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Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (15 Viewers)

  • Thread starter BackRoomRummermill
  • Start date Feb 23, 2020
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Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,366
Coronavirus may spread to 80% in UK and kill 1% of infected, but 'probably less'

It didn’t say very worse case scenario it said may be 80%
 

CanadianCCFC

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,367
In North American sports, the NBA season (basketball) was suspended yesterday, the NHL (hockey) season was suspended today and the MLB (baseball) preseason will likely be suspended very soon as well. These decisions are better than playing in empty stadiums imo
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,368
djr8369 said:
Because our growth rate is only a bit slower than there’s. We’re on track for a thousand cases 2 days slower than they were and that’s before you account for numbers of tests.


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Click to expand...

No we are not the first reported cases were not that far apart and Italy reported its first case 6 days before France - also the real rate on Italy is clearly higher chart the deaths to cases in the two countries and see what you conclude
 

Corrado

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,369
Sky Blue Pete said:
Coronavirus may spread to 80% in UK and kill 1% of infected, but 'probably less'

It didn’t say very worse case scenario it said may be 80%
Click to expand...
I don’t know why people are arguing about whether he said 80% will get it or whether he thought 80% was a worst case at the end of the day it’s all a fucking guessing game - no one knows the final number and no one knows what the final mortality rate will be.
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,370
Corrado said:
I don’t know why people are arguing about whether he said 80% will get it or whether he thought 80% was a worst case at the end of the day it’s all a fucking guessing game - no one knows the final number and no one knows what the final mortality rate will be.
Click to expand...
Partly cause it’s a huge amount of people that’s all but I totally agree
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,371
Sky Blue Pete said:
Coronavirus may spread to 80% in UK and kill 1% of infected, but 'probably less'

It didn’t say very worse case scenario it said may be 80%
Click to expand...
He said it was his top level planning. You're done

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk
 
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djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,372
Grendel said:
No we are not the first reported cases were not that far apart and Italy reported its first case 6 days before France - also the real rate on Italy is clearly higher chart the deaths to cases in the two countries and see what you conclude
Click to expand...

The first handful of cases or date of first reported case isn’t really relevant though. Look at the rate of change from dozens to 1000. Very similar growth rate. That’s when the virus is out in the community and being transmitted.

By two countries do you mean France and Italy or U.K. and Italy and what conclusions are you drawing from that?


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Reactions: shmmeee

Winny the Bish

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,373
Just received this at work:

EFL STATEMENT: CORONAVIRUS UPDATE


In light of today’s announcement by the UK Government, EFL matches will continue to take place as normal while the guidance from the relevant authorities remains that there is no medical rationale to close or cancel sporting events at this time.


The EFL, however, will continue to work with Government and relevant stakeholders to further develop contingency plans to ensure the League is best placed to act as and when any potential restrictions may come into force.


Immediately following the announcement by the Prime Minister, EFL Chair Rick Parry held discussions with the FA and Premier League and agreed on a consistent approach ahead of this weekend’s round of fixtures. Matters will be further discussed at a meeting called by European Football’s Governing body, UEFA, on Tuesday 17 March.


The League will continue to liaise with the Government regarding ongoing developments and will continue to work with Clubs to ensure players, staff and supporters are updated and appraised accordingly.


These matters are, of course, subject to change and we will update as appropriate.
 
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Deleted member 4439

Guest
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,374
Sky Blue Pete said:
So 1% of 48000000 is only 480000

so that’s ok SHIT
Click to expand...

Don't be such a drama queen. Nobody has any idea how many are likely to be infected.
 

Tommo1993

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,375
I miss hearing about Brexit. Now it’s all Coronavirus this, Harvey Weinstein that.
 
Reactions: Gynnsthetonic and eastwoodsdustman
D

Deleted member 4439

Guest
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,376
Corrado said:
I don’t know why people are arguing about whether he said 80% will get it or whether he thought 80% was a worst case at the end of the day it’s all a fucking guessing game - no one knows the final number and no one knows what the final mortality rate will be.
Click to expand...

I think there is enough information now to support the mortality figure - what we don't know about is how contagious it is.
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,377
David O'Day said:
He said it was his top level planning. You're done

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You hear top level planning as the very very worse case scenario. I’m not sure that’s what he said but ok. What do you mean I’m done? It’s not a fuckin game
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,378
dubed said:
Don't be such a drama queen. Nobody has any idea how many are likely to be infected.
Click to expand...
Top level planning is 80% he thinks it will be less and hopefully much less. Still significant numbers of people will die earlier than they would have.
 
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djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,379
Sky Blue Pete said:
Top level planning is 80% he thinks it will be less and hopefully much less. Still significant numbers of people will die earlier than they would have.
Click to expand...

I believe his words were “reasonable worse case”.


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Deleted member 4439

Guest
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,380
Sky Blue Pete said:
Top level planning is 80% he thinks it will be less and hopefully much less. Still significant numbers of people will die earlier than they would have.
Click to expand...

Look, China has a pop of 1.4 bn. How many cases (infected, not deaths) to date? 80,793, with the rate reported to be slowing. Sense of proportion required. Over 1k deaths each mth from seasonal flu.
 
Last edited by a moderator: Mar 12, 2020
Reactions: RegTheDonk and RegiswasGod

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,381
Sky Blue Pete said:
You hear top level planning as the very very worse case scenario. I’m not sure that’s what he said but ok. What do you mean I’m done? It’s not a fuckin game
Click to expand...
You're done in this argument. I.e. stop saying they said 80 percent of the uk will get the virus. It was never said. End of

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Flying Fokker

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,382
djr8369 said:
Yes, commonly used to display exponential growth rates.
White Mental Hospital Room Interior 3d Stock Illustration 276804251

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Click to expand...
 
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djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,383

?


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Flying Fokker

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,384
skyblue93 said:
Accrington owner seemingly threatening to not play their next few games:

EDIT: We play them in 16 days.
Click to expand...
That owner will increase the blood pressure of the under 70s fans wanting to see their team play. Plus he must have money to burn.
 

Flying Fokker

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,385
djr8369 said:
?


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Click to expand...
It’s the maths. I like stats but have my limits. Hence padded cell. Not a dig at you!
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,386
Flying Fokker said:
It’s the maths. I like stats but have my limits. Hence padded cell. Not a dig at you!
Click to expand...

Just curious as there seems to be an irrational hatred of log scales in the thread.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Flying Fokker

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,387
Chi square was the tipping point for me.
 

Brylowes

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,388
Sick Boy said:
Well when the country is having to literally choose who lives or dies based upon the resources available, maybe it won't be stupid. That is the reality here now.
Click to expand...
Pretty much like that here normally, bit of a postcode lottery.
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete

mark82

Super Moderator
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,389
Grendel said:
The 14 days is an overestimate based on the fact some have extended to 11 days - 96% is in the 7 day bracket
Click to expand...

Yeah, they explained a bit more after I posted. Essentially if you have symptoms you're already at about day 4. From that point will be contagious for about 4 or 5 days so should be well clear by day 7 of isolation.
 

covmark

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,390
NEWS: EFL Statement - Coronavirus Update

Games going ahead as normal this weekend.

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COVKIDSNEVERQUIT

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,391
Nick said:
I piss where I want and won't use the bar.

Click to expand...

And hold your breath for 90 minutes, so yes you'll be fine .
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,392
Sick Boy said:
Well when the country is having to literally choose who lives or dies based upon the resources available, maybe it won't be stupid. That is the reality here now.
Click to expand...

Yes but if you say it’s exaggerated and make a misguided comparison to the normal flu you might sound smart and reasonable.


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Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,393
djr8369 said:
Yes but if you say it’s exaggerated and make a misguided comparison to the normal flu you might sound smart and reasonable.


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Click to expand...

All estimates of infection are the same regardless of strategy and Italy clearly is either lying about deaths or infection rates
 

RegTheDonk

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,394
dubed said:
Look, China has a pop of 1.4 bn. How many cases (infected, not deaths) to date? 80,793, with the rate reported to be slowing. Sense of proportion required. Over 1k deaths each mth from seasonal flu.
Click to expand...
Yeah I'm scratching my head also over this because as you say, the rate in China is supposed to be falling. Yet 24m has been touted, presumably thats for the UK and not world wide?
 

Brylowes

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,395
BornSlippySkyBlue said:
Johnson looks out of his depth to me. Rabbit in the headlights springs to mind.
Click to expand...
There is a very good reason for that.
 
Reactions: NortonSkyBlue

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,396
dubed said:
Look, China has a pop of 1.4 bn. How many cases (infected, not deaths) to date? 80,793, with the rate reported to be slowing. Sense of proportion required. Over 1k deaths each mth from seasonal flu.
Click to expand...
Course and I could have said may rather than will
 

RegTheDonk

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,397
COVKIDSNEVERQUIT said:
And hold your breath for 90 minutes, so yes you'll be fine .
Click to expand...
I do that most games!
 
Reactions: COVKIDSNEVERQUIT and Sky Blue Pete
M

Magwitch

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,398
Games going ahead as normal this weekend.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]
Good, to quote our glorious leader
“Let’s get it done”
 
Reactions: RegTheDonk and Sky Blue Pete

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,399
It was almost like they were trying to allow a majority of people to get it for a kind of inoculation
 

SkyBlueDom26

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 12, 2020
  • #1,400
China numbers will be complete bollocks, millions will have got it and god knows how many will have died
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete and eastwoodsdustman
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