Match Thread Stoke City - Coventry City Match Thread - Saturday 8th Nov (43 Viewers)

[Briles]

The only concern Is the obvious one where Robins knows our players strengths and weaknesses (granted they may have changed since Lampards coaching) I think he will certainly put 2 against sakamoto which we can use to our advantage

 

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[Chris1987]

We are top for a reason . Other teams will be worrying about how to contain us. If we put a performance in we win.

 

[Otis]

Is it inconceivable to leave Haji out?

Yes. Especially if the answer is playing Simms instead.

You have to remember that Robins has worked with most of these players and I think he would set out a plan in how to handle Simms. Wright is so much more unpredictable and hard to plan against. He can change a game in an instance.

I would stick with Wright.

 

[Tommo1993]

Yes. Especially if the answer is playing Simms instead.

You have to remember that Robins has worked with most of these players and I think he would set out a plan in how to handle Simms. Wright is so much more unpredictable and hard to plan against. He can change a game in an instance.

I would stick with Wright.

How many chances does he get if he carries on ghosting through games?

 

[TomRad85]

One for the data heads but what is it saying on Stoke? I know all underlying numbers have us exactly where we should be, which is great are we're outputting the numbers and have the mental fortitude to also turn that into real points.
My feeling is Stoke are overperforming but I could be wrong. I know Boro were massively and it's catching up to them already.

 

[djr8369]

I've been talking to my Stoke supporting mate, and he says that he'd be very happy with a draw. His point was that they've been a bit lucky so far, they've been giving up chances but opponents haven't been taking advantage. (To be honest, I've felt the same about us more than once!)

He thinks we're a lot more clinical and should win.

He did say that he's very happy with Robins, and in true football fan fashion, he's delighted that they're 18 points above the relegation zone!

I know that outlook only too well; I'm very used to calculating exactly what it will take to stay ahead of the teams just below us, I'm just not used to seeing no one above us. It feels... weird. I like it.

Having a Quick Look at the xG for their last few games they’ve overperformed it while oppo has been wasteful, so rings true that they’ve been a bit lucky.

For much of the season we’ve had a high xG and low xGA so are more deserving of the position we are in.

 

[Briles]

One for the data heads but what is it saying on Stoke? I know all underlying numbers have us exactly where we should be, which is great are we're outputting the numbers and have the mental fortitude to also turn that into real points.
My feeling is Stoke are overperforming but I could be wrong. I know Boro were massively and it's catching up to them already.

Just a quick Ai search says this. (GSE bodes well as it appears teams are creating chances against them and not scoring. We will see to that)

• Actual Position vs. Expected Position: While second in the actual table, statistical models and analysts' predictions, based on underlying data, place them lower, often in a playoff position (3rd-6th) rather than an automatic promotion spot.
• Actual Goal Difference vs. xG Difference: Stoke has an impressive actual goal difference of +12 (21 goals for, 9 against). In contrast, their expected goal difference (xG Diff) is only +0.7 (18.1 xG for, 17.4 xGA against), indicating they have been much more efficient at converting chances and preventing goals than the quality of those chances would typically predict.
• Goal Scoring Efficiency: They are currently scoring more goals per match (1.5) than their xG per match (1.41), and conceding fewer goals per match (0.64) than their xG against per match (1.32). This high level of efficiency in both attack and defense is a key factor in their current high standing.

 

[djr8369]

One for the data heads but what is it saying on Stoke? I know all underlying numbers have us exactly where we should be, which is great are we're outputting the numbers and have the mental fortitude to also turn that into real points.
My feeling is Stoke are overperforming but I could be wrong. I know Boro were massively and it's catching up to them already.

 

[TomRad85]

Just a quick Ai search says this. (GSE bodes well as it appears teams are creating chances against them and not scoring. We will see to that)

• Actual Position vs. Expected Position: While second in the actual table, statistical models and analysts' predictions, based on underlying data, place them lower, often in a playoff position (3rd-6th) rather than an automatic promotion spot.
• Actual Goal Difference vs. xG Difference: Stoke has an impressive actual goal difference of +12 (21 goals for, 9 against). In contrast, their expected goal difference (xG Diff) is only +0.7 (18.1 xG for, 17.4 xGA against), indicating they have been much more efficient at converting chances and preventing goals than the quality of those chances would typically predict.
• Goal Scoring Efficiency: They are currently scoring more goals per match (1.5) than their xG per match (1.41), and conceding fewer goals per match (0.64) than their xG against per match (1.32). This high level of efficiency in both attack and defense is a key factor in their current high standing.

Pretty much what I thought, thanks. We can definitely go there and create chances, we just need to take them which they've been relatively fortunate with so far.

 

[shmmeee]

Yes. Especially if the answer is playing Simms instead.

You have to remember that Robins has worked with most of these players and I think he would set out a plan in how to handle Simms. Wright is so much more unpredictable and hard to plan against. He can change a game in an instance.

I would stick with Wright.

Thing for me is it’s away and if we go three at the back we’re going longer. I think a 343 works better with a focal points and the other two forwards coming closer and going past the number 9. Even more so if we went 532. 424 or 4231 I’d go Haji. Just feel we’ll be a lot more direct here.

 

[TomRad85]

View attachment 46992

What I'm getting is that despite a relatively small points gap, we're actually a fair bit better. Let's do this boys!

 

[TomRad85]

Thing for me is it’s away and if we go three at the back we’re going longer. I think a 343 works better with a focal points and the other two forwards coming closer and going past the number 9. Even more so if we went 532. 424 or 4231 I’d go Haji. Just feel we’ll be a lot more direct here.

Chuck in the long throws. Nothing more poetic than scoring a long throw vs Stoke, which I believe we did last season.

 

[StrettoBoy]

Here is a broad range of our statistics:




I think it's fair to say that we are doing very well on most metrics

Not that we needed these figures to prove it

 

[Evo1883]

One for the data heads but what is it saying on Stoke? I know all underlying numbers have us exactly where we should be, which is great are we're outputting the numbers and have the mental fortitude to also turn that into real points.
My feeling is Stoke are overperforming but I could be wrong. I know Boro were massively and it's catching up to them already.

13th in the expected goals for
Mid table for XG against

Youd probably have them down as slightly over achieving

 

[Briles]

Here is a broad range of our statistics:


View attachment 46993

I think it's fair to say that we are doing very well on most metrics

Not that we needed these figures to prove it

XG Home and away the same? That cant happen very often

 

[harvey098]

Even if we lose this one, it's a win. I'd love to see Mark with a smile on his face.

You keep posting stuff like this trying to ridicule the pro robins posts. There’s not a single Cov fan that would rather see Robins do well at our expense. A lot of us have said we’d like to see him be the next best after us, it’s really not that weird.

I hope we stuff them 5-0 on Saturday and I would like to see him take them up. Those things can co-exist.

 

[clint van damme]

Pretty much what I thought, thanks. We can definitely go there and create chances, we just need to take them which they've been relatively fortunate with so far.

Though I'd take that table with a certain amount of caution given where blues and particularly Southampton are.
Though we're clearly where we should be.

 

[Covkid1968#]

Sold my ticket as mate couldn't get one....then he tells me yesterday that he has managed to get one I don't have a stick to watch it on, but know that there will probably be a pub in Cov that I could go and watch it. If anyone in the SBT community knows of one could you DM me please...even better if in Leicestershire

 

[TomRad85]

Though I'd take that table with a certain amount of caution given where blues and particularly Southampton are.
Though we're clearly where we should be.

No I agree, you have to actually play the points out and not just put up numbers but when the 2 largely match up its a very good sign.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Stoke away is always likely to be difficult, plus they're riding high to and in some very good form last few games. MR knows most of our players and will be aware of their strengths and weaknesses.

He'll be aware that we struggle to break down a solid defensive set-up, and being a naturally cautious manager he may well go down that route. But maybe their last few results will give them confidence to be more expansive, which arguably would be better for us to find space.

Really couldn't predict how this game might play out, but I'd describe it as don't lose. A win would be absolutely fantastic and help us stretch our lead at the top but a draw wouldn't be a disaster.

 

[TewkesburySkyBlue]

Pretty much what I thought, thanks. We can definitely go there and create chances, we just need to take them which they've been relatively fortunate with so far.

Wish I understood all these stats

 

[TomRad85]

Wish I understood all these stats

We're really good. Stoke may or may not fall away.

 

[robbiethemole]

Yes. Especially if the answer is playing Simms instead.

You have to remember that Robins has worked with most of these players and I think he would set out a plan in how to handle Simms. Wright is so much more unpredictable and hard to plan against. He can change a game in an instance.

I would stick with Wright.

Plus the BTA of Lampard is a totally different beast to the BTA of Robins, he will run them ragged.

 

[robbiethemole]

Sold my ticket as mate couldn't get one....then he tells me yesterday that he has managed to get one I don't have a stick to watch it on, but know that there will probably be a pub in Cov that I could go and watch it. If anyone in the SBT community knows of one could you DM me please...even better if in Leicestershire

Maybe try The Bricklayers Arms in Sharnford?? someone on here said the landlord was a City fan ( or his son is), try ringing them ????

 

[robbiethemole]

Wish I understood all these stats

They're all just modern bullshit mumbo-jumbo, the only thing that has ever mattered, is how many time you fucking score a goal!!!!
The stats only work in a controlled environment, but footy, as we all know, isn't an exact scieince.

 

[clint van damme]

They're all just modern bullshit mumbo-jumbo, the only thing that has ever mattered, is how many time you fucking score a goal!!!!
The stats only work in a controlled environment, but footy, as we all know, isn't an exact scieince.

Don't think anyone's claimed the stats are an exact science, more a pointer to what's going on.

 

[Evo1883]

They're all just modern bullshit mumbo-jumbo, the only thing that has ever mattered, is how many time you fucking score a goal!!!!
The stats only work in a controlled environment, but footy, as we all know, isn't an exact scieince.

Data is good , and clearly indicates patterns of play or points towards possible changes in fortunes etc

 

[David O'Day]

They're all just modern bullshit mumbo-jumbo, the only thing that has ever mattered, is how many time you fucking score a goal!!!!
The stats only work in a controlled environment, but footy, as we all know, isn't an exact scieince.

it's not though, while the goals actually scored is the most important stat xg can over a period of time show you how likely a team is to maintain a run of form

xg for example is just the expected amount of goals scored for the quality of chance you have created and it is pretty good at shwing the likely hood of teams carrying on in the way they are. If you scoring more than xg says then unless you have a world class striker then you are likely to stop scoring every hard chance and your actual goals will trend back toward your xg

 

[robbiethemole]

it's not though, while the goals actually scored is the most important stat xg can over a period of time show you how likely a team is to maintain a run of form

xg for example is just the expected amount of goals scored for the quality of chance you have created and it is pretty good at shwing the likely hood of teams carrying on in the way they are. If you scoring more than xg says then unless you have a world class striker then you are likely to stop scoring every hard chance and your actual goals will trend back toward your xg

but surely, they are arbitrary figures, who decides what is a hard chance and what isn't?

 

[SkyblueTexan]

Hope Rudoni makes a 15-20 min cameo appearance and gives everyone a lift.

 

[David O'Day]

but surely, they are arbitrary figures, who decides what is a hard chance and what isn't?

they are not though, for example the closer to goal the higher the xg

Basically they look at historical data to see how likely it is that a player will score from that position. It's not arbitrary, it's historical data on how many people according to the available records scored that chance or ones like it at least. The xg models used in the professional gae have millions of chances in their databases.

It's really useful over extended periods and is pretty much always right unless as stated before you have some of a quality high enough that they will keep scoring the chances historically post people didn't.

 

[Otis]

Hope Rudoni makes a 15-20 min cameo appearance and gives everyone a lift.

Bloody expensive, I can tell you. And with a name like Otis, I should know

 

[Otis]

That's not me, by the way.

 

[robbiethemole]

Bloody expensive, I can tell you. And with a name like Otis, I should know

View attachment 46999

Here's a strange one on the subject of lifts......................... in Rugby Centre, there's a lift that only goes to the top floor of the carpark, but it has BRAILLE on the buttons!!!!! WTF?

 

[PVA]

Hope Rudoni makes a 15-20 min cameo appearance and gives everyone a lift.

He must have a big car