Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Which is what is happening with the non-doms after the closed the “loopholes”.
As a rule of thumb, whatever new taxes are introduced rarely raise the sums they claim.
Do you want to discuss boring politics? (19 Viewers)
- Thread starter mrtrench
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Which is what is happening with the non-doms after the closed the “loopholes”.
As a rule of thumb, whatever new taxes are introduced rarely raise the sums they claim.
SomersetSB
Well-Known Member
I’ve joined Reform, it’s the way forward to get this very left wing so called working class labour party out.
They are clueless!!
They just want your hard earned money, socialism you can keep it!!
I know Dave laughed at my post but i try to be factual, there was 20m claimants of various welfare benefits in 2024 (presume some people claiming multiple benefits so it will be a fair few less than 20m individuals). Plus child benefit (7m families) and pensioners (13m)
There’s obviously duplication in those numbers but as I say, it is probably greater than the adults not receiving some form of benefit.
I’m someone who personally benefited from the welfare system as a kid of a single mum (who also worked full time and had no financial support from my father) so I know its importance. This isn’t an anti benefits rant, just that there is an ever increasing number of the adult population getting something or expecting to and I’m pretty sure that out of that, there will be a decent amount who are getting more than they should
tisza
Well-Known Member
Will be interesting what support they can garner. Early polls seem to have them at 10%. Initial reaction would be how they could impact marginals like Reform did for the Conservatives. Hard to see them having an impact like Reform though. But a headache for the Govt if Corbynite MPs jump ship during this Parliament.
Still think it should be a rule that if an MP "jumps" parties/resigns whip it should trigger an immediate by-election.
mmttww
Well-Known Member
I can't see her and Jezza converting a truckload of people to their cause. Left of centre people are so sh*t at selling themselves and their policies. Is there anyone other than maybe Burnham who's got any kind of gravitas across Labour, Lid Dems, Greens?
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Suspect they won't get far, for a number of reasons.
Firstly there's very few people in politics who aren't self serving so I doubt many others will make the jump, although Zack Polanski has already extending the olive branch so if he wins the Greens leadership election that could be interesting.
Secondly, and importantly, we all know from Corbyn's time as Labour leader the sort of treatment they will get from the media. Certainly won't be never ending appearances on Question Time and nice fluffy interviews.
Finally I feel it's much harder to get a mass of people to support on the left. If you're on the right I think you can generate support with vague statements like Get Brexit Done, shouting about immigration, things being woke etc. Whereas on the left I feel people are more passionate about very specific things and disagreement on one policy area can lose you someones support.
Sultana is my MP and IMO option she has been a great local MP. Very visible in the local community, I don't think I've ever had my MP knock on my door outside of election campaigning before. Also very helpful when I required assistance with issues around my Dads care.
My Mum is as stereotypical a Thatcher loving, Daily Mail reading lifelong tory voter as you can get. She thinks Sultana is great an voted for her at the last election. However I see very little chance of her retaining if she stands here. The left vote will be split and we've never had much past 'the big 3' standing here. Although the Tories have put up Heaven the last couple of times and she is absolutely fucking useless, ever by tory standards. I suspect they will sense a chance to win next time round and drop in a better quality candidate.
mmttww
Well-Known Member
This is what her and Corbyn have going for them along with some policies that folks of all allegiances would be in favour of, but unless they find some unicorn of a strategist, I'll be stunned if they can translate that to something that registers nationally.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
It struck me that if I quit my doctorate and went unemployed, we’d get more childcare support than by continuing. As just one example, that surely cannot be right.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Are there various benefits anymore. Isn’t it just universal credit now? State pension aside?
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
1.8m people get attendance allowance, 1.4m get carers allowance, PIP is 3.5m. Its interesting to look at the changes, number of pension claims increasing, pension credit increasing dramatically, huge increases in bereavement support payments (basically the old widows pension), PIP increasing as DLA tails off, housing benefit decreasing, ESA decreasing, income support and JSA being phased out.
there's 9.9 million people of working age in receipt of some type of benefit in the most recent stats available. but you have to caveat that with the fact that we have record numbers of people in work on benefits, yet nobody seems to be concerned that people in work need that kind of assistance due to poverty wages.
but this is the problem with trying to make a meaningful assessment. how the fuck do you know what reasons people are on universal credit for. so we just default back to immigrants and the work shy on benefits as the cause of all the countries ills.
not sure it really stacks up. most people want to be an active part of society, you can pretty easily establish that by speaking to the people affected but if you don't believe them you can look to UBI trials. strikes me we spend years ignoring experts warning that cuts, in recent times under the umbrella of austerity and balancing the books, are going to have a negative impact. then when those negatives arrive everyone stands around wondering how we ended up in this mess and goes back to blaming the same old people.
fact of the matter if you can't get issues with your physical health treated, if mental health services are decimated, if you have record levels of child poverty and malnutrition and so on and so on its a ticking time bomb for benefits. thats before you even factor in a pandemic and an aging population.
everyone always seems to know people who are living a life of luxury on benefits but when you ask how they are achieving it you get no answer. meanwhile if you look at what you would be entitled to if you lost you job or became ill its pretty much fuck all. You'd struggle to not be on the streets within a couple of months if you didn't have savings to fall back on.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
The state pension is the biggest chunk of the welfare bill and I don’t see an easy solution for that given that people continue to live longer while birth rate and eventually the working age population falls. And that’s already after we have increased the pension age to a level that would incite riots in France
tisza
Well-Known Member
Little chance of being "major" party but capable of attracting significant support amongst certain groups eg 18-24 year olds. Corbyn still more popular than Starmer with some large Trade Unions.
Greens get around 2 million votes and still perceived primarily as a single issue party.
This new group's impact could still be on how they effect Labour and Green vote share.
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
That's the thing, you get scare stories saying the DWP spend 279bn but 124bn of that is pensions! We spend another 32bn on adult social care, which sits outside the DWP payments, and over 50% of that is on pensioners.
The only other 2 areas of DWP payments that are large enough to have any significant impact if changes were made are universal credit, 60bn, but as we've said its hard to assess that when you don't get a breakdown of why people receive it, and disability & carers, 39bn.
I would hope most people would agree that people genuinely in need of that shouldn't have it taken away but that seems to be the route we're going down. Not sure I buy in to the idea that it a piece of piss to get signed off for years on disability and be raking in the cash. Even if you receive both elements at the highest rate, which would mean pretty severe disabilities, it's less than 10K a year.
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
All I could see it possibly doing is splitting the left vote and given how the Tories are fairing giving Reform an actual chance.
However, I think it's far more likely it will die a quiet death and not even register by the next election.
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Would be interesting if Polanski wins and does make some sort of agreement with this new party. Seen reports that attribute a surge in green party membership to his leadership bid.
Wonder how worried Labour are about the unions. It seems Unite are very much behind this new party, at least the Cov branch. But it's hard to imagine they're putting their name to it without it having been cleared higher up but who knows, maybe they have and there will be some fallout.
But there's probably far more chance it fades into the background in the years before a general election.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
So they don't use offshore investments currently but will? How do you know about the existence of such schemes?
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
Burnham isn't popular, not sure where you've got that idea from. Dreadful health secretary and got himself a decent number as GM mayor.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
Quite funny
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
This bit in particular
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
TBH with you it already happens, you just don't pay techbros to create it for you. Labour has long imagined the desires of the electorate.
mmttww
Well-Known Member
Popular within Labour? Don't think he is, don't think it matters here. Just think he's shown a bit of integrity and bite in the way he handled a few bits and doesn't seem like a total chancer. I know that's a low bar but it's politics!
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
I wouldn’t vote for them for starters. They’re making this about themselves rather than the causes they claim it to be.
I do not want another small left wing splinter party. I want Labour to grow some balls and push the progressive policies that can get the country recovering from all the negligence of 2010-24. It starts with the PM having no firm moral compass of his own and being too scared to argue for what is right and put it to the British people.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Seems Zarah should of told Corbyn about them forming and co-leading a new party.
There's just not the numbers for them to win anything outside of Islington North, definitely not in Coventry South.
It just seems the weird behaviour of someone who wasn't going to be allowed the whip again and knows there's no way to win as an independent.
There's just not the numbers for them to win anything outside of Islington North, definitely not in Coventry South.
It just seems the weird behaviour of someone who wasn't going to be allowed the whip again and knows there's no way to win as an independent.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
She should probably have just accepted a stint on Novara media or Joe politics
tisza
Well-Known Member
People said the same about Farage and Reform after Brexit went through.
New group provides a rallying point for those further to the Left. Starmer & Reeve could find themselves facing similar issues to the Welfare Bill where they struggle to get their programmes through.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Show ignored content
Also it's telling that Corbyn actually doesn't seem happy about this and no other MPs are defecting to join her not even people like McDonnell or Abbott. It's all about her and her basically being refused entry back into the PLP.
There's parties to the left of Labour though.
Also it's telling that Corbyn actually doesn't seem happy about this and no other MPs are defecting to join her not even people like McDonnell or Abbott. It's all about her and her basically being refused entry back into the PLP.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
It's just mad that she seems to have not squared it off with Corbyn either. It's an even worse "launch" than Chuka's centrist mob had.
Also as a resident of Cov South I fear she has now lost the cooperation of the local councillors who even though she was suspended still worked and supported her.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
I agree, it reminds me of Umunna’s stunt. Corbyn could run as whatever he wanted and win his seat, she can’t. Even Tories I know in the constituency are planning to vote Labour as they would prefer that to Reform.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
add the potential of this new party and yes you may get a people "holding their nose" and voting.
wonder if she runs again in Cov South? All or if not most of the Change UK mob jumped to new seats for the 2019 GE.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Also as I said earlier it's strange that people who probably can win as independents such as McDonnell or Abbott haven't joined her straight away,
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Think they and others sense she’s high on her own supply and not worth jumping ship for.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Also if she is "resigning" after 14 years then she joined in 2011, the Ed Miliband era which was pretty much like the current party.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
That’s what I’m saying. He’s a campaigner and we haven’t got a campaign. He might be Starmers man but he can’t beat the PLP. Once you become the story in these roles you’re done.