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Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (20 Viewers)

  • Thread starter BackRoomRummermill
  • Start date Feb 23, 2020
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CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,251
Nick said:
Surely if there's a delay with registering deaths then in a few weeks they will be higher as they have just been registered?

This is the thing, it's pointless comparing to other countries and worrying about it.
Click to expand...

I think comparing the measures and what’s worked and what’s not (whilst taking into account the cultures, population etc) is probably a far more useful comparison

Tonys right, NZ have done very well (got a mate and his family out there so chuffed) but very different country to us and many others in Europe (size, connectivity with other nearby nations etc etc)
 

Nick

Administrator
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,252
chiefdave said:
New Zealand closed their borders on 19th March except for returning citizens. Then on 10th April they brought in compulsory 14 day quarantine in a government facility.

According to press reports here we're considering bringing in some restrictions to incoming flights next months.
Click to expand...

Surely we should be putting people into those makeshift hospitals that are empty?
 

Nick

Administrator
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,253
skybluetony176 said:
We were winning 5-0 at halftime and ended up 5-6 losers.
Click to expand...

Robins is a stubborn bastard and should have made a change.
 
Reactions: skybluetony176

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,254
Nick said:
The thing is that stats can easily be manipulated.

For example if Germany (I don't know how they are reporting) are only reporting people who have been confirmed to die of Corona and tested as dead but they are testing every Tom, Dick and Harry then their death rate will be low and recovery high. For example if they tested everybody who had a slight cold symptom whereas if we only tested if they were on life support in hospital then the figures will be massively different on recovert.
Click to expand...

In terms of % of people confirmed with corona dying from it yes.

But in absolute figures of deaths if they're testing loads of people you'd expect them to have a higher number of overall deaths purely because they'd know that people had the virus. Their numbers are lower than ours, which suggests something different has occurred leading to the difference.
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,255
Nick said:
This is the thing, it's pointless comparing to other countries and worrying about it.
Click to expand...
Isn't it sensible to look at other countries? I'd want to know what another country was doing differently to us if there were appearing to have a greater level of success.
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,256
skybluetony176 said:
I think you’re less likely to have it if you arrive now than if you were already here. We are the place that’s riddled with it, despite having a head start on most of the world. Certainly Europe. We’ve fooked it big time. We were winning 5-0 at halftime and ended up 5-6 losers.
Click to expand...

Nice analogy, but youre suggesting this is full time when most scientists are saying this is very early stages ? We don’t know how many waves there could be of this (I’m hoping just one or two but realistically that’s unlikely) and how it will impact nations in future

For example, I’d rather be riddled with it now if a majority of people who’ve had it get immunity (which we don’t know yet) than have a massive wave in autumn/winter. Alternatively if a vaccine is available in weeks (or a few months) or it’s found you don’t get immunity after contagion then I’d rather not be riddled now !
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,257
skybluetony176 said:
I think you’re less likely to have it if you arrive now than if you were already here. We are the place that’s riddled with it, despite having a head start on most of the world. Certainly Europe. We’ve fooked it big time. We were winning 5-0 at halftime and ended up 5-6 losers.
Click to expand...
I’d say more 5-8 despite them being down to 9 men...
 
Reactions: skybluetony176

Nick

Administrator
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,258
chiefdave said:
Isn't it sensible to look at other countries? I'd want to know what another country was doing differently to us if there were appearing to have a greater level of success.
Click to expand...

That depends on if other countries reporting and stats are done the same as ours though?

For example Africa seem to be immune from it. Is their social distancing working?
 

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,259
Just caught some of Boris’ comeback. Many years ago a mate of mine who was a reasonably healthy 29 year old at the time got a nasty case of the flu and ended up in hospital for a week, most of which was on oxygen, he lost best part of 2 stone and it took him a good couple of months to get the weight back on and not look ill. Doesn’t Boris look well having been on the Covid 19 diet. Just saying. Gallows humour and all that.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,260
CCFCSteve said:
Nice analogy, but youre suggesting this is full time when most scientists are saying this is very early stages ? We don’t know how many waves there could be of this (I’m hoping just one or two but realistically that’s unlikely) and how it will impact nations in future
Click to expand...
No one knows how many waves there will be. They can guess but there is no science behind any off the guesses.

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk
 
Reactions: CCFCSteve

Nick

Administrator
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,261
skybluetony176 said:
Just caught some of Boris’ comeback. Many years ago a mate of mine who was a reasonably healthy 29 year old at the time got a nasty case of the flu and ended up in hospital for a week, most of which was on oxygen, he lost best part of 2 stone and it took him a good couple of months to get the weight back on and not look ill. Doesn’t Boris look well having been on the Covid 19 diet. Just saying. Gallows humour and all that.
Click to expand...

2 stone you say? Just off to get coughed on at Walsgrave.

 

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,262
Nick said:
Robins is a stubborn bastard and should have made a change.
Click to expand...
Taxi for Boris.

No plan B
 

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,263
CCFCSteve said:
I think comparing the measures and what’s worked and what’s not (whilst taking into account the cultures, population etc) is probably a far more useful comparison

Tonys right, NZ have done very well (got a mate and his family out there so chuffed) but very different country to us and many others in Europe (size, connectivity with other nearby nations etc etc)
Click to expand...
Politically, socially, mentality.
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,264
Nick said:
Surely we should be putting people into those makeshift hospitals that are empty?
Click to expand...

But they are 'emergency' hospitals - they don't have all the facilities of a major hospital or indeed the workforce. To my knowledge they were an absolute last case for the really sick. Their use was going to be more like 'halfway house' rehabilitation centres for those recovering to free up the beds etc in the hospitals to allow others in need the use of it.

Building them was one of the few bits of preparation I think we got right. Even though we haven't needed them (yet) imagine if we had and just left it until the problem was actually there. It'd be asking the question "why was that emergency capacity not set up earlier?"
 

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,265
Ian1779 said:
I’d say more 5-8 despite them being down to 9 men...
Click to expand...
And having 2 disallowed goals.
 
Reactions: Ian1779

Nick

Administrator
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,266
Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
But they are 'emergency' hospitals - they don't have all the facilities of a major hospital or indeed the workforce. To my knowledge they were an absolute last case for the really sick. Their use was going to be more like 'halfway house' rehabilitation centres for those recovering to free up the beds etc in the hospitals to allow others in need the use of it.

Building them was one of the few bits of preparation I think we got right. Even though we haven't needed them (yet) imagine if we had and just left it until the problem was actually there. It'd be asking the question "why was that emergency capacity not set up earlier?"
Click to expand...

Surely if they were a halfway house they are ideal for people quarantining after coming into the country?
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,267
Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
But they are 'emergency' hospitals - they don't have all the facilities of a major hospital or indeed the workforce. To my knowledge they were an absolute last case for the really sick. Their use was going to be more like 'halfway house' rehabilitation centres for those recovering to free up the beds etc in the hospitals to allow others in need the use of it.

Building them was one of the few bits of preparation I think we got right. Even though we haven't needed them (yet) imagine if we had and just left it until the problem was actually there. It'd be asking the question "why was that emergency capacity not set up earlier?"
Click to expand...
Apart from the london one they are step down hospitals

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk
 

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,268
chiefdave said:
New Zealand closed their borders on 19th March except for returning citizens. Then on 10th April they brought in compulsory 14 day quarantine in a government facility.

According to press reports here we're considering bringing in some restrictions to incoming flights next months.
Click to expand...
I think even before the compulsory quarantine they were expecting people to self isolate for 14 days once they arrived back, symptoms or no symptoms.
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,269
Nick said:
That depends on if other countries reporting and stats are done the same as ours though?

For example Africa seem to be immune from it. Is their social distancing working?
Click to expand...

Africa has much less international travel so less likely to import it from numerous sources (easier track and trace) and often people living in less dense areas as they have more agricultural based economies etc. There may well be other factors (I don't know if something like the climate will help) but when you look at here and the US they are saying that people from BAME backgrounds are being disproportionately affected, so it really doesn't look like it's a DNA thing.
 
Reactions: CCFCSteve and Ian1779

Nick

Administrator
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,270
Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Africa has much less international travel so less likely to import it from numerous sources (easier track and trace) and often people living in less dense areas as they have more agricultural based economies etc. There may well be other factors (I don't know if something like the climate will help) but when you look at here and the US they are saying that people from BAME backgrounds are being disproportionately affected, so it really doesn't look like it's a DNA thing.
Click to expand...

It's more likely they haven't really been tested and people die all the time there so it doesn't get a mention.
 
Reactions: shmmeee

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,271
Nick said:
Surely if they were a halfway house they are ideal for people quarantining after coming into the country?
Click to expand...

I agree with that respect - the lack of testing/isolating travellers is a massive fuck up. But that's not to say the measures put in place haven't been worthwhile. They'd have been much better if we'd had these measures as well but just becuase we made the error with travel doesn't mean we may as well have said 'fuck it, let's just go the whole hog and get the social distancing wrong as well".
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,272
Nick said:
It's more likely they haven't really been tested and people die all the time there so it doesn't get a mention.
Click to expand...

That may well be one of the factors involved along with what I've mentioned (I think someone asked one of the African presidents why they'd had no cases and he said "it's very simple - we have no tests".

But even so if the manner of people dying is different from normal it would get flagged up as being a problem or likely to be an outbreak of this. There could also be dictators keeping things quiet in certain areas and like you say if stuff happens in Africa it largely gets ignored over here.

That's not to say that they may well have a problem with it in the coming months.
 

Skybluefaz

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,273
I see Raab says we're 'winning' still. It's up there with our great 2-6 'win' against Yeovil at home in league two, and me 'winning' the lottery every time I put it on
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,274
fernandopartridge said:
With Johnson back to 'work', it's becoming pretty clear there is a big push to get the economic pawns back to work asap regardless of the risk of death or serious illness. The Torygraph pushing misleading polls stating people want lockdown to end unconditionally, lots of air time given to cranks like Toby Young. Now the mass morgues are in place Plan A can be pursued once again.

I'm not sure if it is just being ignored that we're adding on 4k plus cases per day (and that's just diagnosed ones). I genuinely think we'll go to 100k+ excess deaths from this.
Click to expand...

Yep. When you build a nation to be obsessed with money and wealth the calls for making money will begin way before it's sensible from a health perspective. I'm certain future generations will look back on us as idiots.

Even if the polls are misleading, that's all they are - polls. Just because the public supposedly want something doesn't make it the correct thing to do.

To be fair to Johnson he has at least said he's very wary of lifting lockdown too early, which seems to be a dissenting voice and probably won't go down well with the puppetmasters.

We're nowhere near ready to begin looking at reducing lockdown yet as although the figures do look like they're trending down slightly they're still very high and if we do I can see us suffering terribly from it.

Like others have said it does seem like some people aren't being quite as stringent in their movements/care as they were before. If we reduce lockdown without any testing/cure it could see so many people emerge all at once because they've been cooped up for over a month it could lead to a massive spread. I really fear what may happen over the next month or so and I feel a six-figure death sum is extremely likely.
 

tisza

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,275
Nick said:
So people who die in a care home can't be put down as COVID as a reason?

Are Germany using exactly the same reporting and stats as us in terms of what is a COVID death? (Genuine question and not sarcasm! )
Click to expand...
Apparently not. My neighbour spent 12 years working in Munich hospitals and is touch with former colleagues. Generally the underlying condition is recorded as the cause of death there. (virus apparently seen as speeding up the process, not the cause).
Also Germany not generally testing after death except in unusual circumstances - again it's data that will become available later when, for example, house deaths are compared with previous years data
She says similar happening here in Hungary where possible.
Only going to really find out when it's possible to compare 2020 mortality rate with previous years - but even then will be difficult.
 

Nick

Administrator
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,276
tisza said:
Apparently not. My neighbour spent 12 years working in Munich hospitals and is touch with former colleagues. Generally the underlying condition is recorded as the cause of death there. (virus apparently seen as speeding up the process, not the cause).
Also Germany not generally testing after death except in unusual circumstances - again it's data that will become available later when, for example, house deaths are compared with previous years data
She says similar happening here in Hungary where possible.
Only going to really find out when it's possible to compare 2020 mortality rate with previous years - but even then will be difficult.
Click to expand...

Which is why is Germany are underplaying it and we are overplaying it then the numbers will be different.
 
Reactions: Astute

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,277
Skybluefaz said:
I see Raab says we're 'winning' still. It's up there with our great 2-6 'win' against Yeovil at home in league two, and me 'winning' the lottery every time I put it on
Click to expand...

Although it's being said partly for morale and partly as a govt PR exercise I think they need to be careful about use of terms like that. People are already starting to be more lackadaisical in what they're doing and saying stuff like that is just going to lead to more complacency.

Plus as you say it's winning in a very warped sense. Like cutting your foot and getting gangrene and not getting it looked at, but then saying you did well because you only lost your foot rather than your whole leg. Better decision making could've stopped you losing your foot as well.
 
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,278
tisza said:
Only going to really find out when it's possible to compare 2020 mortality rate with previous years - but even then will be difficult.
Click to expand...
tbh that'll be good enough (with a margin built in, of course) as even non Covid deaths caused by this crisis are still fair for inclusion in the impact of this, in my eyes
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,279
Nick said:
Again, it's just a calculation and an estimate.

Aren't people in carehomes being certified as dying of COVID at all? Is it assuming every care home death is COVID and saying they haven't been counted?

So much of it is about politics, you have Piers Morgan on one hand saying the world is doomed and everybody is going to die and pushing his shite and people like Dom on the other hand trying to give Boris Johnson a reacharound.
Click to expand...
Read the thread he posted ffs
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,280
Nick said:
Which is why is Germany are underplaying it and we are overplaying it then the numbers will be different.
Click to expand...

We aren't overplaying the numbers.
We aren't including care home deaths in the official daily figures and we are recording some deaths from corona as down to the underlying health issue if the deceased had one.
For example there was a woman on the radio who's husband died in hospital in ICU on a ventilator but his death was recorded as heart failure because he had a heart condition.

I am amazed at Germanys fatality rate given they've had more cases than us and suspect their actual figure may be higher.
 

tisza

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,281
Deleted member 5849 said:
tbh that'll be good enough (with a margin built in, of course) as even non Covid deaths caused by this crisis are still fair for inclusion in the impact of this, in my eyes
Click to expand...
cynic in me thinks some will revisit it as increase above usual numbers of deaths per annum. eg" well those with serious underlying conditions were going to die some time in 2020 anyway". With some countries recording that way already some will try to justify things by "dumbing down the numbers" - name Cummings springs to mind for some reason
 

Nick

Administrator
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,282
clint van damme said:
We aren't overplaying the numbers.
We aren't including care home deaths in the official daily figures and we are recording some deaths from corona as down to the underlying health issue if the deceased had one.
For example there was a woman on the radio who's husband died in hospital in ICU on a ventilator but his death was recorded as heart failure because he had a heart condition.

I am amazed at Germanys fatality rate given they've had more cases than us and suspect their actual figure may be higher.
Click to expand...

Thats where you do it like for like.

Are Germany including care homes or just people who die in hospital?
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,283
Nick said:
Thats where you do it like for like.

Are Germany including care homes or just people who die in hospital?
Click to expand...

That's why the figures are difficult to compare country to country but I don't think we're overplayiing them.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,284
fernandopartridge said:
Read the thread he posted ffs
Click to expand...
The headline figure is just so modelling though so nick does have a point

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Apr 27, 2020
  • #19,285
clint van damme said:
We aren't overplaying the numbers.
We aren't including care home deaths in the official daily figures and we are recording some deaths from corona as down to the underlying health issue if the deceased had one.
For example there was a woman on the radio who's husband died in hospital in ICU on a ventilator but his death was recorded as heart failure because he had a heart condition.

I am amazed at Germanys fatality rate given they've had more cases than us and suspect their actual figure may be higher.
Click to expand...
We are also recording deaths that may not be covid-19 as covid-19 deaths so it is hard to tell.

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk
 
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