Four home wins? (1 Viewer)

rob9872 · Mar 12, 2012

We are a poor side. We are hopeless away but ...

... since December 10th we have played 8 league games at home and lost only once in the dying seconds against Ipswich (and after a poor refereeing display).

We have four home games remaining which on paper are very 'winnable'.

Questions:
1) Do you think we can win all four remaining home games
2) If we do win all four and collect zero points away, do you think this will be enough to stay up?
3) Do you think we will get any away points in the remaining fixtures?
4) Its been done to death, but just a prediction how many points do you think we will finish with and what position do you think that will give us?

My view is that I still have hope and think it will go to the wire. We will probably need something at Southampton and I don't think we'll get it.
I reckon we'll slip up for a draw in at least one of those home games and can't see us getting anything away unless we really manage to raise ourselves at Bristol which is possible. I think we'll take 11 points for 41 and finish just short in 22nd.

JazzCat · Mar 12, 2012

The only thing which is keeping that last thread of hope going is our 4 home games are against bottom six sides and we still have Bristol away.

13 points from those and we have a slight chance. Lose one and I think it's all over in fact lose at Ashton gate and it's over in my opinion.

torchomatic · Mar 12, 2012

We can do it, as you say all very winnable. I think we need at least ten points from our home games. Of course, the atrocious away run has got to be halted too. We can do it, but we need other teams to slip up. It becomes so important when we play fellow the strugglers.

Grendel · Mar 12, 2012

a) We can but unlikely, I would say 8 points
b) 42 points would probably not keep us up at least 45 unless we actually beat Bristol away
c) No unless we actually turn up at Bristol. Watford is the only other one there is any real hope.
d) 38 is my guess and second from bottom

The real factor is Bristol City - if they beat them it changes the dynamic but also if they lose the next 2 away games we are then on a dreadful run of form of 2 points from 6 games and the pressure then will be huge.

CUS Wyken · Mar 12, 2012

I find it funny when fans say our form is good at the moment!!

We've drew 2 home games and lost to a Leicetser team who since have conceded 6 goals.

2 points from a possible 9 including 2 home games. Not good form. But the positive is that the teams left at home are teams around is so any wins would gain ground on the rest.

Exciting albeit scary aswell

kg82 · Mar 12, 2012

CUS Wyken said:
I find it funny when fans say our form is good at the moment!!

We've drew 2 home games and lost to a Leicetser team who since have conceded 6 goals.

2 points from a possible 9 including 2 home games. Not good form. But the positive is that the teams left at home are teams around is so any wins would gain ground on the rest.

Exciting albeit scary aswell

He said good home form - Pl 8, W 5, D 2, L 1. THAT'S good home form.

rob9872 · Mar 12, 2012

CUS Wyken said:
I find it funny when fans say our form is good at the moment!!

We've drew 2 home games and lost to a Leicetser team who since have conceded 6 goals.

2 points from a possible 9 including 2 home games. Not good form. But the positive is that the teams left at home are teams around is so any wins would gain ground on the rest.

Exciting albeit scary aswell

Not one post that I can see so far has said that our form is good. Facts have been listed that we have lost one in eight at home - that can't be disputed. If you find it funny, then you're making your own jokes up in there.

CUS Wyken · Mar 12, 2012

Form in my eyes is 3 games. And last 3 games we've got 2 points. That is poor.

We've slipped up massively In last week. I'd rather have won 1 and lost 1 this week. Be a point closer instead of been 'undefated'

Nantwich Skyblues · Mar 12, 2012

I think we may need to look over our shoulder as Donny are definatley improving and with their games in hand they could really put a spanner in the works.. we need the rails to come off for someone like millwall as well... trying to be optimistic but in truth i think our chances are very slim... pusb

Covstu · Mar 12, 2012

I cannot see us losing one of those 4 games but certainly not winning them all. The Bristol City game is key and we need at least away win to get us over the line (with 4 home wins). Donny are the biggest worry as they have rolled the dice and brought in quality unlike the rest of the teams around them, hopefully it wil be too late but i think they are hitting form at the right time.

torchomatic · Mar 12, 2012

LOL! now, this did make me laugh! Form in your eyes is only the last three games?! It suits you don't to a tee then, doesn't it!:facepalm:

CUS Wyken said:
Form in my eyes is 3 games. And last 3 games we've got 2 points. That is poor.

We've slipped up massively In last week. I'd rather have won 1 and lost 1 this week. Be a point closer instead of been 'undefated'

coundonskyblue · Mar 12, 2012

1) No we will slip up at some point.
2) Probably not
3)Yes, 1 or 2 points
4) 42 points, 22nd or 23rd

mark82 · Mar 12, 2012

In my opinion Doncaster will stay up. They have the best squad of the bottom 4. Portsmouth are down. We need to catch Bristol City plus either Forwst or Milwall. Can't see it hapenning to be honest. Hopefully Dincaster will continue to slip up, then we may have a chance.

mark82 · Mar 12, 2012

Oh, and we will beat Watford away this weekend. Can't see us winning at Ashton Gate though.

SkyBlue123 · Mar 12, 2012

Our hopes are very slim. I think we are more than capable of getting the results we need to at home, but away is what is failing us, also the fact that Forest and Bristol City both have a game in hand.

In my opinion, Forest will stay up and we HAVE to beat Bristol City at Ashton Gate to give ourselves a fighting chance.

Grendel · Mar 12, 2012

torchomatic said:
LOL! now, this did make me laugh! Form in your eyes is only the last three games?! It suits you don't to a tee then, doesn't it!:facepalm:

The problem is that it is very difficult to select a run of games that support an argument that enough points will be accumulated.

There are 10 games remaining. If we look at the last 10 games we have accumulated 11 points. This would give us 41 points which would not be sufficient to ensure survival. Although 3 games is no indicator the ration of 0.67 points a game is in line with our average of 0.83 over the whole season. It is an accurate snapshot of the season as a whole.

mark82 · Mar 12, 2012

Just looked at fixtures for all clubs at a very basic level. One thing that stands out is that we have less home games left than anyone else. Just something else that may count against us.

skyblueinBaku · Mar 12, 2012

mark82 said:
Just looked at fixtures for all clubs at a very basic level. One thing that stands out is that we have less home games left than anyone else. Just something else that may count against us.

That's a bit too basic, Mark. Against whom the home games are played is important. I haven't looked, but it would be nice if West Ham and the Saints featured in the fellow strugglers fixture lists!

torchomatic · Mar 12, 2012

I agree totally, kd. However, it is obvious to all that CUS is only using the last three games because it suits him to, hence his ''in my eyes'' comment. Why not four games, or five or seven or nine?

It,s like me saying that Thorn has got a good win rate compared to previous managers, but then. Only comparing to two managers that just happen to have lower percentages. It's just seen selective and it's ridiculous.

kduffy said:
The problem is that it is very difficult to select a run of games that support an argument that enough points will be accumulated.

There are 10 games remaining. If we look at the last 10 games we have accumulated 11 points. This would give us 41 points which would not be sufficient to ensure survival. Although 3 games is no indicator the ration of 0.67 points a game is in line with our average of 0.83 over the whole season. It is an accurate snapshot of the season as a whole.

Grendel · Mar 12, 2012

skyblueindorset said:
That's a bit too basic, Mark. Against whom the home games are played is important. I haven't looked, but it would be nice if West Ham and the Saints featured in the fellow strugglers fixture lists!

However it is significant. We are on track to lose all those games. This means that we have four home games to play. Averages suggest an 8 point haul from those matches. This gives 8 points from the ten games - 0.8 points a game and we have averaged over 36 games 0.82 points per game. It suggests a key factor for likely relegation.

Grendel · Mar 12, 2012

torchomatic said:
I agree totally, kd. However, it is obvious to all that CUS is only using the last three games because it suits him to, hence his ''in my eyes'' comment. Why not four games, or five or seven or nine?

It,s like me saying that Thorn has got a good win rate compared to previous managers, but then. Only comparing to two managers that just happen to have lower percentages. It's just seen selective and it's ridiculous.

Fair point

mark82 · Mar 12, 2012

skyblueindorset said:
That's a bit too basic, Mark. Against whom the home games are played is important. I haven't looked, but it would be nice if West Ham and the Saints featured in the fellow strugglers fixture lists!

I absolutely agree. However, teams will always have more chance of winning home games.

SkyBlue_Bear83 · Mar 12, 2012

10 games left, I think we should be aiming for 15 points 4 wins 3 draws 3 losses. Minimum is 13 points which if we are lucky could keep us up but unlikely. I think with 15 points it will give us a fair shout of staying up.

Otis · Mar 12, 2012

rob9872 said:
We are a poor side. We are hopeless away but ...

... since December 10th we have played 8 league games at home and lost only once in the dying seconds against Ipswich (and after a poor refereeing display).

We have four home games remaining which on paper are very 'winnable'.

Questions:
1) Do you think we can win all four remaining home games
2) If we do win all four and collect zero points away, do you think this will be enough to stay up?
3) Do you think we will get any away points in the remaining fixtures?
4) Its been done to death, but just a prediction how many points do you think we will finish with and what position do you think that will give us?

My view is that I still have hope and think it will go to the wire. We will probably need something at Southampton and I don't think we'll get it.
I reckon we'll slip up for a draw in at least one of those home games and can't see us getting anything away unless we really manage to raise ourselves at Bristol which is possible. I think we'll take 11 points for 41 and finish just short in 22nd.

1) Do you think we can win all four remaining home games - No. Not all 4. Think we can stay unbeaten and win maybe 2/3 and draw the other(s). Good in one sense to be playing teams at the bottom, but this in turn can prove a lot tougher than playing teams in midtable with a bit less fire in their bellies.

2) If we do win all four and collect zero points away, do you think this will be enough to stay up? Possibly. 42 might just be enough this year. Going to be down to goal difference I think though if it was 42 points.

3) Do you think we will get any away points in the remaining fixtures? No. Just can't see it. Think it has now become a mental problem as much as anything else. We need to avoid defeat at Bristol though for sure.

4) Its been done to death, but just a prediction how many points do you think we will finish with and what position do you think that will give us? 40 or 41. That will not be enough.

CUS Wyken · Mar 12, 2012

torchomatic said:
LOL! now, this did make me laugh! Form in your eyes is only the last three games?! It suits you don't to a tee then, doesn't it!:facepalm:

When I bet I look at a horses previous 3 runs. When betting on the football I look at teams previous 3 games.

2 points from 2 homes games is not good enough in our predicament. No matter which way you look at it.

torchomatic · Mar 12, 2012

Which way YOU look at it more like. Like I said, it suits you...

CUS Wyken · Mar 12, 2012

torchomatic said:
Which way YOU look at it more like. Like I said, it suits you...

I don't get your point. Do you believe 2 points from 6 at home is good for our predicament then?

torchomatic · Mar 12, 2012

17 points from the last 8 games is good though, isn't it? In my eyes form iscalculated over league games, not including Cup games obviously.

Did you see what I did there? I chose 8 games because it suited me to do so, not 9 or 10 as that wouldn't look as good. Sound familiar?

SkyBlue_Bear83 · Mar 12, 2012

CUS Wyken said:
I don't get your point. Do you believe 2 points from 6 at home is good for our predicament then?

In normal circumstances, considering the quality of the opponents we played I think we did well to stay unbeaten in those 2 games.

CUS Wyken · Mar 12, 2012

torchomatic said:
17 points from the last 8 games is good though, isn't it? In my eyes form iscalculated over league games, not including Cup games obviously.

Did you see what I did there? I chose 8 games because it suited me to do so, not 9 or 10 as that wouldn't look as good. Sound familiar?

Right in simple terms...

Bristol city had 2 home games and got 3 points
Forest played 2 home games and got 3 points
Donny played 2 away games and got 4 points

We played 2 home games and got 2 points.

Last week we've had 2 home games and gone further behind. That is not good whichever you wanna look at it.

This stage of the season games are looked upon more then games 2 months ago.

CUS Wyken · Mar 12, 2012

CCFC said:
In normal circumstances, considering the quality of the opponents we played I think we did well to stay unbeaten in those 2 games.

I remember last week posters saying 4 points would be good return. I agreed but 2 points. No, like I said I'd rather have won one and lost one instead you hear well we didn't lose, granted but we didn't win either

SkyBlue_Bear83 · Mar 12, 2012

CUS Wyken said:
I remember last week posters saying 4 points would be good return. I agreed but 2 points. No, like I said I'd rather have won one and lost one instead you hear well we didn't lose, granted but we didn't win either

4 points would have been a great return and obviously winning 1 and losing the other is better as we get more points but Palace have one of the best defences in the division and Birmingham are promotion challengers.
In the situation we really needed a win but draws against those 2 sides are nothing to be ashamed of.

CUS Wyken · Mar 12, 2012

CCFC said:
4 points would have been a great return and obviously winning 1 and losing the other is better as we get more points but Palace have one of the best defences in the division and Birmingham are promotion challengers.
In the situation we really needed a win but draws against those 2 sides are nothing to be ashamed of.

I agree they are tough games but if anyone thinks playing the bottom 6 at home is going to be easier then were mistaken.

SkyBlue_Bear83 · Mar 12, 2012

CUS Wyken said:
I agree they are tough games but if anyone thinks playing the bottom 6 at home is going to be easier then were mistaken.

I agree but at least they give me some hope still as we can take points off them whilst increasing our own, rather play the bottom 6 than the top 6.

CUS Wyken · Mar 12, 2012

CCFC said:
I agree but at least they give me some hope still as we can take points off them whilst increasing our own, rather play the bottom 6 than the top 6.

Really though?

Blues have been awful recently. Losing to Forest and drawing Derby. Teams at the top tend to bottle it (Look at West Ham) and teams at the bottom fighting for there lives (Look at Donny)

Four home wins? (1 Viewer)

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