Match Thread Stoke City - Coventry City Match Thread - Saturday 8th Nov (26 Viewers)

long way home

Well-Known Member
Massive player for us and to see him back in squads would be another threat opposition teams would need to worry about. The only positive of him being out is knowing we do have other qualities within the squad, Jack definitely adds to that and does give something different which is a great thing for FL. Lets hope he gets on grass this week, has 2 weeks more and is ready to be named in the squad after international return.
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
See this is the root cause of your skepticism, you don’t understand how they are generated but briefly no, they are not arbitrary.

xG is based on the statistical likelihood of scoring based on the position on the pitch the shot was taken. A shot within a few yards of goal has a high xG, 0.7 maybe, you could still blaze it over but on average you’re more than likely to score than not.

Stoke won a game 1-0 with a shot with an xG of 0.01. It was from far out and wide, presumably a cross that drifted in. So yeah, in an individual games it just tells you how good the chances you created were but over the course of a season things will revert to the mean.
But surely you have to take into account other factors. For example a player might be 6 yards out but have four or five players between him and the goal wheras another time be one on one with the keeper or have an open goal.

I guess the idea is that over millions of shots it averages out, but I still don't think it would properly represent the actual chance a player has.

Also on a side note I've always hated the shape of the penalty area. Get fouled right on the byline on the edge of the box - pen even though the chance of scoring are quite low. Inside the D, just a free kick even though it's almost certainly go a higher likelihood of going in. Maybe we could use xG to reform the shape of the penalty area, say anything over 0.5xg is inside the penalty area?
 

ccfcno9

Well-Known Member
Football a game of 90 minutes but I think the 1st 25 will decide this. Score 1st and I think we will smash it. Respond well quickly if we concede 1st and we'll still have a chance. But after 30 minutes I think the team with the strongest mindset will win.
 

Great_Expectations

Well-Known Member
Haven’t been able to get to many away games since my children were born, only a handful a season these days, so I’m massively excited for Saturday!!

The game itself will be tense, but with the game expected to be tight and the MR factor I’m expecting a great atmosphere.

I think it’ll be a cagey 0-1.
 

Great_Expectations

Well-Known Member
Also, other than the jubilation of that Thomas goal, my other memory of the home game last year was their RB (Tchamadeu) absolutely having EMC’s number.

When against a physical and pacey FB EMC can struggle, so I really hope he’s up for it on Saturday as we saw how important his role is to the effectiveness of our system on Tuesday.
 

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