skybluelee
Well-Known Member
1/9 with skybet. Implied probability of 90%.
We will never get another chance like this.
1/9 with skybet. Implied probability of 90%.1/5 to be promoted, seem about right to me.
But worst case scenario we’d still be effectively 8 clear of third. Which is an astonishing gap.Yeah, but tomorrow can be one of those defining moments can't it.
Win and we will be TEN points clear of second place, which would be absolutely huge. Lose and the gap is down to four points.
It's a crucial match. This is why I would be happy to come away with a point. Maintain the gap against your main rival at the moment.
Ten points clear and obviously we would be in wonderland.
I am a little nervous for the game.
True datAt this point, if we messed it up, it would feel like it's never going to happen for us.
Safe, say nuffin.True dat
Getting to the stage where thinking about buying this seasons team pic , framing it & putting it on the wall.
At this point, if we messed it up, it would feel like it's never going to happen for us.
Eccles pulling one back when he did knocked their confidence. From that point on I thought it would be a draw at worst.Weirdly, even on Saturday when we were two down, I expected some sort of reaction. I didn't really feel it was valid to through the toys out the pram. Look what happened.
We are a really fucking good team. Great team spirit, and a management that seems to have full control of what's going on.
I think we have a great chance this season. I'll try to enjoy it the best I can, hopefully everyone else can too.
We’re over performing on the number of goals scored compared to xG, but not over performing on the ‘xG table’ which is based on xG-xGA.On the XG thing, I've seen a few people saying that we're currently over-performing our XG and so statistically can be expected to revert to the mean.
Whilst I don't have the stats (and am clearly too lazy to find them), I wonder how much of our over-performance is due to Torp?
He now has 7 goals and apart from his one against Birmingham (and possibly the free kick against Oxford), I don't think that he'll personally have a very high XG.
In his case is this over-performance from his personal XG a blip, or is this just the fact that he is much better at shooting from the edge of the box than the average player?
Ya which is why I hate seeing posts about what a great league it is and how we will miss it etcAt this point, if we messed it up, it would feel like it's never going to happen for us.
My kids are even starting to get a bit of kudos at school.Ya which is why I hate seeing posts about what a great league it is and how we will miss it etc
We need the premier league. Generation of kids been dreaming about it and that's before we get started on oldies like us
A lot of the over performance is due to the QPR game. An xg of 1.27 resulted in 7 goals. In other games we've been closer to the mark.On the XG thing, I've seen a few people saying that we're currently over-performing our XG and so statistically can be expected to revert to the mean.
Whilst I don't have the stats (and am clearly too lazy to find them), I wonder how much of our over-performance is due to Torp?
He now has 7 goals and apart from his one against Birmingham (and possibly the free kick against Oxford), I don't think that he'll personally have a very high XG.
In his case is this over-performance from his personal XG a blip, or is this just the fact that he is much better at shooting from the edge of the box than the average player?
My Scouse friends are telling me they’re ditching the CL tonight to watch Cov instead. Glory hunting has gone full swingMy kids are even starting to get a bit of kudos at school.
Telling them who they support used to lead to dismissive comments, but now they get "Your boys are smashing it, you'll be in the Prem next year" from the plastic scouse and mancs.
A plastic Gooner nearly choked on his sandwich during lunch when my eldest showed him a photo of herself and Vic from a couple of years ago.
She's now known as 'Gyokeres' by the boys in 6th form and she loves it.
In that game our xGot was something just under 4, which I think is a much better indicator.XG is bollox, Im sure somebody like Christiano Ronaldo would far over perform XG than Kevin Kyle - XG ignores the quality of the player - Better players , better over performance . Also a lot of our over performance was the QPR game where XG was around 1 and we got 7
I mean, if we completely ignore the fact that KKH has an assistant and a goal, then no, he's done absolutely fuck all!!!
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He literally has one of, if not the, best RB in the league ahead of him genius.
The point i was making, is its way too early to judge Brau, just as its too early to judge KKH.I think it’s clear what happened with KKH and MvE wasn’t what was planned. It’s a long season, he’ll get minutes but probably never be a starter ahead of a left footer at LB or a fit MvE. Of course is MvE does his ACL next game he’ll look very useful.
Not yet. Win midweek at Deepdale and I'm there.Just like it on record thst tonight is where I ticked over to believer
Let’s be honest, the first few games were a bit of a write off too!So a full 46 league games now played under Lampard now. 92 points. 2ppg exactly.
Don't forget to adjust for the Brad Collins factor. He played in 12 of those 46.9 in 10 and then 10 in 11 is 57 points in 21 of those games - so 35 points in the other 25 which looks average, but even doing that again, we will be in the hunt
so if we get 35 points in the next 25 we will only be on 75 points with 4 games left (and probably need 10 points from the last 4 games)
I’m old school…that’s a list I didn’t want to see.Let’s be honest, the first few games were a bit of a write off too!
It’s also worth pointing out that we didn’t win an away game after Oxford at the start of March.
Our home form under Lampard has been elite. The CBS is fortress and this season I cannot see us dropping off at home to fuck this up.
We’ve had Stoke, Boro away from home and have Ipswich, PNE, Southampton, Charlton and Blues away in December/New Year. If we get past that unscathed there really isn’t much that’ll stop us in 2026 away from home.
Positive thinking breeds winners, enjoy the ride mate!!Anybody follow the Ajax story last season? Still a long way to go and this can still be lost.
Updated after midweek games. Every other team needs a minimum of 2.07 ppg from here on in to reach 90, the equivalent of a 95 point season.
By comparison we'd need to achieve 1.72 ppg. We've averaged exactly 2 over the last year.
19 teams would need to be tracking at a 100+ season from here to reach 90.
I've added in an additional column to show what's needed to reach 85. All bar the top 5 would need to achieve at least 2 ppg to reach that total.
View attachment 47417
If you take this and think about whether the extrapolated points total is achievable for any team, there's only Ipswich in there that you'd say is realistic. Apart from us obviously.
Love me a spreadsheet...kudosUpdated after midweek games. Every other team needs a minimum of 2.07 ppg from here on in to reach 90, the equivalent of a 95 point season.
By comparison we'd need to achieve 1.72 ppg. We've averaged exactly 2 over the last year.
19 teams would need to be tracking at a 100+ season from here to reach 90.
I've added in an additional column to show what's needed to reach 85. All bar the top 5 would need to achieve at least 2 ppg to reach that total.
View attachment 47417
I'm worried about Wednesday catching us.Updated after midweek games. Every other team needs a minimum of 2.07 ppg from here on in to reach 90, the equivalent of a 95 point season.
By comparison we'd need to achieve 1.72 ppg. We've averaged exactly 2 over the last year.
19 teams would need to be tracking at a 100+ season from here to reach 90.
I've added in an additional column to show what's needed to reach 85. All bar the top 5 would need to achieve at least 2 ppg to reach that total.
View attachment 47417
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