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Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (47 Viewers)

  • Thread starter BackRoomRummermill
  • Start date Feb 23, 2020
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W

wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 31, 2021
  • #41,686
jordan210 said:
My guess why he was in hospital. As hospitals are super spreaders
Click to expand...
Think he was at home until yesterday and tested positive about a week ago.
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 31, 2021
  • #41,687

Redirect Notice

www.google.co.uk

This is why social distancing won’t change much and large gatherings won’t be possible cause of countries like this
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 31, 2021
  • #41,688
Grendel said:
Misleading surely as the majority of people who are likely to have a risk of dying will be vaccinated. Under 40 and it’s a tiny risk But these death forecasts don’t consider that do they?
Click to expand...
I’m pretty sure that those experts at modelling know all of that my friend and this is accurate based on their knowledge and experience over the last year and combined wisdom and experience of hundreds of years
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 31, 2021
  • #41,689
Sky Blue Pete said:
I’m pretty sure that those experts at modelling know all of that my friend and this is accurate based on their knowledge and experience over the last year and combined wisdom and experience of hundreds of years
Click to expand...

The data suggests not actually as if vaccines are successful you can vaccinate less than 50% of the population and eliminate 99% of deaths.

As for the hundreds of years I’m confused. Less than three hundred years ago the wisdom would have been to stick leaches on you
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 31, 2021
  • #41,690
Grendel said:
The data suggests not actually as if vaccines are successful you can vaccinate less than 50% of the population and eliminate 99% of deaths.

As for the hundreds of years I’m confused. Less than three hundred years ago the wisdom would have been to stick leaches on you
Click to expand...
Combined experience in mathematical modelling. Are you an expert I hadn’t realised. Sorry! Have you completed the same data analysis as the university of warwick modellers?
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 31, 2021
  • #41,691
They’ve done quite a few of these Grendel and been quite good at it.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 31, 2021
  • #41,692
Sky Blue Pete said:
Combined experience in mathematical modelling. Are you an expert I hadn’t realised. Sorry! Have you completed the same data analysis as the university of warwick modellers?
Click to expand...

I haven’t the expertise of Neil Ferguson whose expertise the government followed as without his expertise in modelling we could have reached 20,000 deaths by the time the virus had gone.

the assumptions are based purely on effacy rates

You seem rather agitated so I’ll leave it there
 

hill83

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 31, 2021
  • #41,693
Grendel said:
You seem rather agitated so I’ll leave it there
Click to expand...

Job done then. Made up for you.
 
Reactions: PVA

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 31, 2021
  • #41,694
hill83 said:
Job done then. Made up for you.
Click to expand...

Im not trying to be agente provocateur I’m just not sure what the point is.

if it’s seriously suggesting locking down gatherings for 12 months with a U.K. vaccine quality by then of 5 times the entire population it’s absurd in terms of practicality.
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 31, 2021
  • #41,695
Grendel said:
I haven’t the expertise of Neil Ferguson whose expertise the government followed as without his expertise in modelling we could have reached 20,000 deaths by the time the virus had gone.

the assumptions are based purely on effacy rates

You seem rather agitated so I’ll leave it there
Click to expand...
It’s not neil Ferguson its friends who work their balls off to help us so sharing it for interest. I’m only frustrated that you dismiss others expertise so readily for no reason that I can understand
 
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • Jan 31, 2021
  • #41,696
Grendel said:
Under 40 and it’s a tiny risk
Click to expand...
How about the 39.5 yos?
 

Sky_Blue_Daz

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 31, 2021
  • #41,697
I’ve been out working with district nurses for the last 3 weeks . Got a phone call from my manager Friday morning telling me I had to go for a covid test due to several colleagues and patients showing symptoms. Between The phonecall Friday morning and getting the test Friday afternoon 8 other staff members tested positive. Thankfully mine came back negative , Im due my 2 vaccine jab in April
 
Reactions: derbyskyblue and Otis

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 31, 2021
  • #41,698
Sky_Blue_Daz said:
I’ve been out working with district nurses for the last 3 weeks . Got a phone call from my manager Friday morning telling me I had to go for a covid test due to several colleagues and patients showing symptoms. Between The phonecall Friday morning and getting the test Friday afternoon 8 other staff members tested positive. Thankfully mine came back negative , Im due my 2 vaccine jab in April
Click to expand...

Bloody hell. Least you were negative mate
 
Reactions: Sky_Blue_Daz
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 31, 2021
  • #41,699
Sky Blue Pete said:
Combined experience in mathematical modelling. Are you an expert I hadn’t realised. Sorry! Have you completed the same data analysis as the university of warwick modellers?
Click to expand...

It does confuse me somewhat though Pete as approximately 99% of the hospitalisations come from the top 9 groups being vaccinated?
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 31, 2021
  • #41,700
Brighton Sky Blue said:
It does confuse me somewhat though Pete as approximately 99% of the hospitalisations come from the top 9 groups being vaccinated?
Click to expand...
I’m trying to find the actual research to share rather than the newspaper story. It’s at different levels of efficacy isnt it
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 31, 2021
  • #41,701
Sky Blue Pete said:
I’m trying to find the actual research to share rather than the newspaper story. It’s at different levels of efficacy isnt it
Click to expand...

Key statement from the paper's conclusion I think:

' A number of key vaccine parameters within the model are therefore based on parsimonious assumptions, and we identify the following three issues that require additional experimental data to refine model assumptions.

Firstly, as elucidated throughout this paper determining whether the vaccine blocks infection is key for the development of herd immunity and hence the role of vaccination in the long-term control of COVID-19. There is also the potential for the vaccine to further reduce viral shedding from vaccinated individuals, hence reducing onward transmission, but this is likely to be difficult to measure.

Secondly, we have assumed that efficacy against disease applies equally across the entire spectrum of disease, however if the vaccine has differential protection against the most severe disease this will impact our predictions for hospital admissions and deaths.

Finally, we expect efficacy to vary with age and between risk groups; incorporating such heterogeneity into models is key for more robust predictions. '
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 31, 2021
  • #41,702
The UoW paper is here: Vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: When can the UK relax about COVID-19? (medrxiv.org)

A recent Israeli paper showing approximately 50% efficacy in preventing infection 2 weeks after the first Pfizer dose in around 500,000 patients: 50625865 (medrxiv.org)
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • #41,703
I’m
Sky Blue Pete said:
It’s not neil Ferguson its friends who work their balls off to help us so sharing it for interest. I’m only frustrated that you dismiss others expertise so readily for no reason that I can understand
Click to expand...

Jealousy mostly. He’s been stuck doing marketing for a third tier car brand all his life while these guys are doing things he can’t comprehend.

The fact he’s hung up on Ferguson tells you all you need to know. He’s got the data understanding of a German tabloid.
 
Reactions: PVA and Grendel
W

wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • #41,704
Thought that interview on TV over the weekend with the guy who was flown out of Wuhan with the 80 odd other people was intriguing ,was it yesterday ?

One year on from their evacuation.
Either suggesting it was a publicity stunt,or that they knew just what was coming, or that they made a balls of it .
Reckoned he'd have preferred to have been left in Wuhan .
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • #41,705
wingy said:
Thought that interview on TV over the weekend with the guy who was flown out of Wuhan with the 80 odd other people was intriguing ,was it yesterday ?

One year on from their evacuation.
Either suggesting it was a publicity stunt,or that they knew just what was coming, or that they made a balls of it was.
Reckoned he'd have preferred to have been left in Wuhan .
Click to expand...
54 days was interesting about the start. Wasn’t too much China bashing or sensationalist about it all

Next one is on today I think
 
Reactions: wingy

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • #41,706
UK has secured supply of the vaccine which is to be made in Scotland up until 2025.

Think thats a strong indicator that vaaccinations are going to be needed annually
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • #41,707
clint van damme said:
UK has secured supply of the vaccine which is to be made in Scotland up until 2025.

Think thats a strong indicator that vaaccinations are going to be needed annually
Click to expand...
Even if not makes sense to start planning now as if it will be needed. Last thing we need is to get over this, have a few months of 'normal' and then be back to square one again.
 
Reactions: clint van damme and Sky Blue Pete

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • #41,708
Not sure if I heard right that 20% of care home assistants have passed on getting the vaccine. Strange
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • #41,709
Sky Blue Pete said:
Not sure if I heard right that 20% of care home assistants have passed on getting the vaccine. Strange
Click to expand...

Not at all surprised. They’ll all be Karen’s on FB posting about fluoride in drinking water and how were harming the immune system by wearing masks.
 

Brylowes

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • #41,710
Just reported on the politics show, concerning the South African variant of which 77 cases were found in the Surrey area last week, apparently in 2 of the cases they can’t find any possible link to SA.
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • #41,711
clint van damme said:
UK has secured supply of the vaccine which is to be made in Scotland up until 2025.

Think thats a strong indicator that vaaccinations are going to be needed annually
Click to expand...

That and / or production for the rest of the world is intended
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • #41,712
shmmeee said:
Not at all surprised. They’ll all be Karen’s on FB posting about fluoride in drinking water and how were harming the immune system by wearing masks.
Click to expand...

Or they're from ethnic minority groups who seem to be more vaccine sceptic than your average Karen. I am doing a project at the minute to get Remote Monitoring software into Care Homes and the commissioners suggested the above to me,
 
Reactions: shmmeee

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • #41,713
Bit of detail

Covid-19: London care home staff share concerns over vaccine

A number of London care home workers say they are hesitant about receiving the Covid-19 vaccine.
www.bbc.co.uk
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • #41,714
fernandopartridge said:
Or they're from ethnic minority groups who seem to be more vaccine sceptic than your average Karen. I am doing a project at the minute to get Remote Monitoring software into Care Homes and the commissioners suggested the above to me,
Click to expand...

Yeah that too. Low income both BAME and white British have real anti-vax issues. And both large parts of care work workforce. Same in all low paid healthcare jobs from what I can tell.

The missus is always coming home with stories of the mental rumours she hears at UHCW from non-clinical staff.
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • #41,715
One of the other problems is that care home residents are being infected post vaccination, so the workers no doubt add two and two to make five, ignoring that the resident may have already been infected or been infected before the vaccine starts to take effect.
 
Reactions: Deleted member 5849

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • #41,716
shmmeee said:
I’m

Jealousy mostly. He’s been stuck doing marketing for a third tier car brand all his life while these guys are doing things he can’t comprehend.

The fact he’s hung up on Ferguson tells you all you need to know. He’s got the data understanding of a German tabloid.
Click to expand...

I've not heard driving a minicab called "marketing" before
 
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • #41,717
fernandopartridge said:
One of the other problems is that care home residents are being infected post vaccination, so the workers no doubt add two and two to make five, ignoring that the resident may have already been infected or been infected before the vaccine starts to take effect.
Click to expand...
And that it's inevitable some will get infected, even after vaccinating.

If we can suppress it so it's not so lethal, and doesn't travel around the country so vigorously, it buys us time for anti-virals / better treatments anyway. That's surely the role of a vaccine as much as anything.
 
Reactions: clint van damme and CCFCSteve

hill83

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • #41,718
shmmeee said:
Not at all surprised. They’ll all be Karen’s on FB posting about fluoride in drinking water and how were harming the immune system by wearing masks.
Click to expand...


fernandopartridge said:
Or they're from ethnic minority groups who seem to be more vaccine sceptic than your average Karen. I am doing a project at the minute to get Remote Monitoring software into Care Homes and the commissioners suggested the above to me,
Click to expand...

It’s ridiculous. Should be take the jab or lose your job.
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • #41,719
hill83 said:
It’s ridiculous. Should be take the jab or lose your job.
Click to expand...

This thought crossed my mind but it would be a civil liberties minefield
 

hill83

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • #41,720
clint van damme said:
This thought crossed my mind but it would be a civil liberties minefield
Click to expand...

Its a job. Feel free to not take it and not have the job.
 
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