How long until

chiefdave

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Was listening to paul Ross on talk radio yesterday morning. Had a guy on from Sweden who was saying they have literally done nothing different apart a bit of social distancing in first few weeks. He was Saying it was hardly on the news, bizarre
This is a pretty interesting article about the chap in charge in Sweden. Think it'll be a long time before we can say who got things right.

 
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clint van damme

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we have flu every year, why has there not been an opportunity to research what Asia have been doing for years before this virus ? . Imagine the lives we could have saved if this is right and we haven’t been doing this every winter
Professor Anthony Costello has been warning
This is a pretty interesting article about the chap in charge in Sweden. Think it'll be a long time before we can say who got things right.

Think they're about 5th or 6th worse for deaths per capita in Europe so not a roaring success but not the worse either.
 

ccfcway

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Good point. Why don’t we wear them all the time? (Although I imagine we need to be exposed to some pathogens to keep our immune systems functional).

I’ll post it again because it addresses your question:

does it?, why don’t we wear them every winter?
 

ccfcway

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Professor Anthony Costello has been warning


Think they're about 5th or 6th worse for deaths per capita in Europe so not a roaring success but not the worse either.
and their position in league tables for economy, mental health, other deaths etc
 

BornSlippySkyBlue

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“The concept is risk reduction rather than absolute prevention”

get that, Why not every winter then ?
Have you noticed the resistance to wearing them when there is literally a global pandemic that has killed *checks notes* 911k people (so far)? What do you think people would have said 2 years ago if the government had told us all to wear masks to prevent ‘old people dying from flu’?

I’m not an epidemiologist, but I suspect that we need some exposure to germs or our immune systems wouldn’t be as effective. At the moment the risk > benefit of not having the inconvenience (which is all it is really) of wearing a mask. In normal years the benefit to society of asking everyone to wear masks isn’t worth the political pain. So the short answer is ‘politics’. But also there isn’t usually a global pandemic of a novel virus that none of us have immunity to.

I know I keep repeating myself, but even if it only might help, why not do it? This seems to be one of those unanswerable questions like “what are the benefits of Brexit?”. Still haven’t seen an actual answer to either question other than ‘it’s what I want’.
 

ccfcway

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Have you noticed the resistance to wearing them when there is literally a global pandemic that has killed *checks notes* 911k people (so far)? What do you think people would have said 2 years ago if the government had told us all to wear masks to prevent ‘old people dying from flu’?
some people will have worn the:m and if the science is right it would have saved lives
 

Sick Boy

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So why can I sit in a bar with 20 people in a room the size of my garden shed maskless but not in an empty shop
Because the government is incompetent. Masks have been extensively worn indoors and actually enforced here to help prevent the spread and government checks done on workplaces too, I’d know where I’d rather be right now ;)
 
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ccfcway

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And undoubtedly did in those countries where mask wearing isn’t considered akin to being hung drawn and quartered.
I have to say, I think most of the issues people have are due to the sheer dimissive nature of the government when asked about masks at the start. If it was clear this was how we would get up and running again, you’d have more people on board.
 

Brighton Sky Blue

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It's cultural. They do in a lot of S.E. Asian countries.
As appealing as the mass audition for Resident Evil 5 sounds the moment I don’t have to have my face stifled I take it off. Though as long as the government considers it appropriate for me to mix with 100+ different children and adults a day I question why I can’t go to a mass outdoor event like a football match. That’s ok but meeting with over 6 people is a hazard.

This is either a genuine risk or it isn’t and the contradictions are what make it impossible to predict how football or anything else will unfold.
 
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mark82

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As appealing as the mass audition for Resident Evil 5 sounds the moment I don’t have to have my face stifled I take it off. Though as long as the government considers it appropriate for me to mix with 100+ different children and adults a day I question why I can’t go to a mass outdoor event like a football match. That’s ok but meeting with over 6 people is a hazard.

This is either a genuine risk or it isn’t and the contradictions are what make it impossible to predict how football or anything else will unfold.
The handling has been a complete clusterfuck.
 

shmmeee

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As appealing as the mass audition for Resident Evil 5 sounds the moment I don’t have to have my face stifled I take it off. Though as long as the government considers it appropriate for me to mix with 100+ different children and adults a day I question why I can’t go to a mass outdoor event like a football match. That’s ok but meeting with over 6 people is a hazard.

This is either a genuine risk or it isn’t and the contradictions are what make it impossible to predict how football or anything else will unfold.
Because it doesn’t work like that. There’s not some risk threshold to meet then an activity is allowed, if there was Eat Out To Help Out would’ve been insane as apparently eating out is one of the riskiest activities.

It’s about picking what to open to keep the economy going and like it or not schools number one aim is free childcare so parents can work. Nothing else comes close in terms of economic impact. Also you see the same group each day, of maybe 1500 and you’re not close by for hours at a time. Football matches have tie styles and singing and other high risk activities and up to 50k people next to each other for two hours. And provide far less economic benefit.

They should be closing pubs to allow schools to open but they won’t because commercial landlords are twitchy enough. Somethings going to have to give, but I expect in person schooling to be last on the list.

And if everyone followed the fricken rules we could open more up! Expected compliance is one factor in risk analysis and let’s be honest football fans after a beer are highly unlikely to follow social distancing and other measures.
 

Evo1883

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Professor Anthony Costello has been warning


Think they're about 5th or 6th worse for deaths per capita in Europe so not a roaring success but not the worse either.
I think in Sweden their thinking is over time, we will have bigger spikes etc because of our inconsistencies and eventually Swedens numbers will fall below most of the rest... I don't know the updated figures for Sweden
 

Brighton Sky Blue

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Because it doesn’t work like that. There’s not some risk threshold to meet then an activity is allowed, if there was Eat Out To Help Out would’ve been insane as apparently eating out is one of the riskiest activities.

It’s about picking what to open to keep the economy going and like it or not schools number one aim is free childcare so parents can work. Nothing else comes close in terms of economic impact. Also you see the same group each day, of maybe 1500 and you’re not close by for hours at a time. Football matches have tie styles and singing and other high risk activities and up to 50k people next to each other for two hours. And provide far less economic benefit.

They should be closing pubs to allow schools to open but they won’t because commercial landlords are twitchy enough. Somethings going to have to give, but I expect in person schooling to be last on the list.

And if everyone followed the fricken rules we could open more up! Expected compliance is one factor in risk analysis and let’s be honest football fans after a beer are highly unlikely to follow social distancing and other measures.
Thousands of people mixing every day in school and bringing it home. Mostly in schools that don’t have the facilities to maintain a distance even with good behaviour and well meaning students. Drop the pretence that transmission won’t happen and open them up normally.

Where was the surge in deaths after everyone crammed into London for protests, or after they filled beaches to capacity most weeks in the summer? We are acting like this is the worst disease of all time and yet diseases that will actually cause symptoms are on the horizon and these are lower priority than one that mostly doesn’t. We could and should allow partial reopening of sports fixtures.

I suspect if you were still attempting to ‘go back to normal’ while also treating your classroom like an operating theatre you’d have more of an issue with the contradictions
 
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BornSlippySkyBlue

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I have to say, I think most of the issues people have are due to the sheer dimissive nature of the government when asked about masks at the start. If it was clear this was how we would get up and running again, you’d have more people on board.
Agreed that the mixed messaging hasn’t helped. Think even the WHO were saying not to bother at first though, and everyone (including me) thought the Asian nations that wore them were mad. Happy to admit they were right.
 

kg82

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“The concept is risk reduction rather than absolute prevention”

get that, Why not every winter then ?
Mentality and awareness are a couple of things. Over here they’re told from a young age to wear masks if you start feeling sick, sneezing, have a fever etc. Masks are sold on every street corner. It’s in plain sight. Most of them know it’s not for 100% prevention, but they also know it helps. In England, before this, when did you really hear about masks apart from a few people wearing them on their daily commute?
I hate wearing masks, but the mentality over here is completely different and I’ve had to wear one for the last 6 months, every day.
 
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robbiekeane

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I have to say, I think most of the issues people have are due to the sheer dimissive nature of the government when asked about masks at the start. If it was clear this was how we would get up and running again, you’d have more people on board.
As appealing as the mass audition for Resident Evil 5 sounds the moment I don’t have to have my face stifled I take it off. Though as long as the government considers it appropriate for me to mix with 100+ different children and adults a day I question why I can’t go to a mass outdoor event like a football match. That’s ok but meeting with over 6 people is a hazard.

This is either a genuine risk or it isn’t and the contradictions are what make it impossible to predict how football or anything else will unfold.
My mum would prefer to die
I just don’t get the reluctance. In and around New York, from around April time it was compulsory to wear a face mask and if you didn’t wear one you weren’t allowed in any store and you weren’t allowed on public transport. Simple. People very soon adjusted, and now I feel dodgy walking past people on a crowded pavement without a mask. Wouldn’t dream of walking into a store or establishment without one.

It’s now: phone, wallet, keys, mask - and it’s easy. Don’t get the problem if there’s even a chance it helps.
 

kg82

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I just don’t get the reluctance. In and around New York, from around April time it was compulsory to wear a face mask and if you didn’t wear one you weren’t allowed in any store and you weren’t allowed on public transport. Simple. People very soon adjusted, and now I feel dodgy walking past people on a crowded pavement without a mask. Wouldn’t dream of walking into a store or establishment without one.

It’s now: phone, wallet, keys, mask - and it’s easy. Don’t get the problem if there’s even a chance it helps.
And you get to look like sub-zero from Mortal Kombat
 

theferret

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Not sure where you're getting your numbers from but there are far more in hospital. Not that it is a reliable barometer as I have a strong suspicion that admissions are being suppressed. See the coronavirus thread.
Admissions are not being surpressed. Many hospitals are covid free, Warwick hospital doesn't have a single covid case at the moment. No reason to doubt the figures at all.
 

Sick Boy

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I just don’t get the reluctance. In and around New York, from around April time it was compulsory to wear a face mask and if you didn’t wear one you weren’t allowed in any store and you weren’t allowed on public transport. Simple. People very soon adjusted, and now I feel dodgy walking past people on a crowded pavement without a mask. Wouldn’t dream of walking into a store or establishment without one.

It’s now: phone, wallet, keys, mask - and it’s easy. Don’t get the problem if there’s even a chance it helps.
Yeah it’s like that where I am here; I wear a mask every day and so does everyone else.
 
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theferret

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So let me get this straight. There is a virus out there that 99.7% of people infected will survive. Infection rates are currently very low, our hospitals have never been so empty. Weekly deaths have been running at or below the weekly 5 years average for months. More people are currently dieing from flu than covid. Overall, more people died in the 2016 flu epidemic than in total from covid (and that's with a flu vaccine).

Meanwhile, the human costs of lockdown are mounting. Hospitals are reporting a spike in suicide attempts. Jobs are being lost, mental health issues are rising, and treatments for other chronic illnesses are being delayed or cancelled. And yet, people are calling for ANOTHER lock down? We appear to have lost all sense of reason.

*Yes, covid is a nasty illness for some and of course there are measures we should take, but they should be proportionate. I worry about next year and the coming spike in cancer deaths and for the economic impact to really hit.
 

theferret

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Yeah it’s like that where I am here; I wear a mask every day and so does everyone else.
Is there anything you wouldn't do that the government tells you to?

I'm amazed at how compliant some people are. I've often wondered how totalitarian governments come to be, but the last few months have shown me, it's simply that people will do exactly what their government tells them to do, without question, often because they’re told it's for the greater good. I'm exaggerating to make a point of course before you shout at me.

Evidence on mask effectiveness is flimsy at best. Is it proportionate? I don't think so. Far fewer people are visiting the high Street, put off because they don't want to be muzzled in public (it is their choice to not wear a mask and not go out). Jobs will be lost as a consequence , so we have to ask is the economic hit worth the unproven benefit of wearing masks? If we wear them now should we not wear them every winter in flu season? Are we happy to fundamentally change the way we interact with each other as human beings (that little smile at the shop assistant, small things we will lose if mask wearing becomes the new normal)?

I'm just surprised at how people accept everything. These liberties that are being curtailed, some we will get back, others we won't. Elsewhere in the world we're already seeing governments using new powers they have seized to shut down dissent and protest. I just think this goes beyond 'it just a mask, no big deal' - which taken in isolation may he valid, but there are bigger questions about liberty to be discussed.
 

Sky Blue Pete

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I just don’t get the reluctance. In and around New York, from around April time it was compulsory to wear a face mask and if you didn’t wear one you weren’t allowed in any store and you weren’t allowed on public transport. Simple. People very soon adjusted, and now I feel dodgy walking past people on a crowded pavement without a mask. Wouldn’t dream of walking into a store or establishment without one.

It’s now: phone, wallet, keys, mask - and it’s easy. Don’t get the problem if there’s even a chance it helps.
My mum would rather die than be shut in. She’s happy to wear a mask
 

Sick Boy

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Is there anything you wouldn't do that the government tells you to?

I'm amazed at how compliant some people are. I've often wondered how totalitarian governments come to be, but the last few months have shown me, it's simply that people will do exactly what their government tells them to do, without question, often because they’re told it's for the greater good. I'm exaggerating to make a point of course before you shout at me.

Evidence on mask effectiveness is flimsy at best. Is it proportionate? I don't think so. Far fewer people are visiting the high Street, put off because they don't want to be muzzled in public (it is their choice to not wear a mask and not go out). Jobs will be lost as a consequence , so we have to ask is the economic hit worth the unproven benefit of wearing masks? If we wear them now should we not wear them every winter in flu season? Are we happy to fundamentally change the way we interact with each other as human beings (that little smile at the shop assistant, small things we will lose if mask wearing becomes the new normal)?

I'm just surprised at how people accept everything. These liberties that are being curtailed, some we will get back, others we won't. Elsewhere in the world we're already seeing governments using new powers they have seized to shut down dissent and protest. I just think this goes beyond 'it just a mask, no big deal' - which taken in isolation may he valid, but there are bigger questions about liberty to be discussed.
Curtailing liberties? It’s wearing a mask indoors during a pandemic, life is pretty much back to normal here apart from that. Get some perspective, you’re comparing a temporary measure to help reduce contagion of Covid-19 to actual human rights abuses around the world.
 
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Skyblueweeman

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Schools, pubs, cafes etc first... Footballers are tested regularly... That will be after
The EFL stopped testing players regularly about 10 days ago though so outside the Prem, they're not tested regularly anymore.