I’ve obviously no idea but I get the impression, that Ipswich thought they’d piss the league this year; have had moments where they’ve looked great eg against us at home, and have then rested on their laurels again.
That's a very good point.
I'd agree with that, but 150 years of such happenstance can set views you know?
that cannot be right.At nearly 2am yes
Look, it's been said quite a few times on here that Opta run their model 10,000 times and then report the percentage of simulations where we end up promoted. Their currently quoted "100.00%" figure clearly shows that isn't the case.
It seems much more like Mucca says - they've worked out how many points their model thinks we're likely to get, and because no other team can get that many, we are 100% promoted. That's very different, and pretty deceptive - they think we'll get the required points, therefore we are already there.
It explains why even before Friday's games Opta predicted less than a 1 in 1600 chance that we wouldn't go up. It was clearly nonsense, so out of interest I asked Labroke's (offering 1-1000 ON for promotion on their website) to give me odds for not getting promoted. I never bet against CCFC, but if they'd come back with several hundred to one, I'd have been sorely tempted. They quoted me 16-1, that's SIXTEEN to one! 100 times different from Opta's implied odds, and far more realistic IMO. Personally I think before Friday we were around 95% likely to do it (not 99.94%), and now we are into near-certainty territory.
Sheff Utd raided them for the wrong CB. Cooper is much more defensively robust.
Lampard took a team that finished 9th, in a relegation battle prior to him joining and turned us into a well oiled machine. He managed us out of a well documented blip its not all been smooth sailing, I think he’s done much better than Edwards/Hellberg in terms of turning a team around, Jakirovic has equally done a good job but FL deserves the recognition I thinkNah, we're more likely to give you 6 points than Hull.
Though I could see a case for Jakirovic being given manager of the season. You'll win the league this year, Frank will be lauded and rightly so as he has done a fantastic job, though he was essentially taking over a playoffs side and turning them into title winners or a 4 league place rise, though this doesn't tell the story of the points improvement, playing style, etc..
Edwards/Hellberg and Neil have both taken an upper mid-table side and made them autos contenders, so about the same level of improvement there, 6 places or so up the league.
What Jakirovic has done is taken a side who survived relegation last year by the skin of their teeth, without a pot to piss in and with an embargo over them anyway into a playoffs side, which to be fair is phenomenal.
In a way it's like saying who would be viewed to have done a better job next year; Liam Rosenior winning the title with Chelsea, Silva and Moyes having Everton and Fulham finish in the top 4 or the Hammers having survived on the final day of this season parting ways with Santo and the new guy having them finish 5th and get the extra CL place?
i don't know how the bloody system works, I just know that before Friday the team at Ladbrokes were being realistic and Opta.... weren't, not by a country mile.
it's clearly a joke
I'm not disagreeing with you with that point. In terms of the complete job Lampard has done at Coventry City, he'd get my vote for an award for the best achievements of the last season and a half. No question.
The Pareto principle. (80 /20 rule)
As G has pointed out look at wages as well, we have one of the lowest wage bills in the league
I know guy who will do you a good deal, drinks on the canal.Not forgetting how much it will cost.
They may fall into the same trap we did in 23/24, albeit they have a stronger squad than we did back then.
95-96 points was my own ‘projection’ which is just the running averages of our home/away form. 7 home points and 5 away points from here is probable.
It works on simulating the remaining games. The 100% just means that we go up in all of their simulations. It's why it alters occasionally despite no other games being played.
Do we get to say:
Buy a pop up tent and stay in the location, need to arrange the game's in blocks of 3 over the week.
At this stage of the season, to miss out on automatic promotion we’d need to not win another game. Given that our next 2 home games are against Sheffield Wednesday and Pompey, those two games alone should take us to 89 points and more than Boro’s max points. 91 guarantees promotion as of today and that’s assuming Millwall and Ipswich don’t drop anymore points which is unlikely.
There must be something about Neil’s tactics that gets the most out of Cooper and most of their team to be fair. That podcaster who occasionally posts on here did call in pre-season so fair play - I scoffed at the prediction putting them so high and ahead of us. That’s what offended me personally.
