so I have no issue with that. What I did say, and there is a mount of evidence supporting it, is that my generation will be the first to be worse off than the one before. The reason for that is surely that the one before ballsed up.

I can also take fair criticism of Labour, I'm not a member and haven't always voted for them. But the reality is we've got a two horse race and there is one party showing contempt for young people and the public sector and another at least trying to do the opposite. Their manifesto had far more attempts at costings than the Conservative one and George Osborne admitted bullshit on the 'Labour crashed the economy' line spread around 2010. Even he couldn't believe how successful it was and so we still have Labour being blamed for things 8 years after leaving office while the Tories get a relatively easy treatment. They after all are the ones who put us into this Brexit clusterfuck in the first place with no plan for a Leave vote.

Look at the graphs, climate change has gone beyond simply just global warming now and we will have at least a 2C rise in global temperature by the end of the century. We could also chuck in the mass destabilisation of the Middle East thanks to a series of failed military interventions...

Millenials are still not in a position to effect policy changes which can reverse the damage. Your generation still is.

1, You mentioned pensions.
2, You mentioned house prices.
3, All politicians lie. Look no further than Bliar and failed military interventions looking for WMD's.
4, So nothing has happened about global warming? I have the largest offshore wind farm in Europe on my doorstep. Coal generated electric is about finished. Emissions are well down per head. But the biggest problem is the population going up. Electric cars are now grabbing market space. I take it your generation did all this.

Everything about global warming is a prediction. The problem is that we still have mass producers like China. Should we make cows extinct?

Redirect Notice

Are cows the cause of global warming? | Time for change

 

[clint van damme]

I think it has a massive bearing to be honest.

It's not that comparable to football, but if we were booing a player for 90 minutes over two years, I think we could all expect them not to be performing too well.

but as Brexiteers keep telling us 52% did get behind it, probably the biggest political mandate ever. There are probably more people behind Brexit than any other major political event that's taken place in my life time.
A happy clappy public doesn't matter. Look at the objectives of all the major players, look at their red lines, look at what trading under WTO rules entails, look at the morons like David Davis who were at the top table of the process. Yes, the GE and subsequent deal with the DUP was a bit of a curved ball but we were always heading to where we are now.

By your logic the Iraq war wasn't a success because the public didn't get behind it when in reality it was always going turn out the way it did.

 

[Sick Boy]

Agree with most of that, although I believe if the vote had been accepted we would have a stronger and more confident hand.

I'm not having a stab, it's just the reality.

The deal May has drummed together is horrendous.

It wouldn’t have made any difference whatsoever, it’s just people in government trying to pass on the blame, yet again.

We’d be in a better position if those who drove us to this and who have the power to do something actually take some responsibility for a change.

 

[Sick Boy]

1, You mentioned pensions.
2, You mentioned house prices.
3, All politicians lie. Look no further than Bliar and failed military interventions looking for WMD's.
4, So nothing has happened about global warming? I have the largest offshore wind farm in Europe on my doorstep. Coal generated electric is about finished. Emissions are well down per head. But the biggest problem is the population going up. Electric cars are now grabbing market space. I take it your generation did all this.

Everything about global warming is a prediction. The problem is that we still have mass producers like China. Should we make cows extinct?

Redirect Notice

Are cows the cause of global warming? | Time for change

I think the rise of electric cars is going to be inevitable and more people across Europe are starting to use alternative fuels. In Veneto they’ve taken the step of banning people from driving diesel cars. I will be driving a car that’s been converted to ‘metano’ over there - methane :woot:

 

[martcov]

1, You mentioned pensions.
2, You mentioned house prices.
3, All politicians lie. Look no further than Bliar and failed military interventions looking for WMD's.
4, So nothing has happened about global warming? I have the largest offshore wind farm in Europe on my doorstep. Coal generated electric is about finished. Emissions are well down per head. But the biggest problem is the population going up. Electric cars are now grabbing market space. I take it your generation did all this.

Everything about global warming is a prediction. The problem is that we still have mass producers like China. Should we make cows extinct?

Redirect Notice

Are cows the cause of global warming? | Time for change

The predictions are based on facts. The climate is getting warmer.

Eat less beef. Demand falls. Less cattle.

Your solution to too many people?

 

[Astute]

I think the rise of electric cars is going to be inevitable and more people across Europe are starting to use alternative fuels. In Veneto they’ve taken the step of banning people from driving diesel cars. I will be driving a car that’s been converted to ‘metano’ over there - methane :woot:

Does it come with a cow in the boot to power it?

 

[Astute]

By your logic the Iraq war wasn't a success because the public didn't get behind it when in reality it was always going turn out the way it did.

Do you count it as a success?